New South Wales state election, 2019

New South Wales state election, 2019
New South Wales
23 March 2019
All 93 seats in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly
and 21 (of the 42) seats in the New South Wales Legislative Council
47 Assembly seats needed for a majority
 
Leader Mike Baird Luke Foley no leader
Party Liberal/National Coalition Labor Greens
Leader since 17 April 2014 5 January 2015
Leader's seat Manly Auburn
Last election 45.63%, 54 seats 34.08%, 34 seats 10.29%, 3 seats
Current seats 53 seats 34 seats 3 seats
Seats needed Steady Increase 13 Increase 44
TPP @ 2015 54.32% 45.68% –
TPP polling 59.5% 40.5% –
BP polling 72.0% 28.0% –
Incumbent Premier

Mike Baird
Liberal/National coalition

The next New South Wales state election is scheduled to be held in 2019 to elect the 58th Parliament of New South Wales. The incumbent centre-right Liberal/National Coalition, currently led by Premier Mike Baird, will attempt to win a third term and will be challenged by the centre-left Australian Labor Party opposition, currently led by Luke Foley.

New South Wales has compulsory voting, with an optional preferential ballot in single-member seats for the lower house and single transferable vote with optional preferential above-the-line voting in the proportionally represented upper house. The election will conducted by the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).

Date

The parliament has constitutionally fixed four year terms.

Previous election

Lower house

At the 2015 election, the Liberal/National coalition retained government with a reduced majority of 54 seats from 69 seats in the 2011 election. However, during that time the Coalition were reduced to a further 61 seats due to ICAC proceedings that expelled 8 MPs from the Liberal Party. The Labor party gained 11 seats with a total of 34 seats. The Greens gained a record three seats. Independents Greg Piper and Alex Greenwich both respectively retained their seats.

Polling

Legislative Assembly polling
Date Firm Primary vote TPP vote
LIB NAT ALP GRN OTH L/NP ALP
29 Jan – 1 Feb 2016 Roy Morgan[1] 52% 24.5% 14.5% 9% 59.5% 40.5%
4-7 Dec 2015 Roy Morgan[2] 52% 22.5% 15% 10.5% 60.5% 39.5%
16 October 2015 Roy Morgan[3] 54% 24.5% 13.5% 8% 60.5% 39.5%
September 2015 Newspoll[4] 47% 33% 11% 9% 56% 44%
28–31 Aug 2015 Roy Morgan[5] 49%* 25% 17.5% 8.5% 57% 43%
25 Jun 2015 Roy Morgan[6] 49.5%* 27.5% 14% 9% 57% 43%
27 May 2015 Roy Morgan[7] 53.5%* 29.5% 12% 5% 58.5% 41.5%
15 April 2015 Roy Morgan[8] 47.5%* 31.0% 12.5% 9.0% 54.5% 45.5%
28 March 2015 election 35.1% 10.5% 34.1% 10.3% 9.9% 54.3% 45.7%
23–26 March 2015 Newspoll[9] 35% 9% 34% 11% 11% 55% 45%[10]
* Indicates a combined Liberal/National primary vote.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here
Better Premier and satisfaction polling*
Date Firm Better Premier Baird Foley
Baird Foley Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
29 Jan – 1 Feb 2016 Roy Morgan 72% 28% not asked
4-7 Dec 2015 Roy Morgan 72.5% 27.5% not asked
16 October 2015 Roy Morgan 74.5% 25.5% not asked
September 2015 Newspoll 57% 19% 63% 24% 35% 37%
25 Jun 2015 Roy Morgan 70% 30% not asked
27 May 2015 Roy Morgan 70.5% 29.5% not asked
15 Apr 2015 Roy Morgan 68% 32% not asked
28 March 2015 election – – – – – – –
23–26 Mar 2015 Newspoll 54% 27% 57% 29% 38% 37%
* Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither".
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here

See also

References

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