Rhineland-Palatinate state election, 2016

Rhineland-Palatinate state election, 2016

13 March 2016

All 101 seats of the Landtag of Rhineland-Palatinate. 51 seats needed for a majority Turnout 70.4 %   First party Second party Third party   Leader Malu Dreyer Julia Klöckner Uwe Junge Party SPD CDU AfD Last election 42 seats, 35.7% 41 seats, 35.2% – Seats before 42 41 – Seats won 39 35 14 Seat change 3 6 14 Popular vote 771,848 677,507 268,628 Percentage 36.2 31.8 12.6 Swing 0.5 3.4 12.6   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Volker Wissing Eveline Lemke Jochen Bülow Party FDP Green Left Last election 0 seats, 4.2% 18 seats, 15.4% 0 seats, 3.2% Seats before 0 17[1] 0 Seats won 7 6 0 Seat change 7 12 Popular vote 132,294 113,261 60,074 Percentage 6.2 5.3 2.8 Swing 2.0 10.2 0.2

Minister-President before election Malu Dreyer SPD Elected Minister-President TBD

The 2016 Rhineland-Palatinate state election was held on 13 March 2016 to elect all 101 members to the Landtag of Rhineland-Palatinate. Seats are allotted by proportional representation with a 5% threshold. State elections were held on the same day in Baden-Württemberg and Saxony-Anhalt.

Going into the election, Malu Dreyer of the Social Democratic Party led a coalition government of her party with Alliance '90/The Greens.

Polls

The reference for the polls is wahlrecht.de.^[2]

Poll	Date	SPD	CDU	Green	FDP	Left	FW	Pirate	AfD	Other
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen[3]	03/10/2016	36%	35%	5.5%	7%	3%	–	–	9%	4.5%
YouGov[3]	03/10/2016	35%	36%	6%	6%	4%	–	–	11%	2%
Forsa[3]	03/09/2016	35%	35%	6%	6%	4%	–	–	9%	5%
INSA[3]	03/07/2016	35%	35%	7%	5%	3%	–	–	9%	6%
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen[3]	03/04/2016	34%	35%	6%	6%	4%	–	–	10%	5%
Infratest dimap[3]	03/03/2016	34%	36%	7%	5%	4%	–	–	9%	5%
Infratest dimap[3]	03/01/2016	32%	36%	8%	6%	4%	–	–	9%	5%
INSA[3]	02/28/2016	32.5%	35%	10%	6%	4%	–	–	8.5%	4%
GESS Phone & Field[3]	02/25/2016	33%	37%	8%	5%	3%	2%	–	9%	3%
INSA[3]	02/22/2016	33%	35%	9%	7%	4%	–	–	8.5%	3.5%
Infratest dimap[3]	02/11/2016	31%	37%	8%	6%	4%	–	–	9%	5%
INSA[3]	02/05/2016	32%	36%	10%	6%	3%	–	–	8%	5%
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen[3]	01/22/2016	31%	38%	7%	5%	5%	–	–	9%	5%
Infratest dimap[3]	01/14/2016	31%	37%	9%	5%	5%	–	–	8%	5%
Infratest dimap[3]	12/10/2015	31%	39%	9%	5%	5%	–	–	7%	4%
INSA[3]	11/25/2015	31%	38.5%	11%	4.5%	3.5%	2.5%	–	7%	2%
GESS Phone & Field[3]	11/19/2015	33%	40%	9%	5%	3%	2%	–	5%	3%
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen[3]	11/06/2015	30%	41%	8%	4%	5%	–	–	6%	6%
Infratest dimap[3]	09/24/2015	31%	41%	10%	5%	5%	–	–	4%	4%
Infratest dimap[3]	07/23/2015	33%	42%	10%	4%	3%	–	–	3%	5%
GESS Phone & Field[3]	06/26/2015	33%	40%	11%	4%	3%	2%	–	4%	2%
Infratest dimap[3]	02/19/2015	32%	42%	11%	3%	3%	–	–	5%	4%
GESS Phone & Field[3]	12/17/2014	30%	43%	10%	3%	4%	1%	1%	5%	3%
Infratest dimap[3]	11/13/2014	31%	43%	11%	2%	4%	–	–	5%	4%
Infratest dimap[3]	09/25/2014	31%	43%	10%	2%	4%	–	–	6%	4%
GESS Phone & Field[3]	06/24/2014	32%	41%	10%	3%	4%	2%	–	4%	4%
Infratest dimap[3]	05/08/2014	31%	41%	11%	3%	4%	–	–	4%	6%
Infratest dimap[3]	04/03/2014	33%	41%	11%	3%	4%	–	–	3%	5%
State election 2011[3]	03/27/2011	35.7%	35.2%	15.4%	4.2%	3.0%	2.3%	1.6%	N/A	2.5%

Results

< 2011    Next >

 Results for the 13 March 2016 election to the 17th Landtag of Rhineland-Palatinate

Party		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	+/–	Seats	+/–
	Social Democratic Party Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – SPD	771,848	36.2	0.5	39	3
	Christian Democratic Union Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – CDU	677,507	31.8	3.4	35	6
	Alternative for Germany Alternative für Deutschland – AfD	268,628	12.6	12.6	14	14
	Free Democratic Party Freie Demokratische Partei – FDP	132,294	6.2	2.0	7	7
	Alliance '90/The Greens Bündnis 90/Die Grünen	113,261	5.3	10.1	6	12
	The Left Die Linke	59,970	2.8	0.2	–	–
	Free Voters Rhineland-Palatinate Freie Wähler	47,924	2.2	0.1	–	–
	Pirate Party Piratenpartei	16,708	0.8	0.8	–	–
	Alliance for Progress and Renewal Allianz für Fortschritt und Aufbruch – ALFA	13,154	0.6	0.6	–	–
	National Democratic Party Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschlands – NPD	10,565	0.5	0.6	–	–
	Ecological Democratic Party Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei – ÖDP	8,623	0.4		–	–
	The Republicans Die Republikaner – REP	5,090	0.2		–	–
	The Unity Die Einheit	3,105	0.1	0.1	–	–
	The Third Way Der III. Weg	1,944	0.1	0.1	–	–
	Other parties	–	–	–	–	–
Valid votes		2,130,621	98.6	0.7
Invalid votes		30,885	1.4	0.7
Totals and voter turnout		2,161,506	70.4	8.6	101	–
Electorate		3,071,972	100.0	—
Source: Landeswahlleiter[4]

Post-election

Malu Dreyer photographed in the evening the state election in the boardroom of the SPD

A coalition of the existing ruling parties, the SPD and the Greens, would not have sufficient votes in the Landtag to be able to muster a majority (they would have 45 seats – 7 short of a majority). Neither would a coalition of the CDU and the returning FDP (they would have 42 seats – 10 seats short). A große Koalition (‘grand coalition’) of the SPD and CDU would have an absolute majority of 22 seats, but with the SPD having ruled out a grand coalition with Klöckner and the CDU ahead of the election, Dreyer looks most likely to work towards a "traffic light coalition," which would see the SPD, Free Democrats (FDP), and Greens join forces. These three parties would be able to form a state government with the SPD holding 39 seats, the Greens 6, and the FPD 7 – this would have a bare majority of 1 vote (52 seats) in the Landtag. A "Jamaica Coalition" of the CDU, FDP, and Greens would fall 4 seats short of the necessary majority. An unlikely, although theoretically possible, coalition between the CDU and AfD would also fall short by 3 seats in the Landtag.

Alternatively, a minority government of the SPD and Greens could take power with the "toleration" of the FDP and/or the CDU, or a FDP/SPD coalition with the toleration of the Greens and/or CDU. This has not had much of a precedent in western Germany, but is entirely possible.^[5]

References

1. Greens MP Rahim Schmidt left his party in 2015 and has since been an independent member of the Landtag. "Abgeordneter verlässt die Grünen" (in German). SWR. 30 September 2015. Retrieved 13 March 2016.
2. "Umfragen Rheinland-Pfalz". wahlrecht.de. Retrieved 30 January 2016.
3. Wahlumfragen zur Landtagswahl in Rheinland-Pfalz
4. "Landesergebnis Rheinland-Pfalz – Endgültiges Ergebnis" (in German). Landeswahlleiter Rheinland-Pfalz. 13 March 2016. Retrieved 13 March 2016.
5. http://www.dw.com/en/rhineland-palatinate-plays-it-safe-re-electing-spd-for-sixth-consecutive-term/a-19112416

External links

• Rhineland-Palatinate Electoral Office