Venezuelan parliamentary election, 2015

Venezuelan parliamentary election, 2015

6 December 2015

All 167 seats in the National Assembly[1] 84 seats needed for a majority Turnout 74.17%   First party Second party   Leader Henry Ramos Allup Diosdado Cabello Party AD PSUV Alliance MUD GPP Leader since 2014[2] 2008 Leader's seat Capital District Monagas Last election 64 seats, 47.2% 99 seats, 48.2% Seats won 109[3] 55[3] Seat change 45 41 Popular vote 7,728,025 5,625,248 Percentage 56.2% 40.9% Swing 9.0 pp 7.3 pp

Results by electoral circuits. Blue denotes circuits won by the MUD, Red denotes those won by the PSUV.

President of the NA before election Diosdado Cabello PSUV President of the NA Henry Ramos Allup[4] AD

Parliamentary elections were held in Venezuela on 6 December 2015 to elect the 164 deputies and three indigenous representatives of the National Assembly. They were the fourth parliamentary elections to take place after the 1999 constitution, which abolished the bicameral system in favour of a unicameral parliament, and the first to take place after the death of President Hugo Chávez. Despite claims from the opposition of a possible last-minute cancellation, the elections took place as scheduled, with the majority of polls showing the Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD) holding a wide lead over the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) and its wider alliance, the Great Patriotic Pole (GPP).

The political landscape leading up to the elections was heavily influenced by the severe economic crisis faced by the country, as well as a series of protests that took place in 2014, after which former Chacao mayor and leader of Popular Will, Leopoldo López, was detained and sentenced to 14 years in prison. The scarcity of basic goods and high inflation were the central topics of discussion, with each party blaming their opponent as the cause. Introducing economic policies to counter the crisis, as well as granting amnesty to political prisoners, was the main campaign pledge of the MUD. The ruling PSUV, on the other hand, ran a campaign focused on overcoming what they called an "economic war" led by the right-wing against the Venezuelan people, as well as defending the legacy of Chávez and the social policies introduced during his presidency.

The result was a decisive defeat for the PSUV, which lost control of the Assembly for the first time since 1999. The MUD, composed of politicians opposed to the government of both Chávez and his successor, won 109 seats, and with the support of the three indigenous representatives, gained a supermajority of 112 seats against 55 won by the GPP. In terms of popular vote, the MUD received 7.7 million votes, an increase of 2.4 million from the 2010 elections. In comparison, the GPP only managed to gain an additional 200,000 votes.

Background

Since the 1999 Constitutional Assembly elections, the National Assembly was dominated by alliances supportive of President Hugo Chávez. In the 2005 parliamentary elections, most opposition parties decided to withdraw, resulting in all seats being won by the Fifth Republic Movement and other parties supportive of Chávez. For the 2010 elections, an alliance of opposition parties was formed by the Democratic Unity Roundtable to contest the elections, and managed to win 64 seats. The PSUV, which was an alliance formed by Chávez from the Fifth Republic Movement and a number of smaller parties, won 96 seats, maintaining their majority, but lost their two-thirds and three-fifths supermajority. Fatherland for All, a small left-wing party, won two seats.^[5] After Chávez's death in 2013, his hand-picked successor Maduro was narrowly elected president, continuing Chávez' ideological influence.^[6] In 2015, the Democratic Unity Roundtable alliance aimed to improve its result from last time and end the incumbent PSUV government,^[7] while Maduro said he had faith in the voters giving the government a large majority.^[8]

Protests

In 2014, a series of protests and demonstrations began in Venezuela. The protests have been attributed to inflation, violence and shortages in Venezuela. The protests have been largely peaceful,^[9] though some have escalated and resulted in violence from both protesters and government forces. The government has accused the protests of being motivated by 'fascists' opposition leaders, capitalism and foreign influence,^[10] and has itself been accused of censorship, supporting groups called colectivos using violence against protesters and politically motivated arrests.^[11]

Electoral system

Starting from 2015, the 167 members of the National Assembly are elected by a mixed majoritarian system; 113 members are elected by First-past-the-post voting in 87 constituencies. A total of 51 seats are elected by closed list proportional representation based on the 23 states and the Capital District. Seats are allocated using the d'Hondt method. The remaining three seats are reserved for indigenous peoples, and are elected by the community.^[12]

The opposition coalition held primaries on 17 May in 33 of the 87 electoral districts, choosing candidates for 42 seats; 125 additional candidates are expected to be hand-picked by 'consensus' among party leaders,^[13] though the rules were later changed to require 40% of opposition candidates to be women and barred some popular opposition candidates from running, a move that experts called unconstitutional.^[14] The PSUV held primaries in all 87 electoral districts on 28 June with the Bolivarian government stating there was a participation of 3,162,400 voters,^[15] though some observing the primaries noticed a large decrease of voters to less than 1 million participating, or about 10% of PSUV members.^[14]

Conduct

Leading up to the elections, serious issues have been raised about its fairness and credibility.^[16] On 10 October 2015, Brazil pulled out of a UNASUR electoral mission to observe the Venezuelan election over what it said a lack of guarantees by the socialist government and its veto of the choice to head the delegation.^[17] In a statement on 10 November 2015, Secretary General of the Organization of American States Luis Almagro condemned Venezuela's electoral process, explaining that the ruling party, PSUV, has an unfair advantage with its ability to use public assets, media access, creating dubious voting sheets and by disqualifying opposition politicians, stating that "It's worrying that ... the difficulties only impact the opposition parties".^[18]

Opinion polls

Graphical summary

The blue line represents percentage that favor MUD. The red line represents percentage that favor PSUV. Unfilled dots represent individual results of the polls seen below.

Poll results are listed in the tables below in chronological order and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	PSUV/GPP	MUD	Others/ Independent	Undecided/ Don't know
IVAD[19][20]	29 September 2014	800	27.6%	45.2%	–	27.2%
Consultores 21[20]	21 September – 2 October 2014	1000	33%	48%	–
Datanálisis[21]	October 2014	1293	21.0%	38.9%	12.9%	17.5%
Datanálisis[21]	November 2014	1300	18.8%	39.8%	15.5%	17.5%
VARIANZAS[22][23]	8–23 December 2014	1200	30.3%	43.9%	4.9% [note 1]	20.9 [note 2]
Datanálisis[21]	January 2015	1000	17.3%	45.9%	13.8%	17.4%
Keller y Asociados[24]	January 2015	1200	44%	56%	–	–
Meganalisis[25]	25 January 2015	–	21.0%	29.0%	–	26.8%
Datanálisis[26]	February 2015	?	22.5%	59.6%	17.9%	–
ICS[27]	10–20 February 2015	1300	43.6%	31.6%	–	24.8%
DatinCorp[28]	8 February 2015	1200	23.83%	47.83%	–	17%[note 3]
Datanálisis[21][29]	March 2015	1000	19.0%	42.6%	8.8%	21.3%
Keller y Asociados[30]	26 February – 13 March 2015	1200	31%	42%	11%	16%
Datanálisis[21]	April 2015	1000	25.0%	45.8%	6.5%	16.5%
VARIANZAS[31]	19 March – 2 April 2015	1200	33.7%	46.1%	7.8%	12.5%
UCAB/Delphos[32]	10–25 April 2015	1200	15.5%	39.2%	–	45.7% [note 4]
Hercón[33]	1–15 May 2015	1200	28%	52%	–	19.8% [note 5]
DatinCorp[34]	May 2015	1200	18%	48%	21%	14%[note 3]
Datanálisis[35]	18–30 May 2015	1000	21.3%	40.1%	10.0%	28.6%
Meganalisis[25]	30 May 2015	–	19.5%	17.6%	–	28.7%
IVAD[36]	28 May – 11 June 2015	1200	20.8%	32.6%	27.6	19% [note 6]
Datanálisis[37]	June 2015	?	27%	61%	12%	–
Hercón[38]	20–27 June 2015	2000	28.1%	61.1%	–	10.5%
ICS[39]	6–27 July 2015	8000 (500 per state)	45.3%	37.6%	–	17.1%
Datanálisis[21][40]	10–23 July 2015	999	19.2%	42.2%	11.8%	17.5%
DatinCorp[41]	July 2015	1197	20%	42%	14%	23% [note 7]
Meganalisis[42]	August 2015	–	16.3%	42.4%	–	13.0%
IVAD[43]	8–16 August 2015	1200	19.3%	57.9%	–	22.8%
Keller y Asociados[44]	19 August – 5 September 2015	1200	27%	53%	11%	9%
Datanálisis[45]	September 2015	–	21%	44%	35%	–
DatinCorp[46]	September 2015	–	20%	53%	–
Delphos	September 2015	–	20%	50%	20%	10%
Meganalisis[42]	September 2015	–	26.7%	37.6%	–	35.7%
Venebarómetro/IVAD[47]	5–15 September 2015	1200	17.1%	38.3%	28.0%	16.7%
Hercon[48]	13–16 September 2015	1000	22.3%	60.1%	13.0%	4.6%
Consultores 21[49]	4–20 September 2015	-	35.8%	57.8%	3.7%	–
Hercon[50]	5–20 September 2015	1200	30.3%	62.3%	–	7.3%
Consultores 21[51]	October 2015	-	34%	55%	–
Datanálisis[52]	October 2015	–	28.2%	63.2%	–
DatinCorp[53]	October 2015	–	20%	47%	–
DatinCorp[54]	October 2015	–	39%	56%	–
IVAD[55]	October 2015	–	22.1%	41.8%	[note 1]
Venebarómetro[56]	11 October 2015	–	19,9%	43.7%	–	26.5%
Keller y Asociados[57]	5–15 November 2015	1200	25%	59%	11%	6%
IVAD[58]	10–20 November 2015	1200	27.8%	43.0%	11.3%	17.8%
Venebarómetro[59]	8–22 November 2015	1200	27.6%	42.7%	11.1%	18.7%
Hercón[60]	10–25 November 2015	1200	31.6%	60.1%	–	8.2%
Meganalisis[61]	18–26 November 2015	1200	28%	63%	6%	3%

Results

The MUD won 109 of the 164 general seats and all three indigenous seats, which gave them a supermajority in the National Assembly; while the GPP won the remaining 55 seats. Voter turnout exceeded 70 percent.^[62]

Results of the list vote by state.

Party		Votes	%	Seats	+/–

	Democratic Unity Roundtable	7,726,066	56.22	109	45
	Justice First	–	–	33	22
	Democratic Action	–	–	25	12
	A New Era	–	–	18	3
	Popular Will	–	–	14	New
	Radical Cause	–	–	4	1
	Progressive Movement of Venezuela	–	–	4	2
	Clear Accounts	–	–	2	New
	Progressive Advance	–	–	2	1
	Project Venezuela	–	–	2	1
	Independents	–	–	2	8
	Vente Venezuela	–	–	1	New
	Emerging People	–	–	1	New
	Fearless People's Alliance	–	–	1

	Great Patriotic Pole	5,622,844	40.91	55	44
	United Socialist Party of Venezuela	–	–	52	44
	Communist Party of Venezuela	–	–	2	1
	Bicentennial Republican Vanguard	–	–	1	1

	Others	394,064	2.87	0	2
	Indigenous seats	–	–	3
Invalid/blank votes		686,119	–	–	–
Total		14,385,349	100	167	2
Registered voters/turnout		19,504,106	74.17	–	–
Source: CNE

Popular vote
MUD			56.21%
PSUV			40.92%
Others			2.87%

Seats in the National Assembly
MUD			65.27%
GPP			32.93%
Indigenous			1.80%

Results of list vote by state

The following table records the official list vote tallies for each state for those alliances which were listed on ballots. State popular vote results are from the official CNE page. The column labeled "Margin" shows the MUD's margin of victory over the GPP (the margin is negative for states won by the GPP).

States/districts won by the MUD

States/districts won by the GPP

	MUD		GPP		Others		Margin		State total
State	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#
Capital District	662,926	57.23%	460,871	39.79%	34,443	2.97%	202,055	17.45%	1,158,240
Amazonas	33,069	49.81%	30,868	46.49%	2,447	3.69%	2,201	3.32%	66,384
Anzoátegui	451,973	59.34%	288,789	37.91%	20,890	2.74%	163,184	21.43%	761,652
Apure	93,666	44.79%	110,834	53.00%	4,611	2.21%	-17,168	-8.21%	209,111
Aragua	468,964	54.07%	375,304	43.27%	22,975	2.75%	94,660	10.80%	867,243
Barinas	217,630	55.68%	166,471	42.59%	6,694	1.71%	51,159	13.09%	390,795
Bolívar	387,771	59.57%	242,849	37.30%	20,309	3.12%	144,922	22.26%	650,929
Carabobo	644,642	58.57%	439,195	39.91%	16,619	1.51%	205,447	18.67%	1,100,456
Cojedes	77,395	46.39%	87,585	52.50%	1,826	1.09%	-10,190	-6.11%	166,806
Delta Amacuro	27,087	36.20%	43,813	58.55%	3,922	5.24%	-16,726	-22.35%	74,822
Falcón	252,620	54.14%	196,425	42.10%	17,484	3.75%	56,195	12.05%	466,529
Guárico	168,934	48.35%	175,857	50.33%	4,588	1.31%	-6,923	-1.98%	349,379
Lara	504,122	54.67%	388,685	42.15%	29,184	3.17%	115,437	12.52%	921,991
Mérida	280,251	63.33%	145,585	32.89%	16,676	3.77%	134,666	30.43%	442,512
Miranda	838,292	58.96%	546,718	38.45%	36,762	2.59%	291,574	20.51%	1,421,772
Monagas	227,635	51.55%	201,182	45.56%	12,705	2.88%	26,453	5.99%	441,522
Nueva Esparta	151,122	60.89%	93,365	37.62%	3,692	1.49%	57,757	23.27%	248,179
Portuguesa	186,905	43.96%	228,409	53.72%	9,833	2.31%	-41,504	-9.76%	424,774
Sucre	201,753	49.04%	196,080	47.66%	13,548	3.29%	5,673	1.38%	411,381
Táchira	392,709	65.55%	175,103	29.23%	31,229	5.21%	217,606	36.33%	599,041
Trujillo	180,300	49.48%	168,503	46.25%	15,525	4.26%	11,797	3.24%	364,328
Vargas	99,734	52.27%	85,453	44.78%	5,609	2.94%	14,281	7.48%	190,796
Yaracuy	148,481	48.09%	156,601	50.71%	3,674	1.19%	-8,120	-2.63%	308,756
Zulia	1.030,044	60.24%	620,703	36,30%	58,932	3.45%	409,341	23.94%	1,709,679
Totals:	7,728,025	56.21%	5,625,248	40.92%	394,177	2.87%	2,102,777	15.30%	13,747,450

Reactions

Domestic

According to the Associated Press, celebrations and fireworks could be heard in the streets of Caracas following the MUD victory.^[63] In a speech following the results, President Maduro acknowledged his party's defeat, saying that, despite these "adverse results", Venezuela's democracy and constitution had triumphed; while calling for peace, re-evaluation, he attributed the opposition's victory to an intensification of the "economic war".^[63][64] A defiant Maduro said he would give no quarter to the Venezuelan opposition in spite of his own party’s crushing defeat in last weekend’s mid-term parliamentary elections. Maduro vowed to block “the counter-revolutionary right” from taking over the country. “We won’t let it,” he said.^[65] The leader of the MUD, Jesús Torrealba, told supporters after their party's victory that "The country wants change and that change is beginning today".^[63] Henrique Capriles Radonski, a leading opposition politician, stated "The results are as we hoped. Venezuela has won. It's irreversible".^[64]

Creation of "National Communal Parliament"

Two days before the election, journalist Andrés Oppenheimer predicted that President Maduro would initially accept defeat like his predecessor Hugo Chávez did after the 2007 constitutional referendum but that like Chávez, Maduro would attempt to circumvent political gains by the opposition.^[66] Oppenheimer believed that the Maduro government would use a 2010 "People’s Power law" initiated by Chávez to create a "People’s National Assembly" from a communal electoral system.^[66] A little over a week after the elections on 15 December 2015, the outgoing National Assembly created the "National Communal Parliament" with President Maduro stating "I'm going to give all the power to the communal parliament ... This parliament is going to be a legislative mechanism from the grassroots. All power to the Communal parliament".^[67] The move was described as an attempt "to sideline and leapfrog the incoming opposition-controlled National Assembly" and that such actions could possibly lead to more destability and polarization in Venezuela for the future.^[68]

International

Venezuelan bonds grew across the board about one to three cents after the announcement of MUD's victory in the elections, with one researcher at Exotix brokerage stating, "It's better than we expected. Polls suggested a victory but whether that translated into seats was another question. Also, (the government) seem to have accepted the result".^[69]

Mauricio Macri, president elect of Argentina, had announced in previous days that he would request to remove Venezuela from Mercosur, as the government was not respecting democratic doctrines. He declined this plan when Maduro acknowledged the defeat of his party.^[70]

Notes and references

Notes

1. Neither
2. 11.2% Don't know, 7.4% It depends, 2.3 % Won't vote
3. No vote (no votaría)
4. 20.7% Don't know, 8.2% Won't vote, 16.4% Neither
5. 11.2% Don't know, 14.2% Won't vote
6. "The rest declares themselves undecided."
7. 13% "Wouldn't Vote, 10% "Undecided"

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