Conservative Party of Canada leadership election, 2017

Conservative leadership election, 2017
Date May 27, 2017
Convention TBD
Resigning leader Stephen Harper
Won by TBD
Entrance Fee C$100,000
($50,000 of which is a refundable compliance deposit)[1]
Spending limit $5,000,000

The 2017 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election will be held on May 27, 2017 to choose a successor to Stephen Harper, who led the Conservative Party of Canada as its first leader from 2004 following the merger of the Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative parties. Harper led the party through five general elections: the party increased its seat count in the House of Commons in 2004, formed two minority governments in 2006, and 2008, and then a majority government in 2011. Following the defeat of his party in the October 19, 2015 election, Harper tendered his resignation as party leader on election night.[2] In a statement, Conservative Party President John Walsh said he had spoken to Harper, "and he has instructed me to reach out to the newly elected parliamentary caucus to appoint an Interim Leader and to implement the leadership selection process."[3]

Interim leadership

Conservative Party president John Walsh's letter to caucus stated that only Members of Parliament (MPs) would vote for the interim leader, but Conservative Senators pointed out that the party constitution states that the entire parliamentary caucus votes.[4][5] The caucus allowed Senators to vote, declining to adopt the provisions of the Reform Act that would have only allowed MPs to vote.[6][7]

The caucus chose Rona Ambrose, MP for Sturgeon River—Parkland, Alberta and former Minister of Health, as interim leader at its first meeting on November 5, 2015 in a vote by preferential ballot.[8][9][10] Ambrose, as the interim leader, will also serve as Leader of the Official Opposition in the Parliament of Canada until a permanent leader is chosen. She defeated Candice Bergen, Diane Finley, Mike Lake, Rob Nicholson, Erin O'Toole, and the joint ticket of Denis Lebel and Michelle Rempel in the caucus vote.[11][12][13][10][14]

Under the party's constitution, Ambrose, as the interim leader, may not run for the permanent position.[12]

Leadership election timing

Following Harper's resignation, debate emerged within the Conservative Party regarding the timing of the leadership election. Initially, some members of the party’s national council were calling for a leadership convention as early as May 2016 according to Maclean's magazine.[15] However, interim leader Rona Ambrose has said there is a consensus among the party's caucus that the leadership election shouldn't be rushed and should be held sometime in 2017.[16][17][17][18] In a December 2015 interview, Ambrose said the party will take its time allowing all members, including those not already involved in politics, to build a strong candidacy. "If we take a little extra time, that will mean we'll have a better leadership race,"[19]

The Conservative Party's Leadership Election Organizing Committee (LEOC) met at Toronto's Albany Club January 15–17, 2016 to discuss the process for the Party to elect its next leader. Among its decisions, LEOC selected May 27, 2017 for Conservative Party members to elect their next leader.[20]

Rules

Only party members will be allowed to vote.[21] The fee for a party membership was raised to $25 from $15, an increase that was reversed on April 23, 2016 after criticisms that the move was "elitist".[22] Membership fees can only be paid via personal cheque or credit card. Cash payments will not be permitted. This new requirement is intended to prevent the election being dominated by new members, and to prevent anyone other than the individual member, such as a candidate's campaign, from signing up scores of members and paying the membership fees in cash out of campaign funds.[23]

Candidates must be members of the party for at least six months in order to be eligible. Voting will be on a One Member One Vote basis using a ranked ballot; however votes will be calculated so that each electoral district have equal weight with each electoral district allocated 100 points. Candidates will be assigned a point total based on his or her percentage of the vote in each electoral district. To win, a candidate must receive at least 16,901 points which would be a majority.[24][1]

To register, candidates must submit nomination forms signed by 300 party members from at least 30 electoral districts in at least seven different provinces and territories as well as pay a $50,000 non-refundable deposit and an additional $50,000 compliance deposit which is refundable provided the candidate complies with campaign rules, and fill out a 40 page questionnaire that asks for references, criminal background and credit checks, agreement with basic party principles, a list of social media accounts, and questions about possible controversial positions the candidate has taken in the past as well as affiliations and personal associations and behaviour that may be problematic. A party committee reviews the candidate's nomination form and may disqualify a potential candidate.[25] Candidates are allowed to spend a maximum of $5 million on their campaigns.[26]

Timeline

Candidates

Maxime Bernier

Maxime Bernier
Background

Maxime Bernier, 53, is the MP for Beauce, Quebec (2006–present) and Shadow Minister of Innovation (2015—2016). He served in the Harper government as Minister of State for Small Business and Tourism (2011–2015), Minister of Foreign Affairs (2007–2008), and Minister of Industry (2006–2007),[31][32][33][34] Bernier is considered a libertarian and advocate of limited government.[35][36][37] Prior to entering federal politics in 2006 Bernier, a lawyer by training, was vice-president of the Standard Life of Canada Insurance company and manager of corporate and international relations at the Commission des valeurs mobilières du Québec.[38]

Date candidacy announced: April 7, 2016[39]
Campaign website: www.maxime2017.ca
Supporters
Other information

Kellie Leitch

Kellie Leitch
Background

Kellie Leitch, 45, is the MP for Simcoe—Grey, Ontario (2011–present), and Shadow Minister of Health (2015–2016). In the Harper cabinet she was Minister of Labour and the Status of Women (2013–2015)[33][34][42][43][44][45] She is an orthopaedic pediatric surgeon at SickKids Hospital and is an associate professor at the University of Toronto.[46]

Date campaign announced: April 6, 2016[47]
Campaign website: [http:// ]
Supporters
Other information

Potential candidates

Publicly expressed interest

  1. ^ "Popular MP Chong considering Conservative leadership bid". Guelph Mercury. January 18, 2016. 
  2. ^ "Why Michael Chong would be a good fit as Conservative leader". The Globe and Mail. November 18, 2015. 
  3. ^ a b c d e "Who will replace Steven Harper as leader of the Conservatives?". National Post. October 20, 2015. Retrieved October 20, 2015. 
  4. ^ Cite error: The named reference bern was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  5. ^ a b c d e f g Cite error: The named reference CPCRace114 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  6. ^ a b "Tories face question of Harper’s replacement". The Hill Times. October 26, 2015. Retrieved October 26, 2015. 
  7. ^ "Clement on possible leadership bid: "Fools rush in"". iPoliitics. January 19, 2016. 
  8. ^ "Doug Ford supports Harper, but would consider Conservative Party leadership". The Globe and Mail. Retrieved November 30, 2015. 
  9. ^ "Election results promise repercussions for all party leaders". Chronicle-Herald. October 18, 2015. Retrieved October 19, 2015. 
  10. ^ "‘Not ruling it out’: Jason Kenney weighing Conservative leadership bid but ‘not close’ to a decision yet". National Post. April 29, 2016. Retrieved April 29, 2016. 
  11. ^ "Peter MacKay won’t rule out Conservative leadership run". Globe and Mail. January 25, 2016. Retrieved January 25, 2016. 
  12. ^ "Kevin O'Leary circling as key Conservatives test Tory leadership waters". CBC News. January 14, 2016. Retrieved January 14, 2016. 
  13. ^ Den Tandt, Michael (March 11, 2016). "Michael Den Tandt: Best leader for Tories might be the one they already have". National Post. 
  14. ^ Muise, Monique (March 27, 2016). "Plane Talk: Erin O’Toole on his possible leadership run". Global News. Retrieved March 27, 2016. 
  15. ^ Cite error: The named reference clem was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  16. ^ "10 possible contenders as Conservatives plan leadership race". CTV News. January 14, 2015. Retrieved January 16, 2015. 
  17. ^ "Michelle Rempel considers a run for leadership of the Conservative Party, talks being a young woman in politics". Storify. Retrieved November 30, 2015. 
  18. ^ "Michelle Rempel and the new conservatism". Toronto Sun. Postmedia Network. December 12, 2015. Retrieved December 19, 2015. 

Other prospective candidates

  1. ^ LeBlanc, Daniel (March 7, 2016). "Rookie MP Gérard Deltell a rising Conservative star". The Globe and Mail. Retrieved March 9, 2016. 
  2. ^ Simpson, Jeffrey (March 26, 2016). "A Quebec newcomer could tick the Tory leadership boxes". The Globe and Mail. Retrieved March 27, 2016. 
  3. ^ "Potential Conservative leadership candidates mull runs, muse publicly". The Canadian Press. 
  4. ^ "Power Play: Concerns with Conservatives". CTVNews. Retrieved April 24, 2016. 
  5. ^ Cite error: The named reference who was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  6. ^ Levitz, Stephanie (February 27, 2016). "Potential Tory leaderships candidates test the waters at weekend conference". National Newswatch. Retrieved February 27, 2016. 
  7. ^ Cite error: The named reference CPCRace114 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  8. ^ "Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall and the federal Conservative leadership: What comes next, if anything?". Regina Leader-Post. November 28, 2015. Retrieved December 7, 2015. 
  9. ^ "Premier Brad Wall says he won’t run for Conservative leadership". Regina Leader-Post. October 20, 2015. Retrieved October 20, 2015. 
  10. ^ "Wall emerges as hypothetical front-runner in Tory leadership race". Yahoo News. December 2, 2015. 
  11. ^ "Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall and the federal Conservative leadership: What comes next, if anything?". Regina Leader Post. November 28, 2015. 
  12. ^ Harper, Tim (December 6, 2015). "The shining conservative star". Cape Breton Post. Torstar Syndication Services. Retrieved December 7, 2015. 

Declined

Opinion polling

The polls below were conducted before nominations for the leadership closed and therefore include potential candidates for the leadership race. Rona Ambrose, as interim leader, is ineligible to run for the permanent leadership unless there is a change to the party's constitution.

Conservative Party members

Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rona
Ambrose
Maxime
Bernier
Michael
Chong
Tony
Clement
Jason
Kenney
Kellie
Leitch
Peter
MacKay
Kevin
O'Leary
Lisa
Raitt
Other/
Undecided
Forum Research April 5, 2016 PDF 112 ± 3.0% 9% 9% 7% 1% 20% 28% 2% Someone else 24%

Conservative Party supporters

Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rona
Ambrose
Maxime
Bernier
Michael
Chong
Tony
Clement
Jason
Kenney
Kellie
Leitch
Peter
MacKay
Kevin
O'Leary
Lisa
Raitt
Other/
Undecided
Mainstreet
Research
April 26-27, 2016 [62] 1,676 ± 2.4% 26% 6% 3% 7% 6% 2% 16% 20% 1% Someone else 3%
Undecided 10%
Mainstreet
Research
April 26-27, 2016 [63] 1,676 ± 2.4% 8% 5% 8% 7% 4% 23% 22% 3% Someone else 4%
Undecided 16%
EKOS April 15, 2016 HTML 1,176 ± 2.9% 4% 2% 23% 17% 5% Stephen Harper 28%
Someone else 17%
Don't know 5%
Forum Research April 5, 2016 PDF 408 ± 3.0% 17% 5% 8% 1% 22% 24% 4% Someone else 19%
Abacus Data March 18, 2016 HTML 1,500 ± 2.6% 5% 5% 6% 12% 1% 36% 27% 8%
Mainstreet
Research
January 15, 2016 HTML 4,937 ± 1.4% 4% 8% 3% 25% 23% 4% Undecided 29%
Someone else 3%
Abacus Data January 12, 2016 HTML 1,500 ± 2.6% 5% 13% 19% 4% 42% 13% Bernard Lord 5%
Abacus Data November 25, 2015 HTML 360 ± 2.6% 6% 3% 12% 3% 35% 8% Brad Wall 17%
Jean Charest 11%
Doug Ford 4%
Forum Research November 7, 2015 PDF 334 ± 3.0% 12% 7% 16% 4% 32% John Baird 18%
Michelle Rempel 7%
Rob Nicholson 4%

All Canadians

Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rona
Ambrose
Maxime
Bernier
Michael
Chong
Tony
Clement
Jason
Kenney
Kellie
Leitch
Peter
MacKay
Kevin
O'Leary
Lisa
Raitt
Other/
Undecided
EKOS April 15, 2016 HTML 1,176 ± 2.9% 6% 3% 20% 9% 4% Someone else 36%
Don't know 13%
Stephen Harper 11%
Forum
Research
April 5, 2016 PDF 1,455 ± 3.0% 10% 9% 6% 2% 18% 14% 6% Someone else 35%
Abacus Data March 18, 2016 HTML 1,500 ± 2.6% 10% 6% 9% 8% 3% 33% 18% 12%
Abacus Data November 25, 2015 HTML 360 ± 2.6% 8% 7% 10% 4% 31% 10% Jean Charest 15%
Brad Wall 9%
Doug Ford 8%
Forum
Research
November 7, 2015 PDF 334 ± 3.0% 14% 7% 11% 9% 29% John Baird 14%
Michelle Rempel 11%
Rob Nicholson 6%

References

  1. 1 2 3 4 http://www.conservative.ca/media/documents/LEOC_2016_EN.pdf
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  6. "Michael Chong urges MPs to 'reclaim their influence' as Reform Act takes effect". CBC News. October 27, 2015. Retrieved October 29, 2015.
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  8. "Rona Ambrose elected interim Conservative leader". CTVNews. Retrieved November 5, 2015.
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  10. 1 2 "Erin O'Toole To Run For Interim Conservative Leadership". Huffington Post. Canadian Press. October 26, 2015. Retrieved October 26, 2015.
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  12. 1 2 Spiteri, Ray (October 23, 2015). "Rob Nicholson wants to become interim leader of the federal Conservatives". National Post. Retrieved November 1, 2015.
  13. "Rona Ambrose, Mike Lake to run for Conservative interim leadership". Maclean's. October 30, 2015. Retrieved November 1, 2015.
  14. "Here’s something new: Rempel and Lebel want to be co-leaders of the Tories". David Akin's On the Hill. October 31, 2015. Retrieved October 31, 2015.
  15. Paul Wells. "Conservative caucus unrest mounts". Macleans.ca. Retrieved November 5, 2015.
  16. 1 2 Ditchburn, Jennifer (December 7, 2015). "Conservative leadership committee struck, plan to set voting date soon". Yahoo! News. Canadian Press. Retrieved December 11, 2015.
  17. 1 2 3 4 "Conservative Leadership Race: Tories May Put Off Vote Until 2017". Huffington Post. Canadian Press. November 29, 2015. Retrieved November 29, 2015.
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  20. 1 2 "Mark your calendars, federal Conservatives: You’ll be electing a new leader on May 27, 2017". National Post. Retrieved January 19, 2016.
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