Population growth

In biology, population growth is the increase in the number of individuals in a population.

Global human population growth amounts to around 75 million annually, or 1.1% per year. The global population has grown from 1 billion in 1800 to 7 billion in 2012. It is expected to keep growing, where estimates have put the total population at 8.4 billion by mid-2030, and 9.6 billion by mid-2050.^[1]

Population[2]
Years Passed	Year	Billion
-	1800	1
127	1927	2
33	1960	3
14	1974	4
13	1987	5
12	1999	6
12	2011	7
14	2025*	8
18	2043*	9
40	2083*	10
* UNFPA United Nations Population Fund estimate 31.10.2011

Population growth rate

The "population growth rate" is the rate at which the number of individuals in a population increases in a given time period, expressed as a fraction of the initial population. Specifically, population growth rate refers to the change in population over a unit time period, often expressed as a percentage of the number of individuals in the population at the beginning of that period. This can be written as the formula, valid for a sufficiently small time interval:

$Population\ growth\ rate = \frac{ P(t_2) - P(t_1)} {P(t_1)(t_2-t_1)}$

A positive growth rate indicates that the population is increasing, while a negative growth rate indicates that the population is decreasing. A growth ratio of zero indicates that there were the same number of individuals at the beginning and end of the period—a growth rate may be zero even when there are significant changes in the birth rates, death rates, immigration rates, and age distribution between the two times.^[3]

A related measure is the net reproduction rate. In the absence of migration, a net reproduction rate of more than 1 indicates that the population of females is increasing, while a net reproduction rate less than one (sub-replacement fertility) indicates that the population of females is decreasing.

Human population growth rate

A world map showing global variations in fertility rate per woman, according to the CIA World Factbook's 2015 data.

7–8 children   6–7 children

5–6 children   4–5 children

3–4 children   2–3 children

1–2 children   0–1 children

Estimates of population evolution in different continents between 1950 and 2050, according to the United Nations. The vertical axis is logarithmic and is in millions of people.

Growth rate of world population (1950–2050).

Globally, the growth rate of the human population has been declining since peaking in 1962 and 1963 at 2.2% per annum. In 2009, the estimated annual growth rate was 1.1%.^[4] The CIA World Factbook gives the world annual birthrate, mortality rate, and growth rate as 1.86%, 0.78%, and 1.08% respectively.^[5] The last 100 years have seen a rapid population growth due to medical advances, lower mortality rates and massive increase in agricultural productivity^[6] made possible by the Green Revolution.^[7][8][9]

The actual annual growth in the number of humans fell from its peak of 88.0 million in 1989, to a low of 73.9 million in 2003, after which it rose again to 75.2 million in 2006. Since then, annual growth has declined. In 2009, the human population increased by 74.6 million people.^[4] Each region of the globe has seen huge decline in growth rate in recent decades, though growth rates remain above 2% in some countries of the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa, and also in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Latin America.^[10]

Some countries experience population decline, especially in Eastern Europe mainly due to low fertility rates, high death rates and emigration. In Southern Africa, growth is slowing due to the high number of AIDS-related deaths. Some Western Europe countries might also experience population decline.^[11] Japan's population began decreasing in 2005.^[12]

The United Nations Population Division expects world population to peak at over 10 billion at the end of the 21st century but Sanjeev Sanyal has argued that global fertility will fall below replacement rates in the 2020s and that world population will peak below 9 billion by 2050 followed by a long decline.^[13]

Growth by country

According to United Nations population statistics, the world population grew by 30%, or 1.6 billion humans, between 1990 and 2010.^[14] In number of people the increase was highest in India (350 million) and China (196 million). Population growth was among highest in the United Arab Emirates (315%) and Qatar (271%).^[14]

Growth rates of the world's most populous countries

Rank	Country	Population 2010	Population 1990	Growth (%) 1990–2010
	World	6,895,889,000	5,306,425,000	30.0%
1	China	1,341,335,000	1,145,195,000	17.1%
2	India	1,224,614,000	873,785,000	40.2%
3	United States	310,384,000	253,339,000	22.5%
4	Indonesia	239,871,000	184,346,000	30.1%
5	Brazil	194,946,000	149,650,000	30.3%
6	Pakistan	173,593,000	111,845,000	55.3%
7	Nigeria	158,423,000	97,552,000	62.4%
8	Bangladesh	148,692,000	105,256,000	41.3%
9	Russia	142,958,000	148,244,000	-3.6%
10	Japan	128,057,000	122,251,000	4.7%

Example nation	1967 population	1990 population	1994 population	2002 population	2008 population	Life expectancy in years (2008)	Total population growth from 1960s to 2007- 2011
Eritrea*	N/A*	N/A*	3,437,000[15]	4,298,269	5,673,520[16]	61[17][17]	2,236,520
Ethiopia*	23,457,000*[18]	50,974,000* [19]	54,939,000[15]	67,673,031(2003)	79,221,000[20]	55[17]	55,764,000
Sudan**	14,355,000**[18]	25,204,000** [19]	27,361,000**[15]	38,114,160 (2003)**	42,272,000**[21]	50**[17]	27,917,000
Chad	3,410,000[18]	5,679,000[19]	6,183,000[15]	9,253,493(2003)	10,329,208 (2009)[22]	47[17]	6,919,205
Niger	3,546,000[18]	7,732,000[19]	8,846,000[15]	10,790,352 (2001)	15,306,252 (2009)[23]	44[17]	11,760,252
Nigeria	61,450,000[18]	88,500,000[19]	108,467,000[15]	129,934,911	158,259,000[24]	47[17]	96,809,000
Mali	4,745,000[18]	8,156,000,[19]	10,462,000[15]	11,340,480	14,517,176(2010).[25]	50[17]	9,772,176
Mauritania	1,050,000[18]	2,025,000 [19]	2,211,000[15]	2,667,859 (2003)	3,291,000 (2009)[22]	54[17]	2,241,000
Senegal	3,607,000[18]	7,327,000[19]	8,102,000[15]	9,967,215	13,711,597 (2009)[26]	57[17]	10,104,597
Gambia	343,000[18]	861,000[19]	1,081,000[15]	1,367,124 (2000)	1,705,000[24]	55[17]	1,362,000
Algeria	11,833,126 (1966)[18]	25,012,000[19]	27,325,000 [15]	32,818,500 (2003)	34,895,000[20][27]	74[17]	23,061,874
The DRC/Zaire	16,353,000[18]	35,562,000[19]	42,552,000[15]	55,225,478 (2003)	70,916,439 [20][28]	54[17]	54,563,439
Egypt	30,083,419 (1966)[18]	53,153,000[19]	58,326,000[15]	70,712,345 (2003)	79,089,650 [20][29][29]	72[17]	49,006,231
Réunion (French colony/overseas department)	418,000[18]	N/A[19]	N/A[15]	720,934 (2003)	827,000 (2009) [27]	N/A[17]	409,000
The Falkland Islands (UK Territory)	2,500[18]	N/A[19]	N/A[15]	2,967 (2003)	3,140(2010)[22]	N/A[17]	640
Chile	8,935,500[18]	13,173,000[19]	13,994,000[15]	15,116,435	17,224,200 (2011)	77[17]	8,288,700
Colombia	19,191,000[18]	32,987,000[19]	34,520,000[15]	41,088,227	45,925,397(2010)[30]	73[17]	26,734,397
Brazil	85,655,000[18]	150,368,000[19]	153,725,000[15]	174,468,575 (2000)	190,732,694(2010) [31]	72[17]	105,077,694
Mexico	45,671,000[18]	86,154,000[19]	93,008,000[15]	103,400,165 (2000)	112,322,757(2010)[32]	76[17]	66,651,757
Fiji	476,727 (1966)[18]	765,000[19]	771,000[15]	844,330 (2001)	849,000[27] (2010)	70[17]	372,273
Nauru	6,050(1966)[18]	10,000[19]	N/A[15]	12,329	9,322 (2011)[33]	N/A[17]	3,272
Jamaica	1,876,000[18]	2,420,000[19]	2,429,000[15]	2,695,867 (2003)	2,847,232[34](2010)	74[17]	971,232
Australia	11,540,764 (1964)[18]	17,086,000[19]	17,843,000[15]	19,546,792 (2003)	24,231,058[35] (2010)	82[17]	10,066,508
Albania	1,965,500(1964)[18]	3,250,000[19]	3,414,000[15]	3,510,484	2,986,952 (July 2010 est.)[22][36] (2010)	78[17]	1,021,452
Poland	31,944,000[18]	38,180,000[19]	38,554,000[15]	38,626,349 (2001)	38,192,000(2010)[37]	75[17]	6,248,000
Hungary	10,212,000[18]	10,553,000[19]	10,261,000[15]	10,106,017	9,979,000(2010)[38]	73[17]	-142,000
Bulgaria	8,226,564(1965)[18]	8,980,000[19]	8,443,000[15]	7,707,495(2000)	7,351,234 (2011)[39]	73[17]	-875,330
United Kingdom/UK/Great Britain	55,068,000 (1966)[18]	57,411,000[19]	58,091,000[15]	58,789,194	62,008,048 (2010)[40]	79[17]	7,020,048
Republic of Ireland/Irish Republic/Eire/Ireland	2,884,002(1966)[18]	3,503,000[19]	3,571,000[15]	3,840,838 (2000)	4,470,700 [41] (2010)	78[17]	1,586,698
The PRC/China	720,000,000[18]	1,139,060,000[19]	1,208,841,000[15]	1,286,975,468 (2004)	1,339,724,852(2010)[42]	73[17]	619,724,852
Japan***	98,274,961(1965)[18]	123,537,000[19]	124,961,000[15]	127,333,002	127,420,000 (2010)[43]	82[17]	28,123,865
Ryukyu Islands (Once occupied by the U.S.)***	934,176(1965)[18]	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
India#	511,115,000[18]	843,931,000[19]	918,570,000[15]	1,028,610,328 (2001)	1,210,193,422(2011)[44]	69[17]	699,078,422
Singapore	1,956,000(1967)[18]	3,003,000 (1990) [19]	2,930,000 (1994)[15]	4,452,732 (2002)	5,076,700(2010)[27]	82 (2008)[17]	3,120,700
Sikkim#	183,000(1967)[18]	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Monaco/Monagasie Principality/Principality of Monaco	24,000(1967)[18]	29,000 (1990) [19]	N/A (1994)[15]	31,842 (2000)	35,586[45] (2010)	(2008)[17]	1,586
Greece/Hellas/The Hellenic Republic of Greece	8,716,000(1967)[18]	10,123,000 (1990) [19]	10,426,000 (1994)[15]	10,964,020(2001)[46]	11,305,118(2011)[47]	N/A (2008)[17]	2,589,118
Faroe Islands/The Faroes/ Fearos Islands (Danish dependency.)	38,000 (1967)[18]	N/A(1990) [19]	N/A(1994)[15]	46,345 (2000)	48,917(2010) [48]	N/A (2008)[17]	18,917
Liechtenstein	20,000(1967)[18]	29,000 (1990) [19]	N/A (1994)[15]	33,307(2000)	35,789(2009)[49]	(2008)[17]	15,789
South Korea/ROK	29,207,856(1966)[18]	42,793,000 (1990) [19]	44,453,000 (1994)[15]	48,324,000 (2003)	48,875,000(2010) [50]	(2008)[17]	19,667,144
North Korea/PDRK	12,700,000(1967)[18]	21,773,000 (1990) [19]	23,483,000 (1994)[15]	22,224,195 (2002)	24,051,218(2010)[51]	(2008)[17]	11,351,218
Brunei	107,200(1967)[18]	266,000(1990) [19]	280,000 (1994)[15]	332,844 (2001)	401,890(2011)[22]	76(2008)[17]	306,609
Malaysia/Federation_of_Malaysia/Malaya	10,671,000(1967)[18]	17,861,000 (1990) [19]	19,489,000 (1994)[15]	21,793,293(2002)	27,565,821(2010)[52]	(2008)[17]	16,894,821
Thailand	32,680,000(1967)[18]	57,196,000 (1990) [19]	59,396,000 (1994)[15]	60,606,947(2000)[53]	63,878,267(2011)[54]	(2008)[17]	31,198,267
Lebanon	2,520,000(1967)[18]	2,701,000 (1990) [19]	2,915,000 (1994)[15]	3,727,703 [55] (2003)	4,224,000[56](2009)	- (2008)[17]
Syria	5,600,000(1967)[18]	12,116,000 (1990) [19]	13,844,000 (1994)[15]	17,585,540 (2003)	22,457,763(2011)[57]	-(2008)[17]
Bahrain	182,00(1967)[18]	503,000 (1990) [19]	549,000 (1994)[15]	667,238 (2003)	1,234,596 [58] (2010)	75(2008)[17]
Sri Lanka/Ceylon	11,741,000(1967)[18]	16,993,000 (1990) [19]	17,685,000 (1994)[15]	19,607,519 (2002)	20,238,000[27] (2009)	- (2008)[17]
Switzerland/Swiss Confederacy/Swiss Confederation	6,050,000(1967)[18]	6.712,000 (1990) [19]	6,994,000 (1994)[15]	7,261,200 (2002)	7,866,500[59] (2010)	- (2008)[17]
Luxembourg	335,000(1967)[18]	381,000 (1990) [19]	401,000 (1994)[15]	439,539 (2001)	511,840(2011)[60]	-(2008)[17]
Romania/Rumania	19,105,056(1966)[18]	23,200,000 (1990) [19]	22,736,000 (1994)[15]	21,680,974 (2002)	21,466,174[61] (2011)	- (2008)[17]
Niuē (New Zealand colony)	1,900(1966)[18]	N/A (1990) [19]	N/A (1994)[15]	2,134 (2002)	1,398(2009)[62]	N/A (2008)[17]	-502
Tokelau/Union Islans/Tokelau Islands (New Zealand colony)	5,194(1966)[18]	N/A (1990) [19]	N/A (1994)[15]	1,445(2001)	1,416(2009)	N/A (2008)[17]	-3,778
Jamaican	1,876,000 (1967)[18]	2,420,000 (1990) [19]	2,429,000 (1994)[15]	2,695,867 (2003)	2,847,232[34](2010)	74 (2008)[17]	971,232
Argentina/The Argentine Republic	32,031,000(1967)[18]	32,322,000(1990) [19]	34,180,000 (1994)[15]	37,812,817 (2002)	40,091,359 (2010)	74 (2008)[17]	8,060,359
France	49,890,660(1967)[18]	56,440,000(1990) [19]	57,747,000 (1994)[15]	59,551,000 (2001)	63,136,180(2011)[63]	81 (2008)[17]
Italy	52,334,000(1967)[18]	57,662,000 (1990) [19]	57,193,000 (1994)[15]	56,995,744 (2002)	60,605,053[64] (2011)	80 (2008)[17]
Mauritius	774,000(1967)[18]	1,075,000(1990) [19]	1,104,000(1994)[15]	1,179,137 (2000)	1,288,000 (2009)[27]	75 (2008)[17]	514,000
Guatemala	4,717,000(1967)[18]	9,197,000 (1990) [19]	10,322,000 (1994)[15]	12,974,361 (2000)	13,276,517 (2009)	70 (2008)[17]	8,559,517
Cuba	8,033,000(1967)[18]	10,609,000 (1990) [19]	10,960,000 (1994)[15]	11,177,743 (2002)	11,239,363(2009)[65]	77 (2008)[17]
Barbados	246,000(1967)[18]	255,000 (1990) [19]	261,000 (1994)[15]	250,012 (2001)	284,589(2010)[22]	73 (2008)[17]	18,589
Western Samoa	131,377(1967)[18]	164,000 (1990) [19]	164,000 (1994)[15]	178,173 (2003)	179,000(2009)[27]	N/A (2008)[17]
Sweden	7,765,981(1967)[18]	8,559,000 (1990) [19]	8,794,000 (1994)[15]	8,920,705 (2002)	9,354,462 (2009)	81 (2008)[17]
Finland/Suomi/Suomen tasavalta	4,664,000(1967)[18]	4,986,000 (1990) [19]	5,095,000 (1994)[15]	5,175,783 (2002)	5,374,781 (2010)	N/A (2008)[17]
Portugal	9,440,000(1967)[18]	10,525,000 (1990) [19]	9,830,000 (1994)[15]	10,355,824 (2001)	10,647,763[66](2011)	N/A (2008)[17]
Austria	7,323,981(1967)[18]	7,712,000 (1990) [19]	8,031,000 (1994)[15]	8,032,926 (2001)	8,404,252 (2011)	N/A (2008)[17]
Libya	1,738,000(1967)[18]	4,545,000 (1990) [19]	5,225,000(1994)[15]	5,499,074 (2002)	6,420,000 (2009)[27]	77 (2008)[17]
Peru	12,385,000(1967)[18]	21,550,000 (1990) [19]	23,080,000(1994)[15]	27,949,639 (2002)	29,496,000(2010)	70 (2008)[17]
Guinea Bissau	528,000(1967)[18]	965,000 (1990) [19]	1,050,000 (1994)[15]	1,345,479 (2002)	1,647,000[27](2009)	48 (2008)[17]
Angola	5,203,066(1967)[18]	10,020,000 (1990) [19]	10,674,000 (1994)[15]	10,766,500(2003)	18,498,000[27][67](2009)	(38 2008)[17]
Equatorial Guinea/E.G.	277,000(1967)[18]	348,000 (1990) [19]	389,000 (1994)[15]	474,214 (2000)	676,000(2009)[27]	61 (2008)[17]
Benin/Dahomey	2,505,000(1967)[18]	4,736,000 (1990) [19]	5,246,000(1994)[15]	8,500,500 (2002)	8,791,832 (2009)	59 (2008)[17]
Laos	2,770,000(1967)[18]	4,139,000 (1990) [19]	4,742,000 (1994)[15]	5,635,967 (2002)	6,800,000[68] (2011)	56(2008)[17]
Nepal/Sri Nepala Sarkar/Kingdom of Nepal/Nepalese Kingdom	10,500,000(1967)[18]	18,961,000 (1990) [19]	21,360,000 (1994)[15]	25,284,463 (2002)	29,331,000[27] (2009)	(2008)[17]
Iran/Persia/Islamic Republic of Iran/Islamic Republic/Iranian Islamic Republic	25,781,090 (1966)[18]	54,608,000(1990) [19]	59,778,000(1994)[15]	66,622,704 (2002)	75,330,000 (2010) [44]	71 (2008)[17]
Canada	20,014,880(1966)[18]	26,603,000(1990) [19]	29,248,000(1994)[15]	31,081,900 (2001)	32,623,490(2011)[69]	81 (2008)[17]
USA/United States/United States of America/US/America	199,118,000(1967)[18]	249,995,000(1990) [19]	260,650,00(1994)[15]	281,421,906 (2000)	308,745,538(2010)[70]	78(2008)[17]
Uganda	7,931,000(1967)[18]	18,795,000 (1990) [19]	20,621,000(1994)[15]	24,227,297 (2002)	32,369,558 (2009)	52 (2008)[17]

Notes

* Eritrea left Ethiopia in 1991.

** Split into the nations of Sudan and Southern Sudan during 2011.

*** Japan and the Ryukyu Islands merged in 1972.

# India and Sikkim merged in 1975.

Population growth 1990–2012 (%)[71]
Africa	73.3%
Middle East	68.2%
Asia (excl. China)	42.8%
China	19.0%
OECD Americas	27.9%
Non-OECD Americas	36.6%
OECD Europe	11.5%
OECD Asia Oceania	11.1%
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia	-0.8%

Thousands of scooters make their way through the city of Hồ Chí Minh, Vietnam.

Into the future

Estimated size of human population from 10,000 BCE to 2000 CE.

The majority of world population growth today is occurring in less developed countries.

According to UN's 2010 revision to its population projections, world population will peak at 10.1bn in 2100 compared to 7bn in 2011.^[72] A 2014 paper by demographers from several universities and the United Nations Population Division forecast that the world's population will reach about 10.9 billion in 2100 and continue growing thereafter.^[73] However, some experts dispute the UN's forecast and have argued that birthrates will fall below replacement rate in the 2020s. According to these forecasters, population growth will be only sustained till the 2040s by rising longevity but will peak below 9bn by 2050.^[13]

See also

• Baby boom
• Biological exponential growth
• Demographic history
• Demographic transition
• Density dependence
• Doubling time
• Fertility factor (demography)
• Irruptive growth
• List of countries by population growth rate
• Natalism and Antinatalism
• Population bottleneck
• Population decline
• population dynamics

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External links

• World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision, Website of the United Nations Population Division
• Probabilistic Population Projections, 2nd Revision, Website of the United Nations Population Division
• 2008 Essays on Population Growth Blue Planet United — Population Press
• World population growth and trends 1950-2050 US Census
• UN University annual "State of the Future" report, including updates on Millennium Project goals including balancing global population growth & resources
• Population Growth Rate By Country, aggregated time series data from 1960 to present
• BBC News - Birth rate 'harms poverty goals' - 08/12/06
• Tsirel, S. V. 2004. On the Possible Reasons for the Hyperexponential Growth of the Earth Population. Mathematical Modeling of Social and Economic Dynamics / Ed. by M. G. Dmitriev and A. P. Petrov, pp. 367–9. Moscow: Russian State Social University, 2004.
• Rosling, Hans (25 January 2009). "What stops population growth?". Gapminder. Retrieved 2009-07-06.