List of marginal seats in the Canadian general election, 2015

Based on the transposition of votes from the 2011 election to the new ridings created under the 2012 redistribution, the following seats had a margin of victory of less than 5 percentage points in that election:

Marginal constituencies, based on 2012 redistribution, ranked by 2011 pro forma margin of victory
Constituency	Province	Rank of parties			Margins		2015 result
		1st	2nd	3rd	1st vs 2nd	1st vs 3rd
Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup	Quebec	36.4%	36.3%	20.1%	0.1%	16.3%		Con gain
Nipissing—Timiskaming	Ontario	36.5%	36.4%	21.1%	0.1%	15.4%		Lib hold
Winnipeg North	Manitoba	35.4%	35.0%	27.4%	0.4%	8.0%		Lib gain
Cowichan—Malahat—Langford	British Columbia	43.6%	43.1%	7.2%	0.5%	36.4%		NDP hold
Mississauga—Malton	Ontario	37.4%	36.8%	23.4%	0.6%	14.0%		Lib gain
Labrador	Newfoundland and Labrador	39.8%	39.1%	19.8%	0.7%	19.8%		Lib gain
Markham—Thornhill	Ontario	37.1%	36.4%	23.4%	0.7%	13.7%		Lib hold
Yukon	Yukon	33.8%	32.9%	18.9%	0.9%	14.9%		Lib gain
Scarborough—Guildwood	Ontario	35.8%	34.7%	26.7%	1.1%	9.1%		Lib hold
Ahuntsic-Cartierville*	Quebec	31.1%	29.9%	28.3%	1.2%	2.8%		Lib hold
Surrey—Newton	British Columbia	35.3%	34.1%	27.4%	1.2%	7.9%		Lib gain
Richmond—Arthabaska	Quebec	33.8%	32.5%	24.7%	1.3%	9.1%		Con gain
Etobicoke Centre	Ontario	41.9%	40.6%	14.6%	1.3%	27.3%		Lib gain
Regina—Lewvan	Saskatchewan	45.2%	43.9%	8.2%	1.3%	37.0%		NDP hold
Lévis—Lotbinière	Quebec	39.9%	38.5%	14.9%	1.4%	25.0%		Con hold
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River	Manitoba	46.9%	45.4%	5.3%	1.5%	41.6%		NDP gain
Dartmouth—Cole Harbour	Nova Scotia	36.4%	34.7%	25.0%	1.7%	11.4%		Lib gain
Honoré-Mercier	Quebec	35.2%	33.5%	16.0%	1.7%	19.2%		Lib gain
Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke	British Columbia	39.4%	37.6%	12.9%	1.8%	26.5%		NDP hold
Don Valley East	Ontario	38.4%	36.4%	21.9%	2.0%	16.5%		Lib hold
Scarborough North	Ontario	35.4%	33.4%	28.9%	2.0%	6.5%		Lib gain
Sydney—Victoria	Nova Scotia	39.9%	37.8%	19.0%	2.1%	20.9%		Lib hold
Elmwood—Transcona	Manitoba	46.9%	44.8%	5.2%	2.1%	41.7%		NDP gain
Louis-Saint-Laurent	Quebec	39.9%	37.6%	14.4%	2.3%	25.5%		Con gain
Willowdale	Ontario	41.5%	39.2%	18.9%	2.3%	22.6%		Lib gain
Don Valley West	Ontario	43.9%	41.5%	10.7%	2.4%	33.2%		Lib gain
Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel	Quebec	38.3%	35.6%	13.0%	2.7%	25.3%		Bloc hold
London North Centre	Ontario	37.1%	34.2%	24.3%	2.9%	12.8%		Lib gain
Kings—Hants	Nova Scotia	39.6%	36.6%	20.0%	3.0%	19.6%		Lib hold
Don Valley North	Ontario	40.3%	37.3%	20.7%	3.0%	19.6%		Lib gain
Sault Ste. Marie	Ontario	40.4%	37.4%	19.7%	3.0%	20.7%		Lib gain
Scarborough Centre*	Ontario	34.9%	31.9%	30.7%	3.0%	4.2%		Lib gain
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount	Quebec	38.2%	35.1%	17.7%	3.1%	20.5%		Lib hold
Waterloo	Ontario	41.4%	38.3%	14.9%	3.1%	26.5%		Lib gain
Scarborough—Rouge Park*	Ontario	34.8%	31.6%	31.0%	3.2%	3.8%		Lib hold
Scarborough Southwest	Ontario	34.9%	31.7%	29.3%	3.2%	5.6%		Lib gain
Toronto Centre	Ontario	39.7%	36.5%	17.3%	3.2%	22.4%		Lib hold
Malpeque	Prince Edward Island	42.4%	39.1%	14.6%	3.3%	27.8%		Lib hold
Pierrefonds—Dollard	Quebec	34.1%	30.5%	26.9%	3.6%	7.2%		Lib gain
Avalon	Newfoundland and Labrador	37.1%	33.2%	28.5%	3.9%	8.6%		Lib gain
Brossard—Saint-Lambert	Quebec	36.8%	32.8%	15.9%	4.0%	20.9%		Lib gain
Lac-Saint-Louis	Quebec	34.1%	30.1%	28.4%	4.0%	28.4%		Lib hold
Niagara Centre	Ontario	43.2%	39.1%	14.4%	4.1%	28.8%		Lib gain
Courtenay—Alberni	British Columbia	44.9%	40.7%	6.8%	4.2%	38.1%		NDP gain
Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine	Quebec	33.1%	28.8%	19.1%	4.3%	14.0%		Lib gain
Surrey Centre	British Columbia	40.0%	35.7%	17.8%	4.3%	22.2%		Lib gain
North Island—Powell River	British Columbia	46.0%	41.7%	6.4%	4.3%	39.6%		NDP gain
Burnaby South	British Columbia	44.0%	39.6%	11.7%	4.4%	32.3%		NDP hold
Winnipeg South Centre	Manitoba	41.2%	36.6%	18.3%	4.6%	22.9%		Lib gain
Vancouver Centre*	British Columbia	31.0%	26.3%	26.1%	4.7%	4.9%		Lib hold
Nanaimo—Ladysmith	British Columbia	45.3%	40.4%	7.2%	4.9%	38.1%		NDP hold

* - indicates a margin of less than 5 points between 1st and 3rd place

Analysis of 2015 results

Gains and losses by party in marginal seats

Party in 1st place (2011)		Holds	Gains	Party taken from
				Conservative	NDP	Liberal	Bloc
	Conservative	1	3		2		1
	New Democratic	5	4	4
	Liberal	13	24	13	10		1
	Bloc Québécois	1	–
Total		20	31	17	12	–	2

Analysis of 2011 rankings

First- and second-place finishes of such seats were grouped as follows:

Marginal seats: ranked by 1st and 2nd place

Party in 1st place		Party in 2nd place				Total
		Conservative	NDP	Liberal	Bloc
	Conservative		6	12		18
	New Democratic	12		5		17
	Liberal	8	5			13
	Bloc Québécois		3			3
Total		20	14	17		51

Broken down by province:

Marginal seats – analysis by province/territory

Party in 1st place		BC	MB	NL	NS	ON	PE	QC	SK	YK	Total
	Conservative	2	3	2		9		1		1	18
	New Democratic	6	1		1	3		5	1		17
	Liberal	1			2	6	1	3			13
	Bloc Québécois							3			3
Total		9	4	2	3	18	1	12	1	1	51