List of marginal seats in the Canadian general election, 2015

Based on the transposition of votes from the 2011 election to the new ridings created under the 2012 redistribution, the following seats had a margin of victory of less than 5 percentage points in that election:

Marginal constituencies, based on 2012 redistribution, ranked by 2011 pro forma margin of victory
Constituency Province Rank of parties Margins2015 result
1st 2nd 3rd 1st vs 2nd 1st vs 3rd
Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup Quebec 36.4% 36.3% 20.1% 0.1% 16.3%  Con gain
Nipissing—Timiskaming Ontario 36.5% 36.4% 21.1% 0.1% 15.4%  Lib hold
Winnipeg North Manitoba 35.4% 35.0% 27.4% 0.4% 8.0%  Lib gain
Cowichan—Malahat—Langford British Columbia 43.6% 43.1% 7.2% 0.5% 36.4%  NDP hold
Mississauga—Malton Ontario 37.4% 36.8%23.4% 0.6% 14.0%  Lib gain
Labrador Newfoundland and Labrador 39.8% 39.1% 19.8% 0.7% 19.8%  Lib gain
Markham—Thornhill Ontario 37.1% 36.4%23.4% 0.7% 13.7%  Lib hold
Yukon Yukon 33.8% 32.9% 18.9% 0.9% 14.9%  Lib gain
Scarborough—Guildwood Ontario 35.8% 34.7% 26.7% 1.1% 9.1%  Lib hold
Ahuntsic-Cartierville* Quebec 31.1% 29.9% 28.3% 1.2% 2.8%  Lib hold
Surrey—Newton British Columbia 35.3% 34.1% 27.4% 1.2% 7.9%  Lib gain
Richmond—Arthabaska Quebec 33.8% 32.5% 24.7% 1.3% 9.1%  Con gain
Etobicoke Centre Ontario 41.9% 40.6% 14.6% 1.3% 27.3%  Lib gain
Regina—Lewvan Saskatchewan 45.2% 43.9% 8.2% 1.3% 37.0%  NDP hold
Lévis—Lotbinière Quebec 39.9% 38.5% 14.9% 1.4% 25.0%  Con hold
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River Manitoba 46.9% 45.4% 5.3% 1.5% 41.6%  NDP gain
Dartmouth—Cole Harbour Nova Scotia 36.4% 34.7% 25.0% 1.7% 11.4%  Lib gain
Honoré-Mercier Quebec 35.2% 33.5% 16.0% 1.7% 19.2%  Lib gain
Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke British Columbia 39.4% 37.6% 12.9% 1.8% 26.5%  NDP hold
Don Valley East Ontario 38.4% 36.4% 21.9% 2.0% 16.5%  Lib hold
Scarborough North Ontario 35.4% 33.4% 28.9% 2.0% 6.5%  Lib gain
Sydney—Victoria Nova Scotia 39.9% 37.8% 19.0% 2.1% 20.9%  Lib hold
Elmwood—Transcona Manitoba 46.9% 44.8% 5.2% 2.1% 41.7%  NDP gain
Louis-Saint-Laurent Quebec 39.9% 37.6% 14.4% 2.3% 25.5%  Con gain
Willowdale Ontario 41.5% 39.2%18.9% 2.3% 22.6%  Lib gain
Don Valley West Ontario 43.9% 41.5% 10.7% 2.4% 33.2%  Lib gain
Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel Quebec 38.3% 35.6% 13.0% 2.7% 25.3%  Bloc hold
London North Centre Ontario 37.1% 34.2% 24.3% 2.9% 12.8%  Lib gain
Kings—Hants Nova Scotia 39.6% 36.6% 20.0% 3.0% 19.6%  Lib hold
Don Valley North Ontario 40.3% 37.3% 20.7% 3.0% 19.6%  Lib gain
Sault Ste. Marie Ontario 40.4% 37.4% 19.7% 3.0% 20.7%  Lib gain
Scarborough Centre* Ontario 34.9% 31.9% 30.7% 3.0% 4.2%  Lib gain
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount Quebec 38.2% 35.1% 17.7% 3.1% 20.5%  Lib hold
Waterloo Ontario 41.4% 38.3% 14.9% 3.1% 26.5%  Lib gain
Scarborough—Rouge Park* Ontario 34.8% 31.6% 31.0% 3.2% 3.8%  Lib hold
Scarborough Southwest Ontario 34.9% 31.7% 29.3% 3.2% 5.6%  Lib gain
Toronto Centre Ontario 39.7% 36.5% 17.3% 3.2% 22.4%  Lib hold
Malpeque Prince Edward Island 42.4% 39.1% 14.6% 3.3% 27.8%  Lib hold
Pierrefonds—Dollard Quebec 34.1% 30.5% 26.9% 3.6% 7.2%  Lib gain
Avalon Newfoundland and Labrador 37.1% 33.2% 28.5% 3.9% 8.6%  Lib gain
Brossard—Saint-Lambert Quebec 36.8% 32.8% 15.9% 4.0% 20.9%  Lib gain
Lac-Saint-Louis Quebec 34.1% 30.1% 28.4% 4.0% 28.4%  Lib hold
Niagara Centre Ontario 43.2% 39.1% 14.4% 4.1% 28.8%  Lib gain
Courtenay—Alberni British Columbia 44.9% 40.7% 6.8% 4.2% 38.1%  NDP gain
Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine Quebec 33.1% 28.8% 19.1% 4.3% 14.0%  Lib gain
Surrey Centre British Columbia 40.0% 35.7%17.8% 4.3% 22.2%  Lib gain
North Island—Powell River British Columbia 46.0% 41.7% 6.4% 4.3% 39.6%  NDP gain
Burnaby South British Columbia 44.0% 39.6% 11.7% 4.4% 32.3%  NDP hold
Winnipeg South Centre Manitoba 41.2% 36.6% 18.3% 4.6% 22.9%  Lib gain
Vancouver Centre* British Columbia 31.0% 26.3% 26.1% 4.7% 4.9%  Lib hold
Nanaimo—Ladysmith British Columbia 45.3% 40.4% 7.2% 4.9% 38.1%  NDP hold

* - indicates a margin of less than 5 points between 1st and 3rd place

Analysis of 2015 results

Gains and losses by party in marginal seats

 
Party in 1st place (2011)Holds Gains Party taken from
ConservativeNDP Liberal Bloc
Conservative 1 3 2 1
New Democratic 5 4 4
Liberal 13 24 13 10 1
Bloc Québécois 1
Total 20 31 17 12 2

Analysis of 2011 rankings

First- and second-place finishes of such seats were grouped as follows:

Marginal seats: ranked by 1st and 2nd place

 
Party in 1st place Party in 2nd place Total
ConservativeNDP Liberal Bloc
Conservative 6 12 18
New Democratic 12 5 17
Liberal 8 5 13
Bloc Québécois 3 3
Total 20 14 17 51

Broken down by province:

Marginal seats – analysis by province/territory

 
Party in 1st place BC MB NL NS ON PE QC SK YK Total
Conservative 2 3 2 9 1 1 18
New Democratic 6 1 1 3 5 1 17
Liberal 1 2 6 1 3 13
Bloc Québécois 3 3
Total 9 4 2 3 18 1 12 1 1 51
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