Northern Territory general election, 2012

Northern Territory general election, 2012

25 August 2012

All 25 seats of the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly 13 seats were needed for a majority   First party Second party   Leader Terry Mills Paul Henderson Party Country Liberal Labor Leader since 29 January 2008 26 November 2007 Leader's seat Blain Wanguri Last election 11 seats 13 seats Seats before 12 seats 12 seats Seats won 16 seats 8 seats Seat change 4 4 Popular vote 46,653 33,594 Percentage 55.8% [1] 44.2% [1] Swing 5.1 5.1

Chief Minister before election Paul Henderson Labor Elected Chief Minister Terry Mills Country Liberal

The Northern Territory general election was held on Saturday 25 August 2012, which elected all 25 members of the Legislative Assembly in the unicameral Northern Territory Parliament. The 11-year Australian Labor Party government led by Chief Minister Paul Henderson was defeated in their attempt to win a fourth term against the opposition Country Liberal Party led by opposition leader Terry Mills with a swing of four seats, losing the normally safe Labor remote seats of Arafura, Arnhem, Daly and Stuart, whilst retaining their urban seats picked up at the 2001 election.^[2][3]

Adam Giles has been leading a minority government since July 2015.^[4][5]

Results

Northern Territory general election, 25 August 2012[6] Legislative Assembly << 2008 — 2016 >>
Enrolled voters		123,805
Votes cast		95,215		Turnout	76.9	+1.3
Informal votes		3,072		Informal	3.2	−0.9
Summary of votes by party
Party		Primary votes	%	Swing	Seats	Change
	Country Liberal	46,653	50.6	+5.2	16	+4
	Labor	33,594	36.5	−6.7	8	−4
	Greens	3,039	3.3	−1.0	0	±0
	First Nations	2,048	2.2	+2.2	0	±0
	Sex Party	717	0.8	+0.8	0	±0
	Independent	5,566	6.0	−1.1	1	±0
	Other	526	0.6	+0.6	0	±0
Total		92,143			25
Two-party-preferred
	Country Liberal	51,435	55.8	+5.1
	Labor	40,709	44.2	−5.1

Independents: Gerry Wood

Two safe Labor seats were uncontested at the previous election and therefore did not contribute to votes and results, all seats were contested at this election with the two previously uncontested Labor seats both won by the CLP.

Background

Historically, remote areas had voted Labor while the urban areas had voted CLP. The CLP had governed since the initial 1974 election until Labor led by Clare Martin surprisingly came to power with a one-seat majority government at the 2001 election, mainly by sweeping Darwin's more diverse northern suburbs. Labor won in a landslide at the 2005 election, winning the second-largest majority in the Territory's history and reducing the CLP to only four seats. Although Labor led by Henderson retained a one-seat majority government at the 2008 election on 13 Labor, 11 CLP, 1 independent with only 49.3 percent of the two-party preferred vote, Labor had won two seats uncontested by the CLP—all seats were contested again at the 2012 election. Labor, the CLP, the Northern Territory Greens, the First Nations Political Party and the Australian Sex Party were running endorsed candidates.

A minority government was led by Henderson from mid-2009 when Alison Anderson resigned from the Labor Party to sit as an independent member of parliament. Anderson along with the existing independent Gerry Wood signed a letter to the speaker of parliament to push sittings forward, prompting CLP leader Mills to table a motion of no confidence on Monday 10 August 2009.^[7][8][9] Wood ended up voting with the government, defeating the motion of no confidence.^[10] Anderson joined the CLP in September 2011, resulting in 12 Labor, 12 CLP, 1 independent.^[11] Wood and Anderson retained their seats at the 2012 election.

In October 2010, former CLP leader Jodeen Carney resigned in her seat, an Araluen by-election was held, the CLP retained the seat but suffered a 6.6-point two-party preferred swing.

Method

Like the Australian House of Representatives, members were elected through full-preference instant-runoff voting in single-member electorates. The election was conducted by the Northern Territory Electoral Commission, an independent body answerable to Parliament.

In a change to polling in remote electorates, where most voting was previously conducted by mobile polling teams, for the first time there was full election day voting in major regional indigenous centres. As such, swings may be distorted. The conducting of a formal polling place could also alter the way voting takes places and increase the local turnout. Mobile polling teams were still used but they took many fewer votes than in the past. In addition, for the first time in the territory, there was an electronic feed of results, the last administration in Australia to go electronic.^[12]

Date

The Henderson Labor government introduced fixed four-year terms following the previous election.^[13]

The Legislative Assembly was dissolved on 6 August 2012. The electoral roll was closed on 8 August and nominations on 10 August, prior to polling day on 25 August.^[14]

The election was held on the same day as the Heffron state by-election in New South Wales.

Retiring MPs

Labor

• Jane Aagaard (Nightcliff)
• Chris Burns (Johnston)
• Marion Scrymgour (Arafura)

Candidates

Sitting members are in bold. Successful candidates are highlighted in the relevant colour.

Electorate	Held By	Labor Candidate	CLP Candidate	Greens Candidate	Other Candidates
Arafura	Labor	Dean Rioli	Francis Xavier Kurrupuwu	George Pascoe	Jeannie Gadambua (FNPP)
Araluen	CLP	Adam Findlay	Robyn Lambley		Edan Baxter (FNPP)
Arnhem	Labor	Malarndirri McCarthy	Larisa Lee
Barkly	Labor	Gerry McCarthy	Rebecca Healy		Valda Shannon (FNPP) Stewart Willey (Ind)
Blain	CLP	Geoff Bahnert	Terry Mills		Daniel Fejo (FNPP)
Braitling	CLP	Deborah Rock	Adam Giles	Barbara Shaw	Colin Furphy (Ind)
Brennan	CLP	Russell Jeffrey	Peter Chandler
Casuarina	Labor	Kon Vatskalis	Jane Johnson
Daly	Labor	Rob Knight	Gary Higgins	David Pollock	Trevor Jenkins (-) Bill Risk (FNPP)
Drysdale	CLP	James Burke	Lia Finocchiaro		Ross Bohlin (Ind)
Fannie Bay	Labor	Michael Gunner	Tony Clementson	Ken Bird
Fong Lim	CLP	Ashley Marsh	David Tollner	Matt Haubrick	Peter Burnheim (ASP)
Goyder	CLP	Damien Smith	Kezia Purick		John Kearney (-)
Greatorex	CLP	Rowan Foley	Matt Conlan	Evelyne Roullet	Phil Walcott (Ind)
Johnston	Labor	Ken Vowles	Jo Sangster	Alana Parrott-Jolly	Peter Bussa (-) Krystal Metcalf (ASP)
Karama	Labor	Delia Lawrie	Rohan Kelly	Frances Elcoate
Katherine	CLP	Cerise King	Willem Westra van Holthe		Teresa Cummings (Ind)
Namatjira	Labor	Des Rogers	Alison Anderson		Warren H Williams (FNPP)
Nelson	Independent	Sharon McAlear	Judy Cole		Gerry Wood (Ind)
Nhulunbuy	Labor	Lynne Walker	Allen Fanning		Kendall Trudgen (Ind)
Nightcliff	Labor	Natasha Fyles	Kim Loveday	Owen Gale	Andrew Arthur (Ind) Stuart Blanch (Ind) Peter Rudge (Ind) Felicity Wardle (ASP)
Port Darwin	CLP	Alan James	John Elferink	David Andrews	Rowena Leunig (ASP)
Sanderson	CLP	Jodie Green	Peter Styles		Jillian Briggs (ASP) Dimitrious Magriplis (FNPP)
Stuart	Labor	Karl Hampton	Bess Price		Maurie Japarta Ryan (FNPP)
Wanguri	Labor	Paul Henderson	Rhianna Harker

Unregistered parties and groups

• Two previous One Nation candidates ran, One Nation Northern Territory Branch President John Kearney in Goyder and Peter Bussa from NSW in Johnston.

Pre-election pendulum

The following pendulum is known as the Mackerras Pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in the Legislative Assembly according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two-party-preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.

LABOR SEATS
Marginal
Fannie Bay	Michael Gunner	ALP	1.1
Daly	Robert Knight	ALP	5.6
Fairly safe
Johnston	Chris Burns	ALP	8.1
Safe
Nightcliff	Jane Aagaard	ALP	10.7
Karama	Delia Lawrie	ALP	10.8
Arafura	Marion Scrymgour	ALP	14.0
Casuarina	Kon Vatskalis	ALP	14.2
Wanguri	Paul Henderson	ALP	14.9
Stuart	Karl Hampton	ALP	15.1
Barkly	Gerry McCarthy	ALP	15.6
Very safe
Nhulunbuy	Lynne Walker	ALP	24.2
Arnhem	Malarndirri McCarthy	ALP	Unopp
INDEPENDENT SEATS
Nelson	Gerry Wood	IND	28.7 v CLP

COUNTRY LIBERAL SEATS
Marginal
Fong Lim	Dave Tollner	CLP	2.1
Brennan	Peter Chandler	CLP	2.6
Port Darwin	John Elferink	CLP	2.8
Fairly safe
Sanderson	Peter Styles	CLP	6.4
Goyder	Kezia Purick	CLP	8.4
Katherine	Willem W-v-Holthe	CLP	8.4
Safe
Drysdale	Ross Bohlin	CLP	10.1
Blain	Terry Mills	CLP	11.6
Greatorex	Matt Conlan	CLP	16.5
Araluen	Robyn Lambley	CLP	18.0
Very safe
Braitling	Adam Giles	CLP	20.3 v GRN
MacDonnell	Alison Anderson	ALP v. CLP	Unopp

Newspaper endorsements

Newspaper	Endorsement
The Australian		Country Liberal[15]
NT News		Labor

References

1. "Antony Greens's Election Blog: Final Figures for 2012 Northern Territory Election". ABC News. 2 September 2012. Retrieved 3 September 2012.
2. http://www.abc.net.au/elections/nt/2012/guide/sop.htm
3. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-08-25/nt-votes-live-blog/4222578
4. Kezia Purick quits Northern Territory Country Liberals party, Government loses one-seat majority: ABC 20 July 2015
5. Adam Giles would 'love to go to an early election' after Kezia Purick resigns Country Liberals party: ABC 20 July 2015
6. Legislative Assembly General Election - 25th August 2012, Northern Territory Electoral Commission.
7. "D-Day brought forward". Northern Territory News. 7 August 2009. Retrieved 3 February 2011.
8. "NT Labor may be ousted next week". ABC News. 7 August 2009. Retrieved 3 February 2011.
9. "Labor's fate uncertain". The Age. 11 August 2009. Retrieved 3 February 2011.
10. "Labor survives D-day in NT showdown". The Australian. 14 August 2009. Retrieved 3 February 2011.
11. "Anderson 'mates' with an old enemy". Northern Territory News. 9 September 2011. Retrieved 27 January 2012.
12. http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2012/08/2012-nt-election-how-to-follow-the-abc-coverage-on-saturday-night-.html
13. Green, Antony (4 August 2009). "Fixed Term Parliaments face test in Northern Territory". ABC News. Retrieved 3 February 2011.
14. Green, Antony (13 June 2012). "2012 Northern Territory Election Website now live". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 13 June 2012.
15. "Embrace the chance for a fresh start in the Territory". The Australian (News Limited). 25 August 2012. Retrieved 25 August 2012.

External links

• Northern Territory Electoral Commission