Next Valencian parliamentary election

Next Valencian parliamentary election

On or before 23 July 2019

All 99 seats in the Valencian Courts 50 seats needed for a majority Opinion polls   Leader Isabel Bonig Ximo Puig Mònica Oltra Party PPCV PSPV-PSOE Compromís Leader since 28 July 2015 31 March 2012 31 January 2015 Last election 31 seats, 26.6% 23 seats, 20.6% 19 seats, 18.5% Current seats 31 23 19 Seats needed 19 27 31   Leader Carolina Punset Antonio Montiel Party C's Podemos Leader since 2 February 2015 14 February 2015 Last election 13 seats, 12.5% 13 seats, 11.4% Current seats 13 13 Seats needed 37 37

Incumbent President Ximo Puig PSPV-PSOE

The next Valencian parliamentary election will be held no later than Tuesday, 23 July 2019, to elect the 10th democratically-elected Valencian Courts, the regional legislature of the Spanish autonomous community of Valencia. At stake will be all 99 seats in the Courts.

The election will be held after the first regional left-wing government in two decades came to power as a result of the 2015 election, where the People's Party of the Valencian Community (PPCV) suffered an spectacular collapse of popular support.

Electoral system

The number of seats in the Valencian Courts is set to a fixed-number of 99. All Courts members are elected in 3 multi-member districts, corresponding to the Valencian Community's three provinces, using the D'Hondt method and a closed-list proportional representation system. Each district is entitled to an initial minimum of 20 seats, with the remaining 39 seats allocated among the three provinces in proportion to their populations, on the required condition that the number of inhabitants per seat in each district does not exceed 3 times those of any other. For the upcoming election, seats are distributed as follows: Alicante (35), Castellon (24) and Valencia (40).

Voting is on the basis of universal suffrage in a secret ballot. Only lists polling above 5% of valid votes in all of the community (which include blank ballots—for none of the above) are entitled to enter the seat distribution. This means that in the case a list polls above 5% in one or more of the districts but below 5% in the community totals, it will remain outside of the seat apportionment.^[1]

Latest possible date

The next general election cannot be held later than Sunday 23 July 2019. This date is determined as follows:

Law	Requirement	Comments
Valencian Statute of Autonomy: Article 23.4[2]	The Courts are elected for four years. The mandate of the deputies ends four years after election (...).	The 2015 election was held on 24 May 2015. Four years after 24 May 2015 is 24 May 2019.
Valencian Statute of Autonomy: Article 23.4[2]	The dissolution and the calling for new elections to the Courts will be made through decree of the President of the Generalitat Valenciana
Electoral Law: Article 14.2.c)[1]	The day of the vote, to be held within a period not less than 54 days, and not more than 60 days from the date of the publication of the election call decree.	60 days after 24 May 2019 is 23 July 2019.

Background

The 2015 regional election had resulted in the People's Party of the Valencian Community (PPCV) expulsion from the regional government after a 20-year uninterrupted rule. Amid a string of corruption scandals that kept shocking the party and brought down many of its historical leaders and icons, apparently involved in the scandals, the PP found itself leaderless and in a precarious situation.

'Operation Taula', a major police operation in Valencia that took place on 26 January 2016, resulted in the arrest of several former and current high-ranking members from the regional PP branch, as a consequence of the ongoing investigation on the PP's corruption in the region during its time in government.^[3][4] Judicial investigation also pointed to former long-time Mayor of Valencia Rita Barberá as a participant in the scandal; her arrest or imputation only being prevented by the fact she had legal protection as an incumbent senator.^[5] A few days later, on 1 February, all PP city councillors in the city of Valencia were charged for a possible money laundering offense, including new local party leader Alfonso Novo, as well as most members of Barberá's late government.^[6]

Voices within the Valencian PP pointed to the party's refoundation in the region as a regionalist party, in order to try to distance itself as much as possible from the PPCV's past. Interim party leader Isabel Bonig claimed for an extraordinary party congress to be held to rethink the structure and future of the party in the Valencian Community, emphazising its Valencian roots.^[7]

Opinion polls

Vote estimations

Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty.

Polling Firm/Link	Last Date of Polling								Margin of Error	Sample Size	Lead
General Election	December 20, 2015	31.3	19.8	w.	15.8	w.	4.2	25.1			6.2
Invest Group	October 2, 2015	25.7	24.6	19.6	16.1	7.5			±3.0 pp	1,100	1.1
Regional Election	May 24, 2015	26.6	20.6	18.4	12.5	11.4	4.3				6.0

Parliamentary seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 50 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Valencian Courts.

50 seats needed for majority

Polling Firm/Link	Last Date of Polling
General Election	December 20, 2015	(34)	(22)	w.	(17)	w.	(0)	(26)
Invest Group	October 2, 2015	27	26	21	17	8	0
Regional Election	May 24, 2015	31	23	19	13	13	0

References

1. "Law 1/1987, of 31 March, Valencian electoral".
2. "Statute of Autonomy of the Valencian Community; Title III. The Generalitat, Chapter II. The Courts.". noticias.juridicas.com. Retrieved 2015-10-09.
3. "24 arrested in an anti-corruption operation centered in Valencia" (in Spanish). El País. 2016-01-26.
4. "Arrested former PPCV President, Alfonso Rus, in corruption and money laundering charges" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2016-01-26.
5. "Corruption investigation in Valencia points to Rita Barberá" (in Spanish). El País. 2016-01-26.
6. "Judge charges all PP city councillors for money laundering of Barberá's illegal funds" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2016-02-01.
7. "The Valencian PP already plans on its refoundation" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2016-02-03.