Opinion polling for the 2015 United Kingdom general election

Polling results for the 2015 UK General Election, compared to the actual result

In the run up to the general election on 7 May 2015, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

The date range for these opinion polls is from 6 May 2010 (the date of the previous general election) to 7 May 2015.

Most opinion polls cover only Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales). Separate polls covering constituent countries of the UK and English regions are reported further below while polling of individual constituencies and groups of them (such as groups of marginals) is covered in a separate article.

In the event, the actual results proved to be rather different from those indicated by the opinion polls. Opinion polls conducted in the last few months of the campaign, and even in the last few days, had indicated a very close result between the Conservatives and Labour in terms of numbers of votes, suggesting that one of the main parties would have to form a perhaps complex coalition with smaller parties in order to govern.

However the actual results showed a stronger performance by the Conservatives, which gave them an overall majority, since Labour also had a weaker performance than the polls had suggested.[1][2][3] When the exit poll was initially presented, some commentators and politicians doubted it, with Paddy Ashdown even declaring "If this poll is correct I will publicly eat my hat on your programme" in response to the apparently poor results for the Liberal Democrats.[4] The exit poll was eventually proved to have in fact overestimated the Liberal Democrats' performance. If the Survation telephone poll (6 May) had been published it would have produced results within 1% of the election results.

Graphical summary

15-day average trend line of poll results from 6 May 2010 to 7 May 2015, with each line corresponding to a political party.
  Labour Party
  Conservative Party
  Liberal Democrats
  UK Independence Party
  Green Party

The chart shows the relative state of the parties from 13 May 2010 to 7 May 2015, with each line's colour corresponding to a political party: red for the Labour Party, blue for the Conservative Party, purple for the UK Independence Party, yellow for the Liberal Democrats, and green for the combined Green Party of England and Wales and Scottish Green Party. While not shown here, other parties have on occasion polled higher than one or more of the parties represented, for example in the Lord Ashcroft poll conducted on 17–19 April 2015, where the Scottish National Party polled 6% and the Greens 4%.[5] Each dot represents a party's results from an opinion poll displayed in the table below.

Poll results

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order.[6] The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. The 'party lead' column shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. In the instance of a tie, no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold.

Throughout the 2010-2015 parliament, first and second places have without exception alternated between the Conservatives and Labour. The Liberal Democrats and the UK Independence Party have tended to hold either third or fourth place in each individual poll. The combined Green parties of England and Wales and Scotland have most frequently polled fifth and have on occasions polled fourth – level with or ahead of the UK Independence Party or the Liberal Democrats. Included in the 'others' column are other smaller parties, the largest of which (by votes at the 2010 general election) are the British National Party, the Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru. Detailed poll results that break down 'others' for some dates in 2014 and 2010 are available in a second table, below.

2015

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
7 MayGeneral Election results (GB only)[7][8]29,980,10737.8%31.2%8.1%12.9%3.8%6.3%6.6%
5–7 MayPopulus[9] 3,91734%34%9%13%5%6%Tied
6 MaySurvation[10]1,04537%31%10%11%5%6%6%
30 Apr–6 MaySurveyMonkey[11]18,13134%28%7%13%8%9%6%
5–6 MayLord Ashcroft 3,02833%33%10%11%6%8%Tied
5–6 MayIpsos MORI/Evening Standard1,18636%35%8%11%5%5%1%
4–6 MayYouGov/The Sun10,30734%34%10%12%4%6%Tied
5–6 MayComRes/Daily Mail, ITV News1,00735%34%9%12%4%6%1%
4–6 MaySurvation/Daily Mirror[n 1]4,08831%31%10%16%5%7%Tied
3–6 MayICM/The Guardian[n 2]2,02334%35%9%11%4%7%1%
3–6 MayICM/The Guardian[n 3]1,56035%35%9%11%3%7%Tied
1–6 MayPanelbase[12]3,01931%33%8%16%5%7%2%
4–5 MayOpinium2,96035%34%8%12%6%5%1%
4–5 MayYouGov/The Sun2,14834%34%9%12%5%6%Tied
4–5 MaySurvation/Daily Mirror1,50433%34%9%16%4%4%1%
3–5 MayComRes/Daily Mail, ITV News1,01135%32%9%14%4%6%3%
3–5 MayBMG/May2015.com, New Statesman1,00934%34%10%12%4%6%Tied
3–4 MayYouGov/The Sun1,66433%33%10%12%5%6%Tied
30 Apr–4 May TNS 1,18533%32%8%14%6%6%1%
2–3 May YouGov/The Sun 1,78934%33%9%12%5%7%1%
1–3 MayLord Ashcroft 1,00132%30%11%12%7%9%2%
1–3 May Populus 2,054 34%34% 10% 13% 5% 5%Tied
1–2 MayYouGov/Sunday Times1,96734%33%8%13%5%7%1%
1–2 MaySurvation/Mail on Sunday2,12831%34%8%17%4%6%3%
30 Apr–1 MayYouGov/The Sun1,57533%34%8%14%5%5%1%
30 Apr–1 MaySurvation/Daily Mirror1,11733%34%9%16%3%5%1%
30 AprQuestion Time featuring David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband broadcast on BBC One;
Ask Nicola Sturgeon, Ask Leanne Wood and Ask Nigel Farage programmes also shown
29–30 AprYouGov/Sun on Sunday1,97034%35%9%12%5%6%1%
29–30 AprPopulus2,01633%33%9%15%4%5%Tied
29–30 AprYouGov/The Sun1,72934%35%8%12%5%6%1%
29–30 AprPanelbase1,02032%34%8%17%4%7%2%
28–30 AprComRes/Independent on Sunday, Sunday Mirror1,00233%33%8%13%7%6%Tied
28–30 AprOpinium/The Observer1,95635%34%8%13%5%5%1%
28–29 AprYouGov/The Sun1,82335%34%9%12%4%6%1%
26–29 AprIpsos MORI/Evening Standard1,01035%30%8%10%8%9%5%
27–28 AprComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail1,00535%35%7%11%6%6%Tied
27–28 AprYouGov/The Sun1,74934%35%9%12%4%6%1%
26–27 AprYouGov/The Sun2,12735%34%9%12%5%6%1%
25–27 AprBMG/May2015.com[13] 1,01335%32%11%14%3%5%3%
23–27 AprTNS1,18634%33%7%15%5%5%1%
25–26 AprYouGov/The Sun2,09633%34%8%14%5%6%1%
24–26 AprLord Ashcroft1,00336%30%9%11%7%7%6%
24–26 AprICM/The Guardian1,00435%32%9%13%5%6%3%
24–26 AprPopulus2,07233%36%8%14%5%4%3%
24–25 AprYouGov/Sunday Times2,27132%34%9%14%6%5%2%
24–25 AprSurvation/Mail on Sunday1,00433%30%9%18%4%6%3%
23–24 AprYouGov/The Sun1,59433%35%8%13%6%5%2%
21–24 AprOpinium/The Observer1,96434%33%9%13%6%5%1%
22–23 AprPopulus2,05132%35%8%14%5%6%3%
22–23 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,83433%35%8%13%6%6%2%
22–23 AprSurvation/Daily Mirror1,20533%29%10%18%4%6%4%
21–23 AprPanelbase1,01231%34%7%17%4%7%3%
21–22 AprComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail1,00336%32%8%10%5%9%4%
21–22 AprYouGov/The Sun2,06033%34%7%14%5%6%1%
20–21 AprYouGov/The Sun1,79935%34%7%13%5%6%1%
19–20 AprYouGov/The Sun2,07834%35%7%13%5%6%1%
16–20 AprTNS1,19932%34%8%15%5%6%2%
18–19 AprYouGov/The Sun1,67534%35%8%13%5%6%1%
17–19 AprLord Ashcroft1,00234%30%10%13%4%9%4%
17–19 AprPopulus2,04832%34%9%15%4%6%2%
17–19 AprICM/The Guardian1,00334%32%10%11%5%8%2%
17–18 AprYouGov/Sunday Times1,78033%36%8%13%5%5%3%
16–17 AprOpinium/The Observer1,95536%32%8%13%5%6%4%
16–17 AprYouGov/The Sun1,71334%34%9%14%5%5%Tied
16–17 AprSurvation/Daily Mirror1,31434%33%7%17%3%6%1%
16 AprFive-way Opposition Leaders' Debate held on BBC One
15–16 AprPopulus2,04833%34%9%14%4%5%1%
15–16 AprYouGov/The Sun1,93934%34%7%14%5%6%Tied
14–16 AprPanelbase1,02533%34%8%16%4%5%1%
14–15 AprYouGov/The Sun1,89434%35%8%13%5%6%1%
12–15 AprIpsos MORI/Evening Standard1,00033%35%7%10%8%7%2%
13–14 AprYouGov/The Sun1,84233%35%8%13%5%6%2%
12–13 AprYouGov/The Sun2,44433%34%8%13%6%5%1%
9–13 AprTNS1,19234%32%9%14%5%6%2%
11–12 AprYouGov/The Sun1,71733%36%7%13%5%6%3%
10–12 AprLord Ashcroft1,00333%33%9%13%6%8%Tied
10–12 AprICM/The Guardian1,04239%33%8%7%7%5%6%
10–12 AprPopulus2,03633%33%8%15%5%6%Tied
10–11 AprYouGov/Sunday Times1,88734%34%7%13%6%6%Tied
9–10 AprYouGov/The Sun1,78233%35%8%13%5%5%2%
8–9 AprOpinium/The Observer1,91636%34%7%11%6%6%2%
8–9 AprPopulus2,02031%33%8%16%6%7%2%
8–9 AprYouGov/The Sun1,93835%34%8%12%4%6%1%
8–9 AprSurvation/Daily Mirror1,11131%35%9%15%4%6%4%
7–9 AprPanelbase1,01331%37%8%16%4%4%6%
7–8 AprComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail1,01334%33%12%12%4%6%1%
7–8 AprYouGov/The Sun1,87134%35%8%13%5%5%1%
6–7 AprYouGov/The Sun1,67233%35%8%14%5%5%2%
2–7 AprTNS1,20730%33%8%19%4%7%3%
2–6 AprPopulus2,00831%33%10%15%4%7%2%
3–4 AprYouGov/Sunday Times1,90634%33%10%13%4%6%1%
2–3 AprOpinium/The Observer1,97433%33%7%14%7%5%Tied
2–3 AprSurvation/Daily Mirror1,20731%33%9%18%3%6%2%
2 AprSeven-way Leaders' Debate on ITV
1–2 AprYouGov/The Sun1,58337%35%7%12%5%4%2%
31 Mar–2 AprPanelbase1,00633%33%7%17%5%5%Tied
31 Mar–1 AprPopulus2,05732%34%9%15%5%5%2%
31 Mar–1 AprYouGov/The Sun1,67836%34%8%13%4%5%2%
30–31 MarYouGov/The Sun1,56635%36%7%12%5%5%1%
30 Mar Dissolution of Parliament and the official start of the election campaign
29–30 MarYouGov/The Sun2,00135%35%8%12%5%5%Tied
26–30 MarTNS1,19733%32%8%16%5%7%1%
28–29 MarComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail1,00536%32%9%12%5%7%4%
27–29 MarLord Ashcroft1,00436%34%6%10%7%6%2%
27–29 MarPopulus2,00434%34%8%15%4%5%Tied
27–28 MarYouGov/Sunday Times1,79932%36%8%13%6%5%4%
26 MarFirst TV election interview by Jeremy Paxman with David Cameron and Ed Miliband on Sky and Channel 4
25–26 MarPopulus2,04931%33%9%16%5%6%2%
25–26 MarYouGov/The Sun1,69836%34%7%13%5%5%2%
24–26 MarPanelbase1,00734%34%5%15%6%6%Tied
24–25 MarOpinium/The Observer1,95934%33%8%13%7%3%1%
24–25 MarYouGov/The Sun1,61034%35%8%12%6%5%1%
24–25 MarSurvation/Daily Mirror1,00732%33%8%18%4%5%1%
23–24 MarYouGov/The Sun2,00635%35%8%12%6%4%Tied
22–23 MarYouGov/The Sun1,64134%34%8%12%6%5%Tied
18–23 MarYouGov/The Times8,27134%33%8%14%5%6%1%
20–22 MarComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail1,00135%35%8%10%7%6%Tied
20–22 MarLord Ashcroft1,00333%33%8%12%5%9%Tied
20–22 MarPopulus2,03531%33%9%16%5%5%2%
20–21 MarSurvation/Mail on Sunday1,00830%34%10%17%3%6%4%
19–20 MarYouGov/Sunday Times1,53233%35%8%14%5%5%2%
18–19 MarOpinium/The Observer1,97936%33%7%14%6%4%3%
18–19 MarPopulus2,02031%34%9%17%5%4%3%
18–19 MarYouGov/The Sun2,29335%33%8%13%6%5%2%
18 MarUnited Kingdom Budget, 2015 read to Parliament by The Chancellor of the Exchequer.
17–18 MarYouGov/The Sun1,75233%34%8%14%6%5%1%
16–17 MarYouGov/The Sun1,83034%36%7%12%6%5%2%
15–16 MarYouGov/The Sun1,68333%35%7%13%7%5%2%
13–16 MarTNS1,18833%32%7%17%4%7%1%
13–15 MarLord Ashcroft1,00231%29%8%15%8%9%2%
13–15 MarICM/The Guardian 1,001 36%35%8%9%4%8%1%
13–15 MarPopulus2,04134%34%8%15%5%5%Tied
12–13 MarYouGov/Sunday Times1,66934%34%7%14%5%6%Tied
11–13 MarComRes/Sunday Mirror, Independent on Sunday2,00233%35%7%16%4%5%2%
11–12 MarPopulus2,04129%32%8%18%6%7%3%
11–12 MarYouGov/The Sun 1,619 33%32%7%16%6%6%1%
10–12 MarOpinium/The Observer1,94733%35%7%14%7%5%2%
10–11 MarYouGov/The Sun 1,728 34%35%7%14%5%5%1%
8–11 MarIpsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,025 33%34%8%13%6%6%1%
9–10 MarYouGov/The Sun 1,59833%31%8%15%6%6%2%
8–9 MarYouGov/The Sun 1,74535%31%8%14%6%6%4%
6–8 MarLord Ashcroft1,00334%30%5%15%8%7%4%
6–8 MarPopulus 2,026 32%33%9%15%6%6%1%
5–6 MarYouGov/Sunday Times1,75434%33%8%15%5%5%1%
3–6 MarOpinium/The Observer1,96134%34%8%14%7%5%Tied
4–5 MarPopulus 2,063 31%33%8%16%5%5%2%
4–5 MarYouGov/The Sun 1,748 31%35%6%15%8%4%4%
3–4 MarYouGov/The Sun1,54434%34%8%14%6%4%Tied
2–3 MarYouGov/The Sun 1,70136%34%5%14%6%5%2%
1–2 MarYouGov/The Sun1,86635%32%7%15%6%5%3%
27 Feb–1 MarLord Ashcroft1,00334%31%7%14%7%8%3%
27 Feb–1 MarPopulus2,05632%34%8%14%5%7%2%
26–27 FebYouGov/Sunday Times1,95934%34%8%14%5%5%Tied
25–27 FebPopulus2,00531%33%9%16%6%5%2%
25–26 FebYouGov/The Sun1,63833%34%8%13%6%6%1%
24–26 FebOpinium/The Observer1,94834%35%6%14%6%6%1%
24–25 FebYouGov/The Sun1,58133%33%8%15%6%5%Tied
23–24 FebYouGov/The Sun1,52035%33%6%14%7%5%2%
23 FebSurvation/Daily Mirror1,04628%34%10%19%4%5%6%
22–23 FebYouGov/The Sun1,77233%33%8%13%7%5%Tied
20–23 FebComRes/Daily Mail1,00434%32%8%13%8%6%2%
20–22 FebLord Ashcroft1,00432%36%7%11%8%6%4%
20–22 FebPopulus2,05932%32%9%15%6%6%Tied
19–20 FebYouGov/Sunday Times1,56833%34%8%13%6%6%1%
17–20 FebOpinium/The Observer1,97535%33%6%15%7%5%2%
18–19 FebPopulus2,01131%32%9%17%6%5%1%
18–19 FebYouGov/The Sun1,56432%33%9%15%6%5%1%
17–18 FebYouGov/The Sun1,74332%34%8%14%6%5%2%
16–17 FebYouGov/The Sun1,54833%34%6%15%7%5%1%
15–16 FebYouGov/The Sun1,58032%32%6%16%8%5%Tied
12–16 FebTNS1,19328%35%6%18%7%6%7%
13–15 FebLord Ashcroft1,00430%31%9%16%8%6%1%
13–15 FebPopulus2,01231%33%10%15%5%5%2%
13–15 FebICM/The Guardian1,00036%32%10%9%7%7%4%
12–13 FebYouGov/Sunday Times1,62032%35%7%15%7%5%3%
11–12 FebComRes/Sunday Mirror, Independent on Sunday2,01732%34%7%16%4%7%2%
11–12 FebPopulus2,05531%34%9%14%6%6%3%
11–12 FebYouGov/The Sun 1,59231%34%7%15%7%6%3%
10–12 FebOpinium/The Observer1,96933%35%8%14%6%6%2%
10–11 FebYouGov/The Sun 1,76432%33%7%15%7%6%1%
9–10 FebYouGov/The Sun 1,67733%35%6%13%8%5%2%
8–10 FebIpsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,01034%36%6%9%7%8%2%
8–9 FebYouGov/The Sun1,55234%33%7%14%7%6%1%
6–8 FebLord Ashcroft1,00334%31%9%14%6%6%3%
6–8 FebPopulus2,00333%34%8%15%4%4%1%
5–6 FebYouGov/Sunday Times1,66832%33%7%15%8%5%1%
3–6 FebOpinium/The Observer1,94732%34%7%15%8%4%2%
4–5 FebPopulus2,05631%34%8%16%5%6%3%
4–5 FebYouGov/The Sun1,71932%33%9%15%5%5%1%
3–4 FebYouGov/The Sun 1,74934%33%6%13%7%7%1%
2–3 FebYouGov/The Sun1,70533%33%7%14%7%5%Tied
1–2 FebYouGov/The Sun1,63033%35%7%14%6%5%2%
30 Jan–2 FebPopulus2,04031%34%8%14%5%6%3%
29 Jan–2 FebTNS1,18227%33%6%18%8%8%6%
30 Jan–1 FebLord Ashcroft1,00231%31%8%15%9%6%Tied
29–30 JanYouGov/Sunday Times1,55032%35%7%15%6%5%3%
27–30 JanOpinium/The Observer1,97532%33%5%18%6%6%1%
28–29 JanPopulus2,02034%35%10%14%4%3%1%
28–29 JanYouGov/The Sun1,59334%34%6%14%7%5%Tied
27–28 JanYouGov/The Sun1,54833%33%6%16%7%5%Tied
26–27 JanYouGov/The Sun 1,65534%33%7%14%7%5%1%
25–26 JanYouGov/The Sun1,65634%33%6%15%7%5%1%
23–26 JanTNS-BMRB/BBC Radio 4 Woman's Hour97528%39%4%14%8%7%11%
25 JanSurvation/Daily Mirror1,01431%30%7%23%3%6% 1%
23–25 JanComRes/The Independent 1,00131%30%8%17%7%7% 1%
23–25 JanPopulus2,03934%35%9%13%6%3% 1%
22–25 JanLord Ashcroft1,00132%32%6%15%9%6%Tied
22–23 JanYouGov/Sunday Times1,57832%32%7%15%7%6%Tied
21–22 JanPopulus2,04932%36%9%13%6%4% 4%
21–22 JanYouGov/The Sun1,64031%33%7%17%8%4% 2%
20–21 JanYouGov/The Sun1,64533%34%6%14%8%5% 1%
19–20 JanYouGov/The Sun1,57032%30%8%15%10%5% 2%
18–19 JanYouGov/The Sun1,74732%32%8%15%7%6%Tied
16–19 JanICM/The Guardian1,00230%33%11%11%9%7%3%
15–19 JanTNS1,18831%31%8%16%7%7%Tied
16–18 JanLord Ashcroft1,00429%28%9%15%11%8%1%
16–18 JanPopulus2,03635%36%8%13%4%4%1%
15–16 JanYouGov/Sunday Times1,64731%32%7%18%7%4%1%
14–15 JanYouGov/Sun on Sunday1,76331%33%7%16%7%6%2%
14–15 JanComRes/Sunday Mirror, Independent on Sunday2,02333%34%7%18%3%5%1%
14–15 JanPopulus2,07032%35%9%14%6%4% 3%
14–15 JanYouGov/The Sun1,66032%32%6%16%8%6%Tied
13–15 JanOpinium/The Observer1,96628%33%7%20%6%6%5%
13–14 JanYouGov/The Sun 1,83432%34%6%15%7%6% 2%
12–13 JanYouGov/The Sun 1,78232%33%7%14%7%6%1%
11–13 JanIpsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,01033%34%8%11%8%6% 1%
11–12 JanYouGov/The Sun 1,64932%33%6%17%6%6%1%
9–11 JanLord Ashcroft1,00234%28%8%16%8%6%6%
9–11 JanPopulus 2,05632%37%10%13%4%4%5%
8–9 JanYouGov/Sunday Times1,68432%32%7%18%6%5%Tied
7–8 JanPopulus 2,04633%34%8%14%6%5%1%
7–8 JanYouGov/The Sun1,75333%33%8%13%7%6%Tied
6–8 JanTNS 1,20128%35%6%18%5%8%7%
6–7 JanYouGov/The Sun 1,70732%33%7%15%7%6%1%
5–6 JanYouGov/The Sun 1,76933%33%7%13%8%5%Tied
4–5 JanYouGov/The Sun1,72831%34%7%14%8%6%3%
2–4 JanPopulus2,04634%36%9%12%5%5%2%
30 Dec–2 JanOpinium/The Observer1,97032%33%8%17%4%7%1%

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

Note: some polls in 2010 did not give an individual figure for the UK Independence Party or the Greens. In these cases, the percentage intending to vote Green and/or UKIP is included with the 'others'.

Sub-national polling

Polling is conducted in the separate constituent countries of the United Kingdom. Of the 650 seats in the House of Commons, England has 533, Scotland has 59, Wales has 40 and Northern Ireland has 18.

England

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
7 May 2015General Election results25,571,20941.0%31.6%8.2%14.1%4.2%0.9%9.4%
6 May 2015Survation[10]91940%32%11%11%5%2%8%
5–6 May 2015ComRes/Daily Mail, ITV News86638%36%9%12%4%1%2%
5–6 May 2015Lord Ashcroft[23] 2,59335%33%10%13%7%2%2%
4–6 May 2015Survation/Daily Mirror3,56634%32%10%17%5%2%2%
3–6 May 2015ICM/The Guardian[24][n 6]1,72737%37%8%13%4%1%Tied
3–6 May 2015ICM/The Guardian[24][n 7]1,33038%37%8%12%3%1%1%
4–5 May 2015Opinium2,49337%35%8%12%7%1%2%
4–5 May 2015Survation/Daily Mirror1,27635%34%9%17%4%1%1%
3–5 May 2015ComRes/Daily Mail, ITV News88038%34%8%15%4%1%4%
3–5 May 2015BMG/May2015.com, New Statesman88737%34%10%14%4%1%3%
1–3 May 2015Lord Ashcroft[23] 85835%32%10%13%7%4%3%
1–2 May 2015Survation/Mail on Sunday1,85234%35%8%19%4%1%1%
30 Apr–1 May 2015Survation/Daily Mirror97836%34%10%17%4%<0.5%2%
30 Apr 2015Question Time featuring David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Milliband broadcast on BBC One; Ask Nicola Sturgeon, Ask Leanne Wood and Ask Nigel Farage programmes also shown
28–30 Apr 2015ComRes/Independent on Sunday, Sunday Mirror86835%34%8%14%8%2%1%
28–30 Apr 2015Opinium/The Observer1,65837%34%7%14%6%<0.5%3%
27–28 Apr 2015ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail87236%36%8%12%6%2%Tied
25–27 Apr 2015BMG/May2015.com87739%31%11%15%4%<0.5%8%
24–26 Apr 2015Lord Ashcroft[23]87037%32%9%12%8%1%5%
24–26 Apr 2015ICM/The Guardian[24]86339%32%7%15%6%<0.5%7%
24–25 Apr 2015Survation/Mail on Sunday87936%31%9%20%4%<0.5%5%
21–24 Apr 2015Opinium/The Observer1,66836%33%9%15%7%1%3%
22–23 Apr 2015Survation/Daily Mirror1,07236%29%10%20%5%<0.5%7%
21–22 Apr 2015ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail89039%34%8%11%5%3%5%
17–19 Apr 2015Lord Ashcroft[23]86336%33%9%14%5%2%3%
17–19 Apr 2015ICM/The Guardian[24]86338%35%9%12%5%1%3%
16–17 Apr 2015Opinium/The Observer1,65538%32%9%14%6%1%6%
16–17 Apr 2015Survation/Daily Mirror98635%34%8%18%3%1%1%
16 Apr 2015Five-way Opposition Leaders' Debate held on BBC One
12–15 Apr 2015Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard60035%37%8%11%8%1%2%
10–12 Apr 2015Lord Ashcroft[23]87034%36%9%14%6%1%2%
10–12 Apr 2015ICM/The Guardian[24]90041%35%7%8%8%1%6%
8–9 Apr 2015Opinium/The Observer1,62639%35%8%12%6%1%4%
8–9 Apr 2015Survation/Daily Mirror83833%36%9%16%5%1%3%
7–8 Apr 2015ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail71836%35%11%13%4%1%1%
2–3 Apr 2015Survation/Daily Mirror85634%33%9%21%3%<0.5%1%
2–3 Apr 2015Opinium/The Observer1,71035%34%7%15%7%1%1%
2 Apr 2015Seven-way Leaders' Debate on ITV
30 Mar 2015 Dissolution of Parliament and the official start of the election campaign
28–29 Mar 2015ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail86438%32%9%13%6%2%6%
27–29 Mar 2015Lord Ashcroft[23]86540%34%7%11%7%1%6%
26 Mar 2015First TV election interview by Jeremy Paxman with David Cameron and Ed Miliband on Sky and Channel 4
24–25 Mar 2015Opinium/The Observer1,69035%34%9%13%7%<0.5%1%
24–25 Mar 2015Survation/Daily Mirror85134%34%8%20%4%<0.5%Tied
20–22 Mar 2015ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail86438%35%8%11%7%1%3%
20–22 Mar 2015Lord Ashcroft[23]86036%33%8%14%6%2%3%
20–21 Mar 2015Survation/Mail on Sunday 861 31%35%10%19%3%1%4%
18–19 Mar 2015Opinium/The Observer1,70237%33%7%14%7%1%4%
13–15 Mar 2015Lord Ashcroft[23]86334%29%8%18%9%3%5%
13–15 Mar 2015ICM/The Guardian[24]910 38%37%6%11%5%3%1%
10–12 Mar 2015Opinium/The Observer1,65435%35%7%15%7%<0.5%Tied
8–11 Mar 2015Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 863 34%37%8%14%6%1%3%
6–8 Mar 2015Lord Ashcroft[23]85936%31%5%18%9%1%5%
3–6 Mar 2015Opinium/The Observer1,62636%33%7%15%7%3%3%
27 Feb–1 Mar 2015Lord Ashcroft[23]86036%32%8%14%7%2%4%
24–26 Feb 2015Opinium/The Observer1,67935%36%7%14%6%1%1%
23 Feb 2015Survation/Daily Mirror92130%34%10%21%3%2%4%
20–23 Feb 2015ComRes/Daily Mail86536%32%7%14%9%2%4%
20–22 Feb 2015Lord Ashcroft[23]86732%38%6%13%8%2%6%
17–20 Feb 2015Opinium/The Observer1,70436%33%7%16%7%1%3%
13–15 Feb 2015Lord Ashcroft[23] 863 31%31%9%18%9%3%Tied
13–15 Feb 2015ICM/The Guardian[24]86038%34%7%10%8%2%4%
10–12 Feb 2015Opinium/The Observer1,71335%35%8%15%5%1%Tied
8–10 Feb 2015Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard84438%37%7%10%8%0%1%
6–8 Feb 2015Lord Ashcroft[23]86036%31%9%16%7%1%5%
3–6 Feb 2015Opinium/The Observer1,94733%35%7%15%8%2%2%
30 Jan–1 Feb 2015Lord Ashcroft[23]85734%30%8%17%10%1%4%
25 Jan 2015Survation/Daily Mirror89034%30%7%25%4%<0.5% 4%
23–25 Jan 2015ComRes/The Independent85233%29%9%20%8%1%4%
22–25 Jan 2015Lord Ashcroft[23]85933%34%5%17%9%2%1%
16–19 Jan 2015ICM/The Guardian[24]86332%35%8%14%10%1%3%
16–18 Jan 2015Lord Ashcroft[23]87131%27%9%17%12%4%4%
11–13 Jan 2015Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard85435%35%8%12%8%2%Tied
9–11 Jan 2015Lord Ashcroft[23]85837%29%7%17%8%2%8%
12–16 Dec 2014ICM/The Guardian[24]86131%33%11%17%5%3%2%
13–15 Dec 2014Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard84036%31%9%14%10%0%5%
12–14 Dec 2014ComRes/The Independent89729%34%12%17%6%2%5%
5–7 Dec 2014Lord Ashcroft[23] 860 31%31%7%23%6%2%Tied
6 May 2010General Election Results25,085,09739.6%28.1%24.2%3.5%1.0%3.6%11.5%

Scotland

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeSNPLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
7 May 2015 General Election results 2,910,465 50.0% 24.3% 14.9% 7.5% 1.6% 1.3% 0.3% 25.7%
4–6 May 2015 YouGov/The Sun, The Times 1,351 48% 28% 14% 7% 1% 1% 1% 20%
3–6 May 2015 Survation/Daily Record 1,660 46% 26% 16% 7% 2% 3% 1% 20%
1–6 May 2015 Panelbase/Wings over Scotland 1,013 48% 26% 14% 5% 3% 2% 2% 22%
3 May 2015The Leaders' Debate featuring Ruth Davidson, Jim Murphy, Willie Rennie and Nicola Sturgeon broadcast on BBC One Scotland and BBC News
29 Apr–1 May 2015 YouGov/Sunday Times 1,162 49% 26% 15% 7% 2% 1% 0% 23%
30 Apr 2015Question Time featuring David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Milliband broadcast on BBC One; Ask Nicola Sturgeon programme also shown
22–27 Apr 2015 Ipsos MORI/STV News 1,071 54% 20% 17% 5% 1% 2% 1% 34%
22–27 Apr 2015 Survation/Daily Record 1,015 51% 26% 14% 5% 2% 1% <0.5% 25%
20–23 Apr 2015 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,044 48% 27% 16% 4% 3% 2% <0.5% 21%
16–20 Apr 2015 YouGov/The Times 1,111 49% 25% 17% 5% 3% 1% 0% 24%
1–19 Apr 2015 TNS 1,003 54% 22% 13% 6% 2% 2% 0% 32%
16 Apr 2015Five-way Opposition Leaders' Debate held on BBC One
12 Apr 2015Four-way Scottish Leaders' Debate on BBC Scotland, for Sunday Politics Scotland
8–9 Apr 2015 YouGov/The Times 1,056 49% 25% 18% 4% 2% 1% 1% 24%
8 Apr 2015Six-way Scottish Leaders' Debate on BBC Scotland
18 Mar–8 Apr 2015 TNS 978 52% 24% 13% 6% <0.5% 3% 0% 28%
7 Apr 2015Four-way Scottish Leaders' Debate on STV
2 Apr 2015Seven-way Leaders' Debate on ITV
30 Mar–2 Apr 2015 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,006 45% 29% 14% 4% 4% 2% <0.5% 16%
26–31 Mar 2015 YouGov/Scottish Sun 1,864 46% 29% 16% 3% 2% 2% <0.5% 17%
30 Mar 2015 Dissolution of the UK Parliament and the official start of the election campaign
26 Mar 2015First TV election interview by Jeremy Paxman with David Cameron and Ed Miliband on Sky and Channel 4
13–19 Mar 2015 ICM/The Guardian 1,002 43% 27% 14% 6% 7% 3% 1% 16%
12–17 Mar 2015 Survation/Daily Record 1,027 47% 26% 16% 4% 4% 2% 1% 21%
10–12 March 2015 YouGov/The Times 1,049 46% 27% 18% 4% 2% 3% 1% 19%
6–10 Mar 2015 Survation/Unison Scotland 1,005 47% 28% 15% 4% 3% 2% 1% 19%
30 Jan–22 Feb 2015 TNS 1,001 46% 30% 14% 3% 3% 4% 1% 16%
12–17 Feb 2015 Survation/Daily Record 1,011 45% 28% 15% 5% 3% 3% 1% 17%
29 Jan–2 Feb 2015 YouGov/The Times 1,001 48% 27% 15% 4% 4% 3% 1% 21%
14 Jan–2 Feb 2015 TNS 1,006 41% 31% 16% 4% 2% 6% 1% 10%
12–19 Jan 2015 Ipsos MORI/STV News 774 52% 24% 12% 4% 1% 4% 3% 28%
12–16 Jan 2015 Survation/Daily Record 1,006 46% 26% 14% 7% 4% 3% 1% 20%
9–14 Jan 2015 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,007 41% 31% 14% 3% 7% 3% 10%
16–18 Dec 2014 ICM/The Guardian 1,004 43% 26% 13% 6% 7% 4% 1% 17%
15–18 Dec 2014 Survation/Daily Record 1,001 48% 24% 16% 5% 4% 1% 1% 24%
13 Dec 2014 Jim Murphy becomes Leader of the Scottish Labour Party
9–11 Dec 2014 YouGov/The Sun 1,081 47% 27% 16% 3% 3% 3% 1% 20%
27 Nov Release of Smith Commission Report
19 Nov Nicola Sturgeon becomes First Minister of Scotland
6–13 Nov 2014 Survation/Daily Record 1,001 46% 24% 17% 6% 5% 2% 1% 22%
30 Oct–4 Nov 2014 Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland 1,000 45% 28% 15% 3% 7% 1% 1% 17%
27–30 Oct 2014 YouGov/The Times 1,078 43% 27% 15% 4% 6% 4% 1% 16%
22–29 Oct 2014 Ipsos Mori/STV 769 52% 23% 10% 6% 2% 6% 1% 29%
24 Oct 2014 Johann Lamont resigns as Leader of the Scottish Labour Party
29 Sep–1 Oct 2014 Panelbase/SNP 1,049 34% 32% 18% 5% 6% 5% 2%
19 Sep 2014 Scottish independence referendum
4–8 Jul 2014 Survation/Daily Record 786 38% 33% 17% 5% 5% 2% <1% 5%
25–26 Jun 2014 YouGov Unknown 31% 39% 16% 5% 10% 8%
6–10 Jun 2014 Survation/Daily Record 773 40% 32% 15% 5% 6% 1% 1% 8%
22 May European Parliament Elections, 2014
11–15 Apr 2014 Survation/Sunday Post 808 36% 36% 16% 6% 3% 1% 1% Tied
4–7 Apr 2014 Survation/Daily Record 803 40% 34% 15% 6% 3% 1% 1% 6%
6–7 Mar 2014 Survation/Daily Record 850 38% 36% 15% 5% 3% 1% 1% 2%
17–18 Feb 2014 Survation/Daily Mail 805 38% 33% 17% 6% 4% 2% 1% 5%
29–31 Jan 2014 Survation/Daily Mail 776 30% 39% 16% 6% 4% 2% 1% 9%
4–8 Oct 2013 Lord Ashcroft 737 31% 40% 18% 6% 2% 2% 1% 9%
22 Feb–9 May 2013 Lord Ashcroft 6,659 23% 45% 16% 8% 5% 2% <1% 22%
17–28 Oct 2012 Lord Ashcroft 703 39% 33% 17% 6% 7% 6%
17–20 Jul 2012 YouGov/Fabian Society 1,029 29% 43% 16% 8% 3% 3% 1% 14%
18–21 May 2012 YouGov Unknown 35% 40% 14% 5% 6% 5%
3 May 2012 Scottish Local Elections, 2012
22–24 Feb 2012 YouGov 1,053 30% 42% 17% 7% 4% 12%
5 May 2011 Scottish Parliament Election, 2011
26–29 Apr 2011 YouGov/Scotsman 1,108 28% 42% 17% 7% 1% 2% 2% 14%
19–21 Apr 2011 YouGov Unknown 30% 43% 15% 7% 5% 13%
13–15 Apr 2011 YouGov Unknown 28% 43% 16% 9% 5% 15%
25–28 Mar 2011 YouGov Unknown 26% 46% 17% 6% 5% 20%
18–20 Oct 2010 YouGov Unknown 26% 44% 18% 7% 5% 18%
31 Aug–3 Sep 2010 YouGov Unknown 29% 39% 16% 11% 5% 10%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 2,465,722 19.9% 42.0% 16.7% 18.9% 0.7% 0.7% 1.7% 22.1%

Wales

Date(s) conducted

Polling organisation/client

Sample size

Plaid

Lab

Con

LD

UKIP

Green

Others

 Lead
7 May 2015 General Election results 1,498,433 12.1% 36.9% 27.2% 6.5% 13.6% 2.6% 1.0% 9.7%
4–6 May 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,202 13% 39% 25% 8% 12% 2% 2% 14%
30 Apr 2015Question Time featuring David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Milliband broadcast on BBC One; Ask Nicola Sturgeon, Ask Leanne Wood and Ask Nigel Farage programmes also shown
28–30 April 2015 YouGov/Plaid Cymru 1,146 13% 39% 26% 6% 12% 3% 2% 13%
22 Apr 2015Six-way Wales Election Debate held on ITV
16 Apr 2015Five-way Opposition Leaders' Debate held on BBC One
13–15 April 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales, Cardiff University 1,143 12% 40% 26% 6% 13% 4% <0.5% 14%
2 Apr 2015 Seven-way Leaders' Debate on ITV
26–31 Mar 2015 YouGov/The Sun 1,035 9% 40% 27% 6% 13% 5% 1% 13%
30 Mar 2015 Dissolution of Parliament and the official start of the election campaign
24–27 Mar 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,189 11% 40% 25% 5% 14% 5% 1% 15%
26 Mar 2015First TV election interview by Jeremy Paxman with David Cameron and Ed Miliband on Sky and Channel 4
5–9 Mar 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,279 10% 39% 25% 5% 14% 6% 1% 14%
19–21 Jan 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,036 10% 37% 23% 6% 16% 8% 1% 14%
8–13 Jan 2015 ICM/BBC Wales 1,004 12% 38% 21% 7% 13% 6% 2% 17%
2–3 Dec 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,131 11% 36% 23% 5% 18% 5% 2% 13%
19–22 Sep 2014 ICM/BBC Wales 1,006 13% 39% 23% 5% 16% 2% 1% 16%
8–11 Sep 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,025 11% 38% 23% 6% 17% 5% 1% 15%
26 Jun–1 Jul 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,035 11% 41% 25% 5% 14% 3% 2% 16%
22 May 2014 European Parliament Elections, 2014
12–14 May 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,092 11% 43% 22% 7% 13% 3% 2% 21%
11–22 Apr 2014 YouGov/Cardiff University 1,027 11% 45% 24% 7% 10% 1% 2% 21%
21-24 Feb 2014 ICM/BBC Wales 1,000 15% 45% 24% 6% 8% 2% 1% 21%
10–12 Feb 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,250 11% 47% 22% 7% 9% 2% 2% 25%
2–4 Dec 2013 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,001 12% 46% 21% 8% 10% 2% 2% 25%
18–22 Jul 2013 YouGov 1,012 9% 48% 23% 8% 8% 2% 2% 25%
18–20 Feb 2013 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,007 10% 51% 22% 9% 7% 1% 1% 29%
2–4 Jul 2012 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,000 10% 54% 23% 4% 9% 21%
3 May 2012 Welsh Local Elections, 2012
12–16 Apr 2012 YouGov 1,039 12% 50% 23% 7% 9% 27%
30 Jan–1 Feb 2012 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,008 11% 50% 25% 6% 5% 3% 2% 25%
5 May 2011 Welsh Assembly Election, 2011
2–4 May 2011 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,010 10% 50% 24% 8% 4% 2% 2% 25%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 1,466,690 11.3% 36.2% 26.1% 20.1% 2.4% 0.4% 3.4% 10%

Northern Ireland

Date(s) conducted

Polling organisation/client

Sample size

DUP

SF

SDLP

UUP

Alliance

Others

7 May 2015 General Election Results (NI only) 718,103 25.7% 24.5% 13.9% 16.0% 8.6% 10.3%
11–24 Sep 2014 LucidTalk/Belfast Telegraph 1,089 26% 24% 15% 12% 6% 17%
7 Mar 2013 Mid Ulster by-election, 2013.
30 Sep 2013–28 Dec 2013 Northern Ireland Life & Times[25] 1,280 22% 20% 23% 16% 14% 5%
1 Oct 2012–10 Jan 2013 Northern Ireland Life & Times[26] 1,204 27% 19% 21% 16% 13% 3%
9 Jun 2011 Belfast West by-election, 2011.
01 Oct 2010–18 Dec 2010 Northern Ireland Life & Times[26] 1,205 24% 15% 23% 21% 13% 4%
6 May 2010 General Election Results (NI only) 673,871 25% 26% 16% 15% 6% 12%

London

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab UKIP LDGreen Others Lead
29 April–1 May 2015 YouGov/Evening Standard 1,313 33% 46% 8% 9% 3% 1% 13%
30 Apr 2015Question Time featuring David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Milliband broadcast on BBC One; Ask Nicola Sturgeon, Ask Leanne Wood and Ask Nigel Farage programmes also shown
20–22 April 2015 YouGov/Evening Standard 1,032 32% 44% 10% 8% 5% 1% 12%
16 Apr 2015Five-way Opposition Leaders' Debate held on BBC One
2 Apr 2015 Seven-way Leaders' Debate on ITV
30 Mar 2015 Dissolution of Parliament and the official start of the election campaign
26–30 Mar 2015 YouGov/Evening Standard 1,064 34% 45% 8% 8% 4% 1% 11%
20–26 Mar 2015 ICM/The Guardian 1,003 32% 42% 9% 7% 8% 1% 10%
26 Mar 2015First TV election interview by Jeremy Paxman with David Cameron and Ed Miliband on Sky and Channel 4
20–24 Mar 2015 ComRes/ITV News 1,004 32% 46% 9% 8% 4% 1% 14%
27 Feb–2 Mar 2015 YouGov/Evening Standard 1,011 32% 44% 10% 7% 5% <0.5% 12%
19–23 Feb 2015 YouGov/The Times 1,096 34% 42% 9% 8% 6% <0.5% 8%
19–21 Jan 2015 YouGov/Evening Standard 1,034 32% 42% 10% 7% 8% <0.5% 10%
15–18 Dec 2014 YouGov/Evening Standard 1,385 33% 41% 9% 9% 6% <0.5% 8%
8–13 Aug 2014 YouGov/Evening Standard 1,200 34% 41% 9% 10% 3% <0.5% 7%
21–24 Jul 2014 YouGov/Evening Standard 1,350 35% 45% 8% 8% 4% <0.5% 10%
17–19 Jun 2014 YouGov/Evening Standard 1,115 35% 42% 10% 8% 4% <0.5% 7%
6–8 May 2014 YouGov/Evening Standard 1,422 31% 44% 10% 11% 2% <0.5% 13%
29 Apr 2014 Survation 774 26% 42% 15% 12% 2% <0.5% 16%
7–9 Apr 2014 YouGov/Evening Standard 1,209 34% 42% 11% 9% 3% <0.5% 8%
8–10 Oct 2013 YouGov/Evening Standard 1,231 32% 45% 9% 10% 2% 2% 13%
20–25 Jun 2013 YouGov/Evening Standard 1,269 29% 48% 10% 9% 2% 3% 19%
24–30 Apr 2012 Opinium 736 33% 43%6% 10% 7% 2% 10%
27–29 Apr 2012 YouGov/Evening Standard 1,231 31% 47%8% 9% 3% 2% 16%
20–22 Apr 2012 YouGov/Evening Standard 1,138 31% 50%6% 8% 3% 2% 19%
13–15 Apr 2012 YouGov/Evening Standard 1,060 33% 50% 6% 7% 2% 2% 17%
12–15 March 2012 YouGov/Evening Standard 1,226 34% 46% 5% 9% 3% 2% 12%
7–10 Feb 2012 YouGov/Evening Standard 1,106 35% 47% 5% 9% 2% 2% 12%
10–16 Jan 2012 YouGov 1,349 34% 44% 5% 8% 3% 2% 10%
7–9 Jun 2011 YouGov 1,215 32% 51% 3% 8% 3%2% 19%
5–8 Oct 2010 YouGov 1,271 38% 42% 2% 13% 3%2% 4%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 3,401,317 34.5% 36.6% 1.7% 22.1% 1.6% 3.5% 2.1%

Detailed poll results

The tables above show poll results just for the five largest parties. Detailed poll results are given below. Often poll companies publish a combined result for SNP and Plaid Cymru, indicated by a merged cell below. Other cases of Party results' not being shown individually are included in the "Others" column, with the individual party's box remaining empty. Results showing <0.5% imply percentages ranging from 0.01% to 0.49%. 0.5% to 1.49% are rounded to 1%.

Methodology

Each polling organisation uses slightly different methodology in their collection of data; a brief description of each company's methods is as follows:

See also

References and notes

Notes
  1. ↑ Headline figures published to one decimal place: Con 31.4% Lab 31.4% UKIP 15.7% LD 9.6% Green 4.8 SNP 4.7% Plaid 0.4 Others 1.9%
  2. ↑ Final General Election 2015 prediction poll published 7 May 2015 with an additional 463 respondents added to the data published the previous day
  3. ↑ Preliminary prediction poll published 6 May 2015
  4. ↑ The question asked was "Thinking of the general election in May, for which party will you vote?" rather than Opinium's usual "If there were a general election tomorrow, for which party would you vote?"
  5. ↑ This is the VI portion (turnout weighted, Table 4) of Lord Ashcroft's NHS poll, released in January 2015. "VQ.2 If there was a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for? Base: All respondents expressing an intention to vote (Turnout weighted)"
  6. ↑ Final General Election 2015 prediction poll published 7 May 2015 with an additional 463 respondents added to the data published the previous day
  7. ↑ Preliminary prediction poll published 6 May 2015
  8. ↑ Only stand in Scotland
  9. ↑ Only stand in Wales
  10. ↑ Polling organisations treat the two Green Parties in Great Britain, the Green Party of England & Wales and the Scottish Green Party, together.
  11. ↑ Unusually amongst polling companies, Survation report to one decimal place, and reported Con 30.8%, Lab 31.2%.
  12. ↑ Since December 2014, TNS's polls have been mostly branded as TNS or TNS Global.

P – The dates when the fieldwork for this poll was carried out are unknown; therefore, the date of publication has been given.

References
  1. ↑ Farmer, Ben. "Why the opinion polls got it so wrong, YouGov president explains". The Telegraph. Retrieved 8 May 2015.
  2. ↑ Logue, Patrick. "UK Election: Ten key points from the count". Irish Times. Retrieved 8 May 2015.
  3. ↑ Bennister, Mark. "UK Election 2015: how the votes stacked up for David Cameron". The Conversation. Retrieved 8 May 2015.
  4. ↑ Selby, Jenn. "Paddy Ashdown's hat becomes the unlikely star of election night after the former Lib Dem leader's misguided prediction". The Independent. Retrieved 8 May 2015.
  5. ↑ "Ashcroft National Poll: CATI Fieldwork 17-19 April 2015" (PDF). Lord Ashcroft. 20 April 2015. Retrieved 20 April 2015.
  6. ↑ "Westminster Voting Intention". UK Opinion Bee. Retrieved 31 January 2015.
  7. ↑ "Election 2015: Results - National". BBC. Retrieved 9 May 2015.
  8. ↑ "Election 2015: Results - Northern Ireland". BBC. Retrieved 9 May 2015.
  9. ↑ Parker, George (5 May 2015). "Parties struggle to break UK election deadlock". Financial Times. Retrieved 11 May 2015.
  10. 1 2 Lyons Lowe, Damian (8 May 2015). "Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory". Survation. Retrieved 8 May 2015.
  11. ↑ Balz, Dan (7 May 2015). "Cameron expected to emerge victorious, survey finds". Washington Post. Retrieved 11 May 2015.
  12. ↑ Trevelyan, Mark (6 May 2015). "Panelbase poll on election eve puts Labour 2 points ahead". Reuters. Retrieved 11 May 2015.
  13. 1 2 "BMG Research expands into political polling". 29 April 2015. Retrieved 29 April 2015.
  14. ↑ See also "Opinium poll that "slipped out" has CON ahead with the LDs down on 5%". politicalbetting.com. Retrieved 22 November 2014.
  15. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ICM adjust for don't know/refusers by reallocating a proportion of those to the major party they tend to support. Percentage for Greens is based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers.
  16. 1 2 3 4 Lord Ashcroft adjusts for don't know/refusers by reallocating a proportion of those to the party they tend to support. Before 2 Jun 2014 Ashcroft percentages for Greens are based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers.
  17. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 ICM adjust for don't know/refusers by reallocating a proportion of those to the major party they tend to support. Percentage for UKIP and Greens is based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers.
  18. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Populus adjust for don't know/refusers by reallocating a proportion of those to the major party they tend to support. Percentage for UKIP and Greens at this date is based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers.
  19. ↑ "Vote 2011: England council elections". BBC. Retrieved 22 November 2014.
  20. 1 2 3 4 It should be noted that BPIX is not a member of the British Polling Council, unlike the other main pollsters such as YouGov, ComRes, Populus, Ipsos MORI, and ICM. Therefore, the full details of its polls are not subject to public disclosure.
  21. ↑ "Election 2010: Results - National". BBC. Retrieved 9 May 2015.
  22. ↑ "Election 2010: Results - Northern Ireland". BBC. Retrieved 9 May 2015.
  23. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Lord Ashcroft adjusts for don't know/refusers by reallocating a proportion of those to the party they tend to support. The England figures are based on a table that does not adjust for don't knows/refusers.
  24. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 ICM adjust for don't know/refusers by reallocating a proportion of those to the major party they tend to support. Percentages for England are based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers.
  25. ↑ The question asked was "Which of these political parties do you feel closest to?", not a voting intention question.
  26. 1 2 http://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2012/Political_Attitudes/POLPART2.html. Retrieved 3 January 2015. Missing or empty |title= (help)
  27. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 ICM adjust for don't know/refusers by reallocating a proportion of those to the major party they tend to support. Percentages for SNP/Plaid Cymru/Greens/BNP are based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers.
  28. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Michael Ashcroft adjusts for don't know/refusers by reallocating a proportion of those to the party they tend to support. At this date percentages for Greens/BNP/Others are based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers.
  29. ↑ "Angus Reid Public Opinion Methodology" (PDF). Angus Reid Public Opinion. 20 July 2011. Retrieved 26 July 2011.
  30. ↑ "BMG Research". 4 February 2016. Retrieved 4 February 2016.
  31. ↑ "PoliticsHome". 4 February 2016. Retrieved 4 February 2016.
  32. ↑ "May2015". 4 February 2016. Retrieved 4 February 2016.
  33. ↑ Wells, Anthony (29 April 2015). "BMG, MORI Scotland, Ashcroft constituencies and ComRes marginals". UK Polling Report. Retrieved 2 May 2015.
  34. ↑ "Election 2015: New exclusive poll puts Tories three points ahead of Labour". May2015.com. 29 April 2015. Retrieved 5 May 2015.
  35. ↑ "Election 2015: New exclusive poll puts Labour and Tories on exactly 33.7 per sent each". May2015.com. 5 May 2015. Retrieved 5 May 2015.
  36. ↑ "Public Polling Methodology". ComRes. Retrieved 26 July 2011.
  37. ↑ "July Poll for the Guardian" (PDF). ICM Research. Retrieved 26 July 2011.
  38. ↑ "Data Collection". Ipsos MORI. Retrieved 26 July 2011.
  39. ↑ "Tories lead in my first weekly national poll". Lord Ashcroft Polls. Retrieved 19 May 2014.
  40. ↑ "Sheffield Hallam, Doncaster North and Thanet South". Lord Ashcroft Polls. 7 February 2015. Retrieved 9 February 2015.
  41. ↑ "Ashcroft – CON 34, LAB 32, LDEM 9, UKIP 15". Anthony Wells. Retrieved 2 November 2014.
  42. ↑ "Minutes of the Annual General Meeting 2013". British Polling Council. Retrieved 19 May 2014.
  43. ↑ Curtice, John (16 April 2015). "Reading the Polls: Election 2015 and The British Polling Council". British Polling Council. Retrieved 1 May 2015.
  44. ↑ "Political Polling". Opinium Research LLP. Retrieved 18 April 2012.
  45. ↑ "Populus sampling and weighting methodology". Populus. Retrieved 26 July 2011.
  46. ↑ "Survation Poll The Budget Aftermath For The Mail On Sunday". Survation. Retrieved 27 March 2012.
  47. ↑ "TNS BMRB Methodology". TNS BMRB. Retrieved 17 December 2012.
  48. ↑ "Panel Methodology". YouGov. Retrieved 26 July 2011.

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