Japanese House of Councillors election, 2016
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The 24th regular election of members of the House of Councillors (dai-nijūyon-kai Sangiin giin tsūjō senkyo, 第24回参議院議員通常選挙) will be held in early Summer 2016 to elect 121 of the 242 members of the House of Councillors, the upper house of the 717-member bicameral National Diet of Japan, for a term of six years. 76 members are elected by single non-transferable vote (SNTV)/First-past-the-post (FPTP) in 45 multi- and single-member prefectural electoral districts; for the first time, there will be two combined (gōku) prefectural single-member electoral districts that consist of two prefectures each: Tottori-Shimane and Tokushima-Kōchi. This change and several other reapportionments were part of an electoral reform law passed by the Diet in July 2015 designed to reduce the maximum ratio of malapportionment in the House of Councillors below 3.[1][2] The nationwide district which elects 48 members by D'Hondt proportional representation with most open lists remains unchanged.
The term of members up in 2016, elected in the 2010 regular election or subsequently to that class in by-elections or as runners-up, ends on July 25. Under the "Public Offices Election Act" (kōshoku-senkyo-hō),[3] the regular election must be held within 30 days before that date, or under certain conditions if the Diet is in session or scheduled to open at that time, between 24 and 30 days after the closure of the session and thus potentially somewhat after the actual end of term. The 2015 change to the Public Offices Election Act under which minors from 18 years of age are allowed to vote in national, prefectural and municipal elections and in referendums (those regulated by national laws, such as the confirmation of appointments to the Supreme Court or prefectural and municipal recalls; the rules of non-binding prefectural and municipal referendums not regulated by national laws are determined by local by-laws, and there have already been localities where minors as well as foreign residents have been allowed to vote in such referendums) takes effect one year after passage; the 2016 election is the first national election where the change applies.[4]
In the class of members up in 2016, the ruling coalition of Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Kōmeitō is close to but slightly below the majority line with a combined 58 of 121 seats (as of August 2015).[5] The position of the main opposition Democratic Party (DPJ) is still relatively strong compared to the other half of the chamber: It holds 42 of 121 seats,[5] 15 national and 27 prefectural seats, still including seven from single-member districts – compared to 0 single-member district winners in 2013. In regard to the overall composition of the house, the LDP would have to gain eight seats or more to reach a majority of its own and make the coalition with Kōmeitō unnecessary to pass legislation as it also holds a large (but not two-thirds) majority of its own in the lower house of the Diet. In the other direction, the governing coalition would have to lose 13 seats or more to forfeit its overall majority in the House of Councillors and face an at least technically a divided Diet (nejire Kokkai, lit. "twisted Diet") – as independents or minor opposition groups might be willing to support the government on a regular basis without inclusion in the cabinet, the actual nejire threshold may be lower than 121 seats. In legislation, the coalition two-thirds majority in the House of Representatives could then still override the House of Councillors; but certain Diet decisions, notably the approval of certain nominations by the cabinet such as public safety commission members or Bank of Japan governor, would require the cooperation of at least part of the opposition or an expansion of the ruling coalition.
Among the members up in 2016 are House of Councillors President Masaaki Yamazaki (LDP, Fukui), Vice President Azuma Koshiishi (DPJ, Yamanashi) and from the Reshuffled Third Abe Cabinet, justice minister Mitsuhide Iwaki (LDP, Fukushima) and Okinawa and science minister Aiko Shimajiri (LDP, Okinawa).
Pre-election composition
(as of March 30, 2016)[5]
| ↓ | ||||||
| 44 | 46 | 16 | 9 | 50 | 11 | 66 |
| Opposition seats not up | DP seats up | O | K | LDP seats up | K | LDP seats not up |
List of districts
In most cases, SNTV or proprotional elections in multi-member districts result in some form of seat split between government and opposition candidates, most likely in two-member districts with an even split; single-member districts (ichinin-ku) where SNTV becomes FPTP (winner-take-all) are in bold. Districts reapportioned in 2015 are shaded.
| District | magnitude | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Hokkaidō | 3 | changed from 2 |
| Aomori | 1 | |
| Iwate | 1 | |
| Miyagi | 1 | changed from 2 |
| Akita | 1 | |
| Yamagata | 1 | |
| Fukushima | 1 | 2 incumbents in this class (magnitude changed from 2 in the 2012 reapportionment) |
| Ibaraki | 2 | |
| Tochigi | 1 | |
| Gunma | 1 | |
| Saitama | 3 | |
| Chiba | 3 | |
| Tokyo | 6 | changed from 5 |
| Kanagawa | 4 | 3 incumbents in this class (magnitude changed from 3 in the 2012 reapportionment) |
| Niigata | 1 | changed from 2 |
| Toyama | 1 | |
| Ishikawa | 1 | |
| Fukui | 1 | |
| Yamanashi | 1 | |
| Nagano | 1 | changed from 2 |
| Gifu | 1 | 2 incumbents in this class (magnitude changed from 2 in the 2012 reapportionment) |
| Shizuoka | 2 | |
| Aichi | 4 | changed from 3 |
| Mie | 1 | |
| Shiga | 1 | |
| Kyoto | 2 | |
| Osaka | 4 | 3 incumbents in this class (magnitude changed from 3 in the 2012 reapportionment) |
| Hyōgo | 3 | changed from 2 |
| Nara | 1 | |
| Wakayama | 1 | |
| Tottori-Shimane | 1 | combined from Tottori and Shimane with 1 each |
| Okayama | 1 | |
| Hiroshima | 2 | |
| Yamaguchi | 1 | |
| Tokushima-Kōchi | 1 | combined from Tokushima and Kōchi with 1 each |
| Kagawa | 1 | |
| Ehime | 1 | |
| Fukuoka | 3 | changed from 2 |
| Saga | 1 | |
| Nagasaki | 1 | |
| Kumamoto | 1 | |
| Ōita | 1 | |
| Miyazaki | 1 | |
| Kagoshima | 1 | |
| Okinawa | 1 | |
| National proportional | 48 |
References
- ↑ The Japan Times, July 28, 2015: Upper House districts set for shake-up after electoral reform laws pass Diet
- ↑ Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, August 5, 2015: Changes to House of Councillors electoral districts, Summary (Japanese)
- ↑ e-gov legal database: 公職選挙法, chapter 5 (election dates), article 32 (regular elections)
- ↑ Asahi Shimbun, June 17, 2015: http://www.asahi.com/articles/ASH6J41T7H6JUTFK001.html １８歳選挙権、成立 来夏の参院選から適用へ
- 1 2 3 House of Councillors: Members by caucus, class, parallel election segment and gender (Japanese) Figure for the government: LDP caucus+Kōmeitō caucus+president (LDP, but not member of a caucus); for the DPJ: DPJ/Shin-Ryokufūkai+vice president (DPJ, but not member of a caucus) – the last four independent Shin-Ryokufūkai members joined the DPJ in 2009, but Shin-Ryokufūkai has remained part of the DPJ upper house caucus name since.
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