United Kingdom general election, 2015 (Wales)

United Kingdom general election, 2015
Wales
7 May 2015
All 40 Welsh seats to the House of Commons
  First party Second party
 
Leader Ed Miliband David Cameron
Party Labour Conservative
Leader since 25 September 2010 6 December 2005
Last election 26 8
Seats before 26 8
Seats won 25 11
Seat change Decrease1 Increase3
Popular vote 552,473 408,213
Percentage 36.9% 27.2%
Swing Increase0.6% Increase1.1%
  Third party Fourth party
 
Leader Leanne Wood Nick Clegg
Party Plaid Cymru Liberal Democrat
Leader since 16 March 2012 18 December 2007
Last election 3 3
Seats before 3 3
Seats won 3 1
Seat change 0 Decrease2
Popular vote 181,704 97,783
Percentage 12.1% 6.5%
Swing Increase0.8% Decrease13.6%

Prime Minister before election

David Cameron
Conservative

 Subsequent Prime Minister

David Cameron
Conservative

The 2015 United Kingdom general election in Wales was held on 7 May 2015 and all 40 seats in Wales were contested.[2] The election for each seat was conducted on the basis of 'first past the post'.


Results overview

A full list of the results in Wales can be found in the House of Commons Library General Elections Online. [1] The following is an overall table of results for Wales by the BBC. [3]

Party Seats Votes
Total Gained Lost Net Total % Change (%)
  Labour1 25 1 2 -1 552,473 36.9 +0.6
  Conservative 11 3 0 +3 407,813 27.2 +1.1
  UKIP 0 0 0 0 204,330 13.6 +11.2
  Plaid Cymru 3 0 0 0 181,704 12.1 +0.8
  Liberal Democrats 1 0 2 -2 97,783 6.5 -13.6
  Green 0 0 0 0 38,344 2.6 +2.1
  Socialist Labour Party 0 0 0 0 3,481 0.2 +0.2
  TUSC 0 0 0 0 1,780 0.1 +0.1
  Others 0 0 0 0 10,355 0.7 -0.5
Total 40 1,498,063

1 Labour Co-operative Party are also included in the Labour figures


Popular vote
Labour
  
 36.87%
Conservative
  
 27.22%
UKIP
  
 13.64%
Plaid Cymru
  
 12.13%
Liberal Democrats
  
 6.53%
Greens
  
 2.56%
Other
  
 1.05%
Parliament seats
Labour
  
 62.50%
Conservative
  
 27.50%
Plaid Cymru
  
 7.50%
Liberal Democrats
  
 2.50%
Election turnout statistics source and comment
Estimated total population of Wales 3.1M [4] data for 30 June 2015
Total eligible electorate 2.281M 1 [5]
electorate as proportion of total population 74%
Total valid votes 1.498M 1 [6]
Mean turnout based on total valid votes 65.67%
Mean as average of constituency results 65.64%
Mean as above but based on ballot box turnout 65.77% 1 ballot box turnout includes rejected ballots [6]
Median valid vote turnout 65.0% turnout midway between 20th and 21st constituency
UK median valid vote turnout 66.7% [7] for comparison with above

1 valid vote, count of rejected ballots and total electorate come from the source(s) given in 'Table of results by constituency' below.

Table of results by constituency
constituency 1 total electorate 2 winning party majority source(s)
Aberavon 49,821 Welsh Labour hold 10,445 [8]
Aberconwy 45,525 Welsh Conservative Party hold 3,999 [9]
Alyn and Deeside 62,016 Welsh Labour hold 3,343 [10]
Arfon 40,492 Plaid Cymru hold 3,668 [11] [12]
Blaenau Gwent 51,335 Welsh Labour hold 12,703 [13]
Brecon and Radnorshire 54,441 Welsh Conservative Party gain 5,102 [14] [15]
Bridgend 59,998 Welsh Labour hold 1,927 [16]
Caerphilly 63,603 Welsh Labour hold 10,073 [17]
Cardiff Central 57,456 Welsh Labour gain 4,981 [18]
Cardiff North 67,196 Welsh Conservative Party hold 2,137 [19]
Cardiff South and Penarth 76,006 Labour Co-operative Party hold 7,453 [20]
Cardiff West 66,762 Welsh Labour hold 6,789 [21]
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 55,605 Plaid Cymru hold 5,599 [22] [23]
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire 57,777[24] Welsh Conservative Party hold 6,054 [25]
Ceredigion 54,243 Welsh Liberal Democrats hold 3,067 [26]
Clwyd South 54,996 Welsh Labour hold 2,402 [27]
Clwyd West 58,644 Welsh Conservative Party hold 6,730 [28]
Cynon Valley 51,422 Welsh Labour hold 9,406 [29]
Delyn 53,639 Welsh Labour hold 2,930 [30]
Dwyfor Meirionnydd 44,394 Plaid Cymru hold 5,261 [11] [31]
Gower 61,820 Welsh Conservative Party gain 27 [32]
Islwyn 55,697 Labour Co-operative Party hold 10,404 [33]
Llanelli 59,796 Welsh Labour hold 7,095 [34] [35]
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney 61,716 Welsh Labour hold 11,513 [36]
Monmouth 62,248 Welsh Conservative Party hold 10,982 [37]
Montgomeryshire 48,690 Welsh Conservative Party hold 5,325 [14] [38]
Neath 56,097 Welsh Labour hold 9,546 [8]
Newport East 56,015 Welsh Labour hold 4,705 [39] [40]
Newport West 62,137 Welsh Labour hold 3,510 [39] [41]
Ogmore 55,320[42] Welsh Labour hold13,043 [16]
Pontypridd 58,940 Welsh Labour hold 8,985 [29]
Preseli Pembrokeshire 57,371[43] Welsh Conservative Party hold 4,969 [25]
Rhondda 51,811 Welsh Labour hold 7,455 [29]
Swansea East 58,011 Welsh Labour hold 12,028 [32]
Swansea West 58,776 Welsh Labour 3 hold 7,036 [32]
Torfaen 61,896 Welsh Labour hold 8,169 [44]
Vale of Clwyd 56,505 Welsh Conservative Party gain 237 [45]
Vale of Glamorgan 72,187 Welsh Conservative Party hold 6,880 [46]
Wrexham 50,992 Welsh Labour hold 1,831 [47]
Ynys Môn 49,939 Welsh Labour hold 229 [48] [49]

1 The information on the winning party and the majority come from the source(s) indicated.
2 The total electorate comes from [1] unless another reference is given.
3 The MP is a Labour Co-op Party member[50] but he was nominated as 'Welsh Labour'.[51]


Target seats

Labour

Liberal Democrats

Conservative

Plaid Cymru

Opinion polling

Date(s) conducted

Polling organisation/client

Sample size

Plaid

Lab

Con

LD

UKIP

Green

Others

 Lead
16 Apr 2015Five-way Opposition Leaders' Debate held on BBC One
13–15 April 2015 YouGov/ITV/Cardiff University 1,143 12% 40% 26% 6% 13% 4% <0.5% 14%
2 Apr 2015 Seven-way Leaders' Debate on ITV
26–31 Mar 2015 YouGov/The Sun 1,035 9% 40% 27% 6% 13% 5% 1% 13%
30 Mar 2015 Dissolution of Parliament and the official start of the election campaign
24–27 Mar 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,189 11% 40% 25% 5% 14% 5% 1% 15%
26 Mar 2015First TV election interview by Jeremy Paxman with David Cameron and Ed Miliband on Sky and Channel 4
5–9 Mar 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,279 10% 39% 25% 5% 14% 6% 1% 14%
19–21 Jan 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,036 10% 37% 23% 6% 16% 8% 1% 14%
8–13 Jan 2015 ICM/BBC Wales 1,004 12% 38% 21% 7% 13% 6% 2% 17%
2–3 Dec 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,131 11% 36% 23% 5% 18% 5% 2% 13%
19–22 Sep 2014 ICM/BBC Wales 1,006 13% 39% 23% 5% 16% 2% 1% 16%
8–11 Sep 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,025 11% 38% 23% 6% 17% 5% 1% 15%
26 Jun–1 Jul 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,035 11% 41% 25% 5% 14% 3% 2% 16%
22 May 2014 European Parliament Elections, 2014
12–14 May 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,092 11% 43% 22% 7% 13% 3% 2% 21%
11–22 Apr 2014 YouGov/University of Cardiff 1,027 11% 45% 24% 7% 10% 1% 2% 21%
21-24 Feb 2014 ICM/BBC Wales 1,000 15% 45% 24% 6% 8% 2% 1% 21%
10–12 Feb 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,250 11% 47% 22% 7% 9% 2% 2% 25%
2–4 Dec 2013 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,001 12% 46% 21% 8% 10% 2% 2% 25%
18–22 Jul 2013 YouGov 1,012 9% 48% 23% 8% 8% 2% 2% 25%
18–20 Feb 2013 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,007 10% 51% 22% 9% 7% 1% 1% 29%
2–4 Jul 2012 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,000 10% 54% 23% 4% 9% 21%
3 May 2012 Welsh Local Elections, 2012
12–16 Apr 2012 YouGov 1,039 12% 50% 23% 7% 9% 27%
30 Jan–1 Feb 2012 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,008 11% 50% 25% 6% 5% 3% 2% 25%
5 May 2011 Welsh Assembly Election, 2011
2–4 May 2011 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,010 10% 50% 24% 8% 4% 2% 2% 25%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 1,466,690 11.3% 36.2% 26.1% 20.1% 2.4% 0.4% 3.4% 10%

References

  1. 1 2 3 "May 2015 results for Wales". General Elections Online. House of Commons Library. Retrieved 2 September 2015.
  2. ↑ "Election 2015 - Wales". BBC News. Retrieved 8 May 2015.
  3. ↑ "Results of the 2015 General Election in Wales - Election 2015 - BBC News". BBC News. Retrieved 2016-01-03.
  4. ↑ "Population of Wales 2014". Overview of the UK Population. UK Office of National Statistics. Retrieved 18 September 2015.
  5. ↑ "eligible voters". Who is eligible to vote at a UK general election?. The Electoral Commission. Retrieved 20 September 2015.
  6. 1 2 "Voter turnout". Electoral data. The Electoral Commission. Retrieved 20 September 2015.
  7. ↑ "Ranked list of constituencies by turnout". General Elections Online. House of Commons Library. Retrieved 6 September 2015.
  8. 1 2 "Aberavon and Neath Results" (PDF). UK Parliamentary Elections May 2015 results. Neath Port Talbot County Borough Council. Retrieved 16 September 2015.
  9. ↑ "Aberconwy Result" (PDF). Election Results. Conwy County Borough Council. Retrieved 16 September 2015.
  10. ↑ "Alyn and Deeside result". Election Results For Alyn And Deeside. Flintshire County Council. Retrieved 20 September 2015.
  11. 1 2 "Gwynedd Council results". Parliamentary Election results - 7 May 2015. Gwynedd Council. Retrieved 20 September 2015.
  12. ↑ rejected ballots 95 email from Gwynedd Council 3Jun15
  13. ↑ "Blaenau Gwent result". Blaenau Gwent Parliamentary Constituency Election 2015. Blaenau Gwent County Borough Council. Retrieved 20 September 2015.
  14. 1 2 "Powys election results". 2015 General Election results. Powys County Council. Retrieved 20 September 2015.
  15. ↑ rejected ballots 71 email from Powys County Council 15Jul15
  16. 1 2 "Bridgend and Ogmore results". Elections. Bridgend County Borough Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  17. ↑ "Caerphilly result". General Election 2015 - Results for Caerphilly constituency. Caerphilly County Borough Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  18. ↑ "Cardiff Central result". Election results for Cardiff Central. City of Cardiff Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  19. ↑ "Cardiff North result". Election results for Cardiff North. City of Cardiff Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  20. ↑ "Cardiff South and Penarth result". Election results for Cardiff South and Penarth. City of Cardiff Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  21. ↑ "Cardiff West result". Election results for Cardiff West. City of Cardiff Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  22. ↑ "Carmarthen East result". The Newsroom. Carmarthenshire County Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  23. ↑ rejected ballots 61 email from Carmarthenshire County Council 27Jul15
  24. ↑ email from Pembrokeshire County Council 14Jul15
  25. 1 2 "Pembrokeshire results". Election Results. Pembrokeshire County Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  26. ↑ "Ceredigion result". UK Parliamentary General Election 2015. Ceredigion County Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  27. ↑ "Clwyd South result" (PDF). DECLARATION OF RESULT OF POLL. Wrexham County Borough Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  28. ↑ "Clwyd West result" (PDF). DECLARATION OF RESULT OF POLL. Conwy County Borough Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  29. 1 2 3 "Rhondda Cynon Taf". Parliamentary General Elections 2015. Rhondda Cynon Taf County Borough Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  30. ↑ "Delyn result". Election Results For Delyn. Flintshire County Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  31. ↑ rejected ballots 65 email from Gwynedd Council 3Jun15
  32. 1 2 3 "Swansea results". Results - UK Parliamentary general election 2015. City and County of Swansea. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  33. ↑ "Islwyn result". General Election 2015 - Results for Islwyn constituency. Caerphilly County Borough Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  34. ↑ "Llanelli result". The Newsroom. Carmarthenshire County Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  35. ↑ rejected ballots 40 email from Carmarthenshire County Council 27Jul15
  36. ↑ "Merthyr result". Election results for Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney. Merthyr Tydfil County Borough Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  37. ↑ "Monmouth result" (PDF). Declaration of Result of Poll. Monmouthshire County Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  38. ↑ rejected ballots 54 email from Powys County Council 15Jul15
  39. 1 2 "Newport results". General Election 7 May 2015. Newport City Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  40. ↑ rejected ballots 70 email from Newport City Council 4Sep15
  41. ↑ rejected ballots 76 email from Newport City Council 4Sep15
  42. ↑ email from Bridgend County Borough Council 29Jun15
  43. ↑ email from Pembrokeshire County Council 14Jul15
  44. ↑ "Torfaen result" (PDF). DECLARATION OF RESULT OF POLL. Torfaen County Borough Council. Retrieved 20 September 2015.
  45. ↑ "Vale of Clwyd result". Election results for Vale of Clwyd. Denbighshire County Council. Retrieved 20 September 2015.
  46. ↑ "Vale of Glamorgan result" (PDF). Statement of Results. Vale of Glamorgan Council. Retrieved 20 September 2015.
  47. ↑ "Wrexham result" (PDF). DECLARATION OF RESULT OF POLL. Wrexham County Borough Council. Retrieved 20 September 2015.
  48. ↑ "Election results for Ynys Môn". Election results for Ynys Môn. Isle of Anglesey Count Council. Retrieved 16 September 2015.
  49. ↑ "Formal Result for Ynys Môn" (PDF). Declaration of Result of Poll. Isle of Anglesey County Council. Retrieved 16 September 2015.
  50. ↑ "Co-op Party MPs". Members of Parliament. The Co-operative Party. Retrieved 6 September 2015.
  51. ↑ "Swansea Persons Nominated". Notices (UK parliamentary general election 2015). City and County of Swansea. Retrieved 6 September 2015.
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