Issues in the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016

The United Kingdom's European Union membership referendum is due to take place on 23 June 2016.

Economy

Leave campaigners argue there is a shift in trade away from the EU, while those wanting to remain argue the dominance of EU trade on the UK's economy

The number of jobs lost or gained by a withdrawal is likely to be a dominant issue; the BBC's outline of issues warns that a precise figure is difficult to find.[1] The leave campaign argue that a reduction in red tape associated with EU regulations would create more jobs and that small to medium-sized companies who trade domestically would be the biggest beneficiaries.[1] Those arguing to remain in the EU, claim that millions of jobs would be lost.[1] A KPMG report cites the UK's EU membership as influential in its ability to attract investment in the automotive industry.[1] Clifford Chance call on the importance of the EU Internal Market legislation in the UK's financial services sector.[1] The leave campaign counter the claims of job losses by stating that there is "little evidence" on a substantial reduction in trade between European consumers and British businesses.[1]

The EEZ of the UK Mainland. The Common Fisheries Policy, and it's implications for the British fishing industry is a widely debated topic.[2]

The EU's importance as a trading partner and the outcome of its trade status if it left is a disputed issue.[1] While those wanting to stay cite trade with the EU is valued at £400 billion annually (52% of the total), those arguing to leave say that its trade is not as important as it used to be.[1] Trade barrier with the EU could emerge if the UK left, citing a the car industry with a 15% export and 10% import tariff.[1] This is debuckled by the leave campaign by saying that countries such as the US, India, China and Japan are in this position and trade with the EU.[1] It says it would put the UK in a better position to trade with other economies such as BRIC countries.[1]

Scenarios of the economic outlook for the country if it left the EU are generally negative.[1] think tank Open Europe claims the most likely permanent effect on annual gross domestic product by 2030 upon leaving would range from −0.8% to +0.6%, but notes +1.6% is possible under widespread deregulation.[1] Another, more narrowly focused studied by the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics puts the figure between −9.5% and −2.2%.[1]

On 20 April 2016, former Governor of Bank of England Mervyn King said that those treating the EU referendum debate as a public relations campaign tended to exaggerate the economic impact of a British departure from EU.[3]

Net contribution to the EU budget[4]
Country billions of euro
Germany
  
 16.32
UK
  
 10.76
France
  
 9.05
Italy
  
 4.61
Netherlands
  
 4.29
Year 2013

Britain pays more into the EU budget than it receives.[1] The net contribution figures range from £5.7 billion (2014) to £8.8 billion (2014/15) depending on sources and the time frame.[1] In 2013, UK was the second biggest net contributor to the EU budget.[4] The leave campaigners argue that this is a "hidden tariff" for exported goods, while the remain argument claims the net contribution is negligible in comparison to the benefits to business.[1] A study by Open Europe on the 100 most expensive EU regulations found that they cost the UK £27.4 billion per year and that 24 of those regulations had a net cost to the UK.[5]

Immigration

UK Border Agency officers at London Heathrow Airport's Terminal 5

Citizens of EU countries, including the United Kingdom, have the right to travel, live and work within other EU countries, as free movement is one of the four founding principles of the EU.[6] Campaigners for remaining say that EU immigration has had positive impacts on the UK's economy, citing that the country's growth forecasts are partly based upon continued high levels of net immigration.[1] The Office for Budget Responsibility also claim that taxes from immigrants boost public funding.[1] The leave campaign believe reduced immigration would ease pressure in public services such as schools and hospitals, as well as giving British workers more jobs and higher wages.[1]

In 2011, David Cameron of the Conservative Party (UK) made the promise to bring net migration to the UK under 100,000 by 2015, but the Government did not meet this target, and net migration rose to 336,000 in 2015.[7][8] According to the ONS, net migration from the EU had risen to 183,000 in March 2015, an increase of 53,000 from March 2014.[9] This has been used by Eurosceptic parties such as UKIP, to campaign for leaving the EU.[10] However, British Major-General Jonathan Shaw has argued that "more than half of the 332,000 immigrants came from outside the EU", which has nothing to do with EU membership.[11] However, the UK government's official migration figures themselves are highly controversial, because the number of National Insurance numbers claimed in the same period was 630,000, more than double the official migration figures.[12]

Since 2003, a bilateral agreement between the UK and France known as Le Touquet Agreement allows British border control officers to screen immigrants before they leave France.[13][14] In March 2016, Emmanuel Macron, the French Minister of Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs, warned that should the UK leave the EU, this agreement could be terminated.[13][14] He added that the Calais jungle could be transferred to mainland England as a result.[13][14] However, French Interior minister Bernard Cazeneuve completely dismissed the claim by Mr. Macron, saying that if the Touquet treaty (which is a bilateral treaty and has nothing to do with the EU) was terminated, it would give a green light to people smugglers and would only boost the numbers of migrants trying to cross Europe.[15]

The UK Statistics Authority (UKSA) sent a letter to the ONS and expressed concern that there were discrepancies between the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures. The ONS data showed that 904,000 EU nationals moved to UK, while the DWP data showed that the 2.25 million EU nationals registered National Insurance Numbers(NINO) during the 2010-2015 period.[16] Ed Humpherson, director-general for regulation at UKSA, wrote that the lack of a clear understanding and explanation of the differences between the DWP and ONS figures had led to speculation about the quality of the statistics, adding that the ONS's May publication would be part of the statistical evidence to inform the public about immigration levels ahead of the EU referendum.[16]

EU migration and EU nationals who registered NINO (thousands)[16]
  EU migration: Immigration statistics
  EU nationals: National Insurance Number registrations

Security, law enforcement and defence

In February 2016, thirteen of Britain's most senior former military commanders urged voters to back EU membership to protect British national security.[17]

Also in February 2016, Rob Wainwright (head of Europol) said that "a U.K. departure from the EU could inhibit police cooperation and cross-border investigations in Europe, at least until an alternative arrangement is agreed".[18] Speaking to Police Professional, he said that "if the UK was to vote to leave, it would no longer have direct use of pan-European databases or the ability to automatically join intelligence projects such as the European Migrant Smuggling Centre, the European Counter Terror Centre and the European Cybercrime Centre".[19]

Some EU counter-terrorism experts, British police and intelligence agencies have suggested that inter-agency co-operation across the EU could be improved in the light of the Schengen Agreement (even though the UK is not in Schengen).[20] They added that the UK had a single, well-policed border and better intelligence, and neither were a result of belonging to the European Union.[20]

On 21 February 2016, Work and Pensions secretary, Iain Duncan Smith, who was a Eurosceptic as early as 1992,[21] opined that remaining in the EU would make it more difficult to prevent terrorist attacks, because only by leaving the EU can the UK regain control of its borders.[22] He went on to suggest that the terrorists of the November 2015 Paris attacks had traveled to France from war-torn Syria and neither France (an EU member) or the EU itself had been able to prevent the attack.[22] Shortly after the remarks, Shadow Home Secretary Andy Burnham deplored what he called "highly irresponsible comments" and "inaccurate to boot" as the UK is not in Schengen.[21] Meanwhile, Conservative MEP Timothy Kirkhope retorted that Duncan Smith was "categorically wrong about security post Brexit".[22] Similarly, Labour MP Dan Jarvis went on to suggest that Duncan Smith's remarks were "misjudged and wrong", adding "This type of scaremongering should have no place in the vital debate about our country’s future that will take place over the coming months".[22] Labour MP Tristram Hunt agreed with Jarvis and called the remarks "baseless scaremongering from a man who knows he's on the wrong side of the argument".[21] Moreover, Jonathan Evans, the former Director-General of MI5, dismissed Duncan Smith's remarks, arguing once again that EU membership kept the UK safe.[22]

On 28 February 2016, Major-General Jonathan Shaw wrote an opinion piece in the Daily Mail suggesting remaining in the EU would protect Britain from cyber-attacks as well as threats from migration (as the UK is not in Schengen) and terrorism.[11] He concluded that remaining in the EU would keep Britain safe.[11]

Major-General Julian Thompson wrote in an article for the Daily Telegraph that the EU should have nothing to do with UK's national security, which Boris Johnson echoed.[23] He claimed that during the Cold War, it was NATO which prevented the Soviet Union's attack.[24] Thompson claims that the EU played no role in reaching peace in the Troubles in Northern Ireland during 1968–1998.[24] By contrast, Enda Kenny, Taoiseach of Ireland, claimed that EU membership played a significant role in ending the Troubles and achieving peace in Northern Ireland, and that a withdrawal from the European Union would put the Northern Ireland peace process at risk.[25]

Risk to the unity of the United Kingdom

With opinion polls showing that Scotland is more strongly in favour of remaining in the EU than the rest of the UK,[26] the possibility that Scotland could vote to remain within the EU but find itself withdrawn from the EU 'against its will' has led to discussion about the risk to the unity of the United Kingdom if that outcome materialised.[27] Scotland's First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, has made clear that she believes that a second independence referendum will "almost certainly" be demanded by Scots if the UK votes to leave the EU but Scotland does not,[28] and Prime Minister David Cameron has stated that he was well aware of demands for a rerun of the 2014 referendum if the UK voted for Brexit and Scotland voted to remain in the European Union.[29] An Ipsos MORI poll in February 2016 found that 54% would vote Yes to independence in those circumstances with 39% voting ‘No’ and 7% unsure.[30]

The First Minister of Wales, Carwyn Jones, has said: "If Wales votes to remain in [the EU] but the UK votes to leave, there will be a... constitutional crisis. The UK cannot possibly continue in its present form if England votes to leave and everyone else votes to stay."[31]

Former Defence minister Liam Fox has rebutted the claim that Scotland would hold a second referendum, saying that if Scotland votes to Remain in the EU, but any combination England, Wales, Northern Ireland, Cornwall and Gibraltar vote to Leave, that would not trigger an independence referendum in England or anywhere else. He said that part of the concept of the United Kingdom is that decisions are made as one country and the people of Scotland voted only 18 months ago, by a margin over 10%, to remain part of the UK.[32]

However, ex-shadow education secretary Tristram Hunt accused the Brexit camp of being "cavalier with the future of our country", stressing how a second Scottish independence referendum would be certain to follow a Leave vote on June 23.[33]

Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership(TTIP)

In March 2016, Nobel-prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said that UK should consider to leave the EU if the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership(TTIP) was signed, despite his being supportive of Britain's EU memberrship.[34] As Stiglitz noted, if TTIP were implemented, the UK government would be sued by corporations every time the government imposed a regulation to limit the health impact of toxins such as asbestos or anything else.[34]

In April 2016, former Foreign secretary David Owen argued that there was no doubt that TTIP would have a negative imapct on NHS if UK did not leave EU.[35]

In April 2016, US president Barack Obama suggested that UK would not ratify Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership(TTIP), a trade agreement between European Union and USA, if UK voted to leave EU. BBC said that TTIP was a trade pact to reduce tariffs and reguratory barriers so that corporations could access more easily the both markets, adding that TTIP would affect industries such as food, pharmaceuticals, finance etc. Accoriding to BBC, the government said that customers would benefit from the lower tariffs of on daily commodities.[36]

On 22 April 2016, War on Want pointed out that US president Barack Obama came to UK in order to ensure that Britain would ratify TTIP.[37]

Nick Dearden wrote in a Guardian article that even if UK left EU, UK would be required to accept many of TTIP's provisions in order to access the single market.[38]

Janet Daley wrote in a Telegraph article that TTIP could threaten NHS because TTIP would allow private US health providers to access the British market.[39]

References

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 "UK and the EU: Better off out or in?". BBC News. 23 February 2016. Retrieved 3 March 2016.
  2. ↑ Bryce Stewart (14 April 2015). "Fact Check: is 80% of UK fish given away to the rest of Europe?". The Conversation.
  3. ↑ Economic threat of Brexit is being 'exaggerated', says former Bank of England chief P. Spence, The Daily Telegraph, 20 Apr 2016
  4. 1 2 EU Facts: how much does Britain pay to the EU budget? J. Kirkup, The Daily Telegraph, 29 Feb 2016
  5. ↑ "EU Regulation Costs UK £27.4 Billion A Year – Report". The Huffington Post UK. 21 October 2013.
  6. ↑ Sodha, Sonia (27 July 2015). "Why is EU free movement so important?". Analysis, BBC Radio 4 (BBC News). Retrieved 4 March 2016.
  7. ↑ "BBC News – Conservatives 'won't ditch' migration target". BBC News. 2 March 2014. Retrieved 26 February 2016.
  8. ↑ "Net migration to UK hits record 336,000, statistics show". BBC News. 26 November 2015. Retrieved 26 February 2016.
  9. ↑ "Migration Statistics Quarterly Report: August 2015". ONS. Retrieved 27 February 2016.
  10. ↑ "David Cameron 'wilfully dishonest' over immigration – Nigel Farage". BBC News Online. 31 March 2015. Retrieved 27 February 2016.
  11. 1 2 3 Shaw, Jonathan (28 February 2016). "The risks that changed my military mind: Special forces veteran JONATHAN SHAW says it's just too dangerous to quit the EU". Daily Mail. Retrieved 28 February 2016.
  12. ↑ "The Great Migrant CON: MPs accused of a ‘cover-up’ as we reveal that 630,000 registered to work here in 2015". thesun.co.uk.
  13. 1 2 3 "Brexit Could Bring Calais 'Jungle' To Britain". Sky News. March 3, 2016. Retrieved March 4, 2016.
  14. 1 2 3 Wintour, Patrick; Asthana, Anushka (March 3, 2016). "French minister: Brexit would threaten Calais border arrangement". The Guardian. Retrieved March 4, 2016.
  15. ↑ "France's Calais border warning prompts Brexit row". eubusiness.com.
  16. 1 2 3 British public must be told truth about immigration figures ahead of EU referendum, says watchdogD. Barrett, The Daily Telegraph, 30 Mar 2016
  17. ↑ Britain must stay in the EU to protect itself from Isil, former military chiefs say The Daily Telegraph.
  18. ↑ Europol Chief Sees U.K. Exit From EU Undermining European Security Efforts The Wall Street Journal.
  19. ↑ Britain would be unable to access the same kind of European policing cooperation if it voted to leave the EU, according to one of the continent’s most senior policing figures Police Professional.
  20. 1 2 Gardner, Frank (22 February 2016). "EU referendum: The debate around counter-terrorism". BBC. Retrieved 26 February 2016.
  21. 1 2 3 Blanchard, Jack; Bloom, Dan (February 21, 2016). "Iain Duncan Smith blasted for "scaremongering" as he claims being in EU risks a Paris-style terror attack". The Mirror. Retrieved March 9, 2016.
  22. 1 2 3 4 5 Mason, Rowena (February 21, 2016). "Iain Duncan Smith: UK risks Paris-style attacks by staying in the EU". The Guardian. Retrieved March 9, 2016.
  23. ↑ Don’t be taken in by Project Fear – staying in the EU is the risky choice B. Johnson, The Daily Telegraph, 28 Feb 2016
  24. 1 2 I fought for Britain and I know how the EU weakens our defences M.G.J. Thompson, The Daily Telegraph, 29 Feb 2016
  25. ↑ Watt, Nicholas (2016-01-25). "Northern Ireland would face 'serious difficulty' from Brexit, Kenny warns". The Guardian. Retrieved 2016-02-20.
  26. ↑ "Poll: Scotland has four of top 10 most europhile UK counties". The Scotsman. 1 March 2016. Retrieved 5 March 2016.
  27. ↑ "Brexit could lead to second independence poll and break-up of Britain, says leading Scottish investment fund manager". The Herald. 24 February 2016. Retrieved 5 March 2016.
  28. ↑ "Sturgeon: EU exit could trigger demand for Scottish independence referendum". The BBC. 21 February 2016. Retrieved 5 March 2016.
  29. ↑ "Brexit ‘could trigger second Scottish referendum’". The Times. 1 March 2016. Retrieved 5 March 2016.
  30. ↑ "Poll: 54% of Scots would back independence following Brexit". The Scotsman. 10 February 2016. Retrieved 5 March 2016.
  31. ↑ "EU referendum: Brexit would spark 'constitutional crisis' for UK, warns Welsh First Minister Carwyn Jones". The Independent. 18 March 2016. Retrieved 21 March 2016.
  32. ↑ BBC Daily Politics, February 2016
  33. ↑ "EU referendum: Brexit would spark 'constitutional crisis' for UK, warns Welsh First Minister Carwyn Jones". The Herald. 25 March 2016. Retrieved 26 March 2016.
  34. 1 2 Brexit better for Britain than toxic TTIP, says Joseph StiglitzRT, 3 Mar 2016
  35. ↑ NHS would be 'completely unrecognisable' within years if UK remains inside the EUK. McCann, The Daily Telegraph, 6 Apr 2016
  36. ↑ TTIP: What is the future for UK-US trade? B. Wilson, BBC News, 24 Apr 2016
  37. ↑ Why Obama really wants Britain to stay in the EU… to impose Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership(TTIP) on Europe – NGORT, 22 Apr 2016
  38. ↑ TTIP is a very bad excuse to vote for Brexit N. Dearden, The Guardian, 25 Apr 2016
  39. ↑ The half-witted Remain camp have squandered their early advantage J. Daley, The Daily Telegraph, 16 Apr 2016

See also

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