Czech legislative election, 2013

Czech legislative election, 2013
Czech Republic
25–26 October 2013

All 200 seats in the Chamber of Deputies
101 seats needed for a majority
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Bohuslav Sobotka Andrej Babiš Vojtěch Filip
Party ČSSD ANO KSČM
Leader since 29 May 2010 1 August 2012 1 October 2005
Leader's seat South Moravia Prague South Bohemia
Last election 56 seats, 22.08% Did not contest 26 seats, 11.27%
Seats won 50 47 33
Seat change Decrease6 Increase47 Increase7
Popular vote 1,016,829 927,240 741,044
Percentage 20.45% 18.65% 14.91%
Swing Decrease1.63% Increase18.65% Increase3.64%

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Karel Schwarzenberg Miroslava Němcová Tomio Okamura
Party TOP 09 ODS Dawn
Leader since 11 June 2009 9 August 2013 May 2013
Leader's seat Prague Prague Central Bohemia
Last election 41 seats, 16.70% 53 seats, 20.22% Did not contest
Seats won 26 16 14
Seat change Decrease15 Decrease37 Increase14
Popular vote 596,357 384,174 342,339
Percentage 11.99% 7.72% 6.88%
Swing Decrease4.71% Decrease12.50% Increase6.88%

  Seventh party
 
Leader Pavel Bělobrádek
Party KDU–ČSL
Leader since November 2010
Leader's seat Hradec Králové
Last election 0 seats, 4.39%
Seats won 14
Seat change Increase14
Popular vote 336,970
Percentage 6.78%
Swing Increase2.39%

Winning party by district (Red: Communist, Orange: ČSSD, Blue: ANO 2011, Purple: TOP 09)

Prime Minister before election

Jiří Rusnok
Independent

Elected Prime Minister

Bohuslav Sobotka
ČSSD

  ČSSD (50 seats)
  ANO 2011 (47 seats)
  KSČM (33 seats)
  TOP 09 (26 seats)
  ODS (16 seats)
  UPD (14 seats)
  KDU-ČSL (14 seats)

Early legislative elections were held in the Czech Republic on 25 and 26 October 2013, seven months before the constitutional expiry of the elected parliament's four year legislative term.

The government elected in May 2010 led by Prime Minister Petr Nečas was forced to resign on 17 June 2013, after a corruption and bribery scandal. A caretaker government led by Prime Minister Jiří Rusnok was then appointed by the President, but narrowly lost a vote of confidence on 7 August, leading to its resignation six days later.[1] The Chamber of Deputies then passed a motion dissolving itself on 20 August, with a call for new elections within 60 days after presidential assent.[2][3] The President gave his assent on 28 August, scheduling the elections for 25 and 26 October 2013.[4]

The two parties gaining the most seats were the Czech Social Democratic Party (50 seats) and the new party ANO 2011 (47 seats). The Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia came third, with a 3.6% swing in its favour. The two parties from the previous coalition government who were contesting the election, TOP 09 and the Civic Democratic Party, both lost substantial numbers of seats, to come fourth and fifth, respectively. Two other parties gained seats, the new Dawn of Direct Democracy party and the Christian and Democratic Union – Czechoslovak People's Party.

Background

The previous election in May 2010, resulted in formation of the three party centre-right government ODSTOP09VV, representing 118 seats, and being led by Prime Minister Petr Nečas.

On 22 April 2012, after a split of Public Affairs (VV) over corruption accusations against the party leadership itself (especially Vít Bárta), the ruling coalition of Civic Democratic Party (ODS) and TOP 09 dissolved its coalition with Public Affairs, and it appeared as if early elections would be held in June 2012.[5] A breakaway fraction of Public Affairs led by Karolína Peake, was however shortly afterwards established as the party Liberal Democrats (LIDEM), who by effect entered and replaced VV in the three party government with ODS and TOP09. This slightly revised government constellation represented a total of 100 seats (ODS=51, TOP09=41, LIDEM=8), and as it also had additional backing from a group of independent MPs, it managed to win a subsequent vote of confidence on 27 April 2012, by 105 to 93 votes.[6][7]

On 17 June 2013, Prime Minister Petr Nečas resigned after a spying and corruption scandal. The leading opposition party, Czech Social Democratic Party (ČSSD), demanded dissolving the Chamber of Deputies and a snap election,[8] while the ODSTOP09LIDEM coalition argued they could still muster a majority for the governments continuation under Miroslava Němcová (ODS) as new prime minister, which they proposed to the Czech President.[9] As per 25 June 2013, the previous government alliance however only represented 98 seats (ODS=50, TOP09=42, LIDEM=6), and was thus also dependent upon support from independent MPs.[10][11] In order to proof existence of majority for the ODS led coalition, it submitted 101 MP signatures of support to the president, which included two extra independents being part of the LIDEM parliamentary group and the independent Michal Doktor (a former ODS party member).[12] In this given situation, Czech President Miloš Zeman decided unprecedentedly not to adhere to any of the political requests, but instead to appoint a caretaker government which he calls "government of experts", while his critics describe it as "government of Zeman's friends", with Jiří Rusnok as new prime minister.[13][14][15] Former Prime Minister Jan Fischer was named as finance minister.[16] Zeman emphasized that if the caretaker government, against his believe, could not muster majority support in the constitutionally required vote of confidence, taking place after 30 days in office, then he would award a second attempt for government formation to the ODS led coalition, provided it could still submit at least 101 MP signatures of renewed support.[17]

On 7 August 2013, the caretaker government of Jiří Rusnok lost the constitutionally required vote of confidence in parliament by 93 to 100 votes, with 7 opting not to vote. A simple majority of voting legislators was required to unseat the government, and this move was supported by all MPs from ODS, TOP09 and LIDEM; except from two ODS MPs and Karolína Peake from LIDEM, who broke the party ranks by opting not to vote.[18] The two dissenting ODS MPs, who both lost their membership of the party few hours after the vote, reasoned their decision by stating they agreed with the analysis published by Prague's ODS councilor Tomáš Hrdlička, pointing out that if ODS wanted to win the municipal elections in 2014, it now needed some time in opposition to rebuild its moral integrity through some serious self-reflection, which included to "critically evaluate the errors of his governance, with particular emphasis on unmet or even broken election promises to voters (i.e. not to increase taxes)".[19]

Following the vote, Karolína Peake decided to resign as leader of LIDEM,[20][21] and TOP09 stated that due to a lack of sufficient absolute support for a potentially renewed ODSTOP09LIDEM government, reflected by that the three coalition parties only mustered 100 nay votes in the confidence vote (which came three short of absolute majority, when considering two of the nay votes had been submitted by NS-LEV 21 who wanted a ČSSD led government[22]), they would now drop their support for renewal of such government, and instead support an early election. The ČSSD and Communist Party (KSČM) did likewise support an early election.[23][24][25]

Though the constitution of the Czech Republic allows the president two chances to offer someone an opportunity to form a new government, there is no time limit. As such the current caretaker government could in theory, despite of having lost the confidence vote, be allowed by the president to continue in its interim capacity till the election day, which might only arrive by the end of the legislative term in May 2014 - unless the parliament decides to hold a snap election by dissolving itself.[25] Never-the-less, the caretaker government decided voluntarily to resign immediately on 13 August 2013. This prompted the parliament to convene on 20 August with the agenda to decide, if the next step shall be, to dissolve the parliament with a call for new elections within 60 days, or in the alternative, to request the president shall start his second and final attempt to form a new government.[1]

A vote was to take place at 14:00 on 20 August on dissolution of the parliament. The four parties (TOP 09, ČSSD, KSČM and VV[26]) who had stated to support this motion, together represented more than the requisite minimum of 120 seats, corresponding to a 60% constitutional majority as per article 35(2) in the Czech constitution,[27] being needed to pass the resolution.[28] The spokeswoman of the president stated that in case of parliament being dissolved, the president would most likely schedule this event to happen on 25-26 October 2013.[29] On 20 August, the parliament indeed voted to approve the motion about dissolving itself, decided by 140 in favour of the motion and seven against; thus resulting in a new election within 60 days after presidential assent.[3][2] The president gave his approving assent for the dissolution of the parliament on 28 August, and scheduled the elections for 2526 October 2013.[4]

The police investigation into the Petr Nečas cabinet spying scandal, is set to be concluded ahead of the election in October.[30]

Incumbent parliament

The box below shows the distribution of seats in the incumbent Chamber of Deputies on 20 August 2013, at the last working day before the parliament was dissolved.

Distribution of seats in Chamber of Deputies On 20 August 2013[3]
ČSSD Czech Social Democratic Party 54
ODS Civic Democratic Party 48
TOP09 TOP 09 42
KSČM Communist Party 26
VV Public Affairs 11
LIDEM Liberal Democrats 8*[10]
LEV 21 - NS LEV 21 – National Socialists (Jiří Paroubek and Petr Benda)[31] 2[10]
Úsvit Dawn of Direct Democracy[32] (Radim Fiala) 1[10]
PSZ Pro Sport and Health[33] (Josef Dobeš)[34] 1[35]
JIH 12 Jihočeši 2012[36] (South Bohemian Regional Party: Michal Doktor)[37] 1[38]
- Independents 6

* Three of these eight members (Martin Vacek, Radim Vysloužil, Jana Suchá) were however not members of the LIDEM party itself, but just collaborated with the LIDEM parliamentary group as independents.[39][40]

Campaign

Opinion polls

Published Company ČSSD ODS TOP 09
STAN
KSČM ÚSVIT
(VV)
KDU
ČSL
SPOZ HV SZ DSSS PIRÁTI ANO 2011 others turnout
29 May 2010 Previous election 22.08 20.22 16.70 11.27 10.88 4.39 4.33 3.67 2.44 1.14 0.80 - 2.85 62.6
10 September 2013[78] TNS Aisa 28.0 9.5 13.0 15.5 5.5 4.5 5.5 <2 5.0 2.0 7.0 4.5
11 September 2013[79] Médea 27.4 9.9 10.2 15.7 9.1 4.7 4.1 1.6 3.2 2.0 13.1 1.0 70.0
12 September 2013[80] Sanep 26.2 9.9 13.9 16.2 3.7 5.2 6.9 3.3 6.1 9.8 56.2
16 September 2013[81] STEM 30.0 11.0 12.0 15.0 2.3 5.5 7.4 1.0 2.7 1.3 7.7 3.3 59.0
19 September 2013[82] ppm factum 26.2 8.0 13.8 16.7 2.5 6.7 5.1 1.7 2.3 10.9 6.1 52.7
24 September 2013[82] CVVM 30.5 7.0 12.5 19.5 2.5 4.5 5.5 2.0 14.0 2.0 62.0
26 September 2013[83] TNS Aisa 29.0 9.0 10.5 14.5 5.0 5.5 4.0 3.0 11.0 8.0
27 September 2013[84] STEM 28.0 12.5 11.0 17.0 2.5 5.5 5.5 1.0 3.3 10.0 4.1 65.0
6 October 2013[85] TNS Aisa 29.0 8.5 9.5 11.0 4.5 6.5 5.0 3.5 13.0 9.5
13 October 2013[86] TNS Aisa 28.5 6.5 11.0 12.5 5.0 6.0 4.5 3.5 2.0 12.5 8.0
14 October 2013[87] ppm factum 22.8 7.2 13.2 17.1 3.7 5.9 4.7 <2 3.7 <2 <2 12.1 9.6 62.6
16 October 2013[88] Médea 22.2 5.5 9.6 11.8 8.2 6.2 3.7 2.9 2.3 3.1 16.9 7.7 71.0
18 October 2013[89] STEM 25.9 8.6 11.5 13.3 5.9 4.5 2.6 1.0 2.6 0.7 3.1 16.1 4.2 67.0
19 October 2013[90] Median 25.5 8.0 13.0 16.0 4.0 6.0 5.0 3.0 2.0 13.0 2.0 60.0
20 October 2013[91] TNS Aisa 23.0 7.0 10.5 14.0 6.0 6.0 4.0 3.0 2.5 16.0 8.0
21 October 2013[92] CVVM 26.0 6.5 9.0 18.0 5.0 5.0 3.5 2.0 2.5 16.5 6.0 63.0
21 October 2013[93] Sanep 23.8 7.5 11.9 16.9 5.3 5.7 5.2 3.5 3.1 11.6 5.5 59.3

Previous polls

Opininon polls (indications of smaller parties can be inaccurate as the average is counted only from surveys reporting those parties)

Predictions of seats

Seat prediction for Czech parliamentary election for KSČM (red), ČSSD (orange), SZ (green), SPOZ (pink), VV (light blue), KDU-ČSL (yellow), ODS (blue), TOP 09 (purple)

Conduct of the election

According to a random draw carried out by the State Election Committee, the Czechs voting abroad, due to a lack of permanent residency in this country, will be choosing from candidates running in the Central Bohemian Region. This is a change from the last two general elections, where the random draw selected the South Bohemian Region to be open for votes from abroad.[239]

Results

Party Votes % +/– Seats +/–
Czech Social Democratic Party (ČSSD)1,016,82920.46–1.6250–6
ANO 2011927,24018.66New47New
Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSČM)741,04414.91+3.6433+7
TOP 09596,35712.00–4.7026–15
Civic Democratic Party (ODS)384,1747.73–12.5016–37
Dawn of Direct Democracy (ÚSVIT)342,3396.89New14New
Christian and Democratic Union – Czechoslovak People's Party (KDU-ČSL)336,9706.78+2.3914+14
Green Party (SZ)159,0253.20+0.7400
Czech Pirate Party (PIRÁTI)132,4172.66+1.8600
Party of Free Citizens (SVOBODNÍ)122,5642.47+1.7500
Party of Civic Rights – Zemanovci (SPOZ)75,1131.51–2.8200
Workers' Party of Social Justice (DSSS)42,9060.86–0.2400
Political Change Movement (Změna)28,5920.58New0New
Cheer up - voting bloc (HV)21,2410.43New0New
Sovereignty - common sense party (SSZR)13,5380.27–3.4000
Freeholders Party of Czech Republic (SSCR)13,0410.26New0New
The Crown of Bohemia (KČ)8,9320.18+0.1100
LEV 21 – National Socialists (LEV 21-NS)3,8430.08New0New
Active independent citizens (ANEO)1,2370.02New0New
Vote for Right Block www.cibulka.net (PB)1,2250.02New00
Roma Democratic Party (RDS)6090.01New0New
CITIZENS 2011 (OBČANÉ 2011)4550.01New0New
Club of Committed Non-Party Members (KAN)2930.00+0.000New
Invalid/blank votes37,228
Total5,007,2121002000
Registered voters/turnout8,424,22759.48
Source: Volby.cz
Popular vote
ČSSD
 
20.46%
ANO
 
18.66%
KSČM
 
14.91%
TOP 09
 
12.00%
ODS
 
7.73%
ÚSVIT
 
6.89%
KDU-ČSL
 
6.78%
SZ
 
3.20%
PIRÁTI
 
2.66%
SVOBODNÍ
 
2.47%
SPOZ
 
1.51%
Others
 
2.73%

Government formation

The Social Democrats (ČSSD) have said they were open to talking to all parties about the formation of a government.[240] ANO leader Babis said he could conceive of supporting a Social Democrat-led government (either a coalition with the Social Democrats, ANO and ODS, or ANO staying in opposition but agreeing to supporting a minority government led by the Social Democrats), but that this is not his priority and he opposes the Social Democrats' proposals for tax increases. He also indicated that he would seek to be Minister of Finance in any coalition cabinet.[241]

Immediately after the elections, two unofficial factions arose in the ČSSD, one supporting present chairman Bohuslav Sobotka and the other being led by Michal Hašek, ČSSD's leader in Moravia. Hasek, with support from president Miloš Zeman, issued a statement calling for Bohuslav Sobotka to resign his post as party chairman. ČSSD's leadership have already appointed Hašek as the lead negotiator in coalition talks due to take place with other parties. Only a few days previously, Michal Hašek had proclaimed his loyalty to Sobotka, and acknowledged him as the only leader of ČSSD. ČSSD members have organized meetings and rallies against Hašek, and Sobotka has compared Hašek to Fierlinger, ČSSD's pro-Communist leader from 1948 who forced the party to collaborate with the Communist regime.[242][243] Sobotka has the support of Jiří Dienstbier Jr., the party's most recent presidential candidate, while Hašek has the support of prominent party figures Jeroným Tejc and Lubomír Zaorálek. According to opinion polls, the situation is perceived by the public as an attempted leadership coup. Later, Hašek and his allies, because of popular and party support for Bohuslav Sobotka, resigned on many positions and lost much influence within the ČSSD. A new negotiation government-formation team has been created, led by Bohuslav Sobotka, in order to negotiate with ANO and KDU-ČSL.

On 11 November, the Social Democrats began coalition talks with ANO and Christian Democratic Union - Czechoslovak People Party. All of these parties agreed on progressive taxation, abolition of past government social reforms and a law about property origin. However, the Social democrats still disagree with KDU-ČSL concerning church restitutions.[244][245]

In late December, leaders of ČSSD, ANO and KDU-ČSL announced that they had agreed on a coalition government. The coalition agreement was signed on 6 January 2014. ČSSD, ANO and KDU-ČSL also presented a list of ministers.[246] ČSSD have eight ministries, ANO seven ministries and KDU-ČSL three ministries. The leader of ČSSD, Bohuslav Sobotka, will be prime minister. The leader of ANO, Andrej Babiš, will be deputy prime minister and minister of finance. The leader of KDU-ČSL, Pavel Bělobrádek will be second deputy Prime Minister.[247] Bohuslav Sobotka's Cabinet was sworn in on 29 January 2014.

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  79. "Průzkum: Babiš letí vzhůru! Velké strany mají problém".
  80. 1 2 "Volební preference (publikováno 12.9.2013)".
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  82. 1 2 3 "V ČR sílí podpora mimoparlamentních stran a levice)".
  83. "Průzkum pro ČT: ČSSD si drží pozici lídra, skokanem výzkumu je hnutí ANO".
  84. 1 2 "Stranické preference září II. 2013)".
  85. "ANO Jumps Dwindling Communists, Dawn and SPOZ on the precipice".
  86. "ČSSD out in first, ANO and Communists tied for second".
  87. 1 2 "Dosavadní trend pokračuje, podpora nových a neparlamentních stran mírně posiluje)".
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  89. 1 2 "STEM – VOLEBNÍ MODEL K POLOVINĚ ŘÍJNA 2013".
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  94. 1 2 "První volební model po nástupu nové vlády".
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  97. 1 2 "Volební model zůstává stabilní".
  98. 1 2 "Sanep: V září by vládní koalice přišla o devět mandátů".
  99. 1 2 "KDU-ČSL zpátky ve hře?".
  100. 1 2 "Stem – Preference Politických Stran -Říjen 2010".
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  102. 1 2 "Úspěch ČSSD a KDU-ČSL v podzimních volbách se potvrzuje i v "parlamentním" volebním modelu".
  103. 1 2 "Sanep: ČSSD zvyšuje náskok, TOP 09 předstihla ODS. * Vládní koalice by v listopadu přišla o 21 poslanců".
  104. 1 2 "Stem – Preference Politických Stran - Listopad 2010".
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  106. 1 2 "Sanep: Levice by poprvé od voleb získala ve sněmovně většinu".
  107. 1 2 "Stem – Preference Politických Stran -Prosinec 2010".
  108. 1 2 "Stranické preference a volební model v prosinci 2010" (PDF).
  109. 1 2 "Sanep: Kauza Drobil poškodila ODS, VV a levice posilují".
  110. 1 2 "Stem – Preference Politických Stran - Leden 2011".
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  112. 1 2 "Vládní koalice by získala křehkou většinu".
  113. 1 2 "Sanep: Kauzy Drobila a Vondry táhnou ODS ke dnu, třetina lidí si přeje předčasné volby".
  114. 1 2 "Stem – Preference Politických Stran - Únor 2011".
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  116. 1 2 "Vládní koalice by nezískala většinu".
  117. 1 2 "Sanep: ČSSD by aktuálně vyhrála volby, ODS se zvedá ze dna".
  118. 1 2 "Stem – Preference Politických Stran - Březen 2011".
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  120. 1 2 "Sanep: ČSSD by v březnu s převahou vyhrála poslanecké volby, ODS posiluje".
  121. "Poprvé od voleb možnost levicové většiny ve Sněmovně".
  122. 1 2 "Stem – Preference Politických Stran - Duben 2011".
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  124. 1 2 3 4 "Pravicová vládní koalice by nevznikla".
  125. 1 2 "Sanep: Levice nadále s převahou vítězí, vládní strany se dotkly dna".
  126. 1 2 "Stem – Preference Politických Stran - Květen 2011".
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  128. "Podpora Věcí Veřejných upadá".
  129. 1 2 "Sanep: Lidovci se do Sněmovny vrací, Věci veřejné ji opouštějí".
  130. 1 2 "Stem – Preference Politických Stran - Červen 2011".
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  133. 1 2 "V pestrobarevné Sněmovně by dominovala levice".
  134. 1 2 "Komunisté a lidovci posilují, VV zastavily propad, ČSSD, ODS a TOP 09 ztrácí".
  135. 1 2 "Stabilizace mírně levicové většiny".
  136. 1 2 "Sanep: Komunisté by v zářijových volbách byli ve Sněmovně třetí nejsilnější politickou stranou".
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  138. 1 2 "Levicové strany udržují převahu nad pravicovými".
  139. 1 2 "Stem – Preference Politických Stran - Září 2011".
  140. 1 2 "Strana Zelených se opět blíží pětiprocentní hranici".
  141. 1 2 "Sanep: I v říjnu by zvítězila ČSSD, KSČM nadále posiluje".
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  143. 1 2 "Stem – Preference Politických Stran - Říjen 2011".
  144. 1 2 "KDU-ČSL a Zelení namísto Věcí Veřejných?".
  145. 1 2 "Levicové strany v čele s ČSSD by i v listopadu ovládly Poslaneckou sněmovnu".
  146. 1 2 "Stem – Preference Politických Stran - Září - Listopad 2011".
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  148. 1 2 "TOP 09 opět posiluje, Zelení nemají nic jisté".
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  156. 1 2 "V Poslanecké sněmovně by zasedly jen 4 strany".
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  158. 1 2 "Volební preference (publikováno 8.3.2012)".
  159. 1 2 "Půjdeme slovenskou cestou?".
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  162. 1 2 "Levicové strany dál posilují".
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  173. 1 2 "Stem – Preference Politických Stran - Květen 2012".
  174. 1 2 3 "Kauza Rath poškodila ČSSD jen mírně".
  175. 1 2 "Volební preference (publikováno 13.6.2012)".
  176. 1 2 "Stem – Preference Politických Stran - Červen 2012".
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  179. 1 2 "Strana Miloše zemana by překročila pětiprocentní hranici".
  180. 1 2 "Volební preference (publikováno 11.7.2012)".
  181. 1 2 "Sociálním demokratům by nestačila podpora komunistů".
  182. 1 2 "Volební preference (publikováno 10.8.2012)".
  183. 1 2 "Zemanovci nabírají tempo".
  184. 1 2 "Volební preference (publikováno 11.9.2012)".
  185. 1 2 "Stem – Preference Politických Stran - Září 2012".
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  187. 1 2 "Komunisté se dotahují na ODS".
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  189. 1 2 "Stem – Preference Politických Stran - Říjen 2012".
  190. 1 2 "Před volbami klid".
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  193. 1 2 "Volební preference (publikováno 8.11.2012)".
  194. 1 2 "Stem – Preference Politických Stran - říjen/listopad 2012".
  195. 1 2 "ODS i po kongresu oslabuje".
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  198. 1 2 "Krajské koalice nezměnily celostátní preference".
  199. 1 2 "Volební preference - prosinec (publikováno 13.12.2012)".
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  203. 1 2 "Komunisté na začátku ledna ztráceli".
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  206. 1 2 "TOP 09 téměř dotáhla ODS".
  207. 1 2 "Volební preference - únor (publikováno 7.2.2013)".
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  211. 1 2 "ODS už ztratila třetinu své někdejší podpory".
  212. 1 2 "Volební preference - březen (publikováno 12.3.2013)".
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  216. 1 2 "ČSSD by si mohla vybírat".
  217. 1 2 "Volební preference - duben (publikováno 11.4.2013)".
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  221. 1 2 "Levý střed posiluje".
  222. 1 2 "Volební preference - květen (publikováno 13.5.2013)".
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  226. "Bude jediným řešením "duhová" koalice?".
  227. 1 2 "Volební preference - červen (publikováno 13.6.2013)".
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  231. 1 2 "Podpora ODS na historickém minimu".
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  233. 1 2 "Volební preference (publikováno 11.7.2013)".
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  235. 1 2 "Volební preference (publikováno 15.8.2013)".
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  238. 1 2 "Nový průzkum: levice na ústupu, po volbách by mohla mít problém".
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