Turnbull Government

The Honourable
Malcolm Turnbull
MP
Prime Minister of Australia
Assumed office
15 September 2015
Monarch Elizabeth II
Governor-General Sir Peter Cosgrove
Deputy
Preceded by Tony Abbott
This article is part of a series about
Malcolm Turnbull

Prime Minister of Australia

The Turnbull Government is the federal executive government of Australia, led by the 29th Prime Minister of Australia, Malcolm Turnbull. The government is made of members of the Liberal-National Coalition. The prime ministership of Malcolm Turnbull commenced on 15 September 2015, when he was sworn in by the Governor-General of Australia. Turnbull took office after he was successful in winning an internal leadership ballot against Tony Abbott. The Turnbull Government succeeds the Abbott Government, which was elected at the 2013 federal election. Warren Truss, the leader of the Nationals continued as Deputy Prime Minister, until he retired in 2016 and was replaced by Barnaby Joyce.

In announcing his candidacy for the Liberal leadership, Turnbull cited extended poor polling in Newspoll by the Abbott Government and said Australia needed a new style of "economic leadership".[1] Turnbull appointed Scott Morrison as Treasurer in an expanded ministry, promoting several key supporters.[2] Julie Bishop remained as Minister for Foreign Affairs. Tony Abbott, Eric Abetz and Kevin Andrews went to the back bench.

The Turnbull Government retained the Abbott Government's policies on carbon pricing and a plebiscite on same-sex marriage; concluded Abbott era initiatives on funding the National Disability Insurance Scheme; on an anti-domestic violence campaign, free trade deals and Senate voting reform; and continued to seek the establishment of an anti-corruption IR watchdog.[3] In March 2016, after six months in Office, Turnbull nominated Senate voting reform, a cities policy, media ownership reform, and encouragement of innovation in business and universities as the key new initiatives of his Government.[4]

Background

Malcolm Turnbull

Malcolm Turnbull entered Parliament as the Member for Wentworth in 2004, and went on to serve as Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister from January 2006, and later Minister for the Environment and Water Resources in the Liberal-National coalition led by Prime Minister John Howard.[5] Before entering Parliament, Turnbull had previously worked as a journalist, a barrister and a merchant banker.[6] He also headed the Australian Republican Movement, and had been active in the failed "Yes" campaign for the 1999 republic referendum.

The Howard Government was defeated at the 2007 federal election by the Australian Labor Party led by Kevin Rudd. In the aftermath, Turnbull entered and lost in the ensuing ballot for the Liberal Party leadership, which was won by Dr Brendon Nelson.[7] Turnbull served as Shadow Treasurer, before toppling Nelson in a November 2008 Liberal leadership spill.[8]

The Godwin Grech Affair undermined Turnbull's authority, and amid extended poor polling, and disagreement within the Coalition over Turnbull's support for the Rudd Government's climate change taxation policies, Turnbull was replaced as leader of the Liberals by Tony Abbott following a 2009 leadership spill.[9] The Coalition's position in the polls was improved by the leadership change,[9] and Abbott went on to lead the Coalition to the 2010 federal election (which resulted in a hung parliament) and to win the 2013 federal election, returning to power after six years in opposition. Turnbull served as Minister for Communications in the Abbott government, and oversaw the National Broadband rollout.

Turnbull challenges Abbott

The Abbott Government delivered its election promises of removing industry taxes on mining and carbon emissions, and halting unauthorised boat arrivals, but its first Budget's expenditure cuts and surprise revenue proposals met with a hostile reception in the Senate and media. Monarchist Abbott's decision to knight the Duke of Edinburgh brought heavy media criticism, and amid declining poll numbers for the Coalition, rumours of an intention by republican Malcolm Turnbull to challenge for the leadership continued. On 5 February, Fairfax reported that leadership speculation was at "fever pitch" after backbench Senator Arthur Sinodinos (a demoted-Minister) questioned Abbott's judgement on Sky News and refused to confirm if the Prime Minister would still hold his job in a week's time.[10] The following day, the ABC's 7.30 reported that "The tensions between the Prime Minister and the colleagues campaigning to oust him are heading to a showdown."[11]

Liberal MPs Don Randall and Luke Simpkins called a February 2015 spill motion to spill the leadership positions of the party, though with no contender. Abbott won the vote 61 to 39. Abbott reportedly asked the Liberal caucus to give him six months to improve the government's standing.[12][13][14]

The ABC reported that in the lead up to the motion, the Abbott Government had been facing "leaks and growing media criticism".[15] In the months after the failed spill motion, leaking and backgrounding against Abbott continued, but polling for the Coalition initially improved.[16][17] Following the Second Hockey Budget in May 2015, Newspoll placed Abbott’s approval rating at an eight-month high, and in front of Bill Shorten as better prime minister for the first time in six months.[18]

Final spill

On 14 September 2015, Turnbull announced that he would be challenging Abbott.[19] Turnbull cited extended poor polling by the Abbott Government and a need for a new style of "economic leadership" as reasons for mounting his challenge to Abbott: "We have lost 30 Newspolls in a row. It is clear that the people have made up their mind about Mr Abbott's leadership," he said.[1] In response, Abbott said that he was "dismayed by the destabilisation that's been taking place now for many, many months" and that Australia needed "strong and stable Government and that means avoiding, at all costs, Labor's revolving-door prime ministership."[20] A September 2015 leadership spill was called, with Turnbull challenging Abbott, and winning by 54 votes to 44, and Abbott supporter Kevin Andrews challenging Julie Bishop and losing 70-30.[21][22][23]

Coalition agreement

Prior to the ballot, the Deputy Prime Minister, Warren Truss, noted in a news conference that the Coalition agreement between the Liberal Party and the Nationals was negotiated with Abbott and that any change in leader would require it to be renegotiated. Political commentators have stated that senior Nationals senators dislike the way that Turnbull handled the carbon reduction policy in 2009, with other Nationals being "deeply upset" that Turnbull did not acknowledge the Nationals during his first press conference as Prime Minister-designate.[24]

Despite these very early tensions, the Nationals ultimately struck a new Coalition agreement with Turnbull on 15 September, shortly before Turnbull was sworn in as prime minister. As part of the agreement, responsibility for water was transferred from Liberal Greg Hunt's environment portfolio to National Barnaby Joyce's agriculture portfolio.[25] The Nationals successfully negotiated a total of $4 billion worth of deals from Turnbull in exchange for a continued Coalition agreement.[26][27] They also received assurances from Turnbull that the Abbott Government's policies in relation to climate change and marriage equality would be maintained under his administration.

Challenge aftermath

Turnbull dropped Abbott, Hockey, Eric Abetz, Ian Macfarlane, Kevin Andrews, Michael Ronaldson and Bruce Billson from his ministry, but increased the number of cabinet ministers from 19 to 21.[28] Polling was initially favourable to Turnbull following the leadership change,[29][30] but the Coalition faced internal tensions. By March 2016, Labor and the Coalition were back to 50-50 in Newspoll results.[31] In his final address to the media as Prime Minister, Abbott expressed pride in the record of his government, but warned against a "poll-driven" political culture and unnamed media figures and politicians who would "connive at dishonour" by spreading anonymous, self-serving claims: "A febrile media culture has developed that rewards treachery" he said.[32]

In the months following the leadership change, Coalition tensions remained. Immigration Minister Dutton was excluded from the National Security Committee of Cabinet, reportedly over tensions between himself and Turnbull.[33] In November, Fairfax reported: "Simmering tensions over the September leadership coup have flared up amid revelations Julie Bishop's chief of staff attended the meeting of Liberal MPs plotting against Tony Abbott on the night before the spill" as Abetz and Dutton called on Bishop to explain.[34]

Former ministers Abetz and Andrews expressed some discontent at government direction, while Bruce Billson announced his retirement and Ian McFarlane - with the support of Deputy Prime Minister Warren Truss - attempted to switch to the National Party, but the move was blocked by the Liberals.[35] Hockey's seat of North Sydney went to a by-election, which saw a 12.84% swing against the Liberal Party.[36][37]

Abbott criticised the leaders of the effort to bring him down, and promised "no sniping" in his final speech as Prime Minister. As a backbencher, Abbott continued his commentary on the record of his government and on world affairs, particularly in relation to national security and the challenge posed by Islamist terrorism. Media critics accused Abbott of "sniping".[29][38][39][40] In January 2016, Abbott announced his intention to recontest the Seat of Warringah at the next election.[41]

Turnbull's differences

On Turnbull's oft-cited key policy differences, climate change, republicanism and marriage equality, as well as wider policy generally, he stated his government would continue to follow the same policies of the Abbott government.[42] Reflecting a change in the Abbott government stance concerning the Australian honours system, on 2 November 2015, Turnbull announced that the Queen approved the Government's request to amend the Order's letter patent and cease awards as Knights and Dames in the Order of Australia after Cabinet agreed that the titles were no longer appropriate in the modern awards system.[43][44]

Ministry

Main article: Turnbull Ministry
Governor-General Peter Cosgrove and Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull pose with newly sworn-in ministers on 21 September 2015.

Tony Abbott made his final statement as prime minister to the waiting media and press at 12:30 pm AEST on 15 September 2015 and handed in his resignation to the Governor-General via fax shortly after. For this reason, there was a delay in Turnbull's swearing in.

Turnbull was sworn in as prime minister at around 1:30 pm AEST on 15 September 2015, by the Governor-General, Sir Peter Cosgrove, in a ceremony at Government House. Question Time for the House of Representatives was delayed until 2:30 pm AEST to accommodate this.[45]

Turnbull announced his new ministry on 20 September. In an extensive reshuffle, he dropped Joe Hockey, Eric Abetz, Ian Macfarlane, Kevin Andrews, Michael Ronaldson and Bruce Billson, increased the number of liberals and decreased the number of conservatives in cabinet, female cabinet ministers rose from two to five, and Marise Payne was appointed as Australia's first female Minister for Defence. The number of cabinet ministers rose from 19 to 21.[28] Sussan Ley was later appointed Minister for Aged Care.[46][47]

Resignations

Within the first six months of the Turnbull Government, a number of senior ministers resigned.

Briggs

Jamie Briggs served as Assistant Minister for Infrastructure and Regional Development in the Abbott Government.[48] An Abbott supporter, he reportedly injured his leg in a party in Abbott's office after Abbott was deposed as Prime Minister, and in which a table was damaged.[48][49] Turnbull appointed Briggs Minister for Cities and the Built Environment (Turnbull had initially dumped Briggs from the ministry, but when Bruce Billson declined to accept a demotion, Briggs was reinstated.[50][51] Following a late-night incident involving a female DFAT staffer in a Hong Kong bar during an official visit in November,[52] Turnbull prompted Briggs to resign and Briggs subsequently quit the Turnbull Ministry on 29 December 2015.[48][53][54] The Australian Financial Review reported "government sources" claiming Briggs was accused of sexual harassment,[48][55]

Brough

Mal Brough was stood down from the ministry at the same time as Briggs resigned. Brough's standing down followed news that the Australian Federal Police were investigating him over an alleged copying of the diary of former speaker Peter Slipper. Brough had served as a Minister in the Howard Government, but lost his seat in the 2007 Election. Abbott did not re-appoint him to the Minisitry, and Brough was a backer of the Turnbull leadership push.[56]

Robb

Andrew Robb had served as Trade Minister in the Abbott Government and oversaw free-trade negotiations for Abbott and Turnbull. He announced his retirement in February 2016, but remains assisting in the Trade Portfolio.[57] Steven Ciobo became Minister for Trade in his place.

Truss

On 11 February 2016 Warren Truss announced his decision to not contest the next federal election and resigned with immediate effect as Parliamentary Leader of the National Party of Australia. Truss announced that he would resign from the Ministry.[58][59][60] A ministerial re-shuffle was announced on 13 February 2016[56]

Following the retirement of Andrew Robb on 10 February 2016, and the resignations of Stuart Robert on 12 February and Brough on 13 February. A new ministry was sworn in on 18 February and included Barnaby Joyce as Deputy Prime Minister, Fiona Nash as Deputy Leader of the Nationals, Darren Chester as a new Cabinet minister for the Nationals, Steven Ciobo moved from the outer ministry into Cabinet, and a range of other appointments to the outer ministry and as assistant ministers.[61][62]

Term of Government

Climate change

Turnbull confirmed that his government would keep the emissions reductions targets set by the Abbott government.[63] Under Turnbull, the Australian Renewable Energy Agency and Clean Energy Finance Corporation were transferred to the responsibility of the Department of Environment, which was seen as a sign that the agencies are going to be retained.[64] Australia attended the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference and adopted the Paris Agreement. The agreement includes a review of emission reduction targets every 5 years from 2020.[65]

Defence

Defence Minister Marise Payne.

During the term of the Abbott Government, Australia had committed to supporting the US-led air campaign against IS in Iraq and Syria. Turnbull replaced Abbott supporter Kevin Andrews with Senator Marise Payne, who became Australia's first female Defence Minister, amid Australia's deployment to the Mid-East. Shortly after Turnbull took office, Russia commenced a separate military intervention in Syria, against opponents of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.[66] US Secretary of State John Kerry, criticised Russia's tactics and told the United Nations in response that "we are now in position with France, Australia, Canada, Turkey, and other coalition partners joining the campaign, to dramatically accelerate our efforts".[67] on 27 October, Abbott criticised the lack of progress of the US–led Coalition on the ground.[68] Turnbull said there were no "current" plans to change the nature of Australia's deployment to the conflict.[69]

Terrorism

The ongoing threat of Islamist terrorism made its presence felt in Australia and abroad within the first months of the Turnbull Government, with a shooting in Sydney, and major IS-inspired terror attacks in Paris, Beirut, Mali and elsewhere. Turnbull appointed Michael Keenan as Minister Assisting the Prime Minister for Counter Terrorism.[47] Immigration Minister Dutton, an Abbott supporter, was excluded National Security Committee of Cabinet, reportedly over tensions between himself and Turnbull.[33]

As Communications Minister in the Abbott Government, Turnbull had distanced himself from the policy emphasis of Abbott by downplaying the threat of Islamic State to the wider world, saying the group was "not Hitler’s Germany, Tojo’s Japan or Stalin’s Russia".[70]

A 15-year-old Islamist shot and killed a police finance worker outside Parramatta Police Station on 2 October 2015. Turnbull called on Australians to show "mutual respect" following the murder.[71]

Amid the deteriorating Syrian Civil War and following Germany's decision to open its borders to large numbers of asylum seekers, Tony Abbott delivered the Margaret Thatcher Lecture in London on 28 October, and urged Europe to look to the Australian example of border management, and for the international community to do more to resolve the Syrian conflict.[72] In a joint conference with Turnbull on 13 November, the German Chancellor agreed "Solutions have to be found to allow the European Union to better protect its external borders", but Turnbull did not endorse Abbott's view.[73] News Limited reported that Turnbull "delivered a slap-down to Tony Abbott for lecturing European leaders over their refugee policies as he arrived in Berlin" to meet with Chancellor Angela Merkel. Turnbull said "I have no intention or desire to give advice on these matters to the German Chancellor".[74]

On the night of 13 November, a co-ordinated series of mass homicide attacks were launched on Paris by IS sympathisers, and over 120 people were killed. Turnbull, still in Germany following his meeting with Merkel, expressed "resolute solidarity with people of France" and held a meeting of the National Security Committee of Cabinet.[75] Turnbull said a political solution, not a military invasion was needed for Syria.[76] France announced that the Paris attacks were an act of war and secured a UN Security Council Resolution authorising the use of military force against the Islamic State and the al-Nusra Front.[77] In the aftermath of the attacks, some of the Turnbull Cabinet criticised the Sunni Grand Mufti of Australia for offering an apparently equivocal condemnation of the Paris attacks.[78] Turnbull said he did not wish to "engage in a textual debate" from overseas.[79]

Economic policy

Scott Morrison replaced Joe Hockey in the Turnbull Government as Treasurer of Australia.

One of the reasons Turnbull gave for challenging for the Liberal leadership was dissatisfaction with the economic message and tone of the Abbott Government. In his first press conference as Prime Minister-designate, Turnbull said the government needed to build confidence in the Australian economy amongst the business community. Stephen Koukoulas of the left-wing Per Capita think tank wrote for The Guardian that "economic growth is sluggish, unemployment is high, real wages are falling and consumer and business confidence are weak" and that Turnbull therefore had "a year to inject confidence and strength into the economy or else he will be swept from office and condemned to history as a wrecker of a first term Liberal government".[80] In his first press conference as Treasurer, Scott Morrison indicated a reduction in government expenditure, and stated that the Mid-Year Financial and Economic Outlook (MYEFO) and White Paper on tax reform would arrive on time.[81]

On 1 October 2015, Turnbull hosted an economic summit at Parliament House, which included representatives from industry, unions, government and the social sector. The three-hour meeting did not result in any policy commitments, but the participants agreed on the need for economic growth, returning to a budget surplus, increasing employment, investing in infrastructure and pushing for innovation and increased productivity.[82]

The MYEFO is expected to include savings measures, as Morrison has stated that "any new spending must be fully offset", giving the examples of the Syrian refugee intake and Roads to Recovery. Deloitte Access Economics estimates that the new spending totals $5 billion since May.[83] The government has said it will remove bulk-billing incentives for pathology services and reduce incentives for MRI services. The social security and welfare payment integrity measures from the last budget will be broadened to increase revenue.[84]

Taxation

In the 2013 Election campaign, Tony Abbott promised a "comprehensive tax white paper" to look at tax reform.[85] In June 2014, Abbott launched the Reform of the Federation white paper, with an eye to clarifying "roles and responsibilities for states and territories so that they are as far as possible, sovereign in their own sphere".[86] In March 2015, Joe Hockey launched the Abbot Government's Tax White Paper titled "Re:think".[87] After taking over the Prime Ministership, Turnbull intervened to delay the release of a tax green paper, and The Sydney Morning Herald reported: "According to bureaucrats, the green paper will now not be released until [2016], pending a full 'reset' on taxation policy and a rethink 'from the ground up'. In policy circles, that's regarded as code for the inclusion of the GST."[88]

Initially, Turnbull confirmed that a GST increase was "on the table", stating that any increase in the GST would be offset by tax breaks and Morrison indicated that superannuation tax would be reviewed.[89] Through in to 2016, Morrison made the case for an increase in the GST.[90] In February, Turnbull ruled out pursuing a GST increase.[91]

Two days before the 2016 Council of Australian Government's meeting, Turnbull responded to a leaked report regarding his plans for reforms to income tax levying. At a press conference at a Penrith football field, Turnbull announced a plan to hand the states income taxing powers, which he explained would be "the most fundamental reform to the federation in generations".[92] State and Territory leaders rejected the plan outright, and Turnbull withdrew the initiative two days later following the COAG meeting.[93]

Education

In the government's first major education policy decision, Education Minister Simon Birmingham announced that the Abbott Government's proposed university deregulation plan would be postponed until at least 2017.[94] Furthermore, Birmingham confirmed that any move to reform university funding will not be submitted to Parliament before the next election.[95]

Foreign Affairs and Trade

Julie Bishop retained the post of Minister for Foreign Affairs in the Turnbull Government

Julie Bishop backed Turnbull's replacement of Tony Abbott as Prime Minister and retained the post of Minister for Foreign Affairs in the Turnbull Government. Andrew Robb supported Abbott, but remained Minister for Trade and Investment until announcing his retirement in February 2016. He was replaced by Steven Ciobo.

Malcolm Turnbull's first overseas visit as Prime Minister was to New Zealand, in October 2015, where he met with Prime Minister John Key and discussed immigration rules.[96] In Novemeber, he embarked on a on a five-nation tour and attended major leaders summits in Europe and Asia.[97]

Trade

The China–Australia Free Trade Agreement agreed by the Abbott Government concluded its passage through Parliament in October 2015.[98] The Turnbull Government continued the Abbott Government's negotiations for an India Free Trade deal.[99] Turnbull also continued the Abbott Government's moves to improve trade relations with Indonesia and Germany, and to establish the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Turnbull met with Indonesian President Joko Widodo and German Chancellor Angela Merkel on his November 2015 world tour and discussed trade.[100] Andrew Robb signed the TPP in February 2016.[97]

Health

Health minister, Sussan Ley is seeking feedback on private health insurance.[101] Hepatitis C treatments will be subsidised from March 2016 under the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme.[102]

Women's Safety Package

On 24 September 2015, shortly after Turnbull became Prime Minister, he, together with the Minister for Women, Michaelia Cash, announced a "$100 million package of measures designed to provide a safety net for women and children at high risk of experiencing violence".[103] Minister Cash also suggested that the government was considering denying American singer Chris Brown a visa due to his highly publicised domestic violence offence in 2009. Turnbull stated that Cash had "very brilliantly expressed the thoughts of the government".[104] Brown was later denied entry to Australia.[105]

Immigration

Peter Dutton, an Abbott supporter, retained his position as Minister for Immigration, following Turnbull's replacement of Abbott as Liberal leader.

Refugees and asylum seekers

Under Operation Sovereign Borders, the maritime people-smuggling trade and associated deaths at sea was halted during the term of the Abbott Government.[106] When Turnbull took office 1,600 asylum seekers and refugees remained at Nauru and Papua New Guinea's Manus Island awaiting processing or resettlement. Turnbull expressed sympathy for these remaining asylum seekers, but indicated he would continue the bi-partisan policy whereby they would not be resettled in Australia.[107]

On 28 September, 7.30 reported that an asylum seeker at Nauru was making allegations of rape.[108][109] The pregnant woman, "Abyan", asked the government to allow her to come to Australia for an abortion, which is illegal on Nauru, and she arrived on 11 October.[110][111][112] The Guardian reported that she feared being sent back to Nauru and asked for counselling, which she said she was not granted before being returned to Nauru.[113] Turnbull said Abyan was returned to Nauru because she changed her mind about having the procedure.[114] Dutton said that "Abyan" had decided not to proceed with the termination, however this was disputed by her representation.[115] Dutton said some advocates were fabricating information, while others were using the case for their "political agenda".[114][116]

As Australia prepared to accept 12,000 refugees from the Syrian conflict, the United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon met with Turnbull at the 2015 ASEAN Summit and criticised the Turnbull Government's offshore asylum seeker processing regime. Ban reportedly expressed concern over the detention conditions in Australia's offshore processing centres, and encouraged Turnbull to reconsider Operation Sovereign Borders.[117]

Infrastructure

Turnbull has committed $95 million to the Gold Coast light rail project.[118] The Turnbull Government has set itself a deadline of December 2016 to choose a single site to store Australia's nuclear waste. Proposed locations include near Sally’s Flat in New South Wales; Hale in the Northern Territory; Cortlinye, Pinkawillinie and Barndioota in South Australia; and Oman Ama in Queensland.[119]

Media and Communications

Communications Minister Mitch Fifield

Turnbull selected Mitch Fifield as Communications Minister. The Turnbull Government moved to reform Keating-era media ownership laws, in a move that could allow mergers of major TV networks and print media. The changes abolished a rule, preventing mergers between regional television networks and their metropolitan affiliates, and a rule which prevented any one proprietor from owning a newspaper, radio station and television network in the same major market.[120]

Media relations

Turnbull served as Minister for Communications in the Abbott Government. Turnbull criticised Tony Abbott's request for his Ministers to boycott the Q&A program over perceived "left wing bias" and the Zaky Mallah Affair. Turnbull told the ABC 7.30 program during the boycott that "I take the view that wherever there is an open microphone I'm happy to get on the other side of it."[121]

Since taking office from Abbott, Turnbull has boycotted the 2GB and 4BC radio networks, after he was criticised by their high-rating conservative commentators Alan Jones, Andrew Bolt, Ben Fordham and Ray Hadley.[122] Turnbull's ascension to the Liberal leadership was welcomed by ABC political commentators Kerry O'Brien,[123] Barrie Cassidy,[124][125] Fran Kelly[126] and Paul Bongiorno[127] By April 2016, Turnbull had conducted 17 interviews at the ABC, and none at 2GB.[122] Fairfax political commentator Mark Kenny calls Turnbull the Coalition's "best electoral asset."[128]

Same sex marriage

Turnbull confirmed that his government would retain the Coalition policy of allowing Australians to vote in a non-binding plebiscite loosely scheduled for 2017.[63][129][130]

Safe Schools Program

The Safe Schools Program, created to combat LGBT bullying in schools, was reviewed by the government after Coalition backbenchers, George Christensen and Cory Bernardi, raised concerns over what they claimed was the "sexualised" nature of the program. On 9 February 2016, The Australian newspaper reported claims that a "gay manual" was being pushed in schools. A spokesperson for the Australian Christian Lobby stated that the program pressured kids and "confuses them about their own identity".[131] Kevin Donnelly, a senior research fellow at the Australian Catholic University has described the program as "social engineering".[132][133] Christensen likened the program to a "pedophile grooming a victim",[134][135] and said the program was attempting to run "queer gender theory" and "marxist ideology" into schools that should be limited to universities. Coalition MPs in disagreement such as Warren Entsch said the concerns were being pushed by external lobby groups. Labor leader Bill Shorten labelled the Christensen group "ideologues ... trying to impose a 1950s view of the world".[136][137]

The government was quick to adopt changes to the program further than the review recommended, announced on 18 March 2016, after 43 of 123 federal Coalition parliamentarians including former leader Tony Abbott had signed a petition.[137][138][139][140] Christensen said afterward: "I still am yet to see the response from the Safe Schools Coalition because we are talking about fundamentally altering what they have proposed and what they have proposed I think was disastrous for schoolchildren so if they reject what the government’s put forward then the funding will just be suspended".[141]

Senate reforms

Following the 2013 election, the Abbott Liberal government announced it would investigate changing the electoral system for the Senate. On 22 February 2016, the Turnbull Liberal government announced the following proposed changes:[142]

The changes had the support of the Liberal/National Coalition, the Australian Greens, and Nick Xenophon − a three-vote majority.[143]

ABC electoral psephologist Antony Green has written several publications on various aspects of the proposed Senate reforms.[144][145][146][147][148][149][150][151]

The Senate reform legislation passed both houses of the Parliament of Australia on 18 March 2016.[152]

Polling

Turnbull nominated the Abbott Government's performance in Newspoll as one of the major reasons for his challenge to Tony Abbott. The poll initially favoured the Coalition following the replacement of Abbott, but by April 2016, it had re-entered negative territory.[153]

2015

The government had been substantially and consistently trailing the Bill Shorten-led Labor opposition on the two-party-preferred vote for nearly two years, with Abbott and Shorten regularly swapping the lead for Preferred Prime Minister. Though the first Preferred Prime Minister poll after the successful spill, conducted by Roy Morgan Research, saw Turnbull record a massive 70 percent honeymoon result with Shorten on just 24 percent, the first two-party poll, conducted by ReachTEL, saw only a three-point shift to the government, producing a 50–50 result.[154][155]

In a Fairfax/Ipsos poll released on 19 October 2015, the Coalition led Labor for the first time since March 2014. Turnbull also substantially led Shorten as preferred Prime Minister.

A 4–6 December 2015 Newspoll conducted from Friday to Sunday (with the 2015 North Sydney by-election occurring on the Saturday) saw a continued 53-47 two-party vote to the government, however Turnbull's personal ratings were significantly lessened, with personal approval down eight to 52 percent and personal disapproval up eight to 30 percent.[156] Some News Limited journalists opined Turnbull's honeymoon to be over.[157][158][159]

By March 2016, Labor and the Coalition were back to 50-50 in Newspoll results.[31] In April, Turnbull lost his lead over Labor, and the Coalition trailed 51-49[153]

By-elections

Canning

Turnbull challenged Abbott for the Liberal leadership in the week leading to the 2015 Canning by-election. The by-election was held on 19 September, days after the Turnbull Government took office. Liberal candidate Andrew Hastie retained the seat for the Liberals, despite having to rely on preferences after a substantial primary (−4.15%) and two-party (−6.55%) swing away from the Liberals. Double-digit swings did eventuate among the northern suburban booths. The Canning Liberal margin was reduced from safe to marginal status.[160]

Turnbull-supporter Arthur Sinodinos told the ABC's Insiders programme that the swing was a better result than the party expected at the beginning of the campaign.[160] Tony Abbott told 2GB radio that Liberal Party internal polling in fact showed the Party was going to end up with 57 per cent of the two-party preferred vote: "One of the reasons why the ballot had to be brought on the week it was brought on by the proponents of a ballot was because a strong result in Canning which is what we were going to get, would have put paid to this notion that somehow I was unelectable because of the polls," he said.[161] While public polling suggested a tighter result, The West Australian reported that Liberal Party federal director Brian Loughnane had polling predicting a 57-43 split in Canning before Mr Abbott lost the leadership.[162]

North Sydney

The resignation of outgoing Treasurer Joe Hockey triggered the 2015 North Sydney by-election. The 5 December by-election was won by Liberal candidate Trent Zimmerman, a controversially pre-selected former Hockey staffer, with a 48.2 percent primary vote after a larger than predicted 12.8 percent swing against the Turnbull Coalition Government. This was only the second time in North Sydney since federation that the successful Liberal candidate did not obtain a majority of the primary vote and had to rely on preferences after a large double-digit primary vote swing − more than triple that of the 2015 Canning by-election − all in the absence of a Labor candidate, whom have never been successful in the safe Liberal seat.[163]

The Liberal two-candidate vote of 60.2 percent against independent Stephen Ruff compares to the previous election vote of 65.9 percent against Labor.[163] The reduction of 5.7 percent cannot be considered a "two-party/candidate preferred swing" − when a major party is absent, preference flows to both major parties does not take place, resulting in asymmetric preference flows.[164][165]

Amid claims of "widespread discontent for the Liberal pre-selection factional fix of Trent Zimmerman" and in the absence of a Labor candidate, Hockey's predecessor, former independent North Sydney MP Ted Mack, announced he would steer the campaign of independent candidate Stephen Ruff, who has the support of some now-disgruntled Liberal supporters. Mack stated "I've never seen an election where a Liberal candidate is so disliked by such a lot of Liberal members and Liberal voters". Leaked emails show potential voters were sent registration forms at 7:30 pm on a Thursday and asked to signal their availability, with the cut-off for replying by noon the next day, and additionally, advance notice of the e-mail and cut-off was provided to Zimmerman's backers. It was claimed up to 550 Liberal branch members were unable to vote after the Liberal state executive pushed through a shortened pre-selection process to select Zimmerman, who is also head of the body that sets the rules for Liberal pre-selections, which has been claimed as a "complete conflict of interest". Mack also claimed that much of the electorate was angered that Hockey, who penned the "age of entitlement" speech, had forced a $1-million by-election within a year of the next Australian federal election, with the expectation of becoming the next Ambassador of Australia to the United States.[166][167][168] The expectation was confirmed on 8 December 2015.[169] In the last week of the campaign, the Liberal party room suffered from the defection of Ian Macfarlane to the National party room with accompanying demands for additional Nationals cabinet representation, and additionally, the Mal Brough James Ashby diary controversy deepened,[170][171] and combined with the unexpected by-election swing and Turnbull's significantly lessened personal ratings in the concurrent December Newspoll, some News Limited journalists opined Turnbull's honeymoon to be over.[157][158][159]

See also

References

  1. 1 2 "Liberal leadership: Malcolm Turnbull's press conference announcing challenge to Tony Abbott". ABC News (Australia). 15 September 2015. Retrieved 2 November 2015.
  2. ↑ Kenny, Mark; Cox, Lisa (20 September 2015). "Malcolm Turnbull cabinet reshuffle: Women, young MPs the big winners in '21st century' team". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 2 November 2015.
  3. ↑ "Turnbull follows Abbott on climate, marriage". Sky News (Australia). 15 September 2015. Retrieved 2 November 2015.
  4. ↑ Interview: Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull on ABCC legislation, tax reform, negative gearing; 7.30; abc.net.au; 21/3/16
  5. ↑ http://www.aph.gov.au/Senators_and_Members/Parliamentarian?MPID=885
  6. ↑ http://www.abc.net.au/news/2008-09-16/turnbull-victorious-in-leadership-spill/511512
  7. ↑ "Nelson wins Liberal leadership". The Sydney Morning Herald. 29 November 2007. Retrieved 29 November 2007.
  8. ↑ http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/malcolm-turnbull-ousts-brendan-nelson-as-liberal-party-leader/2008/09/16/1221330790547.html
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  10. ↑ Leadership speculation at fever pitch as Arthur Sinodinos calls PM's judgment into question; 5 February 2015
  11. ↑ Two WA backbenchers call for a spill against Prime Minister Tony Abbott; ABC; 7.30, Transcript 6 Feb 2015
  12. ↑ Probyn, Andrew; Butterly, Nick (6 February 2015). "Prime Minister to fight leadership spill motion by WA Liberal MP". The West Australian. Retrieved 6 February 2015.
  13. ↑ Griffiths, Emma; Glenday, James (9 February 2015). "Tony Abbott keeps leadership of Liberal Party but some supporters fear he is doomed". ABC News (Austrlaia). Retrieved 9 February 2015.
  14. ↑ Leslie, Tim (9 February 2015). "Liberal leadership spill: as it happened". ABC News (Australia). Retrieved 14 September 2015.
  15. ↑ "Liberal leadership spill: as it happened - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)". Abc.net.au. Retrieved 2015-09-23.
  16. ↑ Edmund Tadros (2015-02-24). "Coalition recovers in polls, Tony Abbott remains unpopular". afr.com. Retrieved 2015-09-23.
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  36. ↑ http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-19402-137.htm
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  38. ↑ Warning to quit sniping over Islam - The Australian 9 December 2015
  39. ↑ Does Australia want Tony Abbott to stay in Parliament? - SMH 9 December 2015
  40. ↑ Tony Abbott: I would have won the next election - SMH 9 December 2015
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  48. 1 2 3 4 South Australian Liberal Jamie Briggs quits as Cities and Built Environment Minister in Malcolm Turnbull Government: The Advertiser 29 December 2015
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  50. ↑ Jamie Briggs and Mal Brough: Frontbench upheaval as Liberal ministers resign: News.com.au 30 December 2015
  51. ↑ Jamie Briggs, an ambitious MP who overstepped the mark: SMH 30 December 2015
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  55. ↑ Jamie Briggs, Mal Brough resign from the Turnbull ministry: The Australian Financial Review 29 December 2015
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  90. ↑ Morrison builds case for GST reform; Paul Kelly; The Australian; January 25, 2016
  91. ↑ GST increase not being taken to election by Malcolm Turnbull; abc.net.au; 16 Feb 2016
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  96. ↑ Malcolm Turnbull seeks to calm controversy on first overseas trip as PM; smh.com.au; October 18, 2015
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  98. ↑ Australian farmers prepare to reap the benefits as China trade deal takes effect; abc.net.au; 18 Dec 2015
  99. ↑ Trade deal with India on track: minister; sbs.com.au; 29 October 2015
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  138. ↑ Safe Schools - Malcolm Turnbull forced to act on funding for controversial sex-ed program: Daily Telegraph 18 March 2016
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  141. ↑ Education Minister Simon Birmingham unveils sweeping changes to Safe Schools program: AdelaideNow 16 March 2016
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  145. ↑ Senate Reform - Why Bother Forcing Below-the-line Votes to be Full Preferential? (outdated): Antony Green ABC 25 February 2016
  146. ↑ Senate Electoral Reform Bill Abandons Election Night Senate Counting (outdated): Antony Green ABC 22 February 2016
  147. ↑ Would Electoral Reform Deliver the Coalition a Senate Majority at a Double Dissolution?: Antony Green ABC 17 February 2016
  148. ↑ The Origin of Senate Group Ticket Voting, and it didn't come from the Major Parties: Antony Green ABC 23 September 2015
  149. ↑ The Likely Political Consequences of Proposed Changes to the Senate's Electoral System: Antony Green ABC 24 June 2015
  150. ↑ By Accident Rather than Design - a Brief History of the Senate's Electoral System: Antony Green ABC 10 June 2015
  151. ↑ All Senate reform articles: Antony Green ABC
  152. ↑ Electoral laws passed after marathon Parliament sitting: ABC 18 March 2016
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  156. ↑ Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition - The Poll Bludger 7 December 2015
  157. 1 2 The honeymoon is over: David Speers/Switzer 3 December 2015
  158. 1 2 Honeymoon over for Malcolm Turnbull: Herald Sun 6 December 2015
  159. 1 2 Is the Turnbull honeymoon over?: Courier Mail 7 December 2015
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  162. ↑ Probyn, Andrew (30 September 2015). "Abbott says Canning win a problem for plotters". The West Australian. Retrieved 2 November 2015.
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  165. ↑ An Example of Non-Monotonicity and Opportunites for Tactical Voting at an Australian Election: Antony Green ABC 4 May 2011
  166. ↑ Aston, Heath (10 November 2015). "Ted Mack working to install an independent in Joe Hockey's old seat". The Age. Retrieved December 7, 2015.
  167. ↑ Robertson, James (26 October 2015). "North Sydney preselection for Joe Hockey's safe seat under cloud of a political fix". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 7 December 2015.
  168. ↑ Hartcher, Peter (31 October 2015). "Liberals thumb their noses at party reform". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 7 December 2015.
  169. ↑ Joe Hockey announced as Australia's next ambassador to the United States: SMH 8 December 2015
  170. ↑ Liberal MP Ian Macfarlane defects to Nationals in shock move against Malcolm Turnbull: SMH 3 December 2015
  171. ↑ Turnbull ducks talk on Brough's future: The Advertiser 8 December 2015
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