Australian federal election, 1998

3 October 1998 (1998-10-03)

All 148 seats in the Australian House of Representatives 75 seats were needed for a majority in the House 40 (of the 76) seats in the Australian Senate

	First party	Second party

Leader	John Howard	Kim Beazley
Party	Liberal/National coalition	Labor
Leader since	30 January 1995 (1995-01-30)	19 March 1996 (1996-03-19)
Leader's seat	Bennelong	Brand
Last election	94 seats	49 seats
Seats won	80 seats	67 seats
Seat change	14	18
Popular vote	5,413,431	5,630,409
Percentage	49.02%	50.98%
Swing	4.61	4.61

Prime Minister before election

John Howard
Liberal/National coalition

Elected Prime Minister

John Howard
Liberal/National coalition

Federal elections were held in Australia on 3 October 1998. All 148 seats in the House of Representatives and 40 seats in the 76-member Senate were up for election. The incumbent Liberal Party of Australia led by Prime Minister of Australia John Howard and coalition partner the National Party of Australia led by Tim Fischer defeated the opposition Australian Labor Party led by Kim Beazley.

Results

Main article: Full results for the Australian federal election, 1998

**House of Reps (IRV) – 1998–2001 – Turnout 94.99% (CV) — Informal 3.78%**
Party		Votes	%	Swing	Seats	Change
	Australian Labor Party	4,454,306	40.10	+1.34	67	+18
	Liberal Party of Australia	3,764,707	33.89	−4.80	64	−11
	One Nation	936,621	8.43	*	0	0
	National Party of Australia	588,088	5.29	−2.91	16	−3
	Australian Democrats	569,875	5.13	−1.63	0	0
	Australian Greens	238,035	2.14	−0.78	0	0
	Country Liberal Party	36,014	0.32	−0.03	0	−1
	Independents	195,180	1.76	−0.51	1	−4
	Other	326,237	2.94		0	0
	Total	11,109,063			148
Two-party-preferred vote
	Liberal/National coalition	WIN	49.02	−4.61	80	−14
	Australian Labor Party		50.98	+4.61	67	+18

Independents: Peter Andren

Popular Vote

Labor			40.10%
Liberal			33.89%
One Nation			8.43%
National			5.29%
Democrats			5.13%
Greens			2.14%
CLP			0.32%
Independents			1.76%
Other			2.94%

Two Party Preferred Vote

Labor			50.98%
Coalition			49.02%

Parliament Seats

Coalition			54.05%
Labor			45.27%
Independents			0.68%

**Senate (STV GV) — 2002–05 – Turnout 95.20% (CV) — Informal 3.89%**
	Votes	%	Swing	Seats Won	Seats Held
Australian Labor Party	4,182,963	37.31	+1.16	17	29
Liberal/National (Joint Ticket)	2,452,407	21.87	−2.62	5
Liberal Party of Australia	1,528,730	13.63	−2.61	11	31
One Nation	1,007,439	8.99	*	1	1
Australian Democrats	947,940	8.45	−2.37	4	9
Australian Greens	244,165	2.17	−0.23	0	1
National Party of Australia	208,536	1.86	−1.01	0	3
Christian Democratic Party	122,516	1.09	+0.01	0	0
Unity Party	93,968	0.83	*	0	0
Greens Western Australia	61,063	0.54	+0.02	0	0
Australia First Party	46,765	0.41	*	0	0
Australian Shooters Party	38,188	0.34	−0.71	0	0
Country Liberal Party	36,063	0.32	−0.05	1	1
Democratic Labor Party	29,893	0.27	−0.06	0	0
Harradine Group	24,254	0.22	−0.08	1	1
Other	187,013	1.70		0	0
Total	11,211,903			40	76

House of Representatives preference flows

The Nationals had candidates in 13 seats where three-cornered-contests existed, with 88.89% of preferences favouring the Liberal Party.
One Nation contested 135 electorates with preferences slightly favouring the Liberal/National Coalition (53.66%)
The Democrats contested 144 electorates with preferences slightly favouring Labor (56.72%)
The Greens contested 120 electorates with preferences strongly favouring Labor (73.28%)

Seats changing hands

Seat	Pre-1998				Swing	Post-1998
Seat	Party		Member	Margin	Swing	Margin	Member	Party
Bass, Tas		Liberal	Hon Warwick Smith	4.57	4.63	0.06	Michelle O'Byrne	Labor
Bendigo, Vic		Liberal	Bruce Reid	0.88	4.35	3.47	Steve Gibbons	Labor
Bowman, Qld		Liberal	Andrea West	0.89	4.18	3.29	Hon Con Sciacca	Labor
Braddon, Tas		Liberal	Hon Chris Miles	5.69	10.02	4.33	Sid Sidebottom	Labor
Canning, WA		Liberal	Ricky Johnston	1.64	5.16	3.52	Jane Gerick	Labor
Capricornia, Qld		National	Paul Marek	3.46	8.75	5.29	Kirsten Livermore	Labor
Chisholm, Vic		Liberal	Michael Wooldridge	2.60	4.67	2.07	Anna Burke	Labor
Cowan, WA		Liberal	Richard Evans	4.06	7.62	3.56	Graham Edwards	Labor
Curtin, WA		Independent	Allan Rocher	7.28	N/A**	13.28	Julie Bishop	Liberal
Dickson, Qld		Liberal	Tony Smith*	3.90	4.02	0.12	Cheryl Kernot	Labor
Griffith, Qld		Liberal	Graeme McDougall	1.50	3.93	2.43	Kevin Rudd	Labor
Hume, NSW		National	John Sharp	4.35	3.71	8.06	Alby Schultz	Liberal
Kingston, SA		Liberal	Susan Jeanes	2.01	2.48	0.47	David Cox	Labor
Kalgoorlie, WA		Independent	Graeme Campbell	10.35	N/A**	2.10	Barry Haase	Liberal
Lilley, Qld		Liberal	Elizabeth Grace	0.80	3.93	3.13	Wayne Swan	Labor
Lowe, NSW		Liberal	Paul Zammit*	2.46	7.09	4.63	John Murphy	Labor
McMillan, Vic		Liberal	Russell Broadbent	2.07	2.64	0.57	Christian Zahra	Labor
Moore, WA		Independent	Paul Filing	13.28	N/A**	4.13	Mal Washer	Liberal
Northern Territory, NT		Country Liberal	Nick Dondas	0.37	0.94	0.57	Warren Snowdon	Labor
Oxley, Qld		One Nation	Pauline Hanson*	0.35	7.85	8.20	Bernie Ripoll	Labor
Paterson, NSW		Liberal	Bob Baldwin	0.43	1.65	1.22	Bob Horne	Labor
Stirling, WA		Liberal	Eoin Cameron	3.22	4.26	1.04	Jann McFarlane	Labor
Swan, WA		Liberal	Don Randall	3.63	6.33	2.70	Kim Wilkie	Labor

*Paul Zammit contested his seat as an independent. The figures shown are against Liberal. Tony Smith contested his seat as an independent. The figures shown are against Labor. Pauline Hanson, a member of One Nation Party, contested the seat of Blair in this election after a redistribution, and lost to Liberal Cameron Thompson. The figures shown are a two-party-preferred basis between Labor and Liberal.
**Allan Rocher, Graeme Campbell and Paul Filing all fell out of two-party-preferred; the second figures are against Labor.

Background

The election returned the Member of the House of Representatives for its 1998–2001 term and half of Australia's senators, who then served in the 1999–2002 Senate.

Despite winning almost 51 percent of the two-party-preferred vote and regaining much of what it had lost in its severe defeat of two years earlier, Labor fell short of forming government. The government was re-elected with 49.02% of the two-party-preferred vote, compared to 50.98% for the Australian Labor Party, the largest difference of six election results where the winner did not gain a two-party preferred majority, since 2PP results first estimated from 1937.

The Gallagher Index result: 11.33

The election on 3 October 1998 was held six months earlier than required by the Constitution. Prime Minister John Howard made the announcement following the launch of the coalition's Goods and Services Tax (GST) policy launch and a five-week advertising campaign. The ensuing election was almost entirely dominated by the proposed 10% GST and proposed income tax cuts.

In reaction to One Nation's policies, the other significant parties all agreed to preference against One Nation. One Nation lost its lone house seat when founder and leader Pauline Hanson lost on preferences to Liberal candidate Cameron Thompson in the Queensland electorate of Blair. In Queensland, One Nation polled 14.83% of the Senate vote, sufficient to elect one senator without the need for preferences.^[1] The seat initially went to Heather Hill, but she was subsequently disqualified under Section 44 of the Constitution, and replaced by Len Harris.

The election-eve Newspoll reported Labor on a 53 percent two-party-preferred vote.^[2]

On election night of 3 October, the exit poll showed Labor on a 53 percent two-party-preferred vote. Labor made the single biggest gain by an Opposition party following an election defeat; the Coalition's majority was cut from 40 to 12. It was only when the first returns trickled in from Western Australia that the Coalition was assured of another term. The swing across all states would have normally been sufficient for a change of government, but the uneven nature of the swing left Kim Beazley eight seats short of becoming Prime Minister.

Notes

↑ "The AEC has recently restructured our content". Aec.gov.au. 8 June 2007. Retrieved 2010-06-13.
↑ Newspoll archive since 1987

References

Election 98, campaign and results coverage by the ABC
Australian Electoral Commission Results
University of WA election results in Australia since 1890
AEC 2PP vote
AustralianPolitics.com election details
Preference flows – ABC

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