United Kingdom general election, 2015 (England)

United Kingdom general election, 2015^[1]

7 May 2015

All 533 English seats to the House of Commons   First party Second party Third party   Leader David Cameron Ed Miliband Nick Clegg Party Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat Leader since 6 December 2005 25 September 2010 18 December 2007 Leader's seat Witney Doncaster North Sheffield Hallam Last election 298 seats, 39.6% 191 seats, 28.1% 43 seats, 24.2% Seats before 298 191 43 Seats won 319 206 6 Seat change 21 15 37 Popular vote 10,483,555 8,087,706 2,098,430 Percentage 41.0% 31.6% 8.2% Swing 1.4% 3.6% 16%   Fourth party Fifth party   Leader Nigel Farage Natalie Bennett Party UKIP Green Leader since 5 November 2010 3 September 2012 Leader's seat Lost Thanet South Lost Holborn and St Pancras Last election 0 seats, 3.5% 1 seat, 1.0% Seats before 2 1 Seats won 1 1 Seat change 1 0 Popular vote 3,611,367 1,073,242 Percentage 14.1% 4.2% Swing 10.7% 3.2%

Colours on map indicate winning party for each constituency.

Prime Minister before election David Cameron Conservative Subsequent Prime Minister David Cameron Conservative

The United Kingdom general election, 2015, was held on 7 May 2015 across 533 constituencies within England.

Political context

The general election was fought with the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats having been in coalition since 2010, with Labour being the main opposition; though with election the Conservatives holding the majority of English seats. It was also fought following the victory of UKIP in the European Elections and in to by-elections the year before (2014). Along with George Galloway of the Respect Party winning the Bradford West by-election, 2012 from Labour.

Results overview

The Conservatives emerged as the largest party increasing both its number of seats and votes winning seats both from the Liberal Democrats and the Labour party, as well as holding on to many of their key marginal seats.

Labour though increasing both in number of votes and seats after making gains against the Liberal Democrats along with limited gains against the Conservative Party failed to become the largest party losing its Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls to the Conservatives, with its leader Ed Miliband resigning as Labour leader.

The Liberal Democrats lost the vast majority of its seats barely keeping that of its former leader Nicolas Clegg who resigned on the morning of the election results.

UKIP made large gains in the percentage of votes, though failed to retain Rochester and Strood or to take any seats, leading to the resignation of its leader Nigel Farage.

The Green party increased its share of the vote and held Brighton Pavilion but also failed to make any gains.

^[2]

Party		Seats	Seats change	Votes	%	% change
	Conservative	319	+21	10,483,611	41.0	+1.4
	Labour	206	+15	8,087,684	31.6	+3.6
	Liberal Democrat	6	-37	2,098,404	8.2	-16.0
	UKIP	1	+1	3,611,367	14.1	+10.7
	Green	1	0	1,073,242	4.2	+3.2
	TUSC	0	0	32,868	0.1	+0.1
	National Health Action	0	0	20,210	0.1	0.0
	Respect	0	0	9,989	0.0	-0.1
	Yorkshire First	0	0	6,811	0.0	0.0
	English Democrats	0	0	6,431	0.0	-0.2
	CISTA	0	0	4,569	0.0	0.0
	Monster Raving Loony	0	0	3,432	0.0	0.0
	Christian Peoples	0	0	3,260	0.0	0.0
	BNP	0	0	1,667	0.0	-2.1
	Class War	0	0	526	0.0	0.0
		Others	0	0	127,133	0.5	-0.2
Turnout:				25,571,204	65.9	+0.4

Votes summary

Popular vote
Conservative			40.99%
Labour			31.63%
UKIP			14.12%
Liberal Democrats			8.21%
Greens			4.20%
Other			0.85%

Parliament seats
Conservative			59.85%
Labour			38.65%
Liberal Democrats			1.13%
UKIP			0.19%
Greens			0.19%

Campaign events

• 31st March: First official day of the election campaign
• 13th April: Labour Party launched its manifesto ^[3]
• 14th April: Conservative Party and Green Party launched their manifestos
• 15th April: UKIP and the Liberal Democrats launched their manifestos
• 7th May: BBC Exit poll showed the Conservative party as the largest party
• 8th May: Conservative Party emerges as the largest party in England, gaining a majority of M.P.s in the House of Commons and forming the next Government of the United Kingdom as a Majority.

Target seats

The recorded swing in each case is calculated as two-way swing from the party that won in 2010 to the party targeting the seat. Negative swing implies that the targeting party lost votes to the incumbent party.

Conservative Party

Rank	Constituency	Region	Winning party 2010		Swing required (%)	Result		Swing to CON (±%)
1	Hampstead and Kilburn	London		Labour	0.10		Labour hold	-1.0
2	Bolton West	North West England		Labour	0.10		Conservative gain	+0.9
3	Solihull	West Midlands		Liberal Democrats	0.16		Conservative gain	+11.9
4	Southampton Itchen	South East England		Labour	0.22		Conservative gain	+2.8
5	Mid Dorset and North Poole	South West England		Liberal Democrats	0.29		Conservative gain	+11.6
6	Wirral South	North West England		Labour	0.66		Labour hold	-4.8
7	Derby North	East Midlands		Labour	0.68		Conservative gain	+0.8
8	Wells	South West England		Liberal Democrats	0.72		Conservative gain	+7.4
9	Dudley North	West Midlands		Labour	0.84		Labour hold	-4.7
10	Great Grimsby	Yorkshire and the Humber		Labour	1.08		Labour hold	-5.7

Labour Party

Rank	Constituency	Region	Winning party 2010		Swing required (%)	Result		Swing to LAB (±%)
1	North Warwickshire	West Midlands		Conservative	0.06		Conservative hold	−3.1
2	Thurrock	South East England		Conservative	0.10		Conservative hold	−0.5
3	Hendon	London		Conservative	0.11		Conservative hold	−3.7
4	Sherwood	East Midlands		Conservative	0.22		Conservative hold	−4.4
5	Norwich South	East of England		Liberal Democrats	0.33		Labour gain	+13.2
6	Stockton South	North East England		Conservative	0.33		Conservative hold	−4.6
7	Broxtowe	East Midlands		Conservative	0.37		Conservative hold	−3.7
8	Lancaster and Fleetwood	North West England		Conservative	0.39		Labour gain	+1.9
9	Bradford East	Yorkshire and the Humber		Liberal Democrats	0.45		Labour gain	+9.0
10	Amber Valley	East Midlands		Conservative	0.58		Conservative hold	−4.1

Liberal Democrats

Rank	Constituency	Region	Winning party 2010		Swing required (%)	Result		Swing to LD (±%)
1	Camborne and Redruth	South West England		Conservative	0.08		Conservative hold	−13.8
2	Oxford West and Abingdon	South East England		Conservative	0.16		Conservative hold	−8.3
3	Sheffield Central	Yorkshire and the Humber		Labour	0.20		Labour hold	−22.5
4	Ashfield	East Midlands		Labour	0.20		Labour hold	−12.9
5	Truro and Falmouth	South West England		Conservative	0.45		Conservative hold	−13.2

UKIP

Rank[4]	Constituency	Region	Winning party 2010		Swing required (%)	Result		Swing to UKIP (±%)
1	Thanet South	South East England		Conservative	21.2		Conservative hold	+18.4
2	Thurrock	East of England		Conservative	14.7		Conservative hold	+13.7
3	Castle Point	East of England		Conservative	(No candidate in 2010)		Conservative hold	(Vote share: 31.2%)
4	Boston and Skegness	East of England		Conservative	20.0		Conservative hold	+15.0
5	Great Grimsby	Yorkshire and the Humber		Labour	13.3		Labour hold	+5.9

Green Party

Swing for the Greens is measured as one-party swing, i.e. the change in the party's share of the vote.

Rank[5]	Constituency	Region	Winning party 2010		Result		Swing to GRN (±%)
1	Norwich South	East of England		Liberal Democrats		Labour gain	−1.0
2	Bristol West	South East England		Liberal Democrats		Labour gain	+23.0
3	St Ives	South West England		Liberal Democrats		Conservative gain	+3.5
4	Sheffield Central	Yorkshire and the Humber		Labour		Labour hold	+12.1
5	Liverpool Riverside	North West England		Labour		Labour hold	+8.6

Opinion polling

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
7 May 2015	Election 2015 Results	25,571,204	41.0%	31.6%	8.2%	14.1%	4.2%	0.9%	9.4%
30 Apr–1 May 2015	Survation/Daily Mirror	978	36%	34%	10%	17%	4%	<0.5%	2%
30 Apr 2015	Question Time featuring David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Milliband broadcast on BBC One; Ask Nicola Sturgeon, Ask Leanne Wood and Ask Nigel Farage programmes also shown
27–28 Apr 2015	ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail	872	36%	36%	8%	12%	6%	2%	Tied
25–27 Apr 2015	BMG/May2015.com	877	39%	31%	11%	15%	4%	<0.5%	8%
24–26 Apr 2015	Lord Ashcroft[6]	870	37%	32%	9%	12%	8%	1%	5%
24–26 Apr 2015	ICM/The Guardian[7]	863	39%	32%	7%	15%	6%	<0.5%	7%
24–25 Apr 2015	Survation/Mail on Sunday	879	36%	31%	9%	20%	4%	<0.5%	5%
21–24 Apr 2015	Opinium/The Observer	1,668	36%	33%	9%	15%	7%	1%	3%
22–23 Apr 2015	Survation/Daily Mirror	1,072	36%	29%	10%	20%	5%	<0.5%	7%
21–22 Apr 2015	ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail	890	39%	34%	8%	11%	5%	3%	5%
17–19 Apr 2015	Lord Ashcroft[6]	863	36%	33%	9%	14%	5%	2%	3%
17–19 Apr 2015	ICM/The Guardian[7]	863	38%	35%	9%	12%	5%	1%	3%
16–17 Apr 2015	Opinium/The Observer	1,655	38%	32%	9%	14%	6%	1%	6%
16–17 Apr 2015	Survation/Daily Mirror	986	35%	34%	8%	18%	3%	1%	1%
16 Apr 2015	Five-way Opposition Leaders' Debate held on BBC One
12–15 Apr 2015	Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard	600	35%	37%	8%	11%	8%	1%	2%
10–12 Apr 2015	Lord Ashcroft[6]	870	34%	36%	9%	14%	6%	1%	2%
10–12 Apr 2015	ICM/The Guardian[7]	900	41%	35%	7%	8%	8%	1%	6%
8–9 Apr 2015	Opinium/The Observer	1,626	39%	35%	8%	12%	6%	1%	4%
8–9 Apr 2015	Survation/Daily Mirror	838	33%	36%	9%	16%	5%	1%	3%
7–8 Apr 2015	ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail	718	36%	35%	11%	13%	4%	1%	1%
2–3 Apr 2015	Survation/Daily Mirror	856	34%	33%	9%	21%	3%	<0.5%	1%
2–3 Apr 2015	Opinium/The Observer	1,710	35%	34%	7%	15%	7%	1%	1%
2 Apr 2015	Seven-way Leaders' Debate on ITV
30 Mar 2015	Dissolution of Parliament and the official start of the election campaign
28–29 Mar 2015	ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail	864	38%	32%	9%	13%	6%	2%	6%
27–29 Mar 2015	Lord Ashcroft[6]	865	40%	34%	7%	11%	7%	1%	6%
26 Mar 2015	First TV election interview by Jeremy Paxman with David Cameron and Ed Miliband on Sky and Channel 4
24–25 Mar 2015	Opinium/The Observer	1,690	35%	34%	9%	13%	7%	<0.5%	1%
24–25 Mar 2015	Survation/Daily Mirror	851	34%	34%	8%	20%	4%	<0.5%	Tied
20–22 Mar 2015	ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail	864	38%	35%	8%	11%	7%	1%	3%
20–22 Mar 2015	Lord Ashcroft[6]	860	36%	33%	8%	14%	6%	2%	3%
20–21 Mar 2015	Survation/Mail on Sunday	861	31%	35%	10%	19%	3%	1%	4%
18–19 Mar 2015	Opinium/The Observer	1,702	37%	33%	7%	14%	7%	1%	4%
13–15 Mar 2015	Lord Ashcroft[6]	863	34%	29%	8%	18%	9%	3%	5%
13–15 Mar 2015	ICM/The Guardian[7]	910	38%	37%	6%	11%	5%	3%	1%
10–12 Mar 2015	Opinium/The Observer	1,654	35%	35%	7%	15%	7%	<0.5%	Tied
8–11 Mar 2015	Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard	863	34%	37%	8%	14%	6%	1%	3%
6–8 Mar 2015	Lord Ashcroft[6]	859	36%	31%	5%	18%	9%	1%	5%
3–6 Mar 2015	Opinium/The Observer	1,626	36%	33%	7%	15%	7%	3%	3%
27 Feb–1 Mar 2015	Lord Ashcroft[6]	860	36%	32%	8%	14%	7%	2%	4%
24–26 Feb 2015	Opinium/The Observer	1,679	35%	36%	7%	14%	6%	1%	1%
23 Feb 2015	Survation/Daily Mirror	921	30%	34%	10%	21%	3%	2%	4%
20–23 Feb 2015	ComRes/Daily Mail	865	36%	32%	7%	14%	9%	2%	4%
20–22 Feb 2015	Lord Ashcroft[6]	867	32%	38%	6%	13%	8%	2%	6%
17–20 Feb 2015	Opinium/The Observer	1,704	36%	33%	7%	16%	7%	1%	3%
13–15 Feb 2015	Lord Ashcroft[6]	863	31%	31%	9%	18%	9%	3%	Tied
13–15 Feb 2015	ICM/The Guardian[7]	860	38%	34%	7%	10%	8%	2%	4%
10–12 Feb 2015	Opinium/The Observer	1,713	35%	35%	8%	15%	5%	1%	Tied
8–10 Feb 2015	Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard	844	38%	37%	7%	10%	8%	0%	1%
6–8 Feb 2015	Lord Ashcroft[6]	860	36%	31%	9%	16%	7%	1%	5%
3–6 Feb 2015	Opinium/The Observer	1,947	33%	35%	7%	15%	8%	2%	2%
30 Jan–1 Feb 2015	Lord Ashcroft[6]	857	34%	30%	8%	17%	10%	1%	4%
25 Jan 2015	Survation/Daily Mirror	890	34%	30%	7%	25%	4%	<0.5%	4%
23–25 Jan 2015	ComRes/The Independent	852	33%	29%	9%	20%	8%	1%	4%
22–25 Jan 2015	Lord Ashcroft[6]	859	33%	34%	5%	17%	9%	2%	1%
16–19 Jan 2015	ICM/The Guardian[7]	863	32%	35%	8%	14%	10%	1%	3%
16–18 Jan 2015	Lord Ashcroft[6]	871	31%	27%	9%	17%	12%	4%	4%
11–13 Jan 2015	Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard	854	35%	35%	8%	12%	8%	2%	Tied
9–11 Jan 2015	Lord Ashcroft[6]	858	37%	29%	7%	17%	8%	2%	8%
12–16 Dec 2014	ICM/The Guardian[7]	861	31%	33%	11%	17%	5%	3%	2%
13–15 Dec 2014	Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard	840	36%	31%	9%	14%	10%	0%	5%
12–14 Dec 2014	ComRes/The Independent	897	29%	34%	12%	17%	6%	2%	5%
5–7 Dec 2014	Lord Ashcroft[6]	860	31%	31%	7%	23%	6%	2%	Tied
6 May 2010	General Election Results	25,085,097	39.6%	28.1%	24.2%	3.5%	1.0%	3.6%	11.5%

Endorsements

Result

England vote share after 533 of 533 seats

• Conservative: 319 seats in total. 32 seats gained. 11 seats lost.+21 net change in seats. 10,483,611 total votes taken. 41.0% share of the total vote +1.4% change in share of the votes
• Labour: 206 seats in total. 21 seats gained. 6 seats lost. +15 net change in seats. 8,087,684 total votes taken. 31.6% share of the total vote +3.6% change in share of the votes
• Liberal Democrat 6 seats in total. 0 seats gained. 37 seats lost. -37 net change in seats. 2,098,404 total votes taken. 8.2% share of the total vote -16.0% change in share of the votes
• UKIP: 1 seats in total. 1 seats gained. 0 seats lost. +1 net change in seats. 3,611,367 total votes taken. 14.1% share of the total vote +10.7% change in share of the votes
• Green Party : 1 seats in total. 0 seats gained. 0 seats lost. 0 net change in seats. 1,073,242 total votes taken. 4.2% share of the total vote +3.2% change in share of the votes

References

1. Election 2010 United Kingdom - National Results BBC News
2. Election 2015 Results England BBC News
3. "General Election 2015: Monday 13 April as it happened". Telegraph.co.uk. 13 April 2015.
4. "Ukip target seats to secure a breakthrough in the 2015 general election". Mirror Online. 1 April 2015. Retrieved 12 May 2015.
5. "Green Party's top target seats in the General Election if Natalie Bennett is to lead a breakthrough". Mirror Online. 2 April 2015. Retrieved 12 May 2015.
6. Lord Ashcroft adjusts for don't know/refusers by reallocating a proportion of those to the party they tend to support. The England figures are based on a table that does not adjust for don't knows/refusers.
7. ICM adjust for don't know/refusers by reallocating a proportion of those to the major party they tend to support. Percentages for England are based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers.