Polish presidential election, 2015

Polish presidential election, 2015

10 May 2015 (first round) 24 May 2015 (second round)

Turnout 48.96% (first round) 55.34% (second round)   Nominee Andrzej Duda Bronisław Komorowski Party PiS Independent Popular vote 8,630,627 8,112,311 Percentage 51.55% 48.45%

President before election Bronisław Komorowski PO Elected President Andrzej Duda PiS

Presidential elections were held in Poland on 10 and 24 May 2015. In the first round of voting, opposition Law and Justice (PiS) candidate Andrzej Duda received the greatest number of votes with a share of 34.76%, followed by incumbent president Bronisław Komorowski (with 33.77%), who ran as an independent with the endorsement of the Civic Platform (PO),^[1] which he had renounced his membership in after winning the 2010 elections. Independent candidate Paweł Kukiz came third with 20.80% of the votes. As no candidate had received more than 50% of the votes cast, a second round was held on 24 May between the two highest-placed candidates, Duda and Komorowski. This round was won by Duda with 51.5% of the votes, to Komorowski's 48.5%. This was the closest presidential election in Polish history.

The victory of Duda's Law and Justice party is the latest in a series of electoral victories for eurosceptic centre-right and right-wing parties in Europe. His party received strong support in the eastern half of the country closest to Ukraine and had campaigned on a platform of tax cuts, continued privatization, continued social welfare spending, anti-corruption, constitutional reform, increased military spending and closer ties to NATO, limited support of EU integration, and restrictions on abortion, euthanasia, legal recognition of homosexual couples and media portrayals of sex and violence.

Electoral system

The president was elected directly by the people to serve for five years, and can be re-elected only once. Pursuant to the provisions of the Constitution, the president had to be elected by an absolute majority of valid votes; if no candidate succeeds in passing this threshold, a second round of voting is held with the two candidates who received the largest and second largest number of votes respectively.

In order to be registered to contest the elections, candidates had to be a Polish citizen, at least 35 years old on the day of the first round of the election, and have collected at least 100,000 voters' signatures.

According to the article 28, the day of the election had to fall on a Sunday between 100 to 75 days before the end of the term of the incumbent. As the term of Bronisław Komorowski will officially end on 6 August 2015, the first round had to occur between 27 April and 22 May, so that the possible dates were theoretically either 3, 10, or 17 May, though in practice only the latter two were realistic possibilities as the first fell on Constitution Day, a national holiday.^[2]

This was the first presidential election carried out following changes in 2011.^[3]

Candidates

In total 23 candidates registered with the State Electoral Commission.^[4] Only 11 submitted the required 100,000 signatures supporting their candidacy before the 26 March deadline.:^[5]

• 

  Movie director Grzegorz Braun (independent), age 48

• 

  Member of European Parliament Andrzej Duda (Law and Justice), age 42

• 

  Marszałek of Świętokrzyskie Voivodeship Adam Jarubas (Polish People's Party), age 40

• 

  Incumbent President of Poland Bronisław Komorowski (independent, endorsed by Civic Platform), age 62

• 

  Member of European Parliament Janusz Korwin-Mikke (KORWiN), age 72

• 

  Columnist and bodybuilder Marian Kowalski (National Movement), age 50

• 

  Rock singer and member of the Lower Silesian Regional Assembly Paweł Kukiz (independent), age 51

• 

  Historian and politician Magdalena Ogórek (independent, endorsed by Democratic Left Alliance), age 36

• 

  Member of Sejm Janusz Palikot (Your Movement), age 50

• 

  Entrepreneur Paweł Tanajno (Direct Democracy), age 39

• 

  Barrister Jacek Wilk (Congress of the New Right), age 40

Rejected candidates

The registered candidates who failed to submit 100,000 signatures supporting their run for office were:

• Artur Głowacki, an entrepreneur^[6]
• Anna Grodzka, the first transgender member of the Polish parliament,^[7] The Greens party candidate^[8]
• Zdzisław Jankowski, deputy leader of Patriotic Poland party, former member of Sejm^[9]
• Włodzimierz Julian Korab-Karpowicz, a philosopher and political scientist^[10]
• Dariusz Łaska, a candidate representing a minor NGO Patriotic Community of Solidary Deliberation.^[11]
• Stanisław Majdański, former senator, candidate of agrarian conservative Ojcowizna party.^[6]
• Balli Marzec, ethnic Kazakh activist and publicist, candidate of NGO Kazakh Community.^[12]
• Kornel Morawiecki, democratic activist in time of PRL, founder and leader of Fighting Solidarity, candidate in 2010 election.^[13]
• Zenon Nowak, candidate of party Brave Dad protecting rights of fathers.^[14]
• Wanda Nowicka, current Deputy Marshall of the Sejm, the candidate of the social-democratic party Labour United.^[15]
• Iwona Piątek, leader of Women's Party^[16]
• Adam Słomka, a former member of Sejm and an anti-communist activist^[17]

Among those who publicly announced their candidacy, but failed to register, were:

• Waldemar Deska, a musician, former member of reggae band Daab, the candidate of the Libertarian Party,^[18] eventually withdrew his candidacy and expressed his support for Janusz Korwin-Mikke.^[19]
• Włodzimierz Zydorczak, businessman and candidate of association Obywatelska RP.^[20] had his application rejected by the State Electoral Commission^[4]

Campaign

Television debates

One debate took place before the first round, on 5 May, chaired by Krzysztof Ziemiec and aired on TVP 1.^[21] Ten candidates attended the debate, while President Komorowski declined to appear.^[22]

Two debates took place before the second round, the first chaired by Dorota Gawryluk and by Krzysztof Ziemiec on 17 May,^[23] and the second on 21 May by TVN, chaired by Monika Olejnik, Bogdan Rymanowski and Justyna Pochanke. In both of these, the candidates also had the opportunity to pose questions to the other.^[24] Komorowski was generally regarded by the Polish press and political analysts to have won the first of the second-round debates.^[25] The second debate was considered to be less decisive.^[26][27][28]

Opinion polls

Nearly all opinion polls taken before the first round of the election predicted President Komorowski would receive the largest vote share in the first round, with some polls taken in late 2014 and early 2015 suggesting he was on track for an outright win that would avoid a runoff election.^[29][30]

Polls were closer in the second round, with most predicting a narrow Duda victory.^[31] At least one late poll showed Komorowski pulling ahead, but just slightly.^[32]

First round

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Undecided													Others	Lead
			Komorowski IN	Duda PiS	Ogórek SLD	Jarubas PSL	Palikot TR	Korwin-Mikke KORWiN	Braun IN	Grodzka Greens	Kowalski RN	Kukiz IN	Wilk KNP	Nowicka UP
EXIT POLLS: IPSOS	10 May 2015	-	32.2%	34.8%	2.4%	1.6%	1.5%	4.4%	1.1%	-	0.8%	20.3%	0.6%	-	0.3%	2.6%
Election day (10 May)
IBRiS	8 May 2015	7.5%	39%	31%	3%	2%	1%	3%	1%	-	1%	19%	0%	-	0%	8%
TNS Poland	6-7 May 2015	13%	35%	27%	3%	2%	1%	3%	1%	-	0%	15%	0%	-	0%	8%
Millward Brown	7 May 2015	3%	39%	27%	4%	2%	3%	5%	1%	-	0%	13%	0%	-	0%	12%
IBRiS	6 May 2015	5%	39.7%	29%	2.4%	3.2%	1.7%	4.2%	0.8%	-	0.7%	14.3%	0%	-	0.1%	10.7%
Pressmix	3 May 2015	5.1%	33.3%	33.3%	3.3%	1.8%	0.9%	6.6%	0.8%	-	0.6%	13.7%	0.5%	-	0.1%	Tie
Millward Brown	13 April 2015	7%	45%	28%	4%	2%	2%	6%	-	-	-	6%	-	-	-	17%
TNS Poland	7-8 April 2015	13%	46%	24%	3%	1%	2%	4%	-	-	-	6%	-	-	-	22%
Millward Brown	30 March 2015	9%	42%	26%	7%	2%	3%	6%	-	-	1%	4%	-	-	-	16%
IBRiS	27-28 March 2015	11.1%	40.7%	26.6%	4.9%	5.1%	2.7%	4.8%	0.4%	-	0.4%	3.3%	0%	-	-	14.1%
100,000 supporting signatures deadline (26 March)
TNS Poland	13–18 March 2015	21%	41%	24%	6%	2%	1%	2%	-	-	-	2%	-	1%	-	17%
Millward Brown	16 March 2015	2%	46%	31%	4%	1%	4%	4%	-	0%	1%	5%	-	1%	1%	15%
PPW	9–15 March 2015	-	48%	30%	4%	2%	6%	4%	-	1%	1%	2%	1%	0%	1%	18%
IBRiS	13 March 2015	12%	46%	26%	5%	4%	3%	3%	-	-	-	1%	-	-	-	20%
TNS Poland	10-11 March 2015	12%	45%	27%	5%	1%	1%	4%	<1%	1%	<1%	2%	<1%	1%	1%	18%
CBOS	5–11 March 2015	18%	52%	19%	3%	1%	2%	1%	-	<0.5%	<0.5%	2%	-	<0.5%	2%	33%
PPW	2–8 March 2015	-	48%	28%	3%	2%	7%	4%	-	1%	1%	4%	-	1%	1%	20%
Millward Brown	2 March 2015	2%	46%	27%	8%	3%	2%	4%	-	1%	1%	4%	-	0%	2%	19%
PPW	23-28 Feb 2015	-	50%	28%	4%	3%	5%	3%	-	1%	1%	3%	-	1%	1%	22%
Ipsos	25-26 Feb 2015	3.2%	49.7%	28%	5.7%	2%	1.4%	3.8%	-	-	0.7%	3.5%	0.3%	-	0.5%	21.7%
PPW	16-22 Feb 2015	-	51%	25%	4%	3%	6%	2%	-	1%	1%	5%	-	1%	1%	26%
TNS Poland	13-18 Feb 2015	22%	47%	17%	6%	4%	1%	1%	-	1%	-	1%	-	-	-	30%
Estymator	15-17 Feb 2015	-	51%	25%	8%	4%	2%	3%	0%	1%	0%	5%	0%	-	-	26%
Millward Brown	16 Feb 2015	5%	47%	24%	7%	2%	6%	3%	–	1%	0%	4%	-	-	-	23%
GfK Polonia	12-16 Feb 2015	14%	52%	20%	4%	2%	2%	2%	–	-	-	3%	-	-	-	32%
IBRiS	12-13 Feb 2015	9%	49%	26%	5%	2%	2%	2%	–	1%	<1%	3%	<1%	-	-	23%
CBOS	5-11 Feb 2015	8%	63%	15%	3%	2%	1%	3%	–	1%	-	-	-	-	4%	48%
TNS Poland	4-5 Feb 2015	11%	53%	19%	5%	2%	2%	2%	–	1%	1%	-	-	-	4%^e	34%
IBRiS	3 Feb 2015	-	55%	25%	5%	1%	2%	4%	–	-	-	-	-	-	-	30%
Millward Brown	25 Jan 2015	4%	62%	18%	8%	1%^a	2%	3%	–	-	1%	-	-	-	-	44%
TNS Poland	16-21 Jan 2015	24%	52%	12%	5%	-	2%	3%	–	-	0%	-	-	-	-	40%
Ariadna	16-20 Jan 2015	-	48%	17%	7%	2%	7%	7%	–	-	2%	-	-	-	10%^d	31%
GfK Polonia	15-18 Jan 2015	20%	55%	14%	4%	-	2%	3%	–	-	-	-	-	-	-	41%
TNS Poland	12-13 Jan 2015	11%	56%	19%	6%	1%	2%	4%	–	-	-	-	-	-	1%	37%
Millward Brown	12 Jan 2015	4%	65%	21%	6%	-	1%	3%	–	-	-	-	-	-	-	44%
TNS Poland	10-11 Dec 2014	13%	56%	17%	-	-	2%	5%	–	-	-	-	-	-	7%^b	39%
IBRiS	4 Dec 2014	5%	55.6%	23.1%	-	-	1.3%	4.8%	0.7%	-	-	-	-	-	11.5%^c	32.5%

Notes

• ^a PSL's candidate's name had not been announced at the time, however the poll asked about support for any potential party's candidate.
• ^b Including Ryszard Kalisz at 4%
• ^c Including Wojciech Olejniczak at 6.4%, Jarosław Kalinowski at 1.7%, Zbigniew Stonoga at 1%, and Mirosław Piotrowski at 0.4%
• ^d Including Ryszard Kalisz at 10%
• ^e Including Ryszard Kalisz at 3%

Second round

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Abstention			Undecided
			Komorowski IN	Duda PiS
Millward Brown	20 May 2015	-	47%	45%	8%
Estymator	18 May 2015	-	48%	52%	-
Millward Brown	18 May 2015	-	47%	44%	9%
IBRiS	14 May 2015	-	43.2%	48%	6.9%
Millward Brown	14 May 2015	-	40%	44%	15%
Estymator	13-14 May 2015	-	46%	54%	-
Election day (10 May)
Millward Brown	7 May 2015	-	54%	41%	5%
Millward Brown	13 April 2015	-	55%	40%	5%
Millward Brown	30 March 2015	-	52%	41%	7%
Millward Brown	16 March 2015	4%	53%	37%	6%
PPW	2–8 March 2015	-	62%	38%	-
Millward Brown	16 Feb 2015	10%	59%	27%	4%
CBOS	5-11 Feb 2015	7%	65%	19%	9%

Results

Duda took a narrow first-place finish over Komorowski in the first round of the election on 10 May 2015, forcing the incumbent into a runoff. The result was described as a surprise, as the Komorowski camp and many political observers expected him to perform better or perhaps win outright.^{[29][31][33][34]} Paweł Kukiz, who finished third in the first round of voting, declined to endorse either Duda or Komorowski, instead offering to moderate a debate between the two candidates.^[35] Komorowski declined to participate, and the debate was never held.^[36]

In the second round of the election on 24 May, Duda unseated Komorowski in the closest presidential election since Poland became a democracy.^[37][38] He defeated the incumbent by a margin of approximately three percentage points, according to official results.^[39]

Results of the first round by counties

Results of the second round by counties

Candidate	Party	First round		Second round
		Votes	%	Votes	%
Andrzej Duda	Law and Justice	5,179,092	34.76	8,630,627	51.55
Bronisław Komorowski	Independent	5,031,060	33.77	8,112,311	48.45
Paweł Kukiz	Independent	3,099,079	20.80
Janusz Korwin-Mikke	KORWiN	486,084	3.26
Magdalena Ogórek	Independent	353,883	2.38
Adam Jarubas	Polish People's Party	238,761	1.60
Janusz Palikot	Your Movement	211,242	1.42
Grzegorz Braun	Independent	124,132	0.83
Marian Kowalski	National Movement	77,630	0.52
Jacek Wilk	Congress of the New Right	68,186	0.46
Paweł Tanajno	Direct Democracy	29,785	0.20
Invalid/blank votes		124,952	–	250,231	–
Total		15,023,886	100	16,993,169	100
Registered voters/turnout		30,688,570	48.96	30,709,281	55.34
Source: PKW, PKW

Reactions

Komorowski said after the release of the exit poll that it was important to respect the result of the vote.^[37] He conceded defeat that evening and wished Duda "a successful presidency".^[40]

Duda hailed his victory as a vote for change.^[40] His campaign manager said the election showed that the Law and Justice bloc could win parliamentary elections scheduled for the fall.^[41]

Many world leaders, including United States President Barack Obama,^[42] German Chancellor Angela Merkel,^[43] and Russian President Vladimir Putin,^[44] congratulated Duda on his victory.

See also

• History of Poland (1989–present)
• Polish Constitutional Court crisis, 2015

References

1. "Platforma "murem" za Bronisławem Komorowskim. Premier Kopacz apeluje: Polacy, wybierzcie właściwie" [Civic Platform fully supports Bronisław Komorowski. Premier Kopacz appeals: Poles, make the right choice]. Polskie Radio. 2015-02-06. Retrieved 2015-07-13.
2. "Termin wyborów prezydenckich w 2015 roku".
3. "Sejm RP uchwalił Kodeks wyborczy zawierający propozycje ISP". Instytut Spraw Publicznych. Retrieved 26 May 2015.
4. "Wykaz złożonych zawiadomień o utworzeniu komitetu wyborczego w związku z wyborami Prezydenta Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej". Retrieved 17 March 2015.
5. "Wykaz kandydatów". Wybory Prezydenta Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej 2015. Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza. Retrieved 27 March 2015.
6. "Wybory prezydenckie 2015: PKW zarejestrowała 23 komitety wyborcze kandydatów na prezydenta. Jakie?". Portal Samorządowy.
7. Poland's first transsexual and gay MPs take seats in parliament The Guardian, 8 November 2011
8. "Anna Grodzka dla WP: tak, będę kandydować na prezydenta". wp.pl. Wirtualna Polska.
9. "Kolejne zgłoszenie komitetu kandydata na prezydenta". onet.pl. Onet. Retrieved 11 March 2015.
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11. "PKW zarejestrowała kolejne trzy komitety wyborcze". wp.pl. Wirtualna Polska. Retrieved 27 February 2015.
12. "Kazaszka Balli Marzec chce być prezydentem". rp.pl. Rzeczpospolita. Retrieved 28 February 2015.
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17. "Wybory prezydenckie/ PKW zarejestrowała dwa kolejne komitety: Grodzkiej i Słomki". radiopik.pl. Polskie Radio PiK. Retrieved 25 February 2015.
18. "Waldemar Deska, kandydat na prezydenta: Popierają mnie tysiące pokrzywdzonych przez fiskusa. To kula śniegowa". natemat.pl. natemat.pl.
19. "Wybory prezydenckie 2015. Waldemar Deska udzielił poparcia Januszowi Korwin-Mikkemu". polskatimes.pl. PolskaTimes.pl. Retrieved 17 March 2015.
20. "Włodzimierz Zydorczak kandydatem na prezydenta RP". tvn24.pl. TVN24. Retrieved 28 February 2015.
21. "Krzysztof Ziemiec poprowadzi debatę dziesięciu kandydatów" (in Polish). Press. 5 May 2015. Retrieved 29 May 2015.
22. "Candidates debate on TV prior to presidential elections". Radio Poland. 5 May 2015. Retrieved 29 May 2015.
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24. Skolimowski, Piotr (20 May 2015). "Polish Ballot Too Close to Call as Presidential Debate Looms". Bloomberg. Retrieved 29 May 2015.
25. Skolimowski, Piotr (17 May 2015). "Polish President Revives Election Campaign With Debate Win". Bloomberg. Retrieved 29 May 2015.
26. "Duda and Komorowski participate in TV debate". Radio Poland. 21 May 2015. Retrieved 29 May 2015.
27. "Polish president, challenger face off in last debate". The Washington Post. 21 May 2015. Retrieved 29 May 2015.
28. Skolimowski, Piotr (21 May 2015). "No Knockout in Polish Presidential Debate as Election Nears". Bloomberg. Retrieved 29 May 2015.
29. Cienski, Jan (10 May 2015). "A Polish stunner". POLITICO. Retrieved 28 May 2015.
30. "Poland election: President Komorowski loses to rival Duda". BBC News. 25 May 2015. Retrieved 28 May 2015.
31. "Komorowski vs. Duda in unpredictable Poland runoff poll". Deutsche Welle. 24 May 2015. Retrieved 28 May 2015.
32. "Poland's President Komorowski narrowly leads in poll ahead of run-off". Reuters. 22 May 2015. Retrieved 28 May 2015.
33. "Polish president suffers shock reverse in first round vote: exit poll". Reuters. 10 May 2015. Retrieved 28 May 2015.
34. "Poles Hand President Komorowski Shock Defeat in First-Round". Bloomberg. 10 May 2015. Retrieved 28 May 2015.
35. "Kukiz invites Komorowski, Duda, for presidential debate". Radio Poland. 13 May 2015. Retrieved 28 May 2015.
36. "Kukiz-led presidential debate cancelled". Radio Poland. 21 May 2015. Retrieved 28 May 2015.
37. "Andrzej Duda wins Poland’s presidential election – late poll results". The Warsaw Voice. 24 May 2015. Retrieved 28 May 2015.
38. "Andrzej Duda wins Poland's presidential election". EHO. 26 May 2015. Retrieved 28 May 2015.
39. "Conservative Duda wins Poland's presidential vote". Al Jazeera. 25 May 2015. Retrieved 28 May 2015.
40. "Poland election: Komorowski concedes defeat to Duda". Dnevi avaz. 25 May 2015. Retrieved 28 May 2015.
41. Krafczyk, Eva (25 May 2015). "Polish right-wing party eyes fall elections after Duda's victory". dpa. Retrieved 28 May 2015.
42. "White House congratulates President-elect Duda". Radio Poland. 26 May 2015. Retrieved 28 May 2015.
43. "Kanclerz Angela Merkel, prezydent Niemiec i szef PE gratulują Andrzejowi Dudzie". PolskieRadio.pl (in Polish). 25 May 2015.
44. "Vladimir Putin Wants 'Constructive' Poland Ties After Duda Presidential Win". NDTV. 25 May 2015. Retrieved 28 May 2015.

External links

• Polish Election Committee (Polish)