Victorian state election, 2018
Victorian state election, 2018
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The next state election in the state of Victoria will be held on Saturday 24 November 2018 to elect 88 members to the Legislative Assembly and 40 members to the Legislative Council. The election will be conducted by the Victorian Electoral Commission.
Date of election
Pursuant to Electoral Act 2002 Victoria has had fixed terms, with all elections since the 2006 election, held every 4 years on the last Saturday of November.[1][2] The election will be for all 88 members of the Legislative Assembly and all 40 members of the Legislative Council.[1][2] Based on the fixed term legislation, the next election will occur on 24 November 2018.
Previous election
Lower house
At the 2014 election, Labor won majority government with 47 seats. The Coalition won 38 seats, with the Liberal party winning 30 and the National party winning 8. On the crossbench, the Greens won 2 seats and Independent Suzanna Sheed won the seat of Shepparton.
Upper house
At the 2014 election, Labor won 14 seats; the Coalition won 16 seats (14 Liberal, 2 National); the Greens won 5 seats; the Shooters and Fishers Party won 2 seats; and the Sex Party, Democratic Labour Party, and Vote 1 Local Jobs party won 1 seat each.
Pendulum
The following Mackerras Pendulum works by lining up all of the seats according to the percentage point margin on a two candidate preferred basis based on the 2014 results.[3] The Australian Electoral Commission considers a seat "safe" if it requires a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.[4]
By-elections
Former Nationals leader Peter Ryan announced his resignation from parliament on 2 February 2015, triggering a by-election in the seat of Gippsland South for the 14 March.[5] The election was won by Danny O'Brien of the National Party.
Denis Napthine and Terry Mulder resigned from parliament on 3 September 2015. Their seats were retained by the Liberal Party in by-elections held in South-West Coast and Polwarth on 31 October.
Retiring Members
Liberal
Polling
Polling that is conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of over 1200 electors. The declared margin of error is ±2.8 percentage points.
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Legislative Assembly (lower house) polling
| Date |
Firm |
Primary vote |
TPP vote |
| ALP |
LIB |
NAT |
GRN |
OTH |
ALP |
L/NP |
| Nov–Dec 2015 |
Newspoll[7] |
39% |
38% |
5% |
12% |
6% |
52% |
48% |
| 16 Oct 2015 |
Roy Morgan[8] |
40% |
39% |
14.5% |
6.5% |
55.5% |
44.5% |
| 28–31 Aug 2015 |
Roy Morgan[9] |
39% |
35.5% |
16.5% |
9% |
57% |
43% |
| 31 Jul-3 Aug 2015 |
Roy Morgan[10] |
41% |
38% |
14% |
7% |
56.5% |
43.5% |
| May–June 2015 |
Newspoll[7] |
41% |
32% |
3% |
14% |
10% |
58% |
42% |
| 27 May 2015 |
Roy Morgan[11] |
43.5% |
38.5% |
12.5% |
5.5% |
56.5% |
43.5% |
| 10-13 Apr 2015 |
Roy Morgan[12] |
41% |
40% |
11.5% |
7.5% |
54% |
46% |
| 13-15 Mar 2015 |
Roy Morgan[13] |
43% |
38% |
11.5% |
7.5% |
56% |
44% |
| 14-16 Feb 2015 |
Roy Morgan[14] |
41.5% |
39.5% |
11.5% |
7.5% |
54.5% |
45.5% |
| 16–18 Jan 2015 |
Roy Morgan[15] |
45% |
35%* |
11.5% |
8.5% |
59% |
41% |
| 4 December 2014 Matthew Guy becomes Liberal leader and leader of the opposition |
| 29 Nov 2014 Election |
|
38.1% |
36.5% |
5.5% |
11.5% |
8.4% |
52.0% |
48.0% |
| 25–28 Nov 2014 |
Ipsos[16] |
35% |
42%* |
15% |
8% |
52% |
48% |
| 24–27 Nov 2014 |
Newspoll |
39% |
36% |
4% |
12% |
9% |
52% |
48% |
| 27 Nov 2014 |
ReachTEL[17] |
38.3% |
34.5% |
5.2% |
13.5% |
8.5% |
52% |
48% |
| 26–27 Nov 2014 |
Roy Morgan[18] |
36% |
44%* |
13.5% |
6.5% |
50% |
50% |
| 25–26 Nov 2014 |
Galaxy[19] |
39% |
40%* |
13% |
8% |
52% |
48% |
| 7–24 Nov 2014 |
Essential[20] |
39% |
40%* |
13% |
8% |
52% |
48% |
| * Indicates a combined Liberal/National primary vote. |
| Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here |
|
Better Premier and satisfaction polling*
| Date |
Firm |
Better Premier |
|
Andrews |
Guy |
| Andrews |
Guy |
|
Satisfied |
Dissatisfied |
Satisfied |
Dissatisfied |
| Nov–Dec 2015 |
Newspoll[7] |
43% |
26% |
|
43% |
39% |
27% |
40% |
| 16 Oct 2015 |
Roy Morgan |
63.5% |
36.5% |
|
not asked |
| 31 Jul-3 Aug 2015 |
Roy Morgan[10] |
64% |
36% |
|
not asked |
| 25–28 Nov 2014 |
Newspoll[7] |
48% |
24% |
|
51% |
32% |
35% |
29% |
| 10-13 Apr 2015 |
Roy Morgan[11] |
63% |
37% |
|
not asked |
| 10-13 Apr 2015 |
Roy Morgan[12] |
59.5% |
40.5% |
|
not asked |
| 13-15 Mar 2015 |
Roy Morgan[13] |
62.5% |
37.5% |
|
not asked |
| 14–16 Feb 2015 |
Roy Morgan[14] |
62.5% |
37.5% |
|
not asked |
| 16–18 Jan 2015 |
Roy Morgan[15] |
66.5% |
33.5% |
|
not asked |
| 4 December 2014 Guy replaces Napthine |
Andrews |
Napthine |
|
Andrews |
Napthine |
| 29 Nov 2014 Election |
|
– |
– |
|
– |
– |
– |
– |
| 25–28 Nov 2014 |
Ipsos[16] |
42% |
44% |
|
42% |
43% |
49% |
40% |
| 24–27 Nov 2014 |
Newspoll |
37% |
41% |
|
38% |
43% |
41% |
45% |
| 26–27 Nov 2014 |
Roy Morgan[18] |
49.5% |
50.5% |
|
not asked |
| 25–26 Nov 2014 |
Galaxy[19] |
38% |
41% |
|
not asked |
* Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither".
† Participants were forced to choose. |
| Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here |
References
