Next Andalusian parliamentary election

Next Andalusian parliamentary election

On or before 21 May 2019

All 109 seats of the Parliament of Andalusia 55 seats needed for a majority Opinion polls   Leader Susana Díaz Juan Manuel Moreno Teresa Rodríguez Party PSOE-A PP Podemos Leader since 7 September 2013 1 March 2014 9 February 2015 Last election 47 seats, 35.4% 33 seats, 26.7% 15 seats, 14.9% Current seats 47 33 15 Seats needed 8 22 40   Leader Juan Marín Antonio Maíllo Party C's IU Leader since 6 February 2014 16 June 2013 Last election 9 seats, 9.3% 5 seats, 6.9% Current seats 9 5 Seats needed 46 50

Incumbent President Susana Díaz PSOE-A

The next Andalusian parliamentary election will be held no later than 2019, to elect the 11th Parliament of Andalusia, the regional legislature of the Spanish autonomous community of Andalusia. At stake will be all 109 seats to the Parliament, determining the President of the Regional Government of Andalusia.

After the result of the March 2015 election, the political scenario turned more unstable than it was in the previous parliament. Shortly after the election, the People's Party (PP) announced it would vote against Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOE) candidate Susana Díaz in the investiture voting.^[1] The announce came as a shock to many, as the party had assured during the electoral campaign that it would allow the most-voted party to access government, implicitly suggesting a possible abstention in Susana Díaz' vote.^[2]

Newcomers Podemos (Spanish for "We can") and Citizens (C's) remained reluctant to support a new PSOE government, and were expected to also vote against Díaz,^[3][4] while former Díaz' coalition partner United Left (IU) has not enough seats to prevent any possible blocking of Díaz' election.^[5] Finally, after the 2015 Spanish regional and municipal elections were held, C's agreed to support Díaz investiture on less harsher conditions than initially required, in order to end the parliamentary deadlock and prevent a new election.^[6]

Electoral system

The 109 members of the Parliament of Andalusia are elected in 8 multi-member districts, corresponding to Andalusia's eight provinces, using the D'Hondt method and a closed-list proportional representation system. Each district is entitled to an initial minimum of 8 seats, with the remaining 45 seats allocated among the eight provinces in proportion to their populations, on the condition that the number of seats in each district do not exceed 2 times those of any other.

Voting is on the basis of universal suffrage in a secret ballot. Only lists polling above 3% of the total vote in each district (which includes blank ballots—for none of the above) are entitled to enter the seat distribution.^[7][8]

Latest possible date

The next parliamentary election cannot be held later than Thursday 21 May 2019. This date is determined as follows:

Law	Requirement	Comments
Statute of Autonomy: Article 101.2[8]	Parliament is elected for four years. Deputies' term shall end four years after election (...).	The 2015 election was held on 22 March 2015. Four years after 22 March 2015 is 22 March 2019.
Statute of Autonomy: Article 104.3[8]	Election will be held between 30 and 60 days after the term's end.	60 days after 22 March 2019 is 21 May 2019.

Opinion polls

Vote

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. However, if such date is unknown, the date of publication will be given instead.

Polling Firm/Link	Last Date of Polling						Margin of Error	Sample Size	Lead
Deimos Statistics	February 25, 2016	33.7	25.7	18.1	15.8	4.3	±0.3 pp	80,567	8.0
CADPEA	February 9, 2016	32.1	25.3	17.2	13.0	8.0	±2.8 pp	1,200	6.8
General Election	December 20, 2015	31.5	29.1	16.9	13.8	5.8			2.4
Celeste-Tel	September 28, 2015	37.7	25.8	14.1	12.0	5.3	±2.8 pp	1,200	11.9
CADPEA	July 18, 2015	32.5	21.9	19.2	14.1	6.0	±2.8 pp	1,200	10.6
Municipal Elections	May 24, 2015	34.3	30.2		5.4	11.0			4.1
Metroscopia	May 12, 2015	37.1	20.0	15.1	15.5	6.7	±3.2 pp	1,000	17.1
Regional Election	March 22, 2015	35.4	26.7	14.9	9.3	6.9			8.7

Parliamentary seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 55 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.

55 seats needed for a majority

Polling Firm/Link	Last Date of Polling
Deimos Statistics	February 25, 2016	41	30	19	17	2
General Election	December 20, 2015	(39)	(35)	(17)	(14)	(4)
Celeste-Tel	September 28, 2015	48	31	14	13	3
Regional Election	March 22, 2015	47	33	15	9	5

References

1. "The PP will vote against Susana Díaz so that PSOE 'portrays' itself with Podemos or C's" (in Spanish). El Confidencial. 2015-03-24.
2. "The PP announces now that it will vote 'no' in Susana Díaz' investiture voting" (in Spanish). El País. 2015-03-24.
3. "Citizens will vote against Susana Díaz' investiture" (in Spanish). ABC. 2015-03-23.
4. "Podemos makes Díaz to wait" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2015-03-25.
5. "PP-A's 'no' forces all other parties to position themselves". El Diario. 2015-03-25.
6. "Susana Díaz will be invested on Thursday after the agreement with Citizens" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2015-06-09.
7. "Law 1/1986, of 2 January, electoral of Andalusia".
8. "Statute of Autonomy of Andalusia (2007); Title IV. Chapter I. The Parliament of Andalusia". noticias.juridicas.com. Retrieved 2015-03-28.