Opinion polling for the 2010 United Kingdom general election

In the run up to the general election of 2010, several polling organisations carried out opinion polling in regards to voting intention in Great Britain (i.e. the UK excluding Northern Ireland, which is usually excluded from such voting intention surveys). Results of such polls are displayed below.

The election took place on 6 May 2010, coinciding with the local elections. The previous general election was held on 5 May 2005.

Rumours in autumn 2007 that Gordon Brown was about to call a general election imminently put all polling organisations, the press and political parties on an election footing, but he eventually announced that he would not seek a dissolution. According to many media and political figures, this was because he believed that Labour was likely to lose its majority in a snap general election. Gordon Brown has maintained that Labour would have won but he did not believe an early election was in the national interest.

Background

Since each MP is elected separately by the first past the post voting system, it is impossible to precisely project a clear election outcome from overall national shares of the vote. Not only can individual constituencies vary markedly from overall voting trends, but individual countries and regions within the nation may have a very different electoral contest that is not properly reflected in overall share of the vote figures.

Therefore, the first past the post system means that the number of MPs elected may not reflect the overall popular vote share across the parties. Thus, it is not necessarily the party with the largest share of the popular vote that ends up with the largest number of MPs. (See details of the elections in 1951 and February 1974) Since 1935 no party has achieved more than 50% of the popular vote in a British general election. The voting system favours parties with relatively concentrated support: a widely distributed vote leaves a party at risk of getting a large vote share but doing poorly in terms of numbers of seats (as the SDP-Liberal Alliance did in the 1980s), whereas parties with localised votes can win seats with a relatively small share of the vote.

That said, in previous elections, approximate forecasting of results were achieved by assuming that the swing in each individual constituency will be the same across the country. This system, known as uniform national swing (UNS) is used by much of the media in Britain to assess and extrapolate electoral fortunes from opinion poll data, though there has been criticism that such predictions may be naive and unreliable, even from providers of such data.^[1] By using UNS projections, several media commentators and politicians have suggested that significant swings towards the Liberal Democrats in the opinion polls may not necessarily amount to significant gains in terms of parliamentary seats, including predictions that even if the Liberal Democrats had the most votes, and Labour the least, it could be the case that Labour retains the most seats while the Lib Dems have the fewest.^[2][3][4]

Normally governments can easily survive for a full parliamentary term on a majority of more than 20 seats over all other parties. Below that level there is a danger of by-elections and MPs crossing the floor of the House of Commons reducing the government to a minority such that it would be at increased risk of losing a vote of no confidence.

Polling since 2005

Immediately following the previous general election, the Labour party held a double-digit lead in opinion polls. However, over the course of 2005, this lead was eroded somewhat. By December 2005, the Conservative party showed its first small leads in opinion polls following the controversial 90 days detention proposals and the election of David Cameron to the leadership of the Conservative party.^[5]

In early 2006, opinion polls were increasingly mixed with small leads given alternately to Labour and Conservative. From the May 2006 local elections, in which Labour suffered significant losses, the Conservatives took a small single-digit lead in opinion polls. Labour regained the lead in June 2007 following the resignation of Tony Blair and the appointment of Gordon Brown as prime minister. From November 2007, the Conservatives again took the lead and, from then, extended their lead into double digits, particularly in response to the MPs' expenses scandal and the economic recession along with the increased unemployment that resulted from it, although there was some evidence that the lead narrowed slightly towards the end of 2009. By the end of February 2010, Ipsos MORI, ICM, YouGov and ComRes polls had all found a sufficient narrowing of the Conservative lead for media speculation about a hung parliament to return.^[6]

From 15 April 2010, following the first televised debate of the party leaders, however, polling data changed dramatically, with the Lib Dem vote proportion rising to 28–33%, and the Conservative vote proportion falling. In some polls, the Liberal Democrats took the lead from the Conservatives. Under UNS projections, this made a hung parliament highly probable, if Lib Dem performance had persisted.^[7]

After the second debate on 22 April the polls, on average, placed the Conservatives in the lead on 33%, the Liberal Democrats in second on 30% and Labour in third on 28%. If these polls had reflected the election day results on a uniform swing nationwide, Labour would have had the most seats in a hung Parliament.

Exit poll

At 10 pm on election day, coinciding with the closure of the polls, the results of an exit poll collected for the BBC, Sky and ITV news services were announced. Data were gathered from individuals at 130 polling stations around the country. The results of the poll initially suggested a hung parliament with the Conservative Party 19 seats from a controlling majority; this was later adjusted to 21 seats. The distribution of seats amongst the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats and other parties was initially suggested to be 307, 255, 59 and 29 respectively,^[8] although the seat numbers were later changed to 303, 251, 69, and 27 respectively.^[9]

Initial reaction to the exit poll by various commentators was of surprise at the apparent poor prospects for the Liberal Democrats^[10] because it was odds with many opinion polls undertaken in the previous weeks. However, the actual results showed that the exit poll was a good predictor.

A later BBC Exit poll (05:36 BST) predicted the Conservatives on 306, 20 short of an overall majority, Labour on 262, and Liberal Democrats on 55.^[9]

Graphical summaries

The following graph shows ICM poll results since the last general election. Results for Conservative are in Blue, Labour in Red, Liberal Democrat Gold and Others in Grey. Other polling houses may show different results, and all polls are subject to a margin of error and possible house bias.

The following graph shows YouGov poll results since the calling of the general election.

The following graph shows ComRes poll results recorded over the period April 11 – May 6, 2010, including annotations of the three TV debates.

Poll results

Poll results are initially listed in reverse chronological order showing the most recent first, using the date the fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

The figure given in the 'lead' column before the televised leaders' debates is the lead held by Labour or the Conservatives over the second placed of the two parties. For figures after the first debate, after which the Liberal Democrats were placed in first or second position in some polls, the second placed party is also noted in the column where applicable.

Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council, and abide by its disclosure rules. BPIX is not a member of the BPC, and does not publish detailed methodology and findings.

2010

Date(s) Conducted	Polling Organisation/Client	Sample Size	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrats	Other	Lead
6 May	Election Results (GB only)	29,691,380	29.7%	36.9%	23.6%	9.8%	7.2% over Lab
5 May	Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard	1,216	29%	36%	27%	8%	7% over Lab
4–5 May	YouGov/The Sun	6,483	28%	35%	28%	9%	7% over Lab/LD
4–5 May	Harris Interactive/Daily Mail	4,014	29%	35%	27%	7%	6% over Lab
4–5 May	Populus/The Times	2,505	28%	37%	27%	8%	9% over Lab
4–5 May	Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com	2,283	24%	36%	29%	11%	7% over LD
4–5 May	Opinium/Daily Express	1,383	27%	35%	26%	12%	8% over Lab
4–5 May	ComRes/ITV/The Independent	1,025	28%	37%	28%	7%	9% over Lab/LD
3–4 May	ICM/The Guardian	1,527	28%	36%	26%	10%	8% over Lab
3–4 May	YouGov/The Sun	1,461	30%	35%	24%	11%	5% over Lab
29 Apr–4 May	TNS-BMRB	1,864	27%	33%	29%	11%	4% over LD
28 Apr–4 May	Harris Interactive/Metro	786	26%	36%	28%	10%	8% over LD
2–3 May	ComRes/ITV/The Independent	1,024	29%	37%	26%	8%	8% over Lab
2–3 May	YouGov/The Sun	1,455	28%	35%	28%	9%	7% over Lab/LD
30 Apr – 3 May	Opinium/Daily Express	1,870	28%	33%	27%	12%	5% over Lab
1–2 May	YouGov/The Sun	1,475	28%	34%	29%	9%	5% over LD
1–2 May	ComRes/ITV/The Independent	1,024	29%	37%	26%	8%	8% over Lab
30 Apr – 2 May	ICM/The Guardian	1,026	28%	33%	28%	12%	5% over Lab/LD
30 Apr – 1 May	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,483	27%	35%	28%	10%	7% over LD
30 Apr – 1 May	ComRes/The Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror	1,019	28%	38%	25%	9%	10% over Lab
30 Apr – 1 May	BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11]	2,136	27%	34%	30%	9%	4% over LD
30 Apr	YouGov/The Sun	1,412	28%	34%	28%	10%	6% over Lab/LD
30 Apr	ICM/Sunday Telegraph	1,019	29%	36%	27%	8%	7% over Lab
29–30 Apr	Angus Reid Public Opinion/Sunday Express	1,874	23%	35%	29%	13%	6% over LD
29–30 Apr	Harris Interactive/Daily Mail	1,020	24%	33%	32%	11%	1% over LD
29 Apr	The third and final Prime Ministerial debate was held. It featured Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg, and was produced by the BBC, being broadcast on BBC One and Sky News.
28–29 Apr	YouGov/The Sun	1,623	27%	34%	28%	11%	6% over LD
27–28 Apr	YouGov/The Sun	1,530	27%	34%	31%	8%	3% over LD
28 Apr	Gordon Brown is caught on a microphone making unguarded comments in which he describes a voter he had just met on the campaign trail, Gillian Duffy, as a "sort of bigoted woman".
26–27 Apr	YouGov/The Sun	1,598	29%	33%	28%	10%	4% over Lab
26–27 Apr	ComRes/ITV News/The Independent	1,006	29%	36%	26%	9%	7% over Lab
26–27 Apr	Populus/The Times	1,510	27%	36%	28%	8%	8% over LD
21–27 Apr	TNS-BMRB	2,078	27%	34%	30%	9%	4% over LD
25–26 Apr	YouGov/The Sun	1,491	28%	33%	29%	10%	4% over LD
25–26 Apr	ComRes/ITV News/The Independent	1,005	29%	33%	29%	9%	4% over Lab
23–26 Apr	Opinium/Daily Express	1,942	25%	34%	28%	13%	6% over LD
23–26 Apr	Angus Reid Public Opinion/The Economist	2,433	23%	33%	30%	14%	3% over LD
20–26 Apr	Harris Interactive/Metro	1,678	25%	32%	30%	13%	2% over LD
24–25 Apr	YouGov/The Sun	1,466	28%	34%	30%	8%	4% over LD
24–25 Apr	ComRes/ITV News/The Independent	1,003	28%	32%	31%	9%	1% over LD
23–25 Apr	ICM/The Guardian	1,031	28%	33%	30%	8%	3% over LD
23–24 Apr	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,412	27%	35%	28%	9%	7% over LD
23–24 Apr	ComRes/The Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror	1,006	28%	34%	29%	9%	5% over LD
23–24 Apr	BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11]	2,139	26%	34%	30%	10%	4% over LD
23 Apr	ICM/Sunday Telegraph	1,020	26%	35%	31%	8%	4% over LD
23 Apr	Ipsos MORI/News of the World	1,245	30%	36%	23%	11%	6% over Lab
22–23 Apr	YouGov/The Sun	1,381	29%	34%	29%	8%	5% over Lab/LD
22–23 Apr	Harris Interactive/Daily Mail	1,048	26%	34%	29%	11%	5% over LD
22 Apr	The second televised Prime Ministerial debate, of three in the election campaign, was held featuring Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg, and was produced by Sky, being broadcast on Sky News and the BBC News Channel.
21–22 Apr	YouGov/The Sun	1,576	29%	34%	28%	9%	5% over Lab
20–21 Apr	YouGov/The Sun	1,545	27%	33%	31%	9%	2% over LD
19–20 Apr	YouGov/The Sun	1,595	26%	31%	34%	9%	3% over Con
19–20 Apr	Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com	1,953	23%	32%	33%	12%	1% over Con
19–20 Apr	ComRes/ITV News/The Independent	1,015	25%	35%	27%	13%	8% over LD
19–20 Apr	Populus/The Times	1,501	28%	32%	31%	9%	1% over LD
18–20 Apr	Ipsos MORI/The Standard	1,253	28%	32%	32%	8%	0%
14–20 Apr	TNS-BMRB	1,953	29%	34%	30%	7%	4% over LD
18–19 Apr	ComRes/ITV News/The Independent	1,012	26%	35%	26%	13%	9% over Lab/LD
18–19 Apr	YouGov/The Sun	1,509	27%	33%	31%	8%	2% over LD
16–19 Apr	Opinium/Daily Express	1,957	26%	32%	29%	13%	3% over LD
16–19 Apr	Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com	2,004	24%	32%	32%	12%	0%
14–19 Apr	Harris Interactive/Metro	1,792	26%	31%	30%	13%	1% over LD
17–18 Apr	ComRes/ITV News/The Independent	1,003	28%	32%	28%	12%	4% over Lab/LD
17–18 Apr	YouGov/The Sun	1,433	26%	32%	33%	8%	1% over Con
16–18 Apr	ICM/The Guardian	1,024	28%	33%	30%	9%	3% over LD
16–17 Apr	BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11]	2,149	28%	31%	32%	9%	1% over Con
16–17 Apr	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,490	30%	33%	29%	8%	3% over Lab
16–17 Apr	ComRes/The Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror	1,006	27%	31%	29%	13%	2% over LD
15–16 Apr	YouGov/The Sun	1,290	28%	33%	30%	9%	3% over LD
15 Apr	ComRes/ITV News	4,032	28%	35%	24%	13%	7% over Lab
15 Apr	The first ever televised Prime Ministerial debate, and the first of three in the election campaign, was held. The debate featured Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg, and was produced and broadcast by ITV.
14–15 Apr	ICM/Sunday Telegraph	1,033	29%	34%	27%	10%	5%
14–15 Apr	YouGov/The Sun	1,490	31%	37%	22%	10%	6%
14 Apr	The Liberal Democrats launch their 2010 election manifesto.
13–14 Apr	YouGov/The Sun	1,578	32%	41%	18%	9%	9%
13 Apr	The Conservative Party launches its 2010 election manifesto.
12–13 Apr	ComRes/ITV News/The Independent	1,001	29%	35%	21%	15%	6%
12–13 Apr	YouGov/The Sun	1,583	31%	39%	20%	9%	8%
8–13 Apr	Harris Interactive/Metro	1,523	27%	36%	23%	14%	9%
7–13 Apr	TNS-BMRB	1,916	33%	36%	22%	9%	3%
12 Apr	Populus/The Times	1,525	33%	36%	21%	9%	3%
12 Apr	The Labour Party launches its 2010 election manifesto.
11–12 Apr	ComRes/ITV News/The Independent	1,002	31%	36%	19%	14%	5%
11–12 Apr	Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com	2,006	28%	38%	22%	12%	10%
11–12 Apr	YouGov/The Sun	1,493	33%	39%	20%	8%	6%
9–12 Apr	Opinium/Daily Express	1,825	31%	39%	17%	13%	8%
10–11 Apr	ComRes/ITV News/The Independent	1,004	30%	37%	20%	13%	7%
10–11 Apr	YouGov/The Sun	1,455	31%	37%	20%	12%	6%
9–11 Apr	ICM/The Guardian	1,024	31%	37%	20%	11%	6%
9–10 Apr	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,431	32%	40%	18%	10%	8%
9–10 Apr	ComRes/The Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror	1,001	32%	39%	16%	13%	7%
9–10 Apr	BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11]	2,051	31%	38%	20%	11%	7%
8–9 Apr	YouGov/The Sun	1,527	30%	40%	20%	10%	10%
7–8 Apr	Harris Interative/Daily Mail	1,012	27%	37%	22%	14%	10%
7–8 Apr	YouGov/The Sun	1,626	31%	40%	18%	11%	9%
7 Apr	ICM/Sunday Telegraph	1,032	30%	38%	21%	10%	8%
6–7 Apr	YouGov/The Sun	1,484	32%	37%	19%	12%	5%
6–7 Apr	Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com	2,193	26%	37%	22%	14%	11%
6 Apr	Populus/The Times	1,507	32%	39%	21%	8%	7%
6 Apr	General election officially called: Prime Minister Gordon Brown announces HM The Queen has agreed to a dissolution of Parliament, allowing the general election to take place on 6 May.
5–6 Apr	YouGov/The Sun	1,456	32%	40%	17%	11%	8%
31 Mar-6 Apr	Harris Interactive/Metro	2,080	28%	37%	20%	15%	9%
4–5 Apr	YouGov/The Sun	1,620	31%	41%	18%	11%	10%
2–5 Apr	Opinium/Daily Express	1,903	29%	39%	17%	15%	10%
1–3 Apr	ICM/Guardian	1,001	33%	37%	21%	9%	4%
1–2 Apr	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,503	29%	39%	20%	12%	10%
31 Mar-1 Apr	Angus Reid Public Opinion/Sunday Express	1,991	27%	38%	20%	15%	11%
31 Mar-1 Apr	YouGov/The Sun	1,552	31%	39%	19%	11%	8%
30–31 Mar	ICM/Guardian	1,003	29%	38%	23%	10%	9%
30–31 Mar	YouGov/The Sun	1,615	32%	38%	19%	11%	6%
30–31 Mar	Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com	2,013	28%	37%	22%	13%	9%
29–30 Mar	YouGov/The Sun	1,681	31%	38%	19%	12%	7%
24–30 Mar	TNS-BMRB	1,819	33%	38%	19%	10%	5%
29 Mar	Ask the Chancellors is aired on Channel 4.
28–29 Mar	YouGov/The Sun	1,614	32%	39%	18%	11%	7%
26–29 Mar	Opinium/Daily Express	1,780	28%	38%	18%	16%	10%
23–29 Mar	Harris Interactive/Metro	1,133	27%	37%	19%	17%	10%
26–28 Mar	ComRes/The Independent	1,001	30%	37%	20%	13%	7%
25–26 Mar	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,533	32%	37%	19%	13%	5%
25–26 Mar	BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11]	800	30%	37%	20%	13%	7%
24–25 Mar	ICM/News of the World	1,003	31%	39%	19%	11%	8%
24–25 Mar	YouGov/The Sun	1,483	33%	37%	18%	12%	4%
24 Mar	Labour Chancellor Alistair Darling announces the budget for Her Majesty's Government.
23–24 Mar	YouGov/The Sun	1,554	34%	36%	17%	13%	2%
22–23 Mar	YouGov/The Sun	1,756	33%	37%	18%	12%	4%
22 Mar	It is announced that David Cameron's wife, Samantha, is pregnant.
21–22 Mar	YouGov/The Sun	1,560	32%	36%	20%	12%	4%
19–22 Mar	Ipsos MORI/Daily Mirror	1,503	30%	35%	21%	14%	5%
19–22 Mar	Opinium/Daily Express	1,975	30%	37%	15%	18%	7%
17–22 Mar	Harris Interactive/Metro	2,117	28%	35%	17%	20%	7%
20 Mar	British Airways cabin crew begin the first of two multi-day strikes in opposition to a series of changes the airlines has introduced in an attempt to cut costs.
18–19 Mar	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,547	31%	38%	19%	13%	7%
18 Mar	Gordon Brown admits that defence spending "did not rise in real terms every year under Labour", contradicting the evidence he gave to the Iraq Inquiry and the House of Commons seven days previously.
17–18 Mar	ICM/News of the World	1,002	32%	38%	19%	10%	6%
17–18 Mar	YouGov/The Sun	1,671	32%	36%	20%	12%	4%
16–17 Mar	YouGov/The Sun	1,676	32%	36%	20%	11%	4%
15–16 Mar	Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com	2,003	26%	39%	21%	15%	13%
15–16 Mar	YouGov/The Sun	1,460	32%	37%	19%	12%	5%
10–16 Mar	Harris Interactive/Metro	1,934	28%	36%	18%	18%	8%
14–15 Mar	YouGov/The Sun	1,466	32%	37%	21%	10%	5%
12–15 Mar	Opinium/Daily Express	1,951	28%	39%	16%	17%	11%
12–14 Mar	ICM/The Guardian	1,002	31%	40%	20%	9%	9%
11–12 Mar	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,507	33%	37%	17%	12%	4%
10–11 Mar	ICM/Sunday Telegraph	1,007	31%	38%	21%	10%	7%
10–11 Mar	YouGov/The Sun	1,434	34%	37%	17%	12%	3%
9–10 Mar	YouGov/The Sun	1,473	32%	37%	17%	14%	5%
9–10 Mar	Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com	2,003	26%	39%	18%	17%	13%
8–9 Mar	YouGov/The Sun	1,524	32%	36%	20%	12%	4%
7–8 Mar	YouGov/The Sun	1,747	34%	39%	16%	11%	5%
5–8 Mar	Opinium/Daily Express	1,960	30%	37%	16%	16%	7%
3–8 Mar	Harris Interactive/Metro	1,498	29%	37%	18%	16%	8%
4–5 Mar	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,558	33%	38%	17%	12%	5%
4–5 Mar	BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11]	5,655	34%	36%	18%	12%	2%
3–4 Mar	ICM/News of the World	1,005	31%	40%	18%	11%	9%
3–4 Mar	YouGov/The Sun	1,640	32%	38%	17%	13%	6%
2–3 Mar	YouGov/The Sun	1,661	32%	38%	19%	12%	6%
25 Feb – 3 Mar	TNS-BMRB	1,973	31%	39%	19%	11%	8%
1–2 Mar	YouGov/The Sun	1,479	33%	38%	16%	13%	5%
28 Feb-1 Mar	YouGov/The Sun	1,505	32%	39%	17%	12%	7%
26–28 Feb	ComRes/The Independent	1,005	32%	37%	19%	12%	5%
25–26 Feb	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,436	35%	37%	17%	11%	2%
26 Feb	The Office for National Statistics revises fourth quarter GDP figures for 2009 from growth of 0.1% to 0.3%.
24–25 Feb	YouGov/The Sun	1,472	33%	39%	16%	12%	6%
23–24 Feb	YouGov/The Sun	1,473	32%	38%	19%	10%	6%
18–24 Feb	TNS-BMRB	1,954	32%	36%	21%	12%	4%
22–23 Feb	YouGov/The Sun	1,469	32%	38%	17%	12%	6%
21–22 Feb	YouGov/The Sun	1,578	33%	39%	17%	12%	6%
19–22 Feb	Ipsos MORI/Daily Telegraph	1,533	32%	37%	19%	12%	5%
16–22 Feb	Harris Interative/Metro	918	30%	39%	22%	9%	9%
19–21 Feb	ICM/The Guardian	1,004	30%	37%	20%	13%	7%
18–19 Feb	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,472	33%	39%	17%	11%	6%
16–19 Feb	Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com	4,004	26%	38%	19%	16%	12%
17–18 Feb	YouGov/The Sun	1,558	32%	39%	18%	11%	7%
16–17 Feb	ComRes/Theos	1,085	30%	38%	20%	11%	8%
16–17 Feb	Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com	2,002	26%	40%	18%	16%	14%
16–17 Feb	YouGov/The Sun	2,145	30%	39%	18%	13%	9%
10–11 Feb	ComRes/The Independent	1,009	29%	40%	21%	10%	11%
9–10 Feb	Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com	2,002	25%	38%	20%	16%	13%
5–7 Feb	Populus/The Times	1,502	30%	40%	20%	11%	10%
3–4 Feb	ICM/Sunday Telegraph	1,001	30%	39%	20%	11%	9%
29–31 Jan	ComRes/The Independent	1,001	31%	38%	19%	12%	7%
29–30 Jan	BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11]	1,524	30%	39%	18%	13%	9%
28–29 Jan	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,054	31%	38%	19%	12%	7%
26–28 Jan	YouGov/The People	2,044	31%	40%	18%	11%	9%
26–28 Jan	Ipsos MORI/Daily Mirror	1,001	32%	40%	16%	12%	8%
26–27 Jan	Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com	2,004	24%	40%	19%	16%	16%
26 Jan	The Office for National Statistics announces that the UK economy exited recession in the fourth quarter of 2009 with growth of 0.1%.
22–24 Jan	ICM/The Guardian	1,000	29%	40%	21%	10%	11%
20–21 Jan	ComRes/Sunday Mirror	1,004	29%	38%	19%	14%	9%
20 Jan	The unemployment level unexpectedly falls to 7.8%, the first fall since May 2008.
14–15 Jan	YouGov/Sunday Times	2,033	31%	40%	18%	11%	9%
13–14 Jan	ComRes/The Independent on Sunday	1,005	29%	42%	19%	10%	13%
9–10 Jan	Angus Reid Strategies/PoliticalBetting.com	2,010	24%	40%	20%	17%	16%
8–10 Jan	Populus/The Times	1,509	28%	41%	19%	12%	13%
6–7 Jan	ICM/Sunday Telegraph	1,003	30%	40%	18%	12%	10%
6–7 Jan	YouGov/The Sun	2,832	30%	42%	16%	12%	12%
6 Jan	Former Cabinet ministers Geoff Hoon and Patricia Hewitt call for a secret ballot on Gordon Brown's leadership. The plot receives little support from Labour MPs, although support for Brown from his cabinet ministers appears only lukewarm.
5–6 Jan	YouGov/The Sun	4,167	31%	40%	17%	12%	9%

2009

Date(s) Conducted	Polling Organisation/Client	Sample Size	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrats	Other	Lead
29–30 Dec	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	1,848	30%	40%	17%	12%	10%
19–20 Dec	ComRes/The Independent	1,006	29%	38%	19%	14%	9%
16–18 Dec	Angus Reid Strategies/Political Betting.com	2,010	24%	40%	20%	15%	16%
15–17 Dec	YouGov/The People	2,052	28%	40%	18%	14%	12%
11–13 Dec	ICM/The Guardian	1,009	31%	40%	18%	11%	9%
11–13 Dec	Ipsos MORI/The Observer	1,017	26%	43%	20%	12%	17%
10–11 Dec	YouGov/Sunday Times	2,044	31%	40%	16%	13%	9%
10–11 Dec	BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11]	2,036	30%	41%	17%	12%	11%
9–10 Dec	ComRes/The Independent on Sunday	1,001	24%	41%	21%	14%	17%
8–10 Dec	Angus Reid Strategies/PoliticalBetting.com	2,002	23%	40%	19%	19%	17%
9 Dec	Alistair Darling delivers his Pre-Budget Report, which includes an increase in National Insurance contributions and a one-off 50% tax on bankers' bonuses.
4–6 Dec	Populus/The Times	1,505	30%	38%	20%	12%	8%
3–4 Dec	YouGov/Sunday Times	2,095	27%	40%	18%	15%	13%
2–3 Dec	ICM/Sunday Telegraph	1,001	29%	40%	19%	12%	11%
27–29 Nov	ComRes/The Independent	1,003	27%	37%	20%	16%	10%
24–26 Nov	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,004	29%	39%	19%	13%	10%
20–23 Nov	Angus Reid Strategies/PoliticalBetting.com	2,004	22%	39%	21%	18%	17%
13–15 Nov	Ipsos MORI/The Observer	1,006	31%	37%	17%	13%	6%
13–15 Nov	ICM/The Guardian	1,010	29%	42%	19%	10%	13%
12–13 Nov	YouGov/Sunday Times	2,026	27%	41%	18%	14%	14%
12 Nov	Glasgow North East by-election: Labour wins seat with a majority of over 8,000.
11–12 Nov	ComRes/The Independent on Sunday	1,007	25%	39%	17%	19%	14%
6–8 Nov	Populus/The Times	1,504	29%	39%	18%	14%	10%
4–6 Nov	Angus Reid Strategies/PoliticalBetting.com	2,000	24%	38%	20%	17%	14%
4–5 Nov	YouGov/Channel 4 News	1,021	27%	41%	17%	16%	14%
3 Nov	Conservative leader David Cameron announces a future Conservative government would not offer a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty in the light of its ratification by all 27 EU countries.
28–29 Oct	ICM/Sunday Telegraph	1,007	25%	42%	21%	13%	17%
27–29 Oct	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,024	28%	41%	16%	15%	13%
23–25 Oct	ComRes/The Independent	1,004	27%	40%	18%	15%	13%
22–23 Oct	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	1,314	27%	40%	19%	14%	13%
22 Oct	The British National Party leader, Nick Griffin, appears on 'Question Time' for the first time.
16–18 Oct	ICM/The Guardian	1,002	27%	44%	18%	11%	17%
16–18 Oct	Ipsos MORI	996	26%	43%	19%	11%	17%
15–16 Oct	Angus Reid Strategies/PoliticalBetting.com	2,077	23%	40%	20%	15%	17%
15–16 Oct	YouGov/Sunday Times	2,025	30%	41%	17%	12%	11%
14–15 Oct	ComRes/The Independent on Sunday	1,008	28%	40%	19%	13%	12%
9–11 Oct	Populus/The Times	1,509	30%	40%	18%	12%	10%
8–9 Oct	BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11]	2,136	29%	43%	16%	12%	14%
8–9 Oct	BPIX/Daily Mail[11]	2,215	28%	42%	18%	12%	14%
8–9 Oct	YouGov/The Sun	2,161	28%	42%	18%	12%	14%
8–9 Oct	YouGov/Sky News	1,064	27%	44%	17%	12%	17%
7–9 Oct	ICM/News of the World	1,008	26%	45%	18%	10%	19%
7–8 Oct	YouGov/Sky News	1,074	31%	40%	18%	11%	9%
6–7 Oct	YouGov/Sky News	1,039	29%	43%	17%	11%	14%
5–6 Oct	YouGov/Sky News	1,223	28%	41%	18%	13%	13%
5–8 Oct	The Conservatives hold their 2009 party conference in Manchester
4–5 Oct	YouGov/Sky News	1,102	27%	40%	20%	13%	13%
3 Oct	YouGov/The People	2,027	28%	40%	18%	14%	12%
1–2 Oct	YouGov/Sky News	1,053	29%	41%	17%	13%	12%
30 Sep-1 Oct	ComRes/The Independent on Sunday	1,022	28%	40%	19%	13%	12%
30 Sep-1 Oct	YouGov/Sky News	1,085	26%	40%	20%	15%	14%
29–30 Sep	YouGov/Sky News	1,078	30%	37%	21%	12%	7%
28–29 Sep	YouGov/Sky News	1,024	29%	40%	18%	13%	11%
27–28 Sep	YouGov/Sky News	1,051	29%	39%	20%	13%	10%
27 Sep-1 Oct	Labour hold their 2009 party conference in Brighton
25–27 Sep	Ipsos MORI	1,003	24%	36%	25%	15%	11% over LD
25–27 Sep	ComRes/The Independent	1,003	23%	38%	23%	16%	15%
27 Sep^P	BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11]	Unknown[11]	25%	40%	22%	13%	15%
24–25 Sep	YouGov/Sky News	1,059	24%	40%	21%	14%	16%
23–24 Sep	YouGov/Sky News	1,057	25%	38%	23%	14%	13%
23–24 Sep	ICM/News of the World	1,003	26%	40%	23%	11%	14%
22–24 Sep	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,026	26%	39%	20%	15%	13%
22–23 Sep	YouGov/Sky News	1,036	28%	38%	19%	15%	10%
21–22 Sep	YouGov/Sky News	1,062	27%	39%	20%	13%	12%
20–21 Sep	YouGov/Sky News	1,081	30%	39%	17%	14%	9%
19–23 Sep	The Liberal Democrats hold their 2009 party conference in Bournemouth
18–20 Sep	ICM/The Guardian	1,001	26%	43%	19%	12%	17%
11–13 Sep	Populus/The Times	1,506	27%	41%	18%	14%	14%
10–11 Sep	YouGov/Sunday Times	2,009	27%	41%	17%	15%	14%
4–6 Sep	ComRes/The Independent	1,005	24%	40%	21%	15%	16%
4–6 Sep	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	1,573	27%	40%	18%	15%	13%
27–28 Aug	YouGov/The Sun	1,996	28%	42%	17%	14%	14%
25–27 Aug	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,199	26%	42%	18%	14%	16%
21–23 Aug	Ipsos MORI	1,013	26%	43%	17%	13%	17%
21–23 Aug	ICM/The Guardian	1,004	25%	41%	19%	14%	16%
19–20 Aug	ComRes/The Independent on Sunday	1,013	24%	41%	18%	16%	17%
13–14 Aug	YouGov/Sunday Times	2,007	28%	42%	18%	13%	14%
12–13 Aug	ICM/Sunday Mirror	1,005	26%	43%	19%	12%	17%
28–30 July	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,334	27%	41%	18%	15%	14%
24–26 July	ComRes/The Independent	1,008	24%	42%	18%	16%	18%
23 July	Norwich North by-election: Labour lose seat vacated by Ian Gibson following the MPs' expenses scandal to the Conservatives on a 16.5% swing.
21–23 July	YouGov/The People	2,218	25%	40%	20%	16%	15%
17–19 July	Ipsos MORI	1,012	24%	40%	18%	18%	16%
17–19 July	Populus/The Times	1,504	26%	38%	20%	16%	12%
16–17 July	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,956	25%	42%	18%	15%	17%
15–16 July	ComRes/The Independent on Sunday	1,010	23%	38%	22%	16%	15%
10–11 July	ICM/The Guardian	1,000	27%	41%	20%	12%	14%
1–3 July	YouGov/Fabian Society	2,001	26%	39%	19%	17%	13%
26–28 June	ComRes/The Independent	1,007	25%	36%	19%	20%	11%
24–26 June	YouGov/The People	2,017	24%	40%	17%	19%	16%
23–25 June	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,233	25%	38%	18%	19%	13%
19–21 June	Ipsos MORI	1,004	21%	38%	19%	23%	17%
17–18 June	ComRes/The Independent on Sunday	1,012	22%	39%	18%	21%	17%
10–17 June	Harris Interative/Metro	2,081	20%	35%	16%	29%	15%
12–14 June	Ipsos MORI/UNISON	1,252	25%	39%	19%	17%	14%
12–14 June	ICM/The Guardian	1,006	27%	39%	18%	15%	12%
11–12 June	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,902	24%	40%	18%	19%	16%
9–10 June	Populus/The Times	1,001	24%	36%	19%	21%	12%
8 June	European Parliament election: Labour fall into third place in the popular vote behind Conservatives and UKIP. National vote shares: Conservatives 27% (25 seats, +1), UKIP 16% (13 seats, +1), Labour 15% (13 seats, −5), Liberal Democrats 14% (11 seats, +1), Others 28%.
5–7 June	ComRes/The Independent	1,001	22%	38%	20%	20%	16%
5 June	Local elections: Labour lose control of all their county councils. National vote shares: Conservatives 38%, Liberal Democrats 28%, Labour 23%. In the aftermath of these results, Gordon Brown reshuffles his cabinet.
3 June	Communities and Local Government Secretary Hazel Blears resigns from cabinet in order to help Labour "reconnect" with the people, leading to speculation about the future of PM Gordon Brown.
2–3 June	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	4,014	21%	37%	19%	23%	16%
2 June	It is revealed that Home Secretary Jacqui Smith and 2 junior ministers are to stand down from government at the forthcoming cabinet reshuffle.
29–31 May	ComRes/The Independent	1,005	22%	30%	18%	30%	8%
29–31 May	Ipsos MORI	1,001	18%	40%	18%	24%	22%
27–29 May	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	5,016	22%	39%	18%	21%	17%
27–28 May	ICM/Sunday Telegraph	1,013	22%	40%	25%	13%	15% over LD
27–28 May	Populus/The Times	1,001	21%	41%	15%	23%	20%
19–20 May	Populus/ITV News	1,000	27%	39%	17%	18%	12%
15–17 May	ICM/The Guardian	1,002	28%	39%	20%	14%	11%
17 May^P	BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11]	Unknown[11]	20%	42%	15%	23%	22%
14–16 May	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,235	23%	39%	19%	19%	16%
13–14 May	ComRes/The Independent on Sunday	1,010	21%	40%	18%	21%	19%
13–14 May	YouGov/The Sun	1,814	22%	41%	19%	18%	19%
8–10 May	Populus/The Times	1,504	26%	39%	22%	13%	13%
8–9 May	BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11]	Unknown[11]	23%	45%	17%	15%	22%
8 May	The Daily Telegraph begins publishing full details of MPs' expenses
7–8 May	YouGov/Sunday Times	2,209	27%	43%	18%	12%	16%
1–4 May	ICM/Taxpayers' Alliance	1,002	27%	41%	21%	11%	14%
24–26 April	ComRes/The Independent	1,003	26%	45%	17%	12%	19%
23–24 April	YouGov/Sunday People	1,855	27%	45%	17%	12%	18%
22–23 April	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	1,896	27%	45%	18%	10%	18%
22 April	The government unveils its budget, including the introduction of a 50% tax rate and a large increase in public borrowing
17–19 April	Ipsos MORI	1,011	28%	41%	22%	9%	13%
17–19 April	ICM/The Guardian	1,005	30%	40%	19%	11%	10%
16–18 April	BPIX/The Mail on Sunday[11]	1,889	26%	45%	17%	12%	19%
15–16 April	Marketing Sciences/Sunday Telegraph	1,007	26%	43%	21%	10%	17%
12 April	Gordon Brown's aide Damian McBride resigns after it is revealed he wrote a series of emails proposing that false allegations be made about the private lives of several Tory MPs.
3–5 April	Populus/The Times	1,512	30%	43%	18%	9%	13%
3–4 April	YouGov/Sunday Times	2,125	34%	41%	16%	10%	7%
2 April	G-20 Leaders' Summit held in London and hosted by Gordon Brown US$1.1 trillion package announced to stimulate global economic growth
27–29 March	ComRes/The Independent	1,002	28%	40%	18%	14%	12%
25–26 March	ICM/Sunday Telegraph	1,003	31%	44%	18%	8%	13%
24–26 March	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,104	31%	41%	17%	11%	10%
18–19 March	ComRes/The Independent on Sunday	1,002	30%	41%	17%	12%	11%
13–15 March	ICM/The Guardian	1,004	30%	42%	20%	8%	12%
13–15 March	Ipsos MORI	1,007	32%	42%	14%	11%	10%
12–13 March	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,840	31%	41%	17%	11%	10%
6–8 March	Populus/The Times	1,504	30%	42%	19%	9%	12%
27 Feb-1 Mar	ComRes/The Independent	1,006	28%	44%	17%	12%	16%
25 Feb	David Cameron's disabled elder son, Ivan, dies aged 6
24–26 Feb	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,063	31%	41%	15%	12%	10%
20–22 Feb	ICM/The Guardian	1,004	30%	42%	18%	10%	12%
13–15 Feb	Ipsos MORI	1,001	28%	48%	17%	7%	20%
12–13 Feb	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,711	32%	44%	14%	10%	12%
11–12 Feb	ComRes/The Independent on Sunday	1,002	25%	41%	22%	12%	16%
6–8 Feb	Populus/The Times	1,504	28%	42%	18%	12%	14%
4–5 Feb	ICM/Sunday Telegraph	1,010	28%	40%	22%	10%	12%
27–29 Jan	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,338	32%	43%	16%	10%	11%
28 Jan	Hundreds of workers commence wildcat strikes at the Lindsey Oil Refinery in protest of contracts awarded to foreign companies at a time of high local levels of unemployment
23–25 Jan	ICM/The Guardian	1,003	32%	44%	16%	8%	12%
23 Jan	The United Kingdom officially enters recession for the first time in 18 years
21–22 Jan	ComRes/The Independent	1,012	28%	43%	16%	13%	15%
16–18 Jan	Ipsos MORI	1,005	30%	44%	17%	9%	14%
15–16 Jan	YouGov/Sunday Times	2,077	32%	45%	14%	9%	13%
15 Jan	The Government announces that the controversial third runway at Heathrow airport will be built
14–15 Jan	ComRes/The Independent on Sunday	1,009	32%	41%	15%	12%	9%
9–11 Jan	Populus/The Times	1,500	33%	43%	15%	9%	10%
7–8 Jan	YouGov/The Sun	1,835	34%	41%	15%	10%	7%

2008

Date(s) Conducted	Polling Organisation/Client	Sample Size	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrats	Other	Lead
19–21 Dec	ComRes/The Independent	1,000	34%	39%	16%	11%	5%
16–18 Dec	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,241	35%	42%	14%	9%	7%
12–14 Dec	Ipsos MORI	1,000	35%	39%	15%	11%	4%
12–14 Dec	ICM/The Guardian	1,003	33%	38%	19%	10%	5%
11–12 Dec	YouGov/Sunday Times	2,098	35%	41%	15%	10%	6%
10–11 Dec	ComRes/The Independent on Sunday	1,003	36%	37%	14%	12%	1%
10–11 Dec	Ipsos MORI	1,007	36%	41%	11%	12%	5%
5–7 Dec	Populus/The Times	1,505	35%	39%	17%	9%	4%
28–30 Nov	ComRes/The Independent	1,005	36%	37%	17%	10%	1%
27–28 Nov	Ipsos MORI/The Observer	1,017	32%	43%	15%	10%	11%
25–26 Nov	ICM/The Guardian	1,027	30%	45%	18%	7%	15%
27 Nov	Conservative MP Damian Green is arrested over alleged leaks of Home Office information, prompting a widespread row over the circumstances surrounding his arrest
24–25 Nov	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	1,556	36%	40%	14%	10%	4%
24 Nov	2008 Pre-Budget Report released, including a temporary cut in VAT to 15%, and the introduction of a new 45% income tax band from 2011
19–20 Nov	ICM/Sunday Mirror	1,010	31%	42%	19%	8%	11%
14–16 Nov	Ipsos MORI	1,002	37%	40%	12%	11%	3%
13–14 Nov	YouGov/Sunday Times	2,080	36%	41%	14%	10%	5%
12–13 Nov	ComRes/The Independent on Sunday	1,010	32%	43%	12%	13%	11%
7–9 Nov	Populus/The Times	1,503	35%	41%	16%	8%	6%
5–6 Nov	ICM/Sunday Telegraph	1,005	30%	43%	18%	9%	13%
6 Nov	Glenrothes by-election: Labour unexpectedly hold seat with a 6,737 majority. Bank of England cuts interest rates by 1.5% to 3%.
2 Nov^P	BPIX[11]	?	31%	45%	13%	11%	14%
27–29 Oct	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,271	33%	42%	15%	10%	9%
24–26 Oct	ComRes/The Independent	1,001	31%	39%	16%	14%	8%
17–19 Oct	Ipsos MORI	1,004	30%	45%	14%	11%	15%
17–19 Oct	ICM/The Guardian	1,007	30%	42%	21%	7%	12%
16–18 Oct	BPIX[11]	2,046	30%	46%	13%	11%	16%
15–17 Oct	YouGov/Daily Mirror	2,029	34%	42%	14%	10%	8%
15–16 Oct	ComRes/The Independent on Sunday	1,005	31%	40%	16%	14%	9%
9–10 Oct	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,941	33%	43%	14%	10%	10%
8 Oct	Government announce £500bn bank rescue plan amid the ongoing global financial crisis
3–5 Oct	Populus/The Times	1,503	30%	45%	15%	10%	15%
1–3 Oct	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,048	31%	45%	15%	9%	14%
1 Oct	David Cameron makes his speech to the Conservative conference
26–28 Sep	ComRes/The Independent	1,017	29%	41%	18%	12%	12%
24–26 Sep	BPIX[11]	2,020	31%	43%	17%	9%	12%
24–25 Sep	ICM/The Guardian	1,012	32%	41%	18%	9%	9%
23–24 Sep	YouGov/The Sun	1,536	31%	41%	16%	12%	10%
23 Sep	Gordon Brown delivers his keynote speech to Labour Conference
17–18 Sep	ComRes/The Independent on Sunday	1,010	27%	39%	21%	12%	12%
17–19 Sep	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,227	24%	44%	20%	12%	20%
17 Sep	Nick Clegg delivers his speech to Liberal Democrat conference
12–14 Sep	Ipsos MORI	1,017	24%	52%	12%	12%	28%
10–12 Sep	YouGov/Sunday Times	2,161	27%	46%	16%	11%	19%
3–4 Sep	ComRes/The Independent	1,013	25%	44%	17%	14%	19%
29–31 Aug	Populus/The Times	1,506	27%	43%	18%	12%	16%
26–27 Aug	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,267	26%	45%	16%	13%	19%
20–21 Aug	ComRes/The Independent on Sunday	1,014	25%	46%	16%	13%	21%
15–17 Aug	ICM/The Guardian	1,002	29%	44%	19%	8%	15%
15–17 Aug	Ipsos MORI	1,005	24%	48%	16%	12%	24%
14–15 Aug	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,745	25%	45%	18%	12%	20%
6–8 Aug	YouGov/News of the World	2,031	26%	46%	17%	11%	20%
31 Jul – 2 Aug	BPIX[11]	1,333	24%	47%	16%	13%	23%
30 Jul – 1 Aug	ICM/Sunday Express	1,001	29%	45%	16%	10%	16%
29–31 July	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	1,949	25%	47%	16%	12%	22%
25–27 July	Populus/The Times	1,002	27%	43%	18%	12%	16%
23–25 July	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,120	26%	45%	17%	12%	19%
23–24 July	ComRes/The Independent	1,021	24%	46%	18%	12%	22%
24 July	Glasgow East by-election: Labour lose their 3rd safest Scottish seat to the SNP on a 22.5% swing
18–20 July	Ipsos MORI	1,016	27%	47%	15%	11%	20%
18–20 July	ICM/The Guardian	1,007	28%	43%	19%	10%	15%
16–17 July	ComRes/The Independent on Sunday	1,016	24%	45%	16%	15%	21%
10–11 July	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,832	25%	47%	16%	12%	22%
4–6 July	Populus/The Times	1,507	28%	41%	19%	12%	13%
25–26 June	ComRes/The Independent	1,007	25%	46%	18%	11%	21%
23–25 June	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,163	28%	46%	15%	11%	18%
26 June	Henley by-election: Conservatives hold Boris Johnson's former seat, whilst Labour fall to fifth place behind Green Party and BNP
20–22 June	ICM/The Guardian	1,000	25%	45%	20%	10%	20%
18–20 June	BPIX[11]	2,385	26%	49%	14%	11%	23%
13–15 June	Ipsos MORI	1,012	28%	45%	16%	11%	17%
11–12 June	ComRes/The Independent on Sunday	1,012	26%	44%	17%	13%	18%
12–13 June	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,769	25%	47%	18%	10%	22%
6–8 June	Populus/The Times	1,508	25%	45%	20%	10%	20%
4–5 June	ICM/The Sunday Telegraph	1,023	26%	42%	21%	11%	16%
30 May-1 June	ComRes/The Independent	1,006	30%	44%	16%	10%	14%
27–29 May	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,241	23%	47%	18%	12%	24%
22 May	Crewe and Nantwich by-election: Conservatives gain seat from Labour with a 17% swing
16–18 May	ICM/The Guardian	1,008	27%	41%	22%	10%	14%
15–16 May	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,854	25%	45%	18%	12%	20%
14–15 May	ComRes/The Independent on Sunday	1,004	26%	43%	19%	12%	17%
7–8 May	YouGov/The Sun	1,571	23%	49%	17%	11%	26%
2–4 May	Populus/The Times	1,509	29%	40%	19%	11%	11%
1 May	Local elections held across England & Wales in which Labour falls to 3rd place in the popular vote Labour loses London Mayoralty to the Conservatives
25–27 Apr	ComRes/The Independent	1,005	26%	40%	20%	14%	14%
23–24 Apr	ICM/The Sunday Telegraph	1,010	29%	39%	20%	12%	10%
21–23 Apr	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,073	26%	44%	17%	13%	18%
17–22 Apr	Ipsos-MORI/The Observer	1,059	31%	40%	19%	10%	9%
18–20 Apr	ICM/The Gurdian	1,000	34%	39%	19%	8%	5%
16–17 Apr	Populus/Sunday Mirror	1,006	30%	40%	19%	11%	10%
10–11 Apr	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,755	28%	44%	17%	11%	16%
8–10 Apr	Populus/The Times	1,502	33%	39%	17%	6%	6%
2–3 Apr	ICM/The Sunday Telegraph	1,010	32%	43%	18%	7%	11%
28–30 Mar	ComRes/The Independent	1,004	31%	38%	17%	14%	7%
25–27 Mar	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	1,926	29%	43%	17%	11%	14%
13–18 Mar	Ipsos MORI	1,983	35%	40%	18%	7%	5%
14–16 Mar	ICM/The Guardian	1,003	29%	42%	21%	8%	13%
13–14 Mar	YouGov/Sunday Times	2,311	27%	43%	16%	13%	16%
12–13 Mar	ICM/News of the World	1,002	31%	40%	20%	9%	9%
12 Mar	Alistair Darling delivers his first budget as Chancellor
7–9 Mar	Populus/The Times	1,502	34%	37%	19%	10%	3%
25–27 Feb	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,011	33%	40%	16%	11%	7%
21–26 Feb	Ipsos MORI	2,063	37%	39%	16%	8%	2%
22–24 Feb	ComRes/The Independent	1,010	30%	41%	17%	12%	11%
18–20 Feb	YouGov/The Economist	2,118	34%	40%	16%	11%	6%
15–17 Feb	ICM/The Guardian	1,003	34%	37%	21%	8%	3%
17 Feb	The Government nationalises troubled bank Northern Rock
14–15 Feb	YouGov/Sunday Times	2,469	32%	41%	16%	11%	9%
1–3 Feb	Populus/The Times	1,504	31%	40%	17%	12%	9%
30–31 Jan	ICM/The Sunday Telegraph	1,012	32%	37%	21%	10%	5%
25–27 Jan	ComRes/The Independent	1,003	30%	38%	17%	15%	8%
24 Jan	Peter Hain resigns as Work and Pensions and Wales Secretary
21–23 Jan	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	1,992	33%	41%	16%	10%	8%
17–22 Jan	Ipsos MORI	2,045	38%	37%	16%	9%	1%
18–20 Jan	ICM/The Guardian	1,009	35%	37%	20%	8%	2%
10–11 Jan	YouGov/Sunday Times	2,139	33%	43%	14%	11%	10%
9–10 Jan	ICM/The Sunday Telegraph	1,011	33%	40%	18%	9%	7%
9–10 Jan	Ipsos MORI/The Sun	1,006	32%	42%	15%	11%	10%
4–6 Jan	Populus/The Times	1,509	33%	37%	19%	11%	4%

2007

Date(s) Conducted	Polling Organisation/Client	Sample Size	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrats	Other	Lead
18–19 Dec	ICM/The Guardian	1,034	34%	39%	18%	9%	5%
17–19 Dec	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,060	31%	43%	16%	11%	12%
18 Dec	Nick Clegg wins Liberal Democrat leadership election
14–16 Dec	ComRes/The Independent	1,004	30%	41%	16%	12%	11%
13–14 Dec	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,481	32%	45%	14%	10%	13%
7–9 Dec	Populus/The Times	1,506	32%	40%	16%	11%	8%
29 Nov-7 Dec	Ipsos MORI	1,859	35%	42%	14%	9%	7%
28–29 Nov	ICM/News of the World	1,011	30%	41%	19%	10%	11%
26–29 Nov	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	4,004	32%	43%	14%	11%	11%
23–27 Nov	Ipsos MORI	1,933	32%	41%	17%	10%	9%
23–25 Nov	ComRes/The Independent	1,009	27%	41%	18%	15%	13%
21–22 Nov	ICM/The Guardian	1,005	31%	37%	21%	10%	6%
21–22 Nov	YouGov/Channel 4 News	1,600	32%	41%	14%	13%	9%
20 Nov	Child Benefit Data Scandal: Revenue & Customs confirm they have lost two discs containing bank details of 7.25m child benefit claimants
14–16 Nov	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,983	35%	41%	13%	11%	6%
8–10 Nov	ICM/Sunday Express	1,001	35%	43%	15%	7%	8%
2–4 Nov	Populus/The Times	1,503	37%	36%	16%	11%	1%
31 Oct-1 Nov	Ipsos MORI/The Sun	1,013	35%	40%	13%	12%	5%
26–28 Oct	ICM/The Guardian	1,011	35%	40%	18%	7%	5%
26–28 Oct	ComRes/The Independent	1,002	33%	42%	15%	10%	8%
22–24 Oct	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,105	38%	41%	11%	10%	3%
18–23 Oct	Ipsos MORI/The Observer	1,987	41%	40%	13%	6%	1%
15 Oct	Sir Menzies Campbell resigns as Liberal Democrat leader
10–11 Oct	ICM/Sunday Telegraph	1,010	36%	43%	14%	8%	7%
10 Oct	Ipsos MORI/The Sun	1,007	38%	41%	11%	10%	3%
5–6 Oct	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,757	38%	41%	11%	10%	3%
5–7 Oct	Populus/The Times	1,008	40%	38%	12%	10%	2%
6 Oct	After weeks of speculation, Gordon Brown announces he will not be calling a general election "in the next period"
3–4 Oct	YouGov/Channel 4 News	1,741	40%	36%	13%	11%	4%
3–4 Oct	ICM/The Guardian	1,008	38%	38%	16%	8%	0%
2–3 Oct	Populus/The Times	1,000	39%	36%	15%	10%	3%
3 Oct	David Cameron delivers his speech to Conservative conference
26–28 Sep	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,165	43%	32%	15%	10%	11%
27–28 Sep	Ipsos MORI/The Observer	1,000	41%	34%	16%	9%	7%
26–27 Sep	Populus/The Times	1,002	41%	31%	17%	10%	10%
20–26 Sep	Ipsos MORI	1,964	44%	31%	15%	10%	13%
24–25 Sep	YouGov/Channel 4 News	1,341	44%	33%	13%	11%	11%
24 Sep	Gordon Brown delivers first conference speech as Labour leader
20–22 Sep	Ipsos MORI/The Sun	1,009	42%	34%	14%	10%	8%
19–21 Sep	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,085	39%	33%	16%	12%	6%
19–20 Sep	ICM/Sunday Mirror	1,029	39%	33%	19%	9%	6%
13–16 Sep	ICM/The Guardian	1,005	40%	32%	20%	8%	8%
13–14 Sep	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,942	39%	34%	15%	12%	5%
11–12 Sep	ComRes/The Independent	1,005	37%	34%	15%	14%	3%
31 Aug-2 Sep	Populus/The Times	1,506	37%	36%	18%	9%	1%
29–31 Aug	YouGov/GMTV	2,154	38%	35%	15%	12%	3%
29–30 Aug	ComRes/The Independent	1,016	35%	36%	14%	14%	1%
23–29 Aug	Ipsos MORI/The Sun	1,941	41%	36%	16%	7%	5%
25–28 Aug	Populus/Conservative Party	530	37%	36%	16%	10%	1%
24–28 Aug	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,266	41%	33%	14%	12%	8%
22–23 Aug	ICM/The Guardian	1,016	39%	34%	18%	9%	5%
9–10 Aug	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,966	42%	32%	14%	12%	10%
8–10 Aug	ICM/Sunday Mirror	1,007	39%	33%	18%	10%	6%
8–9 Aug	Ipsos MORI/The Sun	531	38%	33%	15%	14%	5%
27–29 July	Populus/The Times	1,511	39%	33%	15%	13%	6%
27–29 July	Communicate/The Independent	1,006	37%	34%	16%	14%	3%
23–25 July	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	1,877	41%	32%	16%	11%	9%
20–22 July	ICM/The Guardian	1,005	38%	32%	20%	10%	6%
19–20 July	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,664	40%	33%	15%	12%	7%
12–17 July	Ipsos MORI/The Observer	1,919	41%	35%	15%	9%	6%
4–5 July	ICM/Sunday Mirror	1,006	37%	35%	17%	10%	2%
1 July	Populus/The Times	1,504	37%	34%	18%	11%	3%
30 June	Glasgow Airport Terrorist Attack
28–29 June	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	1,886	38%	35%	15%	12%	3%
29 June	Two cars bombs are discovered in central London
27–28 June	ICM/The Guardian	1,005	39%	35%	18%	8%	4%
27 June	Gordon Brown is appointed Prime Minister
22–24 June	Communicate/The Independent	1,005	32%	37%	18%	13%	5%
14–20 June	Ipsos MORI/The Observer	1,970	39%	36%	15%	10%	3%
14–15 June	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,753	35%	37%	14%	14%	2%
1–3 June	Populus	1,503	33%	36%	17%	14%	3%
30–31 May	ICM/Sunday Telegraph	1,014	32%	37%	21%	10%	5%
25–28 May	Communicate/The Independent	1,003	31%	35%	19%	15%	4%
21–23 May	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,050	33%	39%	15%	13%	6%
18–20 May	ICM/The Guardian	1,003	32%	34%	21%	12%	2%
11–13 May	Populus/The Times	1,504	33%	37%	17%	13%	4%
10–11 May	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,962	34%	38%	15%	14%	4%
10 May	Tony Blair announces his resignation as Labour Party leader and Prime Minister
3 May	Election 2007: Labour lose Scottish Parliament election to the SNP
23–25 Apr	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,019	32%	37%	18%	14%	5%
19–25 Apr	Ipsos MORI/The Observer	1,163	31%	38%	20%	11%	7%
20–22 Apr	ICM/The Guardian	1,005	30%	37%	21%	12%	7%
13–15 Apr	Populus/The Times	1,503	29%	37%	20%	14%	8%
4–5 Apr	YouGov/Sunday Times	2,218	31%	39%	16%	14%	8%
26–28 Mar	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,042	32%	39%	17%	13%	7%
23–25 Mar	Communicate	1,002	31%	35%	20%	14%	4%
21–22 Mar	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,752	31%	39%	16%	14%	8%
16–18 Mar	ICM/The Guardian	1,011	31%	41%	18%	10%	10%
15–16 Mar	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,897	32%	38%	16%	14%	6%
9–15 Mar	Ipsos MORI	1,983	33%	41%	17%	9%	8%
2–4 Mar	Populus/The Times	1,509	30%	38%	18%	14%	8%
23–25 Feb	Communicate	1,001	29%	40%	17%	14%	11%
19–21 Feb	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,292	32%	37%	17%	14%	5%
16–18 Feb	ICM/The Guardian	1,000	31%	40%	19%	10%	9%
8–9 Feb	YouGov/Sunday Times	2,019	32%	37%	18%	14%	5%
2–4 Feb	Populus/The Times	1,509	33%	36%	19%	12%	3%
19–29 Jan	Ipsos MORI	949	35%	39%	19%	7%	4%
26–28 Jan	Communicate	1,008	29%	34%	21%	16%	5%
22–24 Jan	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,245	31%	38%	18%	13%	7%
19–21 Jan	ICM/The Guardian	1,004	31%	37%	23%	9%	6%
5–7 Jan	Populus/The Times	1,507	32%	39%	18%	11%	7%

2006

Date(s) Conducted	Polling Organisation/Client	Sample Size	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrats	Other	Lead
20–22 Dec	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,918	32%	37%	15%	15%	5%
18–20 Dec	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	1,874	33%	37%	17%	13%	4%
19–20 Dec	Communicate	1,009	37%	36%	14%	14%	1%
15–17 Dec	ICM/The Guardian	1,006	32%	40%	18%	10%	8%
9–12 Dec	Ipsos MORI	1,938	36%	37%	18%	9%	1%
8–10 Dec	Populus/The Times	1,513	33%	34%	19%	14%	1%
28–30 Nov	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	1,979	32%	37%	16%	15%	5%
29–30 Nov	ICM/News of the World	1,006	31%	39%	20%	10%	8%
24–26 Nov	Communicate	1,004	36%	34%	17%	12%	2%
17–19 Nov	ICM/The Guardian	1,000	32%	37%	22%	9%	5%
9–14 Nov	Ipsos MORI	1,115	33%	35%	20%	12%	2%
3–5 Nov	Populus/The Times	1,510	33%	36%	20%	11%	3%
24–26 Oct	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	1,722	32%	39%	16%	13%	7%
20–22 Oct	Communicate	977	32%	38%	14%	15%	6%
20–22 Oct	ICM/The Guardian	1,019	29%	39%	22%	9%	10%
12–16 Oct	Ipsos MORI/Financial Times	1,113	37%	35%	18%	10%	2%
6–8 Oct	Populus/The Times	1,515	35%	36%	18%	11%	1%
4–5 Oct	ICM/Sunday Telegraph	1,005	32%	38%	20%	10%	6%
28–30 Sep	ICM/Sunday Mirror	1,029	35%	36%	19%	11%	1%
27–29 Sep	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	1,849	36%	36%	16%	12%	0%
21–22 Sep	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,546	33%	37%	18%	12%	4%
19–22 Sep	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	1,733	31%	38%	18%	13%	7%
19–20 Sep	ICM/The Guardian	1,066	32%	36%	22%	10%	4%
13–14 Sep	ICM/Sunday Mirror	1,003	33%	37%	21%	8%	4%
13–14 Sep	YouGov/The Sun	1,519	31%	38%	18%	14%	7%
6–7 Sep	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	1,504	32%	40%	17%	11%	8%
31 Aug – 6 Sep	Ipsos MORI/Sunday Times	1,186	36%	35%	19%	10%	1%
1–3 Sep	Populus/The Times	1,504	32%	36%	20%	13%	4%
22–24 Aug	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	1,757	31%	38%	18%	13%	7%
18–20 Aug	ICM/The Guardian	1,007	31%	40%	22%	8%	9%
10 Aug	Government and Police reveal details of the transatlantic aircraft plot
24–26 July	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	1,633	33%	38%	18%	11%	5%
20–24 July	Ipsos MORI	1,897	32%	36%	24%	8%	4%
21–23 July	ICM/The Guardian	1,001	35%	39%	17%	9%	4%
7–9 July	Populus/The Times	1,512	34%	36%	19%	11%	2%
29 June	Blaenau Gwent by-election: Independents retain seat Bromley & Chiselhurst by-election: Conservatives hold safe seat but see their majority fall by 12,709
28–29 June	ICM/Sunday Telegraph	1,003	35%	36%	18%	11%	1%
26–28 June	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	1,962	33%	39%	18%	10%	6%
22–26 June	Ipsos MORI	1,931	33%	36%	21%	10%	3%
21–23 June	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,009	32%	39%	17%	12%	7%
16–18 June	ICM/The Guardian	1,005	32%	37%	21%	9%	5%
8–12 June	Ipsos MORI/The Observer	1,975	34%	41%	18%	7%	7%
2–4 June	Populus/The Times	1,505	34%	37%	18%	11%	3%
25–30 May	Ipsos MORI	1,984	31%	41%	18%	10%	10%
23–25 May	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,102	32%	38%	16%	14%	6%
19–21 May	ICM/The Guardian	1,001	34%	38%	20%	8%	4%
8–9 May	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	1,910	31%	37%	17%	15%	6%
5–7 May	Populus/The Times	1,516	30%	38%	20%	11%	8%
5 May	Amid poor local election results, Tony Blair reshuffles his cabinet
4 May	2006 Local Elections: Labour suffer significant losses across the country
27 Apr-2 May	Ipsos MORI/Financial Times	1,078	32%	36%	21%	11%	4%
27–28 Apr	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,930	32%	35%	18%	15%	3%
21–23 Apr	ICM/The Guardian	1,006	32%	34%	24%	10%	2%
20–22 Apr	Ipsos MORI/The Sun	1,006	30%	30%	25%	15%	0%
18–20 Apr	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,075	35%	33%	17%	15%	2%
31 Mar-2 Apr	Populus/The Times	1,503	36%	34%	21%	10%	2%
27–29 Mar	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	1,873	36%	36%	18%	10%	0%
16–21 Mar	Ipsos MORI	1,155	39%	34%	19%	8%	5%
16–18 Mar	ICM/Sunday Telegraph	1,003	37%	33%	21%	9%	4%
16–17 Mar	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,811	35%	38%	19%	8%	3%
10–12 Mar	ICM/The Guardian	1,006	37%	34%	21%	8%	3%
3–5 Mar	Populus/The Times	1,509	35%	35%	20%	9%	0%
2 Mar	Sir Menzies Campbell elected leader of the Liberal Democrats
21–22 Feb	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,019	36%	38%	18%	9%	2%
16–20 Feb	Ipsos MORI/The Sun	1,143	38%	35%	20%	7%	3%
17–19 Feb	ICM/The Guardian	1,002	34%	37%	21%	8%	3%
9–10 Feb	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,617	39%	37%	15%	10%	2%
9 Feb	Dunfermline & West Fife by-election: Labour lose Scottish seat to the Liberal Democrats
3–5 Feb	Populus/The Times	1,508	36%	37%	18%	9%	1%
24–26 Jan	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,096	40%	39%	13%	9%	1%
19–23 Jan	Ipsos MORI	1,163	38%	40%	17%	5%	2%
20–22 Jan	ICM/The Guardian	1,009	36%	37%	19%	7%	1%
12–17 Jan	Ipsos MORI/The Sun	541	39%	39%	15%	7%	0%
6–8 Jan	Populus/The Times	1,509	39%	36%	16%	9%	3%
7 Jan	Charles Kennedy resigns as Liberal Democrat leader after it is revealed he has a drink problem

2005

Date(s) Conducted	Polling Organisation/Client	Sample Size	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrats	Other	Lead
15–18 Dec	ICM/The Guardian	1,004	36%	37%	21%	7%	1%
13–15 Dec	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,071	36%	38%	18%	8%	2%
9–12 Dec	MORI/The Observer	1,000	31%	40%	20%	9%	9%
9–11 Dec	Populus/The Times	1,521	38%	35%	19%	8%	3%
6–8 Dec	YouGov/Sunday Times	2,089	36%	37%	18%	8%	1%
7–8 Dec	ICM/The Guardian	1,003	35%	37%	21%	7%	2%
6 Dec	David Cameron is elected leader of the Conservative Party
5–6 Dec	YouGov/Sky News	1,612	36%	36%	18%	10%	0%
22–24 Nov	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,616	37%	35%	20%	8%	2%
17–22 Nov	MORI	1,089	42%	32%	19%	7%	10%
18–20 Nov	ICM/The Guardian	1,013	38%	33%	19%	10%	5%
9 Nov	House of Commons rejects Government plans that would allow suspected terrorists to be held for 90 days without charge
4–6 Nov	Populus/The Times	1,512	40%	32%	19%	9%	8%
2–3 Nov	ICM/Sunday Telegraph	1,010	39%	33%	21%	7%	6%
25–27 Oct	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	1,947	40%	32%	19%	9%	8%
20–25 Oct	MORI	1,904	40%	34%	21%	5%	6%
19–20 Oct	ICM/The Guardian	1,007	36%	33%	22%	8%	3%
7–9 Oct	Populus/The Times	1,509	40%	30%	21%	9%	10%
5–6 Oct	ICM/News of the World	1,015	38%	32%	22%	8%	5%
27–29 Sep	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2,183	40%	32%	20%	9%	8%
22–26 Sep	MORI	1,132	39%	29%	25%	7%	10%
16–17 Sep	ICM/The Guardian	1,013	40%	31%	21%	8%	9%
8–9 Sep	YouGov/Sunday Times	1,856	37%	32%	21%	10%	5%
2–4 Sep	Populus/The Times	1,506	37%	35%	20%	8%	2%
19–24 Aug	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	–	40%	33%	20%	7%	7%
11–15 Aug	MORI	1,191	39%	31%	24%	6%	8%
12–14 Aug	ICM/The Guardian	1,006	38%	31%	22%	9%	7%
26–28 July	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	–	40%	31%	21%	8%	9%
22–24 July	Populus/The Times	1,506	40%	28%	22%	10%	12%
14–18 July	MORI/The Observer	1,227	41%	28%	25%	6%	13%
15–17 July	ICM/The Guardian	1,005	39%	31%	23%	7%	8%
7 July	July 7 Terrorist Attacks: 4 co-ordinated suicide bombers detonate explosives on morning rush hour tube and bus services in London
6 July	London wins right to host 2012 Summer Olympics
28–30 June	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	3,717	38%	33%	20%	9%	5%
16–20 June	MORI	1,227	42%	29%	21%	8%	13%
17–19 June	ICM/The Guardian	1,005	38%	31%	23%	8%	7%
24–26 May	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	–	38%	31%	23%	8%	7%
19–23 May	MORI/Financial Times	1,274	37%	30%	26%	7%	7%
5 May	2005 general election (GB figures)[12]	27,148,510	36.2%	33.2%	22.7%	7.9%	3%

See also

• Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election
• Opinion polling for the United Kingdom general election, 2005
• European Parliament election, 2009 (United Kingdom)
• List of political parties in the United Kingdom

Notes

1. Predicting Results UK Polling Report
2. Pollwatch: Election 2010 could be the death knell for first past the post The Guardian, 18 April 2010
3. The Lib Dems surge in Britain Washington Examiner
4. Election 2010: Lib Dem policies targeted by rivals BBC News, 19 April 2010
5. Anthony Wells (10 December 2005). "Tories take the Lead". UKPollingReport. Retrieved 15 March 2010.
6. YouGov show Tory lead cut to 7 points UK Polling Report, 29 January 2010
7. General election 2010: All change for new politics The Guardian, 20 April 2010
8. Election Exit Poll: Tories will be 19 short of majority BBC News, 6 May 2010
9. "Live coverage – General Election 2010". BBC News. 6 May 2010. Retrieved 6 May 2010.
10. "Parties surprised by exit poll". BBC News. 6 May 2010. Retrieved 7 May 2010.
11. It should be noted that BPIX is not a member of the British Polling Council, unlike the other main pollsters such as YouGov, ComRes, Populus, Ipsos MORI, and ICM. Therefore, the full details of its polls are not subject to public disclosure.
12. Opinion polling is conducted on a Great Britain basis, and election forecasting also uses GB figures. Northern Ireland, being outside the main party system, is treated separately.

^P – The dates when the fieldwork for this poll was carried out is unknown, therefore the date of publication has been given.

External links

• Ipsos Mori archive of all pollsters' polls
• British Polling Council
• Electoral Calculus
• UK Polling Report Election Guide
• ICM Polls
• Populus Political Polls
• YouGov Political Polls
• ComRes Polls
• Latest polling results and seat projections from Angus Reid Public Opinion