Opinion polling for the Spanish general election, 2016

In the run up to the Spanish general election of 2016, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Spain. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous general election, held on 20 December 2015, to the present day. The next general election will be held on 26 June 2016.

Vote estimations

Graphical summary

Poll results

Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty.

Color key:

      Multi-scenario poll

Polling Firm/Link	Last Date of Polling								Margin of Error	Sample Size	Lead
NC Report	April 30, 2016	30.1	20.7	24.5	15.3	2.0	1.5	1.3	±2.2 pp	2,000	5.6
GAD3	April 29, 2016	29.7	23.2	20.9	14.0	2.2	1.8	1.3	±3.5 pp	800	6.5
Metroscopia	April 28, 2016	29.0	20.3	22.3	16.9				±2.9 pp	1,200	6.7
NC Report	April 23, 2016	30.2	20.9	24.1	15.5	2.3	1.6	1.2	±2.2 pp	2,000	6.1
Jaime Miquel & Asociados	April 22, 2016	27.8	20.0	25.2	16.5	2.3	2.3	1.3			2.6
Sigma Dos	April 22, 2016	29.8	22.9	21.5	15.2	2.6	1.9	1.1	±3.5 pp	800	6.9
NC Report	April 16, 2016	30.1	21.0	23.7	15.6	2.3	1.6	1.2	±2.0 pp	2,400	6.4
NC Report	April 9, 2016	30.0	21.4	23.1	15.8	2.4	1.6	1.3	±2.1 pp	2,300	4.9
Metroscopia	April 6, 2016	29.0	20.1	20.8	17.7				±2.9 pp	1,200	8.2
Redondo & Asociados	April 4, 2016	29.1	21.8	24.0	15.7	2.4	1.7	1.3	±3.1 pp	1,000	5.1
NC Report	April 2, 2016	29.8	22.1	22.1	15.8	2.5	1.7	1.3	±2.4 pp	1,800	7.7
NC Report	March 26, 2016	29.8	22.4	22.3	15.5	2.5	1.8	1.3	±3.3 pp	900	7.4
Redondo & Asociados	January 25, 2016	29.8	19.4	25.6	10.3				±0.9 pp	13,000	4.2
IMOP	January 11, 2016	31.4	23.5	22.9	11.8	2.3	1.8	1.2	±3.1 pp	1,000	7.9

Polling Firm/Link	Last Date of Polling									Margin of Error	Sample Size	Lead
NC Report	April 30, 2016	29.9	20.4	20.9	15.0	5.0				±2.2 pp	2,000	9.0
GAD3	April 29, 2016	29.3	22.6	17.0	13.9	5.3	2.1	1.8	1.3	±3.5 pp	800	6.7
Metroscopia	April 28, 2016	29.0	20.3	18.1	16.9	6.6				±2.9 pp	1,200	8.7
Invymark	April 25, 2016	28.7	19.4	20.7	15.4	4.8				±2.8 pp	1,200	8.0
NC Report	April 23, 2016	29.9	20.5	21.2	15.2	4.6				±2.2 pp	2,000	8.7
Netquest^[C]	April 22, 2016	29.1	19.2	19.9	16.1	7.5				±3.1 pp	1,000	9.2
Netquest^[SS]	April 22, 2016	30.9	20.0	19.9	15.8	7.0				±3.1 pp	1,000	10.9
Netquest^[D]	April 22, 2016	26.2	18.3	20.2	17.8	7.9				±3.1 pp	1,000	6.0
Netquest^[RS]	April 22, 2016	27.0	20.6	20.0	17.9	7.3				±3.1 pp	1,000	6.4
Netquest	April 22, 2016	27.3	20.2	18.7	17.0	5.8				±3.1 pp	1,000	7.1
Sigma Dos	April 22, 2016	29.5	22.2	18.6	14.7	4.5	2.6	1.9	1.1	±3.5 pp	800	7.3
Encuestamos	April 20, 2016	30.3	23.0	19.4	14.2	4.4	2.6	2.2	1.1	±2.2 pp	2,000	7.3
NC Report	April 16, 2016	29.8	20.7	20.9	15.4	4.5	2.2	1.5	1.2	±2.0 pp	2,400	8.9
TNS Demoscopia	April 14, 2016	29.4	22.3	17.5	15.8	6.0				±3.1 pp	1,000	7.1
NC Report	April 14, 2016	30.7	21.2	21.9	14.5	4.9				±3.3 pp	955	8.8
Jaime Miquel & Asociados	April 13, 2016	27.9	19.8	20.9	17.0	3.6	2.4	2.4	1.3			7.0
Simple Lógica	April 12, 2016	28.3	20.6	16.9	17.7	6.9				±3.1 pp	1,047	7.7
Invymark	April 11, 2016	28.6	20.4	19.2	15.8	5.4						8.2
IMOP	April 10, 2016	28.8	22.2	15.6	16.6	7.5	2.2	1.7	1.1	±3.0 pp	1,037	6.6
Advice Strategic	April 10, 2016	29.1	21.7	17.4	16.0	5.5	2.3	2.0	1.2	±2.0 pp	2,500	7.4
CIS	April 10, 2016	27.4	21.6	17.7	15.6	5.4	2.5	1.9	1.0	±2.0 pp	2,490	5.8
NC Report	April 9, 2016	29.6	21.0	20.4	15.5	4.4	2.3	1.5	1.3	±2.1 pp	2,300	8.6
GAD3	April 7, 2016	29.2	23.3	15.5	14.4	6.7	2.3	2.0	1.1	±3.5 pp	800	5.9
Metroscopia	April 6, 2016	29.0	20.1	17.0	17.7	6.7				±2.9 pp	1,200	8.9
DYM	April 6, 2016	29.2	20.7	19.6	15.2	5.9				±3.2 pp	1,036	8.5
Celeste-Tel^[CV]	April 5, 2016	28.8	22.0	19.2	15.7	4.5	2.7	1.8	1.1	±3.1 pp	1,100	6.8
Redondo & Asociados	April 4, 2016	29.1	21.8	19.1	15.7	4.9	2.4	1.7	1.3	±3.1 pp	1,000	7.3
NC Report	April 2, 2016	29.4	21.8	19.2	15.5	4.6	2.4	1.6	1.3	±2.4 pp	1,800	7.6
Sigma Dos	March 31, 2016	30.2	22.0	16.7	16.2	4.5	2.3	2.1	1.1	±3.5 pp	800	8.2
Metroscopia	March 30, 2016	27.7	21.0	15.9	18.8	6.9				±2.9 pp	1,200	6.7
Netquest	March 30, 2016	27.5	19.3	17.3	16.9	7.3				±3.1 pp	1,002	8.2
Invymark	March 28, 2016	28.6	21.6	19.9	15.2	4.1				±2.8 pp	1,200	7.0
NC Report	March 26, 2016	29.4	22.0	19.4	15.3	4.6	2.4	1.7	1.3	±3.3 pp	900	7.4
Encuestamos	March 20, 2016	30.1	23.2	19.6	14.2	4.1	2.6	2.2	1.2	±2.2 pp	2,000	6.9
NC Report	March 17, 2016	29.3	22.1	19.5	15.1	4.4	2.3	1.8	1.2	±3.1 pp	1,000	7.2
My Word	March 14, 2016	27.0	20.9	15.9	18.0	7.1				±3.1 pp	1,004	6.1
NC Report	March 11, 2016	29.3	22.0	19.8	15.1	4.4	2.4	1.8	1.2	±2.0 pp	2,300	7.3
GAD3	March 10, 2016	28.2	24.2	18.7	14.1	3.2	2.9	1.8	1.2	±3.5 pp	800	4.0
Metroscopia	March 9, 2016	26.0	23.1	16.8	19.5	5.4				±2.9 pp	1,200	2.9
Sondaxe	March 9, 2016	28.6	22.0	19.1	15.6	4.2	2.5	2.1	1.2	±3.1 pp	1,000	6.6
Simple Lógica	March 9, 2016	26.2	21.6	18.3	17.1	7.9				±2.9 pp	1,206	4.6
GESOP	March 8, 2016	26.4	21.9	18.1	17.8	5.9	2.4	1.5		±3.1 pp	1,000	4.5
Invymark	March 7, 2016	28.5	20.8	21.5	14.3	4.3						7.0
Celeste-Tel^[CV]	March 5, 2016	28.3	22.4	19.4	15.6	4.6	2.5	1.9	1.1	±3.1 pp	1,100	5.9
NC Report	March 4, 2016	29.2	21.8	20.2	14.9	4.2	2.4	1.9	1.2	±2.7 pp	1,400	7.4
Jaime Miquel & Asociados	March 3, 2016	26.5	20.2	20.9	16.9	3.3	2.6	2.4	1.3			5.6
DYM	February 23, 2016	25.6	22.1	19.8	17.6	5.4				±3.1 pp	1,071	3.5
Invymark	February 22, 2016	26.8	20.3	22.1	15.8	4.5				±2.8 pp	1,200	4.7
NC Report	February 18, 2016	28.9	21.4	21.1	14.2	3.4	2.5	2.0	1.2	±2.7 pp	1,400	7.5
Sigma Dos	February 18, 2016	27.8	23.1	18.8	15.3	4.0	2.4	2.1	1.1	±3.2 pp	1,000	4.7
Encuestamos	February 17, 2016	27.7	24.2	20.5	13.9	3.4	2.5	2.1	1.1	±2.3 pp	1,800	3.5
GIPEyOP	February 16, 2016	27.1	22.3	22.3	14.9	3.2	2.4	2.4	1.2	±2.2 pp	1,960	4.8
Invymark	February 15, 2016	26.4	21.8	20.7	16.2	4.2						4.6
GAD3	February 11, 2016	27.9	20.8	21.4	14.9	3.3	2.6	1.9	1.4	±3.5 pp	800	6.5
Jaime Miquel & Asociados	February 7, 2016	27.8	20.4	21.2	14.9	3.8	2.6	2.3	1.2			6.6
Simple Lógica	February 5, 2016	26.9	21.7	20.3	18.9	5.1				±3.1 pp	1,048	5.2
Celeste-Tel^[CV]	February 5, 2016	28.3	22.2	20.2	15.0	3.6	2.6	2.0	1.2	±3.1 pp	1,100	6.1
Metroscopia	February 4, 2016	24.0	23.3	19.9	18.5	4.3				±3.2 pp	1,000	0.7
Invymark	February 1, 2016	27.8	21.1	21.6	15.1	3.8						6.2
GAD3	January 21, 2016	30.1	21.3	20.0	13.4	2.9	2.4	2.1	1.1	±3.5 pp	802	8.8
NC Report	January 21, 2016	30.7	21.1	21.9	12.0	3.4	2.4	2.2	1.2	±2.3 pp	1,900	8.8
My Word	January 19, 2016	28.0	21.3	20.3	14.4	4.7				±3.1 pp	1,000	6.7
Redondo & Asociados	January 16, 2016	30.5	20.7	22.8	10.9							7.7
Celeste-Tel^[CV]	January 15, 2016	29.9	21.7	21.9	12.5	3.3	2.5	2.1	1.1	±3.1 pp	1,100	8.0
NC Report	January 15, 2016	30.5	22.1	20.7	13.4	3.6				±3.3 pp	955	8.4
Encuestamos	January 15, 2016	33.2	22.2	21.4	10.9	2.9	2.5	2.0	1.1	±2.3 pp	1,800	11.0
Metroscopia	January 14, 2016	29.0	21.1	22.5	16.6	3.2				±2.9 pp	1,200	6.5
Estudio de Sociología Consultores	January 14, 2016	32.4	22.4	20.5	13.2	3.9				±2.1 pp	2,200	10.0
Simple Lógica	January 12, 2016	30.0	20.4	21.3	14.7	4.8				±3.1 pp	1,050	8.7
IMOP	January 11, 2016	31.4	23.5	19.5	11.8	3.4	2.3	1.8	1.2	±3.1 pp	1,000	7.9
CIS	January 11, 2016	28.8	20.5	21.9	13.3	3.7	2.8	1.7	1.3	±2.0 pp	2,496	6.9
Invymark	January 11, 2016	30.8	20.8	21.6	12.6	3.5						9.2
General Election	December 20, 2015	28.7	22.0	20.7	13.9	3.7	2.4	2.2	1.2			6.7

Notes

^C Identifies multi-scenario opinion polls which hypothesize on Cristina Cifuentes as PP candidate, with all other parties' candidates unchanged from the 2015 general election.

^SS Identifies multi-scenario opinion polls which hypothesize on Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría as PP candidate, with all other parties' candidates unchanged from the 2015 general election.

^D Identifies multi-scenario opinion polls which hypothesize on Susana Díaz as PSOE candidate, with all other parties' candidates unchanged from the 2015 general election.

^RS Identifies multi-scenario opinion polls which hypothesize on Mariano Rajoy as PP candidate and Pedro Sánchez as PSOE candidate, with all other parties' candidates unchanged from the 2015 general election.

^CV Identifies polling firms that explicitly show their top-line results projected over "candidacy votes", that is, votes going for political parties, excluding blank ballots. This is in contrast to "valid votes", which is the most frequent method of vote projection by opinion pollsters and which do account for blank ballots. In order to obtain data comparable to both the official results projected over "valid votes" as well as projections from other pollsters, a rule of three is applied, considering a comparison between 2011 election results calculated both over "candidacy" and "valid votes". The results of such calculation are shown instead.

Parliamentary seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 176 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Congress of Deputies.

176 seats needed for a majority

Polling Firm/Link	Last Date of Polling
NC Report	April 30, 2016	126/130	80/83	75/82	39/44	8	6	6
GAD3	April 29, 2016	125	94	68	39	8	7	6
NC Report	April 23, 2016	125/130	80/83	74/81	40/45	8	6	6
Jaime Miquel & Asociados	April 22, 2016	110	72	92	51	8	9	5
Sigma Dos	April 22, 2016	123	90	70	44	9	6	5
NC Report	April 16, 2016	126/130	83/85	70/76	42/47	8/9	5/6	6/7
CIS	April 10, 2016	115	87	81	45	9	6	4
Redondo & Asociados	April 4, 2016	125	84	78	38	9	7	6
Redondo & Asociados	January 25, 2016	131	74	101	18	9	8	6
IMOP	January 11, 2016	128	93	78	26	9	7	6

176 seats needed for a majority

Polling Firm/Link	Last Date of Polling
NC Report	April 30, 2016	127/132	82/85	67/70	41/45	4/6
GAD3	April 29, 2016	129	95	50	41	8	8	8	6
NC Report	April 23, 2016	127/132	82/85	68/71	41/46	3/5
Sigma Dos	April 22, 2016	126	91	58	45	6	9	6	6
Encuestamos	April 20, 2016	131/135	92/94	60/63	40/42	3/5	9/10	7/8	5/6
NC Report	April 16, 2016	128/131	83/85	67/71	42/47	3/5	8	6	6
Jaime Miquel & Asociados	April 13, 2016	115	77	69	60	2	9	9	6
IMOP	April 10, 2016	123	90	48	53	12	9	6	6
CIS	April 10, 2016	119	90	56	52	8	9	7	6
NC Report	April 9, 2016	127/129	84/86	64/69	43/48	2/4	8/9	6/7	6
GAD3	April 7, 2016	127	95	46	45	11	9	8	6
Celeste-Tel	April 5, 2016	123/125	89/90	61/66	44/47	3/5	9/10	7	5/6
Redondo & Asociados	April 4, 2016	126	87	61	47	4	9	7	6
NC Report	April 2, 2016	126/128	86/88	62/64	44/49	2/4	9	7	6
Sigma Dos	March 31, 2016	128	90	49	52	6	8	7	6
NC Report	March 26, 2016	126/128	87/89	63/65	43/48	2/4	9	7	6
Encuestamos	March 20, 2016	128/131	93/95	61/64	40/42	2/4	9/10	7/8	6/7
NC Report	March 17, 2016	124/128	87/90	62/66	44/48	2/4	9	7	6
NC Report	March 11, 2016	126/128	87/90	63/67	42/47	2/4	9	7	6
GAD3	March 10, 2016	123	98	60	42	1	10	7	6
Sondaxe	March 9, 2016	124	89	60	48	4	8	8	6
GESOP	March 8, 2016	107/110	88/91	58/61	59/62	7/9	9/10	6/7
Celeste-Tel	March 5, 2016	120/124	91/94	63/67	42/45	3/5	9	7	5
NC Report	March 4, 2016	125/128	87/90	64/67	42/46	2/4	9	7/8	6
Jaime Miquel & Asociados	March 3, 2016	112	78	69	61	1	9	9	6
NC Report	February 18, 2016	125/127	87/89	68/72	41/42	1/2	9	7/8	6
Sigma Dos	February 18, 2016	119	93	60	50	3	9	7	6
Encuestamos	February 17, 2016	117/119	98/100	66/68	38/40	1/2	9/10	7/8	6
GAD3	February 11, 2016	119	84	75	44	1	10	8	6
Jaime Miquel & Asociados	February 7, 2016	118	84	75	44	2	9	9	6
Celeste-Tel	February 5, 2016	120/124	89/92	65/69	41/46	2	9/10	7/8	5/6
GAD3	January 21, 2016	131	89	65	38	1	9	8	5
NC Report	January 21, 2016	130/132	86/88	70/73	30/33	1/2	9	7/8	6
Redondo & Asociados	January 16, 2016	133	79	82	31
Celeste-Tel	January 15, 2016	128/130	87/90	68/72	33/35	2	9/10	7/8	5/6
Encuestamos	January 15, 2016	140/145	90/92	74/76	17/21	1	10/11	5/7	5/6
Estudio de Sociología Consultores	January 14, 2016	137	90	65	30	2
IMOP	January 11, 2016	136	96	63	29	1	9	7	6
CIS^[LV]	January 11, 2016	123	83	79	37	2	11	7	6
Redondo & Asociados	January 4, 2016	130	80	78	30
General Election	December 20, 2015	123	90	69	40	2	9	8	6

Notes

^LV Identifies seat projections done by La Vanguardia over a poll's vote estimations.

Leadership polls

Rating scale

Poll results showing party leaders' popularity are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. Values are shown in a 0 to 10 scale, with 10 indicating the most positively valued and 0 being the most negatively valued. Values are shaded in a string of colors ranging from dark red to dark green, in accordance with the value awarded to the leader (the color legend is also shown below).

Color legend

0.00– 2.49	2.50– 2.99	3.00– 3.49	3.50– 3.99	4.00– 4.49	4.50– 4.99	5.00– 5.49	5.50– 5.99	6.00– 6.49	6.50– 6.99	7.00– 7.49	7.50– 10.00

Polling Firm/Link	Last Date of Polling						Margin of Error	Sample Size
Sigma Dos	April 22, 2016	3.84	4.08	3.55	4.49	4.23	±3.5 pp	800
Encuestamos	April 20, 2016	2.5	4.2	4.2	3.9	4.1	±2.2 pp	2,000
IMOP	April 10, 2016	3.5	4.8	3.8	5.3	5.0	±3.0 pp	1,037
CIS	April 10, 2016	2.89	3.74	3.16	3.99	4.69	±2.0 pp	2,490
Sigma Dos	March 31, 2016	4.03	4.42	3.46	4.77	4.31	±3.5 pp	800
Encuestamos	March 20, 2016	1.9	4.5	4.2	4.0	4.5	±2.2 pp	2,000
CIS	March 19, 2016	3.43	4.19	4.06	4.55	5.23	±1.3 pp	6,242
NC Report	March 17, 2016	3.3	3.5	3.4	3.7	N/A	±3.1 pp	1,000
Sondaxe	March 9, 2016	3.56	4.17	3.44	4.71	4.72	±3.1 pp	1,000
GESOP	March 8, 2016	3.43	4.52	3.64	5.11	5.04	±3.1 pp	1,000
Sigma Dos	February 18, 2016	3.80	4.38	3.78	5.02	4.81	±3.2 pp	1,000
Encuestamos	February 17, 2016	2.2	4.5	4.3	4.1	4.4	±2.3 pp	1,800
GAD3	February 11, 2016	3.7	3.7	3.4	4.4	N/A	±3.5 pp	800
Invymark	February 1, 2016	3.72	4.16	3.67	4.43	4.16
Encuestamos	January 15, 2016	2.4	4.4	4.3	3.4	4.2	±2.3 pp	1,800
CIS	January 11, 2016	3.08	3.75	3.78	3.92	4.68	±2.0 pp	2,496
Invymark	January 11, 2016	3.72	3.99	3.80	4.09	4.18

Preferred Prime Minister

Poll results showing public opinion on who would make the best Prime Minister are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.

Polling Firm/Link	Last Date of Polling							Margin of Error	Sample Size
IMOP	April 10, 2016	23.4	27.1	11.9	21.9	12.3	3.4	±3.0 pp	1,037
GESOP	March 8, 2016	20.5	22.6	12.7	18.9	11.0	14.3	±3.1 pp	1,000
Invymark	December 21, 2015	27.0	20.3	26.3	12.8	N/A	13.6

Prime Minister likelihood

The following table shows opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become new Prime Minister.

Polling Firm/Link	Last Date of Polling					Other	None		Margin of Error	Sample Size
GAD3	April 29, 2016	32.7	17.5	1.1	2.9	2.8	7.5	34.3	±3.5 pp	800
GAD3	April 7, 2016	26.8	33.2	2.2	2.8	3.1	7.2	24.8	±3.5 pp	800
Encuestamos	March 20, 2016	28.5	36.1	13.1	6.0	16.3	N/A	N/A	±2.2 pp	2,000
GAD3	March 10, 2016	25.3	28.8	2.9	3.7	5.3	12.0	22.0	±3.5 pp	800
Encuestamos	February 17, 2016	9.2	49.9	4.1	2.8	2.7	31.3	N/A	±2.3 pp	1,800
GAD3	February 11, 2016	21.1	40.0	3.1	2.4	3.3	8.8	21.2	±3.5 pp	800
GAD3	January 21, 2016	32.5	31.7	4.4	3.2	3.4	6.9	17.9	±3.5 pp	800

Likelihood of victory

The following table shows opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a general election taking place.

Polling Firm/Link	Last Date of Polling					Margin of Error	Sample Size
GAD3	April 29, 2016	71.4	9.2	3.6	4.7	±3.5 pp	800
GAD3	April 7, 2016	68.6	13.0	4.4	4.3	±3.5 pp	800
GAD3	March 10, 2016	68.4	12.2	6.6	2.7	±3.5 pp	800
GAD3	February 11, 2016	65.2	12.9	7.0	2.5	±3.5 pp	800
GAD3	January 21, 2016	68.8	9.2	7.7	3.3	±3.5 pp	802

External links

• Metroscopia
• Celeste-Tel
• GESOP
• NC Report
• Simple Lógica