National Assembly for Wales election, 2016

National Assembly for Wales election, 2016

5 May 2016

All 60 seats to the National Assembly for Wales 31 seats needed for a majority   First party Second party Third party   Leader Carwyn Jones Leanne Wood Andrew R. T. Davies Party Labour Plaid Cymru Conservative Leader's seat Bridgend Rhondda South Wales Central Last election 30 seats, 42.3% 11 seats, 19.3% 14 seats, 25.0% Seats won 29 seats, 34.7% 12 seats, 20.5% 11 seats, 21.1% Seat change 1 1 3 Constituency Votes 353,866 209,376 215,597 Constituency % 34.7% 20.5% 21.1% List Votes 319,196 211,548 190,846   Fourth party Fifth party   Leader Nathan Gill Kirsty Williams Party UKIP Liberal Democrats Leader's seat North Wales Brecon and Radnorshire Last election 0 seats, 4.7% 5 seats, 10.6% Seats won 7 seats, 12.5% 1 seat, 7.7% Seat change 7 4 Constituency Votes 127,038 Constituency % 12.5% List Votes 132,138

First Minister before election Carwyn Jones Labour Elected First Minister TBD

The National Assembly for Wales election 2016 was held on Thursday 5 May 2016, to elect members of the National Assembly for Wales (AMs). It was the fifth election for the National Assembly, the third election taken under the rules of the Government of Wales Act 2006 and the first since the Wales Act 2014.

The governing Labour Party's share of the vote fell by over 7% and they returned 29 AMs, one fewer than in 2011 and two short of an overall majority. Plaid Cymru became the Assembly's second largest party and the official opposition to the Welsh Government with 12 seats, one more than before. The Conservative Party returned 11 AMs, three fewer than they previously had. Although they didn't win a single constituency, the UK Independence Party had 7 members elected through the regional lists vote. The Liberal Democrats returned only one AM, down from five.

British, Irish, Commonwealth and European Union citizens living in Wales aged 18 or over on election day were entitled to vote. The election was held on the same day as elections for the Scottish Parliament, for the Northern Ireland Assembly, for the Mayor and Assembly of London and in numerous local authorities in England. This election and elections to the other devolved chambers were delayed by a year from 2015 to 2016 as a result of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011.^[1] Elections to the Welsh Assembly have now also been permanently moved to a five-year cycle under the Wales Act 2014.

Electoral method

In general elections for the National Assembly for Wales, each voter has two votes in a mixed member system. The first vote is for a candidate to become the Assembly Member for the voter's constituency, elected by the first past the post system. The second vote is for a regional closed party list of candidates. Additional member seats are allocated from the lists by the d'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation. The overall result is approximately proportional.

The previous restriction on the ability to stand in both a constituency and a regional list was lifted by the Wales Act 2014. The Act also removes the ability to dual mandate with the House of Commons — an Assembly Member will no longer be allowed to also be an MP.

Retiring members

The following, previously incumbent AMs, did not run for re-election:

Plaid Cymru

• Jocelyn Davies, South Wales East region^[2]
• Alun Ffred Jones, Arfon^[3]
• Rhodri Glyn Thomas, Carmarthen East and Dinefwr^[4]

Welsh Labour

• Dame Rosemary Butler, Newport West^[5]
• Christine Chapman, Cynon Valley^[6]
• Jeffrey Cuthbert, Caerphilly^[7]
• Keith Davies, Llanelli^[8]
• Janice Gregory, Ogmore^[9]
• Edwina Hart, Gower^[10]
• Huw Lewis, Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney
• Sandy Mewies, Delyn^[11]
• Gwyn R Price, Islwyn^[12]
• Gwenda Thomas, Neath^[10]

Opinion polls

Constituency Vote (FPTP)

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Cons	Plaid	Lib Dem	UKIP	Others	Lead
19–22 Apr 2016	YouGov/ITV Wales	1,001	33%	19%	21%	8%	15%	3%	12%
7–11 Apr 2016	YouGov/ITV Wales	1,011	35%	19%	21%	6%	17%	3%	14%
7–18 Mar 2016	Welsh Election Study/Economic & Social Research Council	3,272	34%	22%	21%	6%	15%	3%	12%
9–11 Feb 2016	YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer	TBA	34%	22%	19%	5%	18%	2%	12%
30 Nov–4 Dec 2015	YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer	1,005	35%	23%	20%	5%	15%	2%	12%
21–24 Sep 2015	YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer	1,010	39%	23%	18%	6%	13%	1%	16%
24–26 Jun 2015	YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer	1,151	35%	23%	20%	4%	15%	4%	12%
4–6 May 2015	YouGov/ITV Wales	1,202	35%	22%	21%	6%	12%	3%	13%
5–9 Mar 2015	YouGov/ITV Wales	1,279	37%	22%	20%	6%	11%	5%	15%
19–21 Jan 2015	YouGov/ITV Wales	1,036	34%	21%	18%	7%	13%	7%	13%
2–5 Dec 2014	YouGov/ITV Wales	1,131	35%	22%	19%	6%	12%	6%	13%
8–11 Sep 2014	YouGov/ITV Wales	1,025	36%	21%	19%	6%	12%	6%	15%
26 Jun–1 Jul 2014	YouGov/ITV Wales	1,035	39%	20%	19%	8%	13%	5%	19%
11–22 Apr 2014	YouGov/IPPR, Cardiff University, Edinburgh University	1,027	41%	21%	20%	8%	7%	2%	20%
10–12 Feb 2014	YouGov/ITV Wales	1,250	42%	21%	19%	9%	5%	3%	21%
2–4 Dec 2013	YouGov/ITV Wales	1,001	43%	19%	20%	9%	7%	3%	23%
18–22 Jul 2013	YouGov/Elections in Wales Blog	1,012	47%	19%	17%	8%	6%	3%	28%
28 Feb 2013	Ynys Môn by-election, 2013
18–20 Feb 2013	YouGov/ITV Wales	1,007	46%	21%	17%	10%	5%	2%	25%
5 May 2011	National Assembly for Wales election, 2011 (constituency)	949,252	42.3%	25.0%	19.3%	10.6%	N/A	2.8%	17.3%

Regional Vote (AMS)

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Cons	Plaid	Lib Dem	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
19–22 Apr 2016	YouGov/ITV Wales	1,001	29%	19%	22%	8%	15%	4%	3%	7%
7–11 Apr 2016	YouGov/ITV Wales	1,011	31%	20%	20%	5%	16%	4%	3%	11%
7–18 Mar 2016	Welsh Election Study/Economic & Social Research Council	3,272	31%	22%	22%	5%	14%	4%	3%	9%
9–11 Feb 2016	YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer	TBA	31%	22%	19%	4%	18%	3%	3%	9%
30 Nov–4 Dec 2015	YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer	1,005	34%	23%	18%	4%	16%	4%	2%	11%
21–24 Sep 2015	YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer	1,010	34%	24%	18%	5%	14%	4%	2%	10%
24–26 Jun 2015	YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer	1,151	32%	22%	20%	5%	14%	4%	3%	10%
4–6 May 2015	YouGov/ITV Wales	1,202	32%	22%	20%	6%	13%	3%	1%	10%
5–9 Mar 2015	YouGov/ITV Wales	1,279	33%	22%	21%	5%	12%	5%	2%	11%
19–21 Jan 2015[fn 1]	YouGov/ITV Wales	1,036	32%	20%	15%	8%	16%	8%	2%	12%
2–5 Dec 2014	YouGov/ITV Wales	1,131	31%	20%	19%	6%	15%	7%	2%	11%
8–11 Sep 2014	YouGov/ITV Wales	1,025	31%	21%	16%	5%	17%	7%	3%	10%
26 Jun–1 Jul 2014	YouGov/ITV Wales	1,035	34%	21%	18%	5%	16%	4%	3%	13%
12–14 May 2014	YouGov/ITV Wales	1,092	35%	19%	17%	7%	14%	6%	2%	16%
11–22 Apr 2014	YouGov/IPPR, Cardiff University, Edinburgh University	1,027	37%	21%	19%	7%	10%	4%	2%	16%
10–12 Feb 2014	YouGov/ITV Wales	1,250	39%	19%	17%	9%	10%	6%		20%
2–4 Dec 2013	YouGov/ITV Wales	1,001	40%	19%	15%	9%	10%	7%		21%
18–22 Jul 2013	YouGov/Elections in Wales Blog	1,012	25%	12%	23%	9%	16%	14%		2%
28 Feb 2013	Ynys Môn by-election, 2013
18–20 Feb 2013	YouGov/ITV Wales	1,007	26%	14%	26%	8%	13%	6%	7%	Tie
5 May 2011	National Assembly for Wales election, 2011 (regional)	949,388	36.9%	22.5%	17.9%	8.0%	4.6%	3.4%	6.7%	14.4%

Constituency nominations

NB: candidates in BOLD text were the incumbent assembly members. Non incumbents are represented in italics. Members elected 2016 are highlighted with party colours.

Constituency	Welsh Conservative Party	Welsh Labour	Welsh Liberal Democrats	Plaid Cymru	Wales Green Party	UKIP[13]	Others	Result
Aberavon	David Jenkins	David Rees	Helen Ceri Clarke	Bethan Jenkins	Jonathan Tier	Glenda Davies[13]		Labour HOLD
Aberconwy	Janet Finch-Saunders	Mike Priestley	Sarah Lesiter-Burgess	Trystan Lewis	Petra Haig			Conservative HOLD
Alyn and Deeside	Mike Gibbs	Carl Sargeant	Pete Williams	Jacqueline Hurst	Martin Bennewith	Michelle Brown[13]		Labour HOLD
Arfon	Martin Peet	Sion Jones	Sarah Lloyd Williams	Sian Gwenllian				Plaid Cymru HOLD
Blaenau Gwent	Tracey West	Alun Davies	Brendan D'Cruz	Nigel Copner		Kevin Boucher[13]		Labour HOLD
Brecon and Radnorshire	Gary Price	Alex Thomas	Kirsty Williams	Freddy Greaves	Grenville Ham	Thomas Turton[13]		LD HOLD
Bridgend	George Jabbour	Carwyn Jones	Jonathan Pratt	James Radcliffe	Charlotte Barlow	Caroline Jones[13]		Labour HOLD
Caerphilly	Jane Pratt	Hefin David	Aladdin Ayesh	Lindsay Whittle	Andrew Creak	Sam Gould[13]		Labour HOLD
Cardiff Central	Joel Williams	Jenny Rathbone	Eluned Parrott	Glyn Wise	Amelia Womack	Mohammed-Sarul Islam[13]	Jane Croad (Independent)	Labour HOLD
Cardiff North	Jayne Cowan	Julie Morgan	John Dixon	Elin Walker Jones	Chris von Ruhland	Haydn Rushworth[13]	Fiona Burt (Independent)	Labour HOLD
Cardiff South and Penarth	Ben Grey	Vaughan Gething	Nigel Howells	Dr Dafydd Trystan Davies	Anthony Slaughter	Hugh Moelwyn-Hughes[13]		Labour HOLD
Cardiff West	Sean Driscoll	Mark Drakeford	Cadan ap Tomos	Neil McEvoy [14]	Hannah Pudner	Gareth Bennett[13]	Elliot Freedman (Independent) Lee Woolls (Vapers In Power)	Labour HOLD
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Matthew Paul	Steve Jeacock	William Powell	Adam Price	Freya Amsbury	Neil Hamilton[13]		Plaid Cymru HOLD
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire	Angela Burns	Marc Tierney	Alistair Cameron	Simon Thomas	Val Bradley	Allan Brookes[13]	Chris Overton (independent)	Conservative HOLD
Ceredigion	Dr Felix Aubel	Iwan Wyn Jones	Elizabeth Evans	Elin Jones	Brian Williams	Gethin James[13]		Plaid Cymru HOLD
Clwyd South	Simon Baynes	Ken Skates	Aled Roberts	Mabon ap Gwynfor	Duncan Rees	Mandy Jones[13]		Labour HOLD
Clwyd West	Darren Millar	Jo Thomas	Victor Babu	Llyr Huws Gruffydd	Julian Mahy	David Edwards[13]		Conservative HOLD
Cynon Valley	Lyn Hudson	Vikki Howells	Michael Wallace	Cerith Griffiths	John Matthews	Liz Wilks[13]		Labour HOLD
Delyn	Huw Williams	Hannah Blythyn	Tom Rippeth	Paul Rowlinson		Nigel Williams[13]		Labour HOLD
Dwyfor Meirionnydd	Neil Fairlamb	Ian MacIntyre	Stephen Churchman	Lord Elis-Thomas	Alice Hooker-Stroud	Frank Wykes[13]	Louise Hughes (Independent)	Plaid Cymru HOLD
Gower	Lyndon Jones	Rebecca Evans	Sheila Kingston-Jones	Harri Roberts	Abi Cherry-Hamer	Colin Beckett[13]		Labour HOLD
Islwyn	Paul Williams	Rhianon Passmore	Matthew Kidner	Lyn Ackerman	Katy Beddoe	Joe Smyth[13]		Labour HOLD
Llanelli	Stefan Ryszewski	Lee Waters	Gemma-Jane Bowker	Helen Mary Jones [8]	Guy Martin Smith	Kenneth Denver-Rees (Ken Rees)[13]	Siân Caiach (Putting Llanelli First)	Labour HOLD
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney	Elizabeth Simon	Dawn Bowden	Bob Griffin	Brian Thomas	Julie Colbran	David Rowlands[13]		Labour HOLD
Monmouth	Nick Ramsay	Catherine Fookes [15]	Veronica German [16]	Jonathan Clark	Chris Were	Tim Price[13]	Debby Blakebrough (Independent),[17] Stephen Morris (English Democrats)	Conservative HOLD
Montgomeryshire	Russell George	Martyn Singleton	Jane Dodds	Aled Morgan Hughes	Richard Chaloner	Des Parkinson[13]		Conservative HOLD
Neath	Peter Crocker-Jaques	Jeremy Miles	Frank Little	Alun Llewelyn	Lisa Rapado	Richard Pritchard[13]	Stephen Hunt (Independent)	Labour HOLD
Newport East	Munawar Mughal	John Griffiths	Paul Halliday	Tony Salkeld	Peter Varley	James Peterson[13]		Labour HOLD
Newport West	Matthew Evans	Jayne Bryant	Liz Newton	Simon Coopey	Pippa Bartolotti	Michael Ford[13]	Gruff Meredith (Cymru Sovereign) Bill Fearnley-Whittingstall (Independent)	Labour HOLD
Ogmore	Jamie Wallis	Huw Irranca-Davies	Anita Davies	Tim Thomas	Laurence Brophy	Hazel Kendall[13]		Labour HOLD
Pontypridd	Joel James	Mick Antoniw	Mike Powell	Chad Rickard	Ken Barker	Edwin Allen[13]		Labour HOLD
Preseli Pembrokeshire	Paul Davies	Dan Lodge	Bob Kilmister	John Osmond	Frances Bryant	Howard Lillyman[13]		Conservative HOLD
Rhondda	Maria Hill	Leighton Andrews	Rhys Taylor	Leanne Wood [18]	Pat Matthews	Stephen Clee[13]		Plaid Cymru GAIN
Swansea East	Sadie Vidal	Michael Hedges	Charlene Webster	Dic Jones	Tony Young	Clifford Johnson[13]		Labour HOLD
Swansea West	Craig Lawton	Julie James	Chris Holley	Dr Dai Lloyd	Gareth Tucker	Rosie Irwin[13]	Brian Johnson (Socialist Party of Great Britain)	Labour HOLD
Torfaen	Cllr Graham Smith	Lynne Neagle	Alison Willott	Matthew Woolfall-Jones	Steven Jenkins	Susan Boucher[13]		Labour HOLD
Vale of Clwyd	Sam Rowlands	Ann Jones	Gwyn Williams	Mair Rowlands		Paul Davies-Cooke[13]		Labour HOLD
Vale of Glamorgan	Ross England	Jane Hutt	Denis Campbell	Ian Johnson	Alison Haden	Lawrence Andrews[13]		Labour HOLD
Wrexham	Andrew Atkinson	Lesley Griffiths	Beryl Blackmore	Carrie Harper	Alan Butterworth	Jeanette Bassford-Barton[13]		Labour HOLD
Ynys Môn	Clay Theakston	Julia Dobson	Mark Rosenthal	Rhun ap Iorwerth	Gerry Wolff	Simon Wall[13]	Daniel Meredith Ap Eifion Jones (Independent)	Plaid Cymru HOLD

Regional lists

Mid and West Wales

Welsh Assembly general election, 2016: Mid and West Wales
Constituency		Elected member	Result
	Brecon and Radnorshire	Kirsty Williams	Liberal Democrat hold
	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Adam Price	Plaid Cymru hold
	Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire	Angela Burns	Conservative hold
	Ceredigion	Elin Jones	Plaid Cymru hold
	Dwyfor Meirionnydd	Dafydd Elis-Thomas	Plaid Cymru hold
	Llanelli	Lee Waters	Labour hold
	Montgomeryshire	Russell George	Conservative hold
	Preseli Pembrokeshire	Paul Davies	Conservative hold

Welsh Assembly general election, 2016: Mid and West Wales
Party		Elected candidates	Seats	+/−	Votes	%	+/−%
	Plaid Cymru	Simon Thomas	1	±0	56,754	26.3%	−0.5%
	Conservative		0	±0	44,461	20.6%	-4.6%
	Labour	Joyce Watson Eluned Morgan	2	±0	41,975	19.4%	-3.1%
	UKIP	Neil Hamilton	1	+1	25,042	11.6%	+7.2%
	Liberal Democrat		0	-1	23,554	10.9%	−1.9%

North Wales

Welsh Assembly general election, 2016: North Wales
Constituency		Elected member	Result
	Aberconwy	Janet Finch-Saunders	Conservative hold
	Alyn and Deeside	Carl Sargeant	Labour hold
	Arfon	Siân Gwenllian	Plaid Cymru hold
	Clwyd South	Ken Skates	Labour hold
	Clwyd West	Darren Millar	Conservative hold
	Delyn	Hannah Blythyn	Labour hold
	Vale of Clwyd	Ann Jones	Labour hold
	Wrexham	Lesley Griffiths	Labour hold
	Ynys Môn	Rhun ap Iorwerth	Plaid Cymru hold

Welsh Assembly general election, 2016: North Wales
Party		Elected candidates	Seats	+/−	Votes	%	+/−%
	Labour		0	±0	57,528	28.1%	-4.0%
	Plaid Cymru	Llyr Huws Gruffydd	1	±0	47,701	23.3%	+1.9%
	Conservative	Mark Isherwood	1	-1	45,468	22.2%	-4.6%
	UKIP	Nathan Gill Michelle Brown	2	+2	25,518	12.5%	+7.5%
	Liberal Democrat		0	-1	9,345	4.6%	−1.3%

South Wales Central

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Welsh Assembly general election, 2016: South Wales Central
Constituency		Elected member	Result
	Cardiff Central	Jenny Rathbone	Labour hold
	Cardiff North	Julie Morgan	Labour hold
	Cardiff South and Penarth	Vaughan Gething	Labour hold
	Cardiff West	Mark Drakeford	Labour hold
	Cynon Valley	Vikki Howells	Labour hold
	Pontypridd	Mick Antoniw	Labour hold
	Rhondda	Leanne Wood	Plaid Cymru gain from Labour
	Vale of Glamorgan	Jane Hutt	Labour hold

Welsh Assembly general election, 2016: South Wales Central
Party		Elected candidates	Seats	+/−	Votes	%	+/−%
	Labour		0	±0	78,366	33.9%	-7.1%
	Plaid Cymru	Neil McEvoy	1	±0	48,357	20.9%	+1.9%
	Conservative	Andrew R. T. Davies David Melding	2	±0	42,185	18.3%	-3.7%
	UKIP	Gareth Bennett	1	+1	23,958	10.4%	+6.4%
	Liberal Democrat		0	-1	14,875	6.4%	−1.5%

South Wales East

Welsh Assembly general election, 2016: South Wales East
Constituency		Elected member	Result
	Blaenau Gwent	Alun Davies	Labour hold
	Caerphilly	Hefin David	Labour hold
	Islwyn	Rhianon Passmore	Labour hold
	Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney	Dawn Bowden	Labour hold
	Monmouth	Nick Ramsay	Conservative hold
	Newport East	John Griffiths	Labour hold
	Newport West	Jayne Bryant	Labour hold
	Torfaen	Lynne Neagle	Labour hold

Welsh Assembly general election, 2016: South Wales East
Party		Elected candidates	Seats	+/−	Votes	%	+/−%
	Labour		0	±0	74,424	38.3%	-7.3%
	UKIP	Mark Reckless David Rowlands	2	+2	34,524	17.8%	+12.5%
	Conservative	Mohammad Asghar	1	-1	33,318	17.2%	-2.4%
	Plaid Cymru	Steffan Lewis	1	-1	29,686	15.3%	+3.2%

South Wales West

Welsh Assembly general election, 2016: South Wales West
Constituency		Elected member	Result
	Aberavon	David Rees	Labour hold
	Bridgend	Carwyn Jones	Labour hold
	Gower	Rebecca Evans	Labour hold
	Neath	Jeremy Miles	Labour hold
	Ogmore	Huw Irranca-Davies	Labour hold
	Swansea East	Mike Hedges	Labour hold
	Swansea West	Julie James	Labour hold

Welsh Assembly general election, 2016: South Wales West
Party		Elected candidates	Seats	+/−	Votes	%	+/−%
	Labour		0	±0	66,903	39.5%	-6.9%
	Plaid Cymru	Bethan Jenkins Dai Lloyd	2	+1	29,050	17.2%	+3.4
	Conservative	Suzy Davies	1	±0	25,414	15.0%	-2.8%
	UKIP	Caroline Jones	1	+1	23,096	13.7%	+9.4%
	Liberal Democrat		0	-1	10,946	6.5%	−0.5%

See also

• Scottish Parliament general election, 2016
• Northern Ireland Assembly election, 2016
• London mayoral election, 2016
• Opinion polling for the 2015 United Kingdom general election
• Ynys Môn by-election, 2013

References

1. Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 section 5
2. Graham Henry (16 July 2014). "Plaid Cymru's Jocelyn Davies to stand down as AM in 2016". walesonline. Retrieved 5 November 2015.
3. "Plaid AM Alun Ffred Jones to retire". BBC News. Retrieved 5 November 2015.
4. "Rhodri Glyn Thomas Plaid Cymru AM to stand down in 2016". BBC News. Retrieved 5 November 2015.
5. "Assembly presiding officer to stand down as AM in 2016". BBC News. Retrieved 5 November 2015.
6. "Cynon Valley AM Christine Chapman to stand down in 2016". BBC News. Retrieved 5 November 2015.
7. "Caerphilly AM Jeff Cuthbert to stand down at 2016 Assembly Election". Caerphilly Observer. Retrieved 5 November 2015.
8. Martin Shipton (18 June 2015). "Llanelli AM Keith Davies to stand down". walesonline. Retrieved 5 November 2015.
9. Nick Powell (18 October 2015). "Labour Chief Whip to leave Assembly". ITV News. Retrieved 27 March 2016.
10. "First minister's tribute to AMs Edwina Hart and Gwenda Thomas". BBC News. Retrieved 5 November 2015.
11. Rhodri Barker (22 September 2014). "Delyn AM Sandy Mewies to step down in 2016". northwales. Retrieved 5 November 2015.
12. "Islwyn AM to stand down". Caerphilly Observer. Retrieved 5 November 2015.
14. Martin Shipton (5 July 2015). "Leanne Wood tops Plaid's list of candidates for Assembly elections by just 10 votes". walesonline. Retrieved 5 November 2015.
15. "Monmouth Constituency Labour Party elections". monmouthlabour.org. Retrieved 5 November 2015.
16. "Veronica German". Liberal Democrats. Retrieved 5 November 2015.
17. "Protected Blog". wordpress.com. Retrieved 5 November 2015.
18. "Plaid Cymru's Leanne Wood defends dual candidacy plans". BBC News. Retrieved 5 November 2015.

External links

• The National Assembly for Wales has produced a website with information on the election.

1. Seat estimates are based on constituency and regional poll.