Next Conservative Party (UK) leadership election

Conservative Party (UK) leadership election
United Kingdom
Incumbent Leader

David Cameron

During the 2015 general election campaign, David Cameron, the current Leader of the Conservative Party, announced that he would not seek a third termæ he is therefore expected to stand down before the next general election,[1] which would trigger the next Conservative Party leadership election. Although the date of the leadership election is not known, the winner could also succeed Cameron as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, as the Conservative Party is currently the majority party in the House of Commons.[2]

Candidates

Publicly expressed interest

As of May 2016, the following potential candidates have publicly expressed interest in running for party leader.

  1. ^ Tom McTague (13 February 2016). "David Cameron must renege on promise to step down before general election, says senior Tory". The Independent. 
  2. ^ "Cameron mocks Boris Johnson's second referendum strategy - Politics live". The Guardian. 22 February 2016. 
  3. ^ Jane Merrick (3 October 2015). "Justine Greening: The Tories can offer working-class people a 'British dream' with no bar to social mobility". The Independent. 
  4. ^ Rowena Mason (13 August 2015). "Boris Johnson hints at Conservative leadership vacancy from 2018". The Guardian. 
  5. ^ Gaby Hinsliff (3 February 2015). "Can Theresa May make it to the top?". The Guardian. 
  6. ^ Frances Perraudin (1 October 2015). "Nicky Morgan considers standing for Tory leader when Cameron quits". The Guardian. 
  7. ^ Lynsey Barber (8 July 2015). "July Budget 2015: George Osborne biggest Budget winner as chancellor becomes favourite for next Tory leader". CityAM. 

Potential

As of May 2016, the following individuals have been the subjects of speculation as potential leadership candidates.

Cabinet ministers
Junior ministers
Backbench MPs

Declined

The following individuals were the focus of media speculation as being possible leadership candidates, but have ruled out a bid.

Opinion polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Philip
Hammond		 Jeremy
Hunt		 Sajid
Javid		 Boris
Johnson		 Theresa
May		 Nicky
Morgan		 George
Osborne		 Other/
Undecided
YouGov[10] 23–26 February 2016 1005 Conservative Party members ± 4% — — 7% 43% 19% 1% 22% 7%
Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard[11][12] 14–17 November 2015 307 Conservative voters[lower-alpha 1] — — — — 32% 26% — 23% 19%
1,021 British residents[lower-alpha 2] ± 4% — — — 25% 19% — 11% 45%
Ipsos MORI[13] 19–23 September 2015 395 Conservative voters[lower-alpha 1] — — — — 29% 18% — 32% 20%
1,255 British residents[lower-alpha 2] — — — 27% 17% — 15% 41%
Survation/Huffington Post UK[14][15] 21–22 September 2015 303 Conservative voters[lower-alpha 1] — 2.0% 2.9% — 30.4% 16.3% 0.9% 26.2% 21.3%
1,008 British residents[lower-alpha 2] 1.9% 2% — 25% 11.2% 2.1% 14.6% 43.3%
  1. 1 2 3 People who are likely to vote Conservative in next general election.
  2. 1 2 3 Residents over 18 in Great Britain.

References

  1. 1 2 Kirkup, James (25 March 2015). "By 2020, the Conservative Party leader will be... not who you expect". Daily Telegraph.
  2. ↑ "Election results: Conservatives win majority". BBC News. 8 May 2015.
  3. ↑ Andrew Gimson (6 March 2014). "Andrew Gimson profiles Liz Truss, seen by some as a future Tory leader". ConservativeHome.
  4. ↑ Jane Merrick (9 May 2015). "Election 2015: Who could replace David Cameron as leader of the Tory party?". The Independent.
  5. ↑ "Tory rising star Penny Mordaunt set to join campaign to leave the EU". The Sun. 18 February 2016.
  6. ↑ Josh May (1 October 2015). "Owen Paterson develops checklist for future Tory leader candidates". PoliticsHome.
  7. ↑ "Conservative leadership race: Who could replace David Cameron?". Daily Telegraph. 24 March 2015.
  8. ↑ Owen Bennett (4 October 2015). "Watch Sajid Javid Rule Out Standing In The Tory Leadership Contest When David Cameron Quits". HuffPost UK.
  9. ↑ "Jeremy Hunt admits being Health Secretary is likely to be his 'last big job in politics'". Independent. 26 April 2016.
  10. ↑ "Tory membership warms to Brexit Boris". YouGov. 2 March 2016.
  11. ↑ "Public confidence in George Osborne slips – but few think Labour would do a better job". Ipsos MORI. 20 November 2015.
  12. ↑ Joe Murphy (20 November 2015). "Boris Johnson and Theresa May overtake George Osborne in Tory race to succeed David Cameron". Evening Standard.
  13. ↑ "Boris Johnson most popular prospective Conservative leader". Ipsos MORI. 1 October 2015.
  14. ↑ "Conservative Party Conference Poll" (PDF). Survation. 5 October 2015.
  15. ↑ Paul Waugh (1 October 2015). "Boris Johnson Is The Public's Choice As Next Tory Leader, Huffington Post UK/Survation Poll Finds". HuffPost UK.

See also

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