Next Australian federal election

Next Australian federal election

On or before 14 January 2017

All 150 seats in the Australian House of Representatives 76 seats needed for a majority 40 or 76[1] seats in the Australian Senate Opinion polls   Leader Malcolm Turnbull Bill Shorten Party Liberal/National coalition Labor Leader since 14 September 2015 13 October 2013 Leader's seat Wentworth Maribyrnong Last election 90 seats 45.55% 55 seats 33.38% Seats needed 21 2013 TPP 53.5% 46.5% TPP polling 50% 50% PPM polling 47% 28%   Leader Richard Di Natale Clive Palmer Party Greens Palmer United Leader since 6 May 2015 April 2013 Leader's seat Senator for Victoria Fairfax Last election 1 seat 8.65% 1 seat 5.49% Seats needed 75 75   Leader Bob Katter Party Katter's Australian Leader since 3 June 2011 Leader's seat Kennedy Last election 1 seat 1.04% Seats needed 75

Incumbent Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull Liberal–National coalition

The next Australian federal election will elect members of the 45th Parliament of Australia. The election will be called following the dissolution or expiry of the 44th Parliament, and must be held on or before 14 January 2017. However, no federal election has ever been held in January, making a 2016 election more likely.

Elections in Australia use a full-preferential voting system in one vote, one value single-member seats for the 150-member lower house, the House of Representatives, and a single transferable vote system of proportional representation in the 76-member upper house, the Senate. Voting is compulsory.

By Westminster convention, but subject to Constitutional constraints, the decision as to the type of election and its date is the prime minister's, who advises the Governor-General to set the process in motion by dissolving the House of Representatives and issuing writs for election.

Election date

Section 13 of the consitution requires that in half-Senate elections the election of state senators must take place within one year before the places become vacant. Since the terms of half the senators end on 30 June 2017, the writs for a half-Senate election cannot be issued earlier than 1 July 2016, and the earliest possible date for a simultaneous House/half-Senate election is 6 August 2016.^[2] There is no constitutional requirement for simultaneous elections for the Senate and the House of Representatives, and there are precedents for separate elections; however, governments and the electorate have long preferred that elections for the two Houses take place simultaneously.

A House-only election can be called at any time during a parliamentary term. Whether held simultaneously with a Senate election or separately, an election for the House of Representatives must be held on or before 14 January 2017,^[2] which is calculated under provisions of the constitution and the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 (CEA). Section 28 of the constitution provides that the term of a House expires three years from the first sitting of the House, unless it is dissolved earlier. The last federal election was held on 7 September 2013. The 44th Parliament of Australia opened on 12 November 2013^[3] and its term would expire on 11 November 2016.^[4] Writs for an election can be issued up to ten days after a dissolution or expiry of the House.^[5] Up to 27 days can be allowed for nominations,^[6] and the actual election can be set for a maximum of 31 days after close of nominations,^[7] resulting in the latest election date of Saturday, 14 January 2017.

A double dissolution cannot take place within six months before the date of the expiry of the House of Representatives.^[8] That means any double dissolution must be granted by 11 May 2016. Allowing for the same stages indicated above, the last possible date for a double dissolution election is 16 July 2016.^[2]

On 2 November 2015, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull stated: "I would say around September–October [2016] is when you should expect the next election to be."^[9] However in December 2015, the ABC reported that some "senior Liberal MPs" had been seeking an election as early as March 2016.^[10] An election held at this time would require a separate half-Senate election to be held in late 2016 or early 2017 (unless a double dissolution were to occur in advance of the March 2016 poll).^[11]

On 21 March 2016, Turnbull announced that the parliament would be recalled for both houses to sit on 18 April to consider for a third time the bills to reinstate the Australian Building and Construction Commission (ABCC). Turnbull also said that if the Senate failed to pass the bill, then there would be a double dissolution of parliament and an election would be held on 2 July. The delivery of the federal budget was also brought forward from 10 May to 3 May.^[1]

Double dissolution triggers

There are now four bills which meet the requirements of Section 57 of the constitution for a double dissolution.^[12] Any or all of these bills could be named in the prime minister's advice to the Governor-General.

• 18 June 2014: Clean Energy Finance Corporation (Abolition) Bill 2013 [No. 2]
• 17 August 2015: Fair Work (Registered Organisations) Amendment Bill 2014 [No. 2]
• 18 April 2016: Building and Construction Industry (Consequential and Transitional Provisions) Bill 2013 (No. 2)
• 18 April 2016: Building and Construction Industry (Improving Productivity) Bill 2013 [No. 2]

The Senate blocked the government's ABCC legislation on 18 April, creating the third and fourth double dissolution election triggers. The Prime Minister confirmed the following day that, following the 2016 federal budget set for 3 May, he would advise the Governor-General to call a double dissolution election on 2 July.^[13]

Constitutional and legal provisions

The constitutional and legal provisions which impact on the choice of election dates include:^[14]

• Section 12 of the constitution says: "The Governor of any State may cause writs to be issued for the election of Senators for that State"
• Section 13 of the constitution provides that the election of Senators shall be held in the period of twelve months before the places become vacant.
• Section 28 of the constitution says: "Every House of Representatives shall continue for three years from the first sitting of the House, and no longer, but may be sooner dissolved by the Governor-General."^[15] Since the 44th Parliament opened on 12 November 2013, it will expire on 11 November 2016.^[16]
• Section 32 of the constitution says: "The writs shall be issued within ten days from the expiry of a House of Representatives or from the proclamation of a dissolution thereof." Ten days after 11 November 2016 is 21 November 2016.
• Section 156 (1) of the CEA says: "The date fixed for the nomination of the candidates shall not be less than 10 days nor more than 27 days after the date of the writ".^[6] Twenty-seven days after 21 November 2016 is 18 December 2016.
• Section 157 of the CEA says: "The date fixed for the polling shall not be less than 23 days nor more than 31 days after the date of nomination".^[7] Thirty-one days after 18 December 2016 is 18 January 2017, a Wednesday.
• Section 158 of the CEA says: "The day fixed for the polling shall be a Saturday".^[17] The Saturday before 18 January 2017 is 14 January 2017. This is therefore the latest possible date for the election. However, it is unlikely that the election would be held this late, as schools would be closed for summer holidays at this time. Governments tend to avoid holding elections during school holidays, since schools are often used as polling places.^[18]

Background

The Coalition won the 2013 federal election with 90 of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives, on a swing of 17 seats or 3.6 points on a two-party basis, defeating the six-year Labor government. Labor holds 55 seats, and crossbenchers hold the remaining five.

The Abbott government was sworn in to office on 18 September 2013.^[19]

Kevin Rudd resigned as Labor's leader following the defeat of the party. Chris Bowen became the interim leader in the approach to a leadership election. Two candidates, Anthony Albanese and Bill Shorten, declared their candidacy; Shorten was declared the winner on 13 October 2013.

As a result of lost ballot papers, on 18 February 2014 the High Court of Australia, sitting as the Court of Disputed Returns, ordered a new half-Senate election for Western Australia, which was held on 5 April 2014.

Senator John Madigan resigned from the Democratic Labour Party and became an independent Senator in September 2014, citing long-term internal party tensions.^[20]

On 24 November 2014, Tasmanian Senator Jacqui Lambie resigned from the Palmer United Party and on 13 March 2015, Queensland Senator Glenn Lazarus also announced his resignation from the Palmer United Party; both continue to sit as independents.

On 14 September 2015, the incumbent Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, was challenged for the leadership of the Liberal Party and thus the prime ministership by Malcolm Turnbull, the Minister for Communications. Turnbull won the vote 54–44 and on 15 September was sworn in as prime minister, starting the Turnbull government.

Ian Macfarlane attempted to defect from the Liberal party room to the National party room with accompanying demands for additional Nationals cabinet representation, and the Mal Brough–James Ashby diary controversy deepened in the last week of the campaign.^[21][22] Along with the unexpected by-election swing and Turnbull's significantly lessened personal ratings in the concurrent December Newspoll, some News Limited journalists claimed that Malcolm Turnbull's honeymoon was over.^{[23][24][25][26][27]}

The Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) has listed many candidates throughout Australia for the next election, with further candidate announcements to be made in 2016.^[28]

Liberal Senator Michael Ronaldson announced on 18 December 2015 that he would leave parliament before the next election, after moving from the outer ministry in the Abbott government to the backbench in the Turnbull government. He resigned on 28 February 2016, and the casual vacancy was filled by James Paterson on 9 March 2016.^[29]

Labor Senator Joe Bullock announced on 1 March 2016 that he would be resigning from the Senate after the autumn sittings of parliament, citing—among other reasons—his opposition to same-sex marriage being at odds with the Labor Party's platform to bind its members in a supporting vote after 2019.^[30] Bullock tendered his resignation to Senate President Stephen Parry on 13 April 2016.^[31][32] The casual vacancy was filled by Patrick Dodson on 28 April 2016.^[33]

2016 Senate reforms

Following the 2013 election, the Abbott government announced it would investigate changing the electoral system for the Senate. On 22 February 2016, the Turnbull government announced several proposed changes.^[34] The changes had the support of the Liberal/National Coalition, the Australian Greens, and Nick Xenophon − a three-vote majority.^[35] The Senate reform legislation passed both houses of the Parliament of Australia on 18 March 2016 after the Senate sat all night debating the bill.^[36]

The changes abolished group voting tickets and introduced optional preferential voting, along with party logos on the ballot paper. The ballot paper continues to have a box for each party above a heavy line, with each party's candidates in a column below that party's box below the solid line. Previously, a voter could either mark a single box above the line, which triggered the party's group voting ticket (a pre-assigned sequence of preferences), or place a number in every box below the line to assign their own preferences. As a result of the changes, voters may assign their preferences for parties above the line (numbering as many boxes as they wish), or individual candidates below the line, and are not required to fill all of the boxes. Both above and below the line voting are now optional preferential voting. For above the line, voters will be instructed to write at least their first six preferences, however, a "savings provision" will still count the ballot if less than six were given. As a result, fewer votes are expected to be classed as informal, however, more ballots will "exhaust" as a result (i.e. some votes are not counted towards electing any candidate). For below the line, voters will be required to write at least their first 12 preferences. Voters will be free to continue numbering as many preferences as they like beyond the minimum number specified. Another savings provision will allow ballot papers with at least 6 below the line preferences to be formal, catering for people who confuse the above and below the line instructions; an additional change to the savings provision will also accept below the line votes with a higher number of sequence errors than previously, treating the sequence as stopping at the first error (missed or repeated numbers).

ABC psephologist Antony Green wrote several publications on various aspects of the proposed Senate reforms.^{[37][38][39][40][41][42]}

By-elections

Rudd resigned from parliament on 22 November 2013, triggering the 2014 Griffith by-election, which was held on 8 February, with Terri Butler retaining the seat for Labor.

On 21 July 2015, Liberal Don Randall died, triggering the 2015 Canning by-election, which was held on 19 September. Andrew Hastie retained the seat for the Liberals, having to rely on preferences after suffering a substantial swing to the Labor candidate.^[43]

Joe Hockey was not retained as Treasurer in Turnbull's cabinet, and announced his resignation from parliament shortly afterwards, triggering the 2015 North Sydney by-election which was held on 5 December. The seat was retained for the Liberal Party by Trent Zimmerman. Zimmerman won with 48.2% of the primary vote after a larger-than-predicted 12.8-point swing against the Turnbull Coalition government. This was only the second time in North Sydney since federation that the successful Liberal candidate failed to obtain a majority of the primary vote and had to rely on preferences. Zimmerman faced a double-digit primary vote swing − more than triple that of the 2015 Canning by-election − despite the absence of a Labor candidate. Labor has never been successful in the safe Liberal seat. The Liberal two-candidate vote of 60.2% against independent Stephen Ruff compares with the previous election vote of 65.9% against Labor.^[44] The reduction of 5.7 points cannot be considered a "two-party/candidate preferred swing" − when a major party is absent, preference flows to both major parties do not take place, resulting in asymmetric preference flows.^[45][46]

Redistributions and name changes

In November 2014 the Australian Electoral Commission announced that a redistribution of electoral boundaries in New South Wales and Western Australia would be undertaken before the next election. A determination of the states' membership entitlements under the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 means that Western Australia's entitlement will increase from 15 to 16 seats, and New South Wales' will decrease from 48 to 47 seats. A redistribution will also occur in the Australian Capital Territory, as seven years have elapsed since the last time the ACT's boundaries were reviewed.^[47] On 16 November 2015, the AEC announced that a redistribution of electoral boundaries in Tasmania would be deferred until after the next election, as the Electoral Act provides that a redistribution shall not commence where there is less than a year until the expiry of the House of Representatives (ie., 11 November 2016).^[48]

In October 2015 the AEC announced plans to abolish the seat of Hunter. Electors in the north of Hunter will join New England, while the roughly 40% remainder will become part of Paterson, where the Liberal margin is set to be notionally reduced from 9.8 to just 0.5 points as a result. Hunter was first contested at the inaugural 1901 federal election; electorate naming guidelines state "Every effort should be made to retain the names of original federal divisions".^[49] The commission proposes renaming Charlton to Hunter, and in honour of deceased Prime Minister Gough Whitlam, renaming Throsby to Whitlam.^[50][51]

The Division of Fraser in the ACT will also be renamed Division of Fenner, to honour the late scientist Professor Frank Fenner. The name Fraser will be used for a future division in Victoria, to be named after the former Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser.^[52]

Retiring MPs and senators

Members and senators who have chosen not to renominate for the next election are as follows:

Labor

Name	Electorate	Retirement announced
Anna Burke MP	Chisholm, Vic	16 December 2015[53]
Laurie Ferguson MP	Werriwa, NSW	12 August 2014[54]
Gary Gray MP	Brand, WA	16 February 2016[55]
Alan Griffin MP	Bruce, Vic	10 February 2015[56]
Jill Hall MP	Shortland, NSW	28 February 2016[57]
Alannah MacTiernan MP	Perth, WA	12 February 2016[58]
Melissa Parke MP	Fremantle, WA	22 January 2016[59]
Bernie Ripoll MP	Oxley, Qld	14 April 2015[60]
Kelvin Thomson MP	Wills, Vic	10 November 2015[61]
Senator Joe Ludwig	Queensland	9 March 2015[62]
Senator Jan McLucas	Queensland	5 April 2015[63]

Liberal

Name	Electorate	Retirement announced
Bob Baldwin MP	Paterson, NSW	16 April 2016[64]
Bruce Billson MP	Dunkley, Vic	24 November 2015[65]
Andrew Robb MP	Goldstein, Vic	10 February 2016[66]
Philip Ruddock MP	Berowra, NSW	8 February 2016[67]
Andrew Southcott MP	Boothby, SA	4 September 2015[68]
Sharman Stone MP	Murray, Vic	26 March 2016[69]
Senator Bill Heffernan	New South Wales	19 February 2016[70]

Liberal National

Name	Electorate	Retirement announced
Mal Brough MP	Fisher, Qld	26 February 2016[71]
Teresa Gambaro MP	Brisbane, Qld	9 March 2016[72]
Ian Macfarlane MP	Groom, Qld	15 February 2016[73]
Bruce Scott MP	Maranoa, Qld	3 August 2015[74]
Warren Truss MP	Wide Bay, Qld	11 February 2016[75][76][77]

National

Name	Electorate	Retirement announced
John Cobb MP	Calare, NSW	27 February 2016[78]

Post-redistribution pendulum

Candidates

Opinion polls

Two-party-preferred vote.

Primary vote.

Graphs are a compilation of aggregate data from voting intention in the below list of all opinion polling for the next Australian federal election. A moving average is shown in a solid line.

See also

• Australian federal election, 2013
• Post-election pendulum for the Australian federal election, 2013
• Political parties in Australia

Notes

References

1. "Malcolm Turnbull recalls Parliament for April 18 sitting ahead of early election". The Sydney Morning Herald. 21 March 2016. Retrieved 21 March 2016.
2. Green, Antony (12 November 2013). "Timetable for the Next Federal Election". abc.net.au. Retrieved 13 November 2013.
3. 2013 Parliamentary Sittings: APH
4. See Anthony Green's Election Blog
5. Section 32 of the Constitution
6. Commonwealth Electoral Act, s. 156
7. Commonwealth Electoral Act, s. 157
8. Section 57 of the Constitution
9. Kenny, Mark (2 November 2015). "Malcolm Turnbull's year of living courageously". The Age. Fairax Media.
10. "What are the implications for Briggs, Brough and Turnbull?". ABC The Drum. Retrieved 4 January 2016.
11. Green, Antony. "The Turnbull Government's Options for a 2016 Election". ABC News. Retrieved 4 January 2016.
12. Bills laid aside or negatived, their history and status as possibly meeting the requirements of section 57 of the Constitution (44th Parliament - 1st and 2nd sessions). Retrieved 20 April 2016
13. Malcolm Turnbull confirms ABCC will trigger double dissolution election: ABC 20 April 2016
14. Rob Lundie, Australian elections timetable, Parliament of Australia
15. Commonwealth Of Australia Constitution Act – Section 28
16. The reason it does not expire on 12 November 2016 is because 12 November 2013 was "Day 1" of the current House, not "Day 0". Therefore 12 November 2016 would be "Year 3, Day 1"; if the House sat on this day, it would be serving for longer than its 3-year mandate. Therefore its term would expire on the previous day. See Anthony Green's Election Blog
17. Commonwealth Electoral Act, s. 158
18. Possible federal election dates
19. "Abbott's team to be sworn in next week". theage.com.au. 9 September 2013. Retrieved 13 September 2013.
20. Senator Madigan cuts ties with Democratic Labour Party, will serve out term as independent: ABC 4 September 2014
21. Liberal MP Ian Macfarlane defects to Nationals in shock move against Malcolm Turnbull: SMH 3 December 2015
22. Malcolm Turnbull suddenly has a lot of problems: Business Insider 3 December 2015
23. The honeymoon is over: David Speers/Switzer 3 December 2015
24. Turnbull’s ‘honeymoon’ coming to an end: Courier Mail 3 December 2015
25. Honeymoon over for Malcolm Turnbull: Herald Sun 6 December 2015
26. Is the Turnbull honeymoon over?: Courier Mail 7 December 2015
27. Turnbull ducks talk on Brough's future: The Advertiser 8 December 2015
28. 2016 NXT candidates: NXT.org.au
29. "Mr James Paterson was appointed to the @ausenate seat vacated by the Hon Michael Ronaldson". Twitter. @VicParliament. Retrieved 9 March 2016.
30. "Joe Bullock, Labor senator, announces retirement from politics over party position on same-sex marriage". ABC News. 1 March 2016. Retrieved 1 March 2016.
31. "Bullock sends a history lesson". 15 April 2016. Retrieved 16 April 2016.
32. http://www.aph.gov.au/Senators_and_Members/Parliamentarian?MPID=243237
33. "Pat Dodson elected WA's newest senator". ABC News. 28 April 2016. Retrieved 29 April 2016.
34. Senate election reforms announced, including preferential voting above the line, Australian Broadcasting Corporation, 22 February 2016
35. Explainer: what changes to the Senate voting system are being proposed?, Stephen Morey, The Conversation, 23 February 2016
36. Electoral laws passed after marathon Parliament sitting: ABC 18 March 2016
37. Senate Reform - Below the Line Optional Preferential Voting Included in Government's Legislation: Antony Green ABC 2 March 2016
38. Would Electoral Reform Deliver the Coalition a Senate Majority at a Double Dissolution?: Antony Green ABC 17 February 2016
39. The Origin of Senate Group Ticket Voting, and it didn't come from the Major Parties: Antony Green ABC 23 September 2015
40. The Likely Political Consequences of Proposed Changes to the Senate's Electoral System: Antony Green ABC 24 June 2015
41. By Accident Rather than Design - a Brief History of the Senate's Electoral System: Antony Green ABC 10 June 2015
42. All Senate reform articles: Antony Green ABC
43. Liberal and Labor parties hail success of campaigns: ABC 20 September 2015
44. 2015 North Sydney by-election: Antony Green ABC
45. "A Comment on the Size of the Port Adelaide Swing, Antony Green". Blogs.abc.net.au. 13 February 2012. Retrieved 2012-07-26.
46. An Example of Non-Monotonicity and Opportunites for Tactical Voting at an Australian Election: Antony Green ABC 4 May 2011
47. "Determination of membership entitlement to the House of Representatives". Australian Electoral Commission. 13 November 2014. Retrieved 14 November 2014.
48. "Deferral of the redistribution of federal electoral boundaries in Tasmania". Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 November 2015.
49. Australian Electoral Commission, Guidelines for Naming Federal Electoral Divisions. Retrieved 16 November 2015
50. Australian Electoral Commission to abolish Federal NSW seat of Hunter: ABC 16 October 2015
51. Draft federal redistribution of New South Wales: Poll Bludger
52. AEC: Division of Fenner. Retrieved 21 April 2016
53. Stephanie Anderson (16 December 2015). "Former speaker Anna Burke calls it quits, will not recontest seat at next election".
54. Eric Kontos (12 August 2014). "A true blue Labor Party soldier, Laurie Ferguson eyes retirement".
55. ABC News, 16 February 2016
56. Willingham, Richard (10 February 2015). "Former minister Alan Griffin to leave politics". The Age. Retrieved 10 February 2015.
57. Carr, Matt (28 February 2016). "Federal election: Shortland MP Jill Hall stands aside". Newcastle Herald. Retrieved 28 February 2015.
58. "Alannah MacTiernan to quit federal politics at next election". ABC News. 12 February 2016. Retrieved 15 February 2016.
59. Wright, Shane (22 January 2016). "Fremantle MP in surprise retirement". The West Australian. Retrieved 22 January 2016.
60. "Federal ALP MP Bernie Ripoll's retirement opens door for Brisbane City Councillor Milton Dick". ABC News. 14 April 2015. Retrieved 14 April 2015.
61. "Politics Live: November 10, 2015". Sydney Morning Herald. 10 November 2015.
62. "Queensland senator Joe Ludwig to resign at next election". ABC Online. 10 March 2015.
63. "Queensland Labor senator Jan McLucas loses preselection battle to contest next Federal election". ABC Online. 5 April 2015.
64. "Baldwin decides to exit federal politics". news.com.au (News Corp Australia). 16 April 2016. Retrieved 16 April 2016.
65. "Former small business minister Bruce Billson to retire at next federal election". Nine News (Nine Network). 24 November 2015. Retrieved 24 November 2015.
66. "Andrew Robb and Warren Truss to quit politics". Financial Review. 10 February 2016. Retrieved 10 February 2016.
67. "Philip Ruddock to retire from politics". The Australian. 8 February 2016. Retrieved 8 February 2016.
68. "Liberal MP Andrew Southcott to stand down at next election". The Guardian. 4 September 2015. Retrieved 4 September 2015.
69. "Sharman Stone: Liberal MP for Murray retires from politics after 20 years". ABC News. 26 March 2016. Retrieved 26 March 2016.
70. ABC News. Retrieved 19 February 2016
71. "Mal Brough says he will not contest next election as AFP inquiry continues". The Guardian. 26 February 2016. Retrieved 26 February 2016.
72. "Teresa Gambaro won't recontest election". SBS News. 9 March 2016. Retrieved 9 March 2016.
73. "Ian Macfarlane won't contest 2016 election". Sky News. 15 February 2016. Retrieved 15 February 2016.
74. Arthur, Penelope (3 August 2015). "Bruce Scott to quit federal parliament". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 3 August 2015.
75. Murphy, Katharine (11 February 2016). "Barnaby Joyce wins Nationals leadership, Fiona Nash named deputy". The Guardian (Australia). Retrieved 11 February 2016.
76. Gartrell, Adam (11 February 2016). "Parliament pays tribute to retiring deputy PM Warren Truss ahead of Barnaby Joyce elevation". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 11 February 2016.
77. Keany, Francis (11 February 2016). "Barnaby Joyce elected unopposed as new Nationals leader". ABC News (Australia). Retrieved 11 February 2016.
78. Murray Nicholls (27 February 2016). "BREAKING NEWS: Calare MP John Cobb to retire at federal election". Sky News. Retrieved 27 February 2016.