Post-election pendulum for the Victorian state election, 1996

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the Victorian state election, 1996.

"Very safe" seats require a swing of over 20 per cent to change, "safe" seats require a swing of 10 to 20 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

LIBERAL/ NATIONAL SEATS Marginal Ballarat East Barry Traynor LIB 0.0% Oakleigh Denise McGill LIB 0.8% Carrum David Lean LIB 0.8% Ballarat West Paul Jenkins LIB 1.4% Narracan Florian Andrighetto LIB 1.6% Tullamarine Bernie Finn LIB 3.0% Frankston East Peter McLellan^[4] LIB 3.1% Geelong Ann Henderson LIB 3.5% Seymour Marie Tehan LIB 4.2% Ripon Steve Elder LIB 4.6% Prahran Leonie Burke LIB 4.6% Mordialloc Geoff Leigh LIB 4.7% Bentleigh Inga Peulich LIB 4.7% Bendigo East Michael John LIB 5.0% Monbulk Steve McArthur LIB 5.2% Mitcham Roger Pescott^[2] LIB 5.3% Berwick Robert Dean LIB 5.3% Bellarine Garry Spry LIB 5.5% Fairly safe Eltham Wayne Philips LIB 6.8% Bayswater Gordon Ashley LIB 7.5% Gisborne Tom Reynolds LIB 7.8% Knox Hurtle Lupton LIB 7.9% Polwarth Ian Smith LIB 8.1% Dromana Martin Dixon LIB 8.1% Burwood Jeff Kennett LIB 8.6% Cranbourne Gary Rowe LIB 9.1% Bennettswood Geoff Coleman LIB 9.2% Caulfield Helen Shardey LIB 9.3% Safe South Barwon Alister Paterson LIB 10.2% Box Hill Robert Clark LIB 10.3% Portland Denis Napthine LIB 10.4% Forest Hill John Richardson LIB 10.5% Pakenham Rob Maclellan LIB 11.1% Mornington Robin Cooper LIB 11.3% Mooroolbark Lorraine Elliott LIB 12.2% Gippsland West Alan Brown^[1] LIB 12.6% Evelyn Jim Plowman LIB 12.7% Wantirna Kim Wells LIB 13.1% Hawthorn Phil Gude LIB 13.6% Warrnambool John McGrath NAT 13.8% Warrandyte Phil Honeywood LIB 13.9% Sandringham Murray Thompson LIB 14.3% Bulleen David Perrin LIB 14.6% Benambra Tony Plowman LIB 14.9% Kew Jan Wade LIB 15.0% Doncaster Victor Perton LIB 15.0% Gippsland East David Treasure NAT 15.2% Benalla Pat McNamara NAT 15.3% Frankston Andrea McCall LIB 15.4% Glen Waverley Ross Smith LIB 15.7% Malvern Robert Doyle LIB 17.6% Brighton Alan Stockdale LIB 18.1% Swan Hill Barry Steggall NAT 19.0% Gippsland South Peter Ryan NAT 19.4% Shepparton Don Kilgour NAT 19.6% Very safe Wimmera Bill McGrath NAT 21.2% Murray Valley Ken Jasper NAT 22.4% Rodney Noel Maughan NAT 26.1% LABOR SEATS Marginal Werribee Mary Douglas ALP 0.8% Ivanhoe Craig Langdon ALP 1.6% Yan Yean Andre Haermeyer ALP 1.6% Bendigo West Bob Cameron ALP 1.7% Dandenong North Jan Wilson ALP 2.2% Bundoora Sherryl Garbutt ALP 2.6% Morwell Keith Hamilton ALP 2.7% Dandenong John Pandazopoulos ALP 3.3% Essendon Judy Maddigan ALP 3.4% Niddrie Rob Hulls ALP 4.4% Fairly safe Springvale Eddie Micallef ALP 7.9% Geelong North Peter Loney ALP 8.1% Altona Lynne Kosky ALP 8.2% Albert Park John Thwaites ALP 8.8% Clayton Hong Lim ALP 9.6% Safe Mitcham Tony Robinson^[2] ALP 10.5% Pascoe Vale Christine Campbell ALP 11.1% Keilor George Seitz ALP 11.6% Melton David Cunningham ALP 12.2% Mill Park Alex Andrianopoulos ALP 13.9% Northcote Mary Delahunty^[3] ALP 15.0% Preston Michael Leighton ALP 15.3% Williamstown Steve Bracks ALP 15.6% Melbourne Neil Cole ALP 15.9% Coburg Carlo Carli ALP 16.9% Richmond Demetri Dollis ALP 17.3% Sunshine Ian Baker ALP 19.1% Footscray Bruce Mildenhall ALP 19.4% Northcote Tony Sheehan^[3] ALP 19.9% Very safe Thomastown Peter Batchelor ALP 22.0% Broadmeadows John Brumby ALP 25.1% INDEPENDENT & OTHER SEATS Gippsland West Susan Davies^[1] IND v LIB 0.3% Mildura Russell Savage IND v LIB 20.9%

Notes

¹ In December 1996, the Liberal member for Gippsland West, Alan Brown, resigned. Independent candidate Susan Davies won the resulting by-election on 1 February 1997.

² On 11 November 1997, the Liberal member for Mitcham, Roger Pescott, resigned. Labor candidate Tony Robinson won the resulting by-election on 13 December 1997.

³ On 3 July 1998, the Labor member for Northcote, Tony Sheehan, resigned. Labor candidate Mary Delahunty won the resulting state by-election on 15 August 1998.

⁴ The member for Frankston East, Peter McLellan, was elected as a member of the Liberal Party, but resigned on 24 July 1998 and subsequently served out the remainder of his term as an independent.

References

• Green, Antony (December 1998). "1996 Victorian State Election: Summary of Results" (PDF). ABC Election Unit. Retrieved 24 December 2011.
• Green, Antony (June 2001). "1999 Victorian State Election: Summary of Results" (PDF). ABC Election Unit. Retrieved 24 December 2011.