Post-election pendulum for the Victorian state election, 1999

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the Victorian state election, 1999.

"Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

Labor Seats		Liberal-National Seats
		Seat	Margin	Swing		Seat	Margin	Swing
		Broadmeadows	24.7	-0.4
		Thomastown	23.9	+1.9
		Coburg	21.8	+4.9		Malvern	16.6	+1.0
		Sunshine	20.2	+1.1		Murray Valley	15.9	+6.5
		Preston	18.6	+3.3		Rodney	15.7	+10.5
		Williamstown	18.5	+2.9		Brighton	15.6	+2.5
		Footscray	17.6	-1.8		Wimmera ^1	15.1	*
		Richmond	16.2	-1.1		Hawthorn	14.1	-0.5
		Northcote	16.1	-3.8		Kew	13.8	+1.2
		Mill Park	15.8	+1.9		Warrandyte	13.5	+0.4
		Pascoe Vale	14.9	+3.8		Doncaster	13.3	+1.7
		Altona	14.7	+6.5		Glen Waverley	13.2	+2.5
		Melbourne	13.8	-2.1		Sandringham	12.5	+1.8
		Keilor	11.9	+0.3		Wantirna	11.9	+1.2
		Clayton	11.7	+2.1		Bulleen	11.6	+3.0
		Werribee	11.5	+0.8		Mooroolbark	10.9	+1.3
		Melton	11.3	-0.9		Frankston	10.7	+4.7
		Bendigo West	11.3	+9.1		Polwarth	10.7	-2.6
		Geelong North	10.9	+2.8		Evelyn	9.5	+3.2
		Springvale	10.8	+2.9		Warrnambool	8.8	+5.0
		Morwell	8.9	+6.2		Caulfield	8.5	+0.8
		Essendon	8.5	+5.1		Box Hill	7.6	+2.7
		Dandenong North	8.0	+5.8		Gippsland South	7.5	+11.9
		Gippsland East ^2	7.7	*		Benalla	7.4	+7.9
		Niddrie	6.8	+2.4		Knox	7.3	+0.6
		Albert Park	6.4	-2.4		Forest Hill	7.1	+3.4
		Mildura ^3	6.1	*		Benambra	7.1	+7.9
		Bundoora	6.1	+3.5		Burwood	6.8	+1.8
		Dandenong	5.8	+2.4		Pakenham	6.5	+4.6
		Ivanhoe	5.4	+3.9		Dromana	6.2	+1.9
		Frankston East	4.6	+7.7		Bennettswood	6.1	+3.1
		Yan Yean	4.2	+2.6		Mornington	5.7	+5.6
		Gippsland West ^4	3.9	*		Cranbourne	5.7	+3.4
		Tullamarine	3.8	+7.0		Berwick	5.0	+0.4
		Ballarat East	3.7	+4.7		South Barwon	4.7	+5.5
		Oakleigh	3.3	+3.4		Bayswater	4.7	+2.8
		Bendigo East	2.9	+7.9		Portland	4.5	+5.9
		Ripon	2.6	+7.2		Shepparton ^5	4.1	*
		Narracan	2.5	+4.1		Prahran	4.0	+0.6
		Gisborne	1.6	+9.4		Eltham	3.6	+3.3
		Ballarat West	1.0	+5.8		Monbulk	3.2	+2.0
		Seymour	0.7	+4.9		Swan Hill ^6	2.8	*
		Mitcham	0.5	+5.8		Mordialloc	2.2	+2.5
		Carrum	0.2	+1.3		Bentleigh	1.9	+2.8
		Geelong	0.0	+3.5		Bellarine	1.7	+3.8

Notes

Seats which changed hands are shown in bold.

A plus (+) sign in front of a swing figure indicates a swing towards Labor and a minus (-) sign indicates a swing to the Liberal-National parties.

¹ No swing figure is available for this seat due to the lack of a Labor versus Liberal-National margin at the previous election.

² The margin for this seat is Independent (Craig Ingram) over National.

³ The margin for this seat is Independent (Russell Savage) over Liberal.

⁴ The margin for this seat is Independent (Susan Davies) over Liberal.

⁵ The margin for this seat is National over Independent (Chris Hazelman).

⁶ The margin for this seat is National over Independent (Carl Ditterich).

References

• Green, Antony (June 2001). "1999 Victorian State Election: Summary of Results" (PDF). ABC Election Unit. Retrieved 24 December 2011.