Results of the Canadian federal election, 2015

The 42nd Canadian federal election was held on October 19, 2015. The incumbent Conservative Party of Canada of Prime Minister Stephen Harper, in office since 2006, was defeated by the Liberal Party of Canada under the leadership of Justin Trudeau. The Liberals rebounded from third place in the House of Commons with 36 seats to a strong majority government with 184 of the 338 seats in the expanded Commons. The Liberals picked up 148 seats, easily the biggest numerical increase for a Canadian party since Confederation.

Result overview

↓
184 99 44 10 1
Liberal Conservative New Democratic BQ G
A polling station on election day

At 9:41pm EDT, October 19, 2015, CBC News projected that the Liberals had won at least a minority government, and that leader Justin Trudeau would become the next Prime Minister of Canada. Less than an hour later, at 10:36pm EDT, CBC News projected a Liberal majority. The New Democratic Party lost more than half the seats they had held, with Tom Mulcair becoming the first major party leader to concede defeat. The Conservatives dropped down to 99 seats to form the main opposition party, and Stephen Harper resigned as leader of the Conservative Party. The Bloc Québécois regained some ridings they had lost in the previous election, but party leader Giles Duceppe failed to regain the seat he lost back in 2011. Green Party leader Elizabeth May kept her seat.[1]

According to preliminary figures from Elections Canada, more than 68 per cent of eligible voters cast a ballot, or about 17,546,697 registered electors—a seven percentage point increase from the 2011 federal election, when turnout was just more than 61 per cent.[2]

Summary analysis

Party Votes Seats
Liberal 6,930,136
39.5%
 Increase 20.6%
184 / 338 (54%)
Conservative 5,600,496
31.9%
 Decrease 7.7%
99 / 338 (29%)
New Democratic 3,461,262
19.7%
 Decrease 10.9%
44 / 338 (13%)
Bloc Québécois 818,652
4.7%
 Decrease 1.2%
10 / 338 (3%)
Green 605,864
3.4%
 Decrease 0.5%
1 / 338 (0.3%)
The disproportionality of parliament in the 2015 election was 12.02 according to the Gallagher Index, mainly in the Liberals' favour.
Elections to the 42nd Parliament of Canada – seats won/lost by party, 2011–2015
Party 2011
(redist.)		 Gain from (loss to) 2015
Lib Con NDP BQ Grn
Liberal 36 96 51 1 184
Conservative 188 (96) (3) 99
New Democratic 109 (51) 3 (7) 44
Bloc Québécois 4 (1) 7 10
Green 1 1
Total 338 (148) 99 55 (6) 338
Party candidates in 2nd place[3]
Party in 1st place Party in 2nd place Total
Lib Con NDP BQ Grn Ind
Liberal 111 64 8 1 184
Conservative 81 18 99
New Democratic 29 11 3 1 44
Bloc Québécois 8 2 10
Green 1 1
Total 118 123 84 11 1 1 338
Principal races, according to 1st and 2nd place results[3]
Parties Seats
█ Liberal █ Conservative 192
█ Liberal █ New Democratic 93
█ Conservative █ New Democratic 29
█ Liberal █ Bloc Québécois 16
█ New Democratic █ Bloc Québécois 5
█ Liberal █ Independent 1
█ Conservative █ Green 1
█ New Democratic █ Green 1
Total 338
Seats won, by share of vote going to winning candidate[4]
Party in 1st place >50% 45-49.9% 40-44.9% 35-39.9% <35% Total
Liberal 87 48 26 13 10 184
Conservative 42 24 20 8 5 99
New Democratic 3 4 12 14 11 44
Bloc Québécois 2 1 7 10
Green 1 1
Total 133 76 60 36 33 338

Detailed analysis

 Summary of the 2015 Canadian federal election
Party Party leader Candidates Seats Popular vote
2011 Dissol. Redist.[lower-alpha 1] 2015 % change
from 2011		 % seats # # change % pp change % where
running
Liberal Justin Trudeau 338[lower-alpha 2] 34 36 36 184 +441.18% 54.44% 6,943,276 +4,160,101 39.47% +20.56pp 39.47%
Conservative Stephen Harper 338[lower-alpha 3] 166 159 188 99 -40.36% 29.29% 5,613,614 -218,787 31.91% -7.73pp 31.91%
New Democratic Tom Mulcair 338 103 95[lower-alpha 4] 109 44 -57.28% 13.02% 3,470,350 -1,038,124 19.73% -10.92pp 19.73%
Bloc Québécois Gilles Duceppe 78 4 2 4 10 +150% 2.96% 821,144 -68,644 4.67% -1.38pp 19.36%
Green Elizabeth May 336 1 2[lower-alpha 4] 1 1 0% 0.3% 602,944 +26,723 3.43% -0.46pp 3.44%
  Independent and no affiliation 80 0 8 0 0 0 0 49,616 -23,115 0.28% -0.21pp 1.18%
Libertarian Tim Moen 72 0 0 0 0 0 0 36,772 +30,755 0.21% +0.17pp 0.93%
Christian Heritage Rod Taylor 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 15,232 -3,986 0.09% -0.05pp 0.97%
Marxist–Leninist Anna Di Carlo 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 8,838 -1,322 0.05% -0.02pp 0.23%
Strength in Democracy Jean-François Fortin 17 N/A 2[lower-alpha 5] N/A 0 0 0 8,274 * 0.05% * 0.90%
Rhinoceros Sébastien Corriveau 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 7,263 +3,444 0.04% +0.01pp 0.52%
Progressive Canadian Sinclair Stevens 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 4,476 -1,362 0.03% -0.01pp 1.03%
Communist Miguel Figueroa 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 4,393 +1,468 0.02% -0.00pp 0.32%
Animal Alliance Liz White 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,699 +248 0.01% -0.00pp 0.36%
Marijuana Blair Longley 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,557 -307 0.01% -0.00pp 0.34%
Democratic Advancement Stephen Garvey 4 N/A 0 N/A 0 0 0 1,187 * 0.01% * 0.62%
Pirate Roderick Lim 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 908 -2,290 0.01% -0.01pp 0.32%
Canadian Action Jeremy Arney 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 401 -1,629 0.00% -0.01pp 0.24%
Canada Party Jim Pankiw 1 N/A 0 N/A 0 0 0 271 * 0.00% * 0.72%
Seniors Daniel J. Patton 1 N/A N/A N/A 0 0 0 157 * 0.00% * 0.29%
Alliance of the North François Bélanger 1 N/A N/A N/A 0 0 0 136 * 0.00% * 0.22%
Bridge David Berlin 1 N/A 0 N/A 0 0 0 122 * 0.00% * 0.29%
PACT Michael Nicula 1 N/A 0 N/A 0 0 0 91 * 0.00% * 0.17%
United Bob Kesic 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 57 -237 0.00% -0.00pp 0.10%
  Vacant 0 4 0 0 N/A
Total 1,792 308 308 338 338 +9.74% 100% 17,592,778 +2,872,198 100% 100%
Source: Elections Canada (Final results)
  1. ↑ The party totals are theoretical. They are the transposition of the 2011 district results redistributed to the new districts formed in 2015.
  2. ↑ Includes Liberal candidate Cheryl Thomas from Victoria, who publicly withdrew from the election after the final list of candidates was released and thus remained on the ballot as the Liberal candidate.
  3. ↑ Includes Conservative candidate Jagdish Grewal from Mississauga—Malton, who was expelled by the Conservative Party after the final list of candidates was released and thus remained on the ballot as the Conservative candidate.
  4. 1 2 Does not include José Núñez-Melo, an incumbent MP who was denied the NDP nomination in Vimy after the writ was dropped, and subsequently announced he was running as a Green candidate.
  5. ↑ Does not include Montcalm MP Manon Perreault, who sat as an independent before the writ was dropped, after which she announced her candidacy for Strength in Democracy.

Party summaries

Liberals

In the previous election, the Liberals were cut down to 34 seats, the fewest they had ever won in their history. It was the first time since the nation's founding that the Liberals had not been either in government or the Official Opposition. They picked up one additional seat in a by-election and one via a floor-crossing.

While the Liberals had been expected to regain much of what they had lost in 2015, they tallied the second-best performance in their history; the 184 seats was bettered only by the 193 they won in 1949. It was also the most seats that a party had won since the Progressive Conservatives won a record 211 in 1984.

The Liberal victory came mainly on the strength of a solid performance in the eastern part of the country. They took every seat in Atlantic Canada, and also swept Toronto. They also won all but one seat in Ottawa. Most notably, they won 40 of Quebec's 78 seats, mostly on the strength of taking all but five seats in Montreal. It was the first time since 1980 that the Liberals had won the most seats in Quebec.

After going into the election with only four seats west of Ontario, the Liberals had their best showing in Western Canada in more than two decades. They not only took all but one seat in Winnipeg and all but two seats in Vancouver, but won seats in Alberta for the first time since 2004. Notably, they won two seats in Calgary; they had won only three seats there in their entire history prior to 2015. They were the only party to win seats in every province.

Conservatives

The Conservatives lost 60 seats to become the Official Opposition. They held their own in their heartlands of rural western Canada and central Ontario, and managed a respectable showing in southwestern Ontario and the more rural areas of eastern Ontario. However, they suffered heavy losses in urban southern Ontario, a region which had swung heavily to them in 2011. They lost all of their seats in Toronto itself and all but three in the 905 region. They also lost all of their seats in Winnipeg and Vancouver, as well as Atlantic Canada. It will be the first time in decades that there will be no centre-right MPs east of Quebec. They did, however, manage to make some gains in francophone areas of Quebec, mostly at the expense of the NDP.

Several members of Harper's cabinet were defeated, including Bernard Valcourt, Leona Aglukkaq, Gail Shea, Chris Alexander, Joe Oliver and Julian Fantino among others.

New Democrats

The NDP, the Official Opposition in the previous parliament, fell to third place with 44 seats, losing more than half of their caucus. For the most part, their support bled over to the Liberals, though they lost a few areas of francophone Quebec to the Conservatives and Bloc.

Bloc Québecois

The Bloc made a modest recovery after being nearly decimated in 2011, rebounding to 10 seats. However, Gilles Duceppe, who had been the longest-serving party leader in Canada at the time of his defeat in 2011, failed to win back his old seat of Laurier—Sainte-Marie. The party also received a smaller share of the popular vote than in the last election. As such, their gains could be attributable to NDP-Liberal vote splitting in francophone ridings more than a surge in popular support.

Contributing factors to party success

The parties had varying degrees of success by region and by socioeconomic factors. An analysis by The Globe and Mail shortly after the election was held revealed significant differences:[5]

Party support arising from certain key factors by region in the Canadian general election (2015), as a proportion of the ridings won
Region Income (Median household) Unemployment rate Visible minority population
<$35,810 $35,810–$141,720 >$141,720 Low (4%–6%) High (9%–22%) Low (<2.41%) High (>26.8%)
Atlantic
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Quebec
50%
27%
14%
9%
46%
14%
21%
18%
83%
17%
44%
16%
24%
16%
71%
21%
4%
4%
28%
25%
31%
17%
92%
8%
Ontario
67%
33%
64%
6%
30%
69%
2%
29%
56%
3%
42%
72%
13%
15%
37%
11%
53%
91%
2%
7%
Prairies
33%
33%
33%
23%
10%
68%
12%
4%
84%
18%
7%
75%
67%
33%
22%
78%
40%
60%
British Columbia
25%
50%
25%
41%
33%
22%
4%
57%
14%
29%
53%
26%
16%
5%
27%
47%
27%
N/A
65%
29%
6%
The North
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

Results by province

Party name BC AB SK MB ON QC NB NS PE NL YT NT NU Total
     Liberal Seats: 17 4 1 7 80 40 10 11 4 7 1 1 1 184
Vote: 35.2 24.6 23.9 44.6 44.8 35.7 51.6 61.9 58.3 64.5 53.6 48.3 47.2 39.5
     Conservative Seats: 10 29 10 5 33 12 – – – – – – – 99
Vote: 30.0 59.5 48.5 37.3 35.0 16.7 25.3 17.9 19.3 10.3 24.0 18.0 24.8 31.9
     New Democratic Party Seats: 14 1 3 2 8 16 – – – – – – – 44
Vote: 25.9 11.6 25.1 13.8 16.6 25.4 18.3 16.4 16.0 21.0 19.5 30.8 26.5 19.7
     Bloc Québécois Seats: – – – – – 10 – – – – – – – 10
Vote: – – – – – 19.3 – – – – – – – 4.7
     Green Seats: 1 – – – – – – – – – – – – 1
Vote: 8.2 2.5 2.1 3.2 2.9 2.3 4.6 3.4 6.0 1.1 2.9 2.8 1.5 3.4
     Independent and no affiliation Vote: 0.1 0.8 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 – 2.9 – – – 0.2
Total seats 42 34 14 14 121 78 10 11 4 7 1 1 1 338

10 closest ridings

Electoral district 1st-place candidate 2nd-place candidate Won by Confirmed on recount[6]
Elmwood—Transcona MB Daniel Blaikie Lawrence Toet 61 votes
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River SK Georgina Jolibois Lawrence Joseph 71 votes Green tick
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte ON Alex Nuttall Brian Tamblyn 86 votes Green tick
Edmonton Mill Woods AB Amarjeet Sohi Tim Uppal 92 votes Green tick
Regina—Lewvan SK Erin Weir Trent Fraser 132 votes
Hastings—Lennox and Addington ON Mike Bossio Daryl Kramp 225 votes
Kitchener—Conestoga ON Harold Albrecht Tim Louis 251 votes
Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup QC Bernard Généreux Marie-Josée Normand 272 votes Green tick
Kootenay—Columbia BC Wayne Stetski David Wilks 282 votes
Jonquière QC Karine Trudel Marc Pettersen 339 votes

Retiring & Defeated Incumbents

Notional gains

As a result of the 2012 federal electoral redistribution, thirty new ridings were added and many riding boundaries were changed, so several incumbent MPs who ran chose to do so in new ridings. The following table identifies the subsequent nominees in their old ridings and who they lost to.

Electoral District, with 2011 redistributed result Incumbent at dissolution and subsequent nominee New MP
Alberta   Edmonton Mill Woods   Mike Lake Tim Uppal   Amarjeet Sohi
British Columbia   Burnaby North—Seymour   Kennedy Stewart Carol Baird Ellan   Terry Beech
  North Island—Powell River   John Duncan Laura Smith   Rachel Blaney
  Steveston—Richmond East   Kerry-Lynne Findlay Kenny Chiu   Joe Peschisolido
Ontario   Bay of Quinte   Daryl Kramp Jodie Jenkins   Neil Ellis
  Brampton East   Bal Gosal Naval Bajaj   Raj Grewal
  Brampton West   Kyle Seeback Ninder Thind   Kamal Khera
  Don Valley East   Joe Daniel Maureen Harquail   Yasmin Ratansi
  Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas   David Sweet Vincent Samuel   Filomena Tassi
  Nepean   Pierre Poilievre Andy Wang   Chandra Arya
  Oakville North—Burlington   Lisa Raitt Effie Triantafilopoulos   Pam Damoff
  Richmond Hill   Costas Menegakis Michael Parsa   Majid Jowhari
Quebec   Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation   Mylène Freeman Chantal Crête   Stéphane Lauzon
  Marc-Aurèle-Fortin   Alain Giguère Marie-Josée Lemieux   Yves Robillard
  Repentigny   Jean-François Larose Johnathan Cloutier   Monique Pauzé
Saskatchewan   Regina—Lewvan   Tom Lukiwski Trent Fraser   Erin Weir
  Saskatoon West   Kelly Block Randy Donauer   Sheri Benson

New Seats

As a result of the 2012 federal electoral redistribution, thirty new ridings were added and many riding boundaries were changed, so several ridings did not have an Incumbent. The following table identifies what party would have held the redistributed ridings based on 2011 results for the new riding and the subsequent MP who was elected. Some of these seats did have incumbents from other districts running.

Party Electoral District New MP
Conservative
Alberta Bow River   Martin Shields
Calgary Rocky Ridge   Pat Kelly
Calgary Shepard   Tom Kmiec
Edmonton Manning   Ziad Aboultaif
Edmonton—Wetaskiwin   Mike Lake
Peace River—Westlock   Arnold Viersen
Sturgeon River—Parkland   Rona Ambrose
British Columbia Cloverdale—Langley City   John Aldag
Delta   Carla Qualtrough
Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon   Jati Sidhu
Vancouver Granville   Jody Wilson-Raybould
Ontario Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill   Leona Alleslev
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte   Alex Nuttall
Brampton Centre   Ramesh Sangha
Brampton South   Sonia Sidhu
Carleton   Pierre Poilievre
Don Valley North   Geng Tan
Flamborough—Glanbrook   David Sweet
Hastings—Lennox and Addington   Mike Bossio
King—Vaughan   Deb Schulte
Kitchener South—Hespeler   Marwan Tabbara
Markham—Unionville   Bob Saroya
Milton   Lisa Raitt
Mississauga Centre   Omar Alghabra
NDP
British Columbia Burnaby South   Kennedy Stewart
Nanaimo—Ladysmith   Sheila Malcolmson
Quebec La Prairie   Jean-Claude Poissant
Mirabel   Simon Marcil
Thérèse-De Blainville   Ramez Ayoub
Liberal
Ontario Scarborough—Rouge Park   Gary Anandasangaree

References

  1. ↑ "Canada Election 2015 Live Results CBC". CBC.ca.
  2. ↑ "Voter turnout spikes after long, unpredictable campaign". cbc.ca. October 20, 2015.
  3. 1 2 Daniel Schwartz (October 21, 2015). "Going deeper into Canada's 2015 federal election results". CBC News.
  4. ↑ Antony Green (October 21, 2015). "Canada 2015 - Would Preferential Voting Have Made a Difference?". blogs.abc.net.au. Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
  5. ↑ Eric Andrew-Gee (October 21, 2015). "How Canadians voted". The Globe and Mail. pp. A8–A9.
  6. ↑ "Summary table of judicial recounts". elections.ca. 2015.
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