Galician parliamentary election, 2012

Galician parliamentary election, 2012

21 October 2012

All 75 seats in the Parliament of Galicia 38 seats needed for a majority Opinion polls Registered 2,697,717 1.9% Turnout 1,481,379 (54.9%) 9.5 pp   First party Second party   Leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo Pachi Vázquez Party PP PSdeG-PSOE Leader since 15 January 2006 25 April 2009 Last election 38 seats, 46.7% 25 seats, 31.0% Seats won 41 18 Seat change 3 7 Popular vote 661,281 297,584 Percentage 45.8% 20.6% Swing 0.9 pp 10.4 pp   Third party Fourth party   Leader Xosé Manuel Beiras Francisco Jorquera Party AGE BNG Leader since 4 September 2012 15 January 2012 Last election 0 seats, 1.0%[lower-alpha 1] 12 seats, 16.0% Seats won 9 7 Seat change 9 5 Popular vote 200,828 146,027 Percentage 13.9% 10.1% Swing 12.9 pp 5.9 pp

President before election Alberto Núñez Feijóo PP Elected President Alberto Núñez Feijóo PP

The 2012 Galician parliamentary election was held on Sunday, 21 October 2012, to elect the 9th Parliament of Galicia, the regional legislature of the Spanish autonomous community of Galicia. At stake were all 75 seats in the Parliament, determining the President of the Xunta of Galicia. This was a snap election held five months before scheduled, in order to coincide with the 2012 Basque election, which had also been called ahead of schedule by Lehendakari Patxi López. New elections were not due until March 2013.

Incumbent President Alberto Núñez Feijóo stood for re-election for a 2nd consecutive term in office, running for the People's Party (PP). For the Socialist Party of Galicia (PSdeG-PSOE) ran its Secretary-General Pachi Vázquez. Former congressman Francisco Jorquera ran for the left-wing Galician Nationalist Bloc (BNG), while former BNG leader Xosé Manuel Beiras, stood for Galician Left Alternative (AGE), a newly formed left-wing alliance between United Left and Anova, Beiras' split party from BNG.

The election resulted in a surprise result for both Núñez Feijóo, who enlarged his absolute majority from 38 and 41 seats, and Beiras' coalition AGE, which won 200,000 votes and 14% of the share, scoring in third position. In contrast, the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party obtained one of the worst results in the history of the party in Galicia. All in all, the enlarged PP majority came as a result of the enormous fragmentation of the left vote within several parties, as Feijóo's party lost almost 130,000 votes from 2009.

Electoral system

The 75 members of the Parliament of Galicia were elected in 4 multi-member districts, corresponding to Galicia's four provinces, using the D'Hondt method and a closed-list proportional representation. Each district was entitled to an initial minimum of 10 seats, with the remaining 35 seats being allocated among the four provinces in proportion to their populations. For the 2012 election, seats were distributed as follows: Corunna (24), Lugo (15), Ourense (14) and Pontevedra (22).

Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage in a secret ballot. Only lists polling above 5% of the total vote in each district (which includes blank ballots—for none of the above) were entitled to enter the seat distribution.^[1]

Background

The election was held amid a climate of falling popularity in Mariano Rajoy's government, with the electoral campaign being heavily marked by the austerity measures approved by the People's Party government. In July 2012, a 65 billion euros worth spending cut and a VAT rise from 18% to 21% was passed; such measures being heavily criticised because they were a breach of a key election promise.^[2][3] The PP vote share immediately plummeted in opinion polls from 40% to 34%. This raised fears within Núñez Feijóo's regional government about the possibility of losing the party's absolute majority in the Galician Parliament election scheduled for early 2013.^[4]

On 21 August 2012, Basque premier Patxi López announced that he was bringing forward the Basque election date to 21 October 2012, after the People's Party had announced that it was withdrawing its support to López' Socialist government in the Basque Country.^[5] As a result, President Feijóo announced that he was calling the election earlier in order for it to coincide with the Basque election.^[6]

Opinion polls

Vote

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. However, if such date is unknown, the date of publication will be given instead.

Date	Polling Firm/Source	PP	PSdeG	BNG	UPyD	IU	SCD	CxG	Anova	AGE	Oth.	Lead
21 Oct 2012	Regional Election	45.8	20.6	10.1	1.5	w.AGE	1.1	1.0	w.AGE	13.9	6.0	25.2
Exit polls
14 Oct	Ipsos-Eco	46.4	25.8	13.3	2.5	w.AGE	1.0	1.7	w.AGE	4.3	5.0	20.6
10–13 Oct	Sondaxe	47.6	24.2	13.8		w.AGE			w.AGE	9.7	4.7	23.4
1–13 Oct	NC-Report[lower-alpha 2]	44.3	26.6	13.7		w.AGE			w.AGE	6.1	9.3	17.7
8–11 Oct	Sigma-2	50.5	21.4	13.1		w.AGE	1.8		w.AGE	8.7	4.5	29.1
3–10 Oct	My Word	42.2	21.5	13.9	3.1	w.AGE	1.6	1.8	w.AGE	7.8	8.1	20.7
7 Oct	NC-Report[lower-alpha 2]	41.7	26.9	12.7		w.AGE			w.AGE		18.7	14.8
1–4 Oct	DYM[lower-alpha 2]	48.2	21.9	13.1		w.AGE		1.8	w.AGE	10.7	4.3	26.3
30 Sep	NC-Report[lower-alpha 2]	42.0	25.2	11.0		w.AGE			w.AGE		21.8	16.8
8–25 Sep	CIS	44.1	28.2	15.6	1.0	w.AGE			w.AGE	4.6	6.5	15.9
23 Sep	NC-Report[lower-alpha 2]	42.7	25.7	10.7		w.AGE			w.AGE		20.9	17.0
17–23 Sep	Low-Cost	45.1	28.5	12.0	2.3	w.AGE			w.AGE	6.5	5.6	16.6
16 Sep	NC-Report[lower-alpha 2]	40.3	27.3	11.5		w.AGE			w.AGE		20.9	13.0
9 Sep	NC-Report[lower-alpha 2]	38.8	26.9	10.7		w.AGE			w.AGE		23.6	11.9
31 Aug–5 Sep	Sondaxe	43.4	26.4	11.5		w.AGE			w.AGE	6.1	12.6	17.0
28 Aug–1 Sep	NC-Report[lower-alpha 2]	39.9	27.9	11.7	4.0	4.3		3.0	4.9		4.3	12.0
12–14 Apr	Sondaxe	46.1	26.9	13.3		2.9					10.8	19.2
2012
20 Nov 2011	General Election	52.5	27.8	11.2	1.2	4.1	N/A				3.2	24.7
28 Feb	Sondaxe	49.2	24.8	14.5							11.5	24.4
2011
19–30 Nov	Sondaxe	48.7	27.1	14.9							9.3	21.6
2010
7 Jun 2009	EP Election	50.0	35.3	9.1	1.2	1.3					3.1	14.7
1 Mar 2009	Regional Election	46.7	31.0	16.0	1.4	1.0					3.9	15.7

Seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 38 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Galicia.

38 seats needed for majority

Date	Polling Firm/Source	PP	PSdeG	BNG	UPyD	IU	SCD	CxG	Anova	AGE	Others
21 Oct 2012	Regional Election	41	18	7	0	w.AGE	0	0	w.AGE	9	0
21 Oct	Ipsos-Eco	39−42	18−20	7−8	0	w.AGE	0	0	w.AGE	8−10	0
21 Oct	Sondaxe	39	20	8	0	w.AGE	0	0	w.AGE	8	0
Exit polls
15 Oct	PP	37	23	11	0	w.AGE	2	0	w.AGE	2	0
15 Oct	ASCA	44	16−17	8−9	0	w.AGE	0	0	w.AGE	5−6	0
15 Oct	Infortécnica	36−38	20−22	12−14	0	w.AGE	0−1	0−1	w.AGE	2−4	0
14 Oct	Ipsos-Eco	37−41	22−24	9−11	0	w.AGE	0	0	w.AGE	3−4	0
10–13 Oct	Sondaxe	39	21	10	0	w.AGE	0	0	w.AGE	5	0
1–13 Oct	NC-Report	38−39	23	11	0	w.AGE	0	0	w.AGE	2−3	0
9–12 Oct	Sondaxe	39	21	10	0	w.AGE	0	0	w.AGE	5	0
8–11 Oct	Sondaxe	41	21	9	0	w.AGE	0	0	w.AGE	4	0
8–11 Oct	Sigma-2	41−44	17−19	9	0	w.AGE	0	0	w.AGE	5−6	0
7–10 Oct	Sondaxe	40	21	9	0	w.AGE	0	0	w.AGE	5	0
3–10 Oct	My Word	37−38	19−20	11−12	0	w.AGE	0	0	w.AGE	6−7	0
6–9 Oct	Sondaxe	40	22	10	0	w.AGE	0	0	w.AGE	3	0
5–8 Oct	Sondaxe	41	20	11	0	w.AGE	0	0	w.AGE	3	0
4–7 Oct	Sondaxe	39	21	11	0	w.AGE	0	0	w.AGE	4	0
6 Oct	PSdeG	37	23	9−10	0	w.AGE	0	0	w.AGE	5−6	0
3–6 Oct	Sondaxe	39	23	12	0	w.AGE	0	0	w.AGE	1	0
2–5 Oct	Sondaxe	39	22	12	0	w.AGE	0	0	w.AGE	2	0
1–4 Oct	DYM	40−41	18−19	8	0	w.AGE	0	1	w.AGE	7	0
3 Oct	PSdeG	37	25	9−10	0	w.AGE	0	0	w.AGE	3−4	0
8–25 Sep	CIS	38	23−24	12−13	0	w.AGE	0	0	w.AGE	1	0
23 Sep	NC-Report	37−39	23−25	7−8	0−2	w.AGE	0	1−2	w.AGE	2−4	0
17–23 Sep	Low-Cost	39−41	24	8−9	0	w.AGE	0	0	w.AGE	3−4	0
16 Sep	NC-Report	36−38	24−26	9−10	0−1	w.AGE	0	0	w.AGE	3	0
9 Sep	NC-Report	35−37	24−26	9−10	0−2	w.AGE	0	0	w.AGE	3	0
31 Aug–5 Sep	Sondaxe	39	24	9	0	w.AGE	0	0	w.AGE	3	0
28 Aug–1 Sep	NC-Report	34−37	24−25	10	0−2	1−2	0	0	2	Did not exist	0
2 Jul	ASCA	35−36	23−24	7	0−1	1−2	0	7			0
10 May	ASCA	36−38	23	7	0−1	0−1	0	7			0
12–14 Apr	Sondaxe	41	24	10	0	0	0				0
2012
20 Nov 2011	General Election	(44)	(23)	(8)	(0)	(0)	N/A				(0)
28 Feb	Sondaxe	42	21−22	11−12	0	0					0
2011
19–30 Nov	Sondaxe	40	23	12	0	0					0
2010
7 Jun 2009	EP Election	(42)	(27)	(6)	(0)	(0)					(0)
1 Mar 2009	Regional Election	38	25	12	0	0					0

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 21 October 2012 Galician Parliament election results →

Party		Vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Won	+/−
	People's Party (PP)	661,281	45.80	0.88	41	3
	Socialist Party of Galicia (PSdeG-PSOE)	297,584	20.61	10.41	18	7
	Galician Left Alternative (AGE)[lower-alpha 1]	200,828	13.91	12.94	9	9
	Galician Nationalist Bloc (BNG)	146,027	10.11	5.90	7	5
	Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)	21,335	1.48	0.07	0	±0
	Blank Seats (Eb)	17,141	1.19	New	0	±0
	Civil Society and Democracy (SCD)	15,990	1.11	New	0	±0
	Commitment for Galicia (CxG)	14,586	1.01	New	0	±0
	Animalist Party Against Mistreatment to Animals (PACMA)	8,041	0.56	New	0	±0
	Ourensan Democracy (DO)	4,245	0.29	0.23	0	±0
	Land Party (PT)	3,131	0.22	New	0	±0
	Communists of Galicia (CdG)	1,664	0.12	New	0	±0
	Communist Unification of Spain (UCE)	1,556	0.11	New	0	±0
	Pirates of Galicia (Pirata.gal)	1,551	0.11	New	0	±0
	Liberal Democratic Centre (CDL)	1,455	0.10	New	0	±0

Parties with less than 0.1% of the vote		8,985	0.62	–	0	±0
	Spanish Falange of the JONS (FE-JONS)	1,352	0.09	0.05	0	±0
	Humanist Party (PH)	1,340	0.09	0.02	0	±0
	For a Fairer World (PUM+J)	1,329	0.09	0.12	0	±0
	Corunese Union (UC)	1,172	0.08	New	0	±0
	XXI Convergence (C.XXI)	1,072	0.07	New	0	±0
	Jaded.org (Hartos.org)	868	0.06	New	0	±0
	Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn)	489	0.03	0.01	0	±0
	Let us Give the Change (DeC)	432	0.03	New	0	±0
	Social Democratic Party of Law (SDD)	412	0.03	0.01	0	±0
	Democratic Action of the Centre of Galicia (ADCG)	360	0.02	New	0	±0
	Community Integration Party (PYC)	159	0.01	New	0	±0

	Blank ballots	38,448	2.66	1.00
Total		1,443,848	100.00		75	±0
Valid votes		1,443,848	97.47	1.64
Invalid votes		37,531	2.53	1.64
Votes cast / turnout		1,481,379	54.91	9.52
Abstentions		1,216,338	45.09	9.52
Registered voters		2,697,717
Source: Argos Information Portal

Vote share
PP			45.80%
PSdeG-PSOE			20.61%
AGE			13.91%
BNG			10.11%
UPyD			1.48%
Eb			1.19%
SCD			1.11%
CxG			1.01%
Others			2.12%
Blank			2.66%

Parliamentary seats
PP			54.67%
PSdeG-PSOE			24.00%
AGE			12.00%
BNG			9.33%

Notes

1. Compared to the United Left results in the 2009 election.
2. Poll results are shown projected over candidacy votes (that is, votes going for political parties, excluding blank ballots). The vote percentage in the official election is calculated including blank ballots into the estimation. In order to obtain data comparable to both the official results as well as those of other polls, a rule of three has been applied to the poll projections, with the results of the calculation being shown instead.

References

1. "Law 8/1985, of 13 August, of elections to the Parliament of Galicia.".
2. "The harshest adjustment of democracy" (in Spanish). El País. 2012-07-11.
3. "Rajoy raises VAT 3 points, from 18% to 21%" (in Spanish). El País. 2012-07-11.
4. "Feijóo forces a legal change in order to preserve his absolute majority" (in Spanish). El País. 2012-07-24.
5. "Basagoiti terminates the agreement with Patxi López and calls for a snap elections in the Basque Country" (in Spanish). RTVE. 2012-05-07.
6. "Feijóo brings forward the Galician election for it to coincide with the Basque election" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2012-08-27.