Polish parliamentary election, 2005

Polish parliamentary election, 2005
Poland
25 September 2005
All 460 seats in the Sejm
231 seats were needed for a majority in the Sejm
All 100 seats in the Senate
Turnout 40.57%
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Jarosław Kaczyński Donald Tusk Andrzej Lepper
Party PiS PO SRP
Leader since 18 January 2003 1 June 2003 10 January 1992
Leader's seat 19 – Warsaw I 25 – Gdansk 40 – Koszalin
Last election 44 seats, 9.5% 65 seats, 12.7% 53 seats, 10.2%
Seats won 155 133 56
Seat change Increase 111 Increase 68 Increase 3
Popular vote 3,185,714 2,849,269 1,347,355
Percentage 27.0% 24.1% 11.4%
Swing Increase 17.5% Increase 11.4% Increase 1.2%
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Wojciech Olejniczak Roman Giertych Waldemar Pawlak
Party SLD LPR PSL
Leader since 29 May 2005 21 April 2001 29 January 2005
Leader's seat 11 – Sieradz 19 – Warsaw I 16 – Płock
Last election 216 seats, 41% 38 seats, 7.9% 42 seats, 9%
Seats won 55 34 25
Seat change Decrease 161 Decrease 4 Decrease 17
Popular vote 1,335,257 940,762 821,656
Percentage 11.3% 8.0% 7.0%
Swing Decrease 29.7% Increase 0.1% Decrease 2%
  Seventh party
 
Leader Henryk Kroll
Party MN
Leader since 27 October 1991
Leader's seat 21 – Opole
Last election 2 seats, 0.4%
Seats won 2
Seat change Steady
Popular vote 34,469
Percentage 0.3%
Swing Decrease 0.1%

Powiats won by

■ – Civic Platform ■ – Law and Justice
■ – Polish People's Party ■ – Democratic Left Alliance
■ – Self-Defense ■ – German Minority

Prime Minister before election

Marek Belka
demokraci.pl

 New Prime Minister

Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz
PiS

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Parliamentary elections were held in Poland on 25 September 2005.[1] Thirty million voters were eligible to vote for all 460 members of the lower house, the Sejm and all 100 members of the upper house, the Senate.

The election resulted in a sweeping victory for two parties of the centre-right, the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) and the liberal-conservative Civic Platform (PO). The incumbent center-left government of the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) was soundly defeated in a landslide. The two victorious parties won 288 out of the 460 seats, while the SLD was reduced to 55 seats. The PiS won 155 seats, while PO obtained 133. PiS leader, Jarosław Kaczyński, declined the opportunity to become Prime Minister in order not to prejudice his twin brother Lech Kaczyński's chances for the presidential election held later in October. In his place, Law and Justice instead nominated Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz for the post. The outgoing Prime Minister, Marek Belka, lost his seat.

In the Senate, PiS won 49 seats and PO 34 of the 100 seats, leaving eight other parties with the remaining 17 seats. The SLD won no seats in the Senate.

Background

The 2005 Sejm was elected by proportional representation from multi-member constituencies, with seats divided among parties which gain more than five percent of the votes using the d'Hondt method. On the other hand, the Senate is elected under first-past-the-post bloc voting. This tends to cause the party or coalition which wins the elections to have a larger majority in the Senate than in the Sejm.

In the 2001 elections the SLD and UP won 216 of the 460 seats, and were able to form a government with the support of the Polish People's Party (PSL). The former ruling party, Solidarity Electoral Action (AWS) based on the Solidarity trade union, lost all its seats. In its place several new right-wing parties emerged, such as the PO and the PiS.

After 2003 a variety of factors combined to bring about a collapse of support for the government. Discontent with high unemployment, government spending cuts (especially on health, education and welfare), affairs related to privatizations was compounded by a series of corruption scandals, leading to the resignation of the Prime Minister Leszek Miller in May 2004, who was succeeded by Marek Belka. All opinion polls suggested that the governing parties would be heavily defeated at these elections and that the right-wing parties would win a large majority. With the expected downfall of the post-communists, the right-wing parties competed mainly against each other.

Contestants

The parties running in this election were mainly the same as in 2001, with the addition of Social Democracy of Poland (a splinter group from the Democratic Left Alliance), and the Democratic Party formed from the Freedom Union (UW) and some SLD dissidents. Both these new parties failed to win seats.

The BBC commented on election day: "The two centre-right parties are both rooted in the anti-communist Solidarity movement but differ on issues such as the budget and taxation. Law and Justice, whose agenda includes tax breaks and state aid for the poor, has pledged to uphold traditional family and Christian values. It is suspicious of economic liberalism. The Citizens Platform strongly promotes free market forces and wants to introduce a flat 15% rate for income tax, corporation tax and VAT. It also promises to move faster on deregulation and privatisation, in order to adopt the euro as soon as possible."

Opinion polls

In the run up to the election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. The poll results are listed in the table below.

Date Polling firm SLD UP SDPL PO PiS PSL SRP LPR PD Others Lead
25 September 2005 Election results 11.3% 3.9% 24.1% 27% 7% 11.4% 8% 2.5% 4.9% 2.9% over PO
25 September TNS OBOP/PBS 11.2% 3.2% 24.1% 27.8% 5.9% 10.4% 10.4% 2.7% 4.3% 3.7% over PO
Exit polls
21-22 September TNS OBOP 7.6% 1.7% 28.7% 33% 5.3% 10.3% 8.3% 2.3% 2.8% 4.3% over PO
21 September PBS 7% 3% 32% 30% 4% 12% 8% 2% 2% 2% over PiS
20-21 September PGB 8% 3% 29% 29% 5% 10% 11% 3% 2% Tie
15-18 September PGB 6% 4% 33% 27% 4% 10% 11% 3% 2% 6% over PiS
14-18 September CBOS 6% 2% 33% 27% 5% 12% 9% 2% 5% 6% over PiS
16-17 September PBS 7% 3% 32% 27% 4% 12% 10% 3% 2% 5% over PiS
10-13 September PGB 11% 5% 28% 21% 5% 12% 12% 3% 3% 7% over PiS
8-12 September TNS OBOP 9% 5% 36% 23% 4% 7% 8% 2% 6% 13% over PiS
9-10 September PBS 10% 3% 35% 22% 4% 10% 9% 2% 5% 13% over PiS
2-6 September PGB 10% 4% 28% 21% 4% 11% 14% 4% 4% 7% over PiS
3-4 September PBS 11% 3% 38% 23% 4% 8% 7% 2% 4% 15% over PiS
26-29 August PGB 11% 4% 24% 23% 6% 10% 15% 4% 3% 1% over PiS
25-29 August TNS OBOP 9% 3% 29% 20% 5% 10% 11% 1% 12% 9% over PiS
19-21 August PBS 10% 4% 27% 25% 4% 11% 10% 3% 6% 2% over PiS
12-15 August PGB 8% 6% 24% 20% 6% 18% 13% 1% 4% 4% over PiS
4-9 August Ipsos 12% 4% 21% 27% 5% 15% 10% 1% 5% 6% over PO
5-8 August CBOS 8% 3% 23% 22% 7% 16% 11% 3% 7% 1% over PiS
4-8 August TNS OBOP 8% 6% 27% 23% 4% 8% 8% 3% 14% 4% over PiS
5-7 August PBS 7% 4% 25% 22% 4% 16% 11% 3% 8% 3% over PiS
22-25 July PGB 7% 5% 24% 24% 6% 17% 12% 2% 3% Tie
15-17 July PBS 12% 7% 21% 25% 4% 13% 9% 2% 7% 4% over PO
14-17 July GfK Polonia 10% 5% 18% 20% 6% 17% 9% 3% 12% 2% over PO
8-11 July PGB 7% 7% 21% 23% 6% 14% 13% 2% 7% 2% over PO
1-4 July TNS OBOP 8% 4% 21% 23% 7% 18% 8% 3% 8% 2% over PO
1-4 July CBOS 8% 5% 21% 26% 4% 14% 10% 2% 10% 5% over PO
2-3 July PBS 8% 3% 22% 25% 4% 17% 11% 3% 7% 3% over PO
29 June-5 July GfK Polonia 11% 3% 18% 21% 6% 15% 13% - 13% 3% over PO
24-27 June PGB 6% 9% 23% 23% 6% 12% 15% 2% 4% Tie
18-19 June PBS 7% 6% 25% 23% 4% 15% 12% 3% 5% 2% over PiS
8-15 June Pentor 4% 7% 25% 18% 4% 17% 12% 4% 9% 7% over PiS
10-13 June PGB 5% 10% 19% 22% 4% 14% 14% 2% 10% 3% over PO
3-6 June CBOS 6% 7% 20% 23% 7% 13% 14% 4% 7% 3% over PO
2-6 June TNS OBOP 6% 7% 26% 18% 3% 13% 12% 3% 13% 8% over PiS
4-5 June PBS 9% 3% 4% 21% 22% 4% 12% 11% 4% 10% 1% over PO
2-5 June GfK Polonia 7% 4% 4% 20% 22% 4% 15% 10% 4% 10% 2% over PO
27-30 May PGB 7% 1% 8% 20% 18% 6% 11% 16% 3% 9% 2% over PiS
21-22 May PBS 8% 4% 5% 18% 19% 4% 16% 11% 4% 11% 1% over PO
13-16 May PGB 6% 2% 7% 21% 20% 5% 13% 14% 3% 9% 1% over PiS
6-9 May CBOS 7% 3% 6% 25% 20% 5% 14% 8% 3% 9% 5% over PiS
5-9 May TNS OBOP 3% 1% 9% 24% 20% 8% 12% 9% 4% 11% 4% over PiS
7-8 May PBS 6.5% 2.3% 3.6% 21.6% 22% 6.4% 14.5% 11% 3.9% 8.2% 0.4% over PO
28-30 April PGB 6% 1% 6% 21% 21% 5% 13% 16% 3% 9% Tie
15-18 April PGB 6% 1% 8% 20% 18% 7% 13% 14% 5% 8% 2% over PiS
12-17 April TNS OBOP 3% 2% 4% 26% 20% 6% 10% 14% 3% 12% 6% over PiS
9-14 April Ipsos 7% 1% 3% 19% 20% 8% 16% 11% 7% 8% 1% over PO
13 April Pentor 4% - 4% 22% 25% 5% 13% 13% 4% 10% 3% over PO
1-2/9-10 April CBOS 4% 3% 5% 20% 24% 4% 14% 10% 4% 13% 4% over PO
2-4 April PBS 6% 3% 3% 24% 17% 4% 17% 12% 5% 9% 7% over PiS/SRP
19-22 March PGB 8% 1% 5% 23% 15% 4% 16% 15% 4% 9% 7% over SRP
10-13 March PGB 7% 2% 6% 25% 15% 5% 13% 15% 5% 7% 10% over PiS/LPR
March 2005 PBS 7% - 3% 22% 14% 5% 17% 15% 6% 11% 5% over SRP
4-8 March TNS OBOP 9% 1% 5% 23% 12% 9% 16% 10% 6% 9% 7% over SRP
4-7 March CBOS 6% 3% 3% 22% 16% 8% 14% 11% 5% 12% 6% over PiS
5-6 March Pentor 5% 1% 5% 28% 14% 4% 18% 10% 6% 9% 10% over SRP
23-26 February PGB 7% 2% 8% 25% 17% 5% 12% 13% 5% 6% 8% over PiS
10-15 February Ipsos 8% 1% 6% 24% 22% 6% 15% 8% 9% 1% 2% over PiS
4-8 February TNS OBOP 7% 1% 7% 23% 15% 7% 14% 11% 4% 6% 8% over PiS
4-7 February CBOS 6% 4% 4% 25% 15% 7% 12% 13% 5% 9% 10% over PiS
22-26 January PGB 6% 1% 8% 22% 15% 6% 12% 13% 4% 13% 7% over PiS
7-10 January CBOS 6% 3% 6% 26% 18% 7% 11% 12% 3% 8% 8% over PiS
6-10 January TNS OBOP 9% 3% 7% 20% 16% 6% 11% 14% 3% 11% 4% over PiS
8-9 January PBS 11% 4% 4% 25% 14% 6% 14% 12% 4% 6% 11% over PiS/SRP
2005
3-6 December CBOS 5% 2% 4% 27% 18% 6% 12% 11% 3% 12% 9% over PiS
2-5 December TNS OBOP 6% 2% 7% 28% 14% 4% 13% 13% 3% 10% 14% over PiS
20-23 November PGB 6% 1% 7% 25% 16% 7% 12% 12% 4% 7% 9% over PiS
5-8 November CBOS 8% 2% 5% 27% 17% 8% 10% 12% 3% 8% 10% over PiS
6-7 November PBS 10% 5% 5% 28% 13% 6% 12% 13% 4% 4% 15% over PiS/LPR
4-7 November TNS OBOP 7% 2% 6% 29% 12% 5% 10% 13% 6% 9% 16% over LPR
9-10 October Pentor 7% 3% 5% 27% 14% 5% 12% 13% 4% 10% 13% over PiS
1-4 October CBOS 6% 3% 4% 27% 14% 6% 12% 14% 6% 7% 13% over PiS/LPR
6-10 September Ipsos 12% - 3% 27% 14% 5% 14% 13% 6% 6% 13% over PiS/SRP
3-6 September CBOS 9% 4% 7% 25% 15% 5% 10% 13% 3% 9% 10% over PiS
4-5 September PBS 6% 3% 5% 24% 15% 5% 15% 16% 4% 7% 8% over LPR
2-5 September TNS OBOP 9% 2% 6% 19% 12% 6% 14% 15% 3% 14% 4% over LPR
27-31 August PGB 9% 9% 24% 14% 8% 12% 12% 4% 9% 10% over PiS
6-9 August CBOS 7% 3% 7% 25% 16% 6% 10% 12% 4% 10% 9% over PiS
5-8 August TNS OBOP 4% 1% 6% 26% 12% 4% 10% 12% 3% 22% 14% over PiS/LPR
24-27 July PGB 7% 7% 25% 13% 6% 13% 14% 5% 10% 11% over LPR
9-12 July CBOS 5% 2% 4% 29% 14% 6% 13% 16% 5% 6% 13% over LPR
1-4 July TNS OBOP 5% 2% 3% 25% 13% 7% 13% 15% 3% 14% 10% over LPR
June 2004 CBOS 6% 2% 6% 28% 13% 5% 17% 16% 7% 0% 11% over SRP
18-21 June CBOS 7% 4% 4% 28% 10% 7% 13% 16% 3% 9% 12% over LPR
17-20 June TNS OBOP 7% 1% 4% 28% 13% 4% 13% 13% 5% 12% 15% over PiS/SRP/LPR
13 June European Parliament election 9.3% 5.3% 24.1% 12.7% 6.3% 10.8% 15.9% 7.3% 8.2% 8.2% over LPR
6-9 June PGB 7% 6% 26% 13% 5% 19% 12% 4% 9% 7% over SRP
4-8 June Ipsos 7% 9% 24% 19% 7% 17% 12% - 8% 5% over PiS
5-6 June Pentor 7% 5% 25% 11% 6% 23% 12% 4% 7% 2% over SRP
3-6 June TNS OBOP 3% 6% 6% 26% 10% 4% 20% 12% 3% 10% 6% over SRP
May 2004 PBS 8% 6% 26% 17% 4% 21% 10% 3% 5% 5% over SRP
7-10 May CBOS 5% 3% 5% 26% 13% 8% 20% 7% 3% 9% 6% over SRP
8-9 May Pentor 6% 7% 27% 9% 6% 27% 8% 2% 8% Tie
6-9 May TNS OBOP 5% 3% 5% 26% 13% 6% 17% 7% 3% 13% 9% over SRP
May 2004 CBOS 7% - 6% 25% 10% 6% 26% 16% - 4% 1% over PO
2-4 May PGB 5% 9% 24% 13% 5% 19% 13% 2% 9% 5% over SRP
16-18 April PGB 6% 8% 24% 11% 6% 24% 11% 2% 8% Tie
April 2004 Ipsos 7% 11% 23% 15% 4% 25% 11% 3% 1% 2% over PO
2-5 April CBOS 6% 4% 7% 29% 9% 5% 24% 6% 2% 8% 5% over SRP
3-4 April PBS 7% 6% 22% 10% 5% 29% 9% - 12% 7% over PO
3-4 April Pentor 6% 4% 27% 10% 4% 30% 7% - 12% 3% over PO
1-4 April TNS OBOP 4% 2% 10% 33% 7% 5% 24% 5% 2% 8% 9% over SRP
21-23 March PGB 9% Did not exist 27% 11% 7% 24% 11% 3% 8% 3% over SRP
March 2004 CBOS 8% 2% 26% 9% 4% 29% 10% 3% 8% 3% over PO
March 2004 Ipsos 11% 30% 15% 7% 21% 12% - 4% 9% over SRP
5-8 March CBOS 10% 3% 27% 15% 4% 24% 7% 2% 7% 3% over SRP
6-7 March PBS 11% 26% 13% 4% 24% 10% - 12% 2% over SRP
4-7 March TNS OBOP 9% 3% 29% 12% 6% 23% 8% 2% 8% 6% over SRP
27 February-3 March CBOS 11% 3% 29% 10% 7% 23% 9% 1% 7% 6% over SRP
February 2004 CBOS 12% 3% 29% 9% 7% 19% 11% 2% 6% 10% over SRP
11-14 February PGB 10% 35% 12% 6% 17% 12% 3% 5% 18% over SRP
6-9 February CBOS 18% 3% 31% 10% 5% 18% 8% 2% 5% 13% over SLD/SRP
7-8 February Pentor 12% 30% 12% 7% 18% 7% 3% 11% 12% over SRP
5-8 February TNS OBOP 12% 2% 24% 10% 5% 23% 12% 4% 8% 1% over SRP
26-29 January PGB 15% 28% 11% 8% 15% 12% 4% 7% 13% over SLD-UP/SRP
10-12 January TNS OBOP 19% 2% 26% 10% 7% 16% 10% 3% 7% 7% over SLD
9-12 January CBOS 17% 4% 29% 13% 6% 11% 10% 3% 8% 12% over SLD
2004
6-8 December TNS OBOP 16% 2% 20% 13% 8% 16% 9% 3% 13% 4% over SLD/SRP
5-8 December CBOS 17% 4% 26% 12% 6% 13% 8% 3% 10% 9% over SLD
1-2 December PGB 16% 25% 15% 5% 15% 13% 3% 8% 9% over SLD-UP
29 November-2 December CBOS 18% 2% 26% 12% 7% 12% 9% 2% 6% 8% over SLD
12-16 November PGB 17% 19% 17% 6% 15% 15% 4% 7% 2% over SLD-UP/PiS
8-10 November TNS OBOP 20% 3% 21% 11% 9% 13% 11% 3% 9% 1% over SLD
7-10 November CBOS 20% 4% 22% 14% 6% 14% 6% 4% 8.1% 2% over SLD
25-27 October TNS OBOP 18% 6% 20% 12% 7% 13% 11% 3% 10% 2% over SLD
11-13 October TNS OBOP 20% 4% 15% 15% 8% 12% 10% 5% 11% 5% over PO/PiS
4-6 October TNS OBOP 26% 3% 16% 13% 8% 7% 11% 5% 11% 10% over PO
3-6 October CBOS 19% 5% 17% 18% 10% 10% 10% 3% 9% 1% over PiS
6-8 September TNS OBOP 24% 4% 15% 13% 12% 10% 9% 3% 10% 9% over PO
5-8 September CBOS 21% 5% 21% 18% 7% 9% 6% 4% 9% Tie
23-25 August TNS OBOP 25% 4% 16% 11% 9% 10% 12% 4% 9% 9% over PO
9-11 August TNS OBOP 23% 3% 15% 14% 9% 9% 13% 6% 8% 8% over PO
1-4 August CBOS 21% 5% 14% 15% 10% 12% 6% 5% 12% 6% over PiS
5-7 July TNS OBOP 21% 4% 12% 14% 11% 18% 8% 3% 9% 3% over SRP
4-7 July CBOS 25% 6% 12% 12% 9% 10% 9% 4% 12% 13% over PO/PiS
14-16 June TNS OBOP 27% 5% 15% 12% 8% 14% 8% 3% 8% 12% over PO
7-9 June TNS OBOP 22% 5% 15% 18% 6% 13% 9% 3% 9% 4% over PiS
29 May-1 June CBOS 21% 5% 13% 16% 10% 14% 8% 4% 9% 5% over PiS
10-12 May TNS OBOP 25% 2% 14% 15% 9% 14% 8% 4% 9% 10% over PiS
9-12 May CBOS 21% 4% 12% 18% 7% 13% 10% 6% 9% 3% over PiS
5-7 April TNS OBOP 22% 3% 13% 16% 10% 18% 8% 4% 6% 4% over SRP
3-8 April Demoskop 22% 10% 21% 8% 20% 8% 5% 6% 1% over PiS
4-7 April CBOS 24% 3% 14% 10% 9% 17% 9% 4% 9% 7% over SRP
8-10 March TNS OBOP 29% 4% 9% 15% 8% 14% 10% 4% 7% 14% over PiS
6-10 March Demoskop 34% 8% 19% 11% 11% 8% 6% 3% 15% over PiS
8-9 March PBS 29% 11% 13% 7% 18% 10% 3% 9% 11% over SRP
1-4 March CBOS 26% 3% 13% 16% 8% 14% 6% 5% 9% 10% over PiS
8-9 February PBS 31% 11% 13% 7% 16% 11% 4% 7% 15% over SRP
8-9 February TNS OBOP 28% 4% 9% 15% 8% 13% 9% 5% 9% 13% over PiS
1-4 February CBOS 28% 3% 10% 12% 8% 16% 12% 3% 7% 12% over SRP
10-14 January Demoskop 35% 7% 15% 10% 15% 11% 5% 2% 20% over PiS/SRP
10-12 January TNS OBOP 38% 4% 9% 9% 12% 10% 7% 3% 8% 26% over PSL
3-6 January CBOS 30% 5% 11% 13% 9% 11% 8% 5% 8% 17% over PiS
2003
7-9 December TNS OBOP 25% 3% 10% 15% 10% 14% 13% 3% 7% 10% over PiS
29 November-2 December CBOS 33% 2% 10% 12% 11% 12% 10% 3% 7% 21% over PiS/SRP
23-25 November TNS OBOP 27% 3% 8% 14% 10% 15% 12% 2% 9% 12% over SRP
12-14 November TNS OBOP 31% 2% 8% 13% 16% 12% 7% 2% 9% 21% over SRP
8-11 November CBOS 30% 3% 10% 13% 9% 13% 11% 4% 8% 17% over PiS/SRP
27 October 2002 Local elections 24.7% 16% 10.8% 16% 14.4% 2.3% 15.9% 8.7% over PO-PiS coalition
12-14 October TNS OBOP 35% 10% 10% 11% 14% 10% 3% 7% 21% over SRP
11-14 October CBOS 36% 3% 12% 12% 9% 11% 8% 3% 6% 24% over PO/PiS
5-7 October TNS OBOP 32% 14% 13% 10% 14% 9% 4% 4% 18% over PO/SRP
21-23 September TNS OBOP 37% 11% 11% 9% 15% 8% 4% 5% 22% over SRP
7-9 September TNS OBOP 35% 10% 14% 8% 10% 13% 4% 6% 21% over PiS
6-9 September CBOS 34% 5% 10% 12% 8% 14% 7% 2% 8% 20% over SRP
24-26 August TNS OBOP 39% 14% 9% 8% 11% 9% 4% 6% 25% over PO
3-5 August TNS OBOP 31% 12% 15% 9% 15% 11% 3% 4% 16% over PiS/SRP
2-5 August CBOS 30% 4% 10% 15% 10% 12% 8% 5% 6% 15% over PiS
6-8 July TNS OBOP 29% 13% 11% 10% 14% 13% 5% 5% 15% over SRP
5-8 July CBOS 30% 3% 12% 12% 7% 17% 8% 4% 6% 13% over SRP
8-10 June TNS OBOP 32% 12% 12% 9% 14% 9% 4% 8% 18% over SRP
7-10 June CBOS 31% 4% 10% 14% 8% 14% 8% 5% 6% 17% over PiS/SRP
25-27 May TNS OBOP 34% 12% 11% 8% 14% 7% 5% 9% 20% over SRP
11-13 May TNS OBOP 36% 11% 12% 10% 12% 7% 6% 6% 24% over PiS/SRP
10-13 May CBOS 34% 3% 11% 10% 9% 13% 7% 5% 8% 21% over SRP
20-22 April TNS OBOP 33% 12% 11% 10% 15% 9% 2% 8% 18% over SRP
12-15 April Demoskop 32% 11% 11% 4% 10% 5% 4% 23% 21% over PO/PiS
6-8 April TNS OBOP 39% 11% 11% 9% 11% 7% 5% 7% 28% over PO/PiS/SRP
5-8 April CBOS 33% 4% 12% 11% 12% 10% 6% 3% 9% 21% over PO/PSL
9-11 March TNS OBOP 37% 14% 12% 9% 10% 9% 2% 7% 23% over PO
1-4 March CBOS 35% 2% 10% 11% 9% 11% 10% 3% 11% 24% over PiS/SRP
23-25 February TNS OBOP 39% 11% 14% 9% 11% 9% 4% 3% 25% over PiS
9-11 February TNS OBOP 40% 13% 10% 10% 8% 8% 3% 8% 27% over PO
1-4 February CBOS 47% 1% 11% 9% 8% 10% 7% 2% 6% 36% over PO
12-14 January TNS OBOP 42% 12% 10% 8% 11% 7% 3% 7% 30% over PO
10-14 January CBOS[lower-alpha 1] 40% 3% 12% 11% 8% 8% 6% 3% 8% 28% over PO
January 2002 PBS 44% 14% 8% 7% 13% 10% - 4% 30% over PO
2002
15-17 December TNS OBOP 40% 13% 10% 7% 11% 7% 4% 8% 27% over PO
8-10 December TNS OBOP 40% 12% 6% 11% 12% 8% 7% 4% 28% over PO/SRP
7-10 December CBOS[lower-alpha 1] 40% 3% 12% 13% 8% 9% 7% 3% 6% 27% over PiS
December 2001 PBS 45% 11% 8% 10% 13% 7% 2% 4% 32% over SRP
24-26 November TNS OBOP 40% 13% 6% 9% 16% 7% 1% 8% 24% over SRP
10-12 November TNS OBOP 50% 10% 7% 8% 12% 7% 2% 4% 38% over SRP
9-12 November CBOS[lower-alpha 1] 48% 12% 7% 9% 10% 7% 3% 6% 36% over PO
10-11 November PBS 42% 13% 7% 9% 14% 8% 3% 4% 28% over SRP
20-22 October TNS OBOP 46% 14% 7% 9% 10% 7% 3% 3% 32% over PO
12-15 October CBOS[lower-alpha 1] 39% 14% 9% 8% 12% 8% 4% 6% 25% over PO
30 September PBS 43% 13% 8% 8% 15% 7% 1% 5% 28% over SRP
23 September 2001 Election results 41% 12.7% 9.5% 9% 10.2% 7.9% 3.1% 6.7% 28.3% over PO

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 Until February 2001, CBOS polls did not disregard those polled who said they were still undecided. To ensure consistency, the result of the polls prior to February 2001 has been adjusted to exclude the undecided.

Results

Party Sejm Senate
Votes % Seats +/– Votes % Seats +/–
Law and Justice3,185,71427.0155+1115,020,70420.849–
Civic Platform2,849,25924.1133+684,090,49716.934–
Self-Defense of the Republic of Poland1,347,35511.456+32,016,8588.33+1
Democratic Left Alliance1,335,25711.355–1613,114,11812.90–75
League of Polish Families940,7628.034–42,990,09212.47+5
Polish People's Party821,6567.025–171,413,8725.92–2
Social Democracy of Poland459,3803.90New573,5562.40New
Democratic Party289,2762.50New683,7992.80NJew
Janusz Korwin-Mikke Platform185,8851.60New375,0371.60New
Patriotic Movement124,0381.10New234,0931.00New
Polish Labour Party91,2660.80New11,7650.10–
German Minority34,4690.32088,8750.40–
Polish National Party34,1270.30New168,4130.70New
Ancestral Home32,8630.30New181,3370.80New
Centre21,8930.20New246,1431.00New
All-Poland Civic Coalition16,2510.10New65,5610.30New
Party Initiative of the Republic of Poland11,9140.10New45,7120.20New
Polish Confederation - Dignity and Work8,3530.10New10,5280.00New
National Revival of Poland7,3760.10New––––
German Minority of Silesia5,5810.100––––
Labour Party1,0190.00New––––
Social Rescuers9820.00New18,4390.10New
Local lists and independents––––2,792,57211.75+3
Invalid/blank votes440,227–––426,054–––
Total12,244,903100460012,262,3111001000
Registered voters/turnout30,229,03140.6––30,229,03140.6––
Source: Nohlen & Stöver

Had the two leading parties been able to form a coalition, as expected, it would have had 62.6 percent of seats in the Assembly, just short of the two-thirds supermajority required to carry out more ambitious projects, such as constitutional reform, but this was not to be (see below). The populist and isolationist Self-Defense of the Polish Republic (Samoobrona) slightly improved its representation and became the third largest party ahead of the SLD, which despite losing most of its seats performed slightly better than suggested in opinion polls. It has, however, lost all its Senate seats. The League of Polish Families and the Polish People's Party retained their representation. The German minority in Poland is exempt from the requirement of achieving at least 5% of the total vote and retained their 2 seats.

Distribution of the vote

Although PiS and PO were the clear winners, their vote was very unevenly distributed, creating a basis for future conflicts. Their support is overwhelmingly concentrated in the cities, particularly Warsaw and the southern industrial areas around Kraków and Katowice, but also including Gdańsk, Gdynia, Poznań, Wrocław and Szczecin. The only urban centre not to endorse the right was Łódź. The two main parties failed to win a majority in any rural district except Rzeszów in the south. In seven rural districts they polled less the 40 percent of the vote, while in one (Chełm) they polled less than 35 percent. While no other single party polled a majority in any district, the vote shows the continuing sharp divide in Polish politics between urban voters, who are generally more socially liberal and in favour of free-market economics, and rural voters, who are more socially conservative and economically left-wing.

Aftermath

Negotiations between PiS and PO about forming the new government collapsed in late October, precipitated by disagreement regarding who would be speaker of the Sejm. On 1 November the PiS announced a minority government headed by Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz as the new Prime Minister. The negotiations were affected by the 9 October presidential election, where the PiS victor Lech Kaczyński is the twin brother of the PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński; Jarosław Kaczyński had declared that he would not become the Prime Minister if his brother wins the election. The constitutional requirement to form a government within a set time period also heated up the coalition negotiations.

A major stumbling block against forming a coalition was the PO's insistence on receiving the Interior portfolio if it were to enter a coalition government with the PiS, to prevent one party from controlling all three of the "power" ministries (Security, Justice and Interior) that control the police and security services. The PO also opposed a "tactical alliance" between the PiS and Samoobrona, who share eurosceptic and populists sentiments, although differing on economic policy. The election campaign, in which both centre-right parties competed mainly against each other rather than parties on the left, accentuated differences and created an antagonistic relationship between the two parties.

The minority government depended on the support of the radical Samoobrona and the deeply conservative League of Polish Families (LPR) to govern, a situation that made many of those hoping for a PiS/PO coalition uneasy. On 5 May 2006 PiS formed a coalition government with Samoobrona and LPR.

In July 2006, Marcinkiewicz tendered his resignation, following reports of a rift with PiS party leader Kaczyński. Kaczyński formed a new government and was sworn-in on July 14, finally becoming prime minister.

Further reading

References

  1. ↑ Nohlen, D & Stöver, P (2010) Elections in Europe: A data handbook, p1491 ISBN 978-3-8329-5609-7

External links

Wikinews has related news: Polish parliamentary election - unofficial results
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