Andalusian parliamentary election, 2008

Andalusian parliamentary election, 2008

9 March 2008

All 109 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia 55 seats needed for a majority Opinion polls Registered 6,231,087 3.0% Turnout 4,528,271 (72.7%) 2.0 pp   First party Second party Third party   Leader Manuel Chaves Javier Arenas Diego Valderas Party PSOE-A PP IU Leader since 19 April 1990 18 April 2004 10 October 2000 Last election 61 seats, 50.4% 37 seats, 31.8% 6 seats, 7.5% Seats won 56 47 6 Seat change 5 10 ±0 Popular vote 2,178,296 1,730,154 317,562 Percentage 48.4% 38.5% 7.1% Swing 2.0 pp 6.7 pp 0.4 pp

Province-level units won by PSOE-A (red) and PP (blue).

President before election Manuel Chaves PSOE-A Elected President Manuel Chaves PSOE-A

The 2008 Andalusian parliamentary election was held on Sunday, 9 March 2008, to elect the 8th Parliament of Andalusia, the regional legislature of the Spanish autonomous community of Andalusia. At stake were all 109 seats in the Parliament, determining the President of the Regional Government of Andalusia. It was held concurrently with the countrywide general election held on the same day.^[1][2]

Incumbent Socialist Manuel Chaves González, who had been ruling for more than a decade, was re-elected with a slightly reduced majority, but still able to govern alone. The Andalusian Party failed to enter the regional parliament for the first time, while the People's Party of Javier Arenas won 47 seats over the 37 they had held in the previous legislature.^[3][4]

Electoral system

The 109 members of the Parliament of Andalusia were elected in 8 multi-member districts, corresponding to Andalusia's eight provinces, using the D'Hondt method and a closed-list proportional representation system. Each district was entitled to an initial minimum of 8 seats, with the remaining 45 seats allocated among the eight provinces in proportion to their populations, on the condition that the number of seats in each district did not exceed 2 times those of any other. For the 2008 election, seats were distributed as follows: Almeria (12), Cadiz (15), Cordoba (12), Granada (13), Huelva (11), Jaen (12), Malaga (16) and Seville (18).

Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage in a secret ballot. Only lists polling above 3% of valid votes in each district (which includes blank ballots—for none of the above) were entitled to enter the seat distribution.^[5][6]

Background

With the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) regaining its absolute majority in Andalusia in the 2004 election, Manuel Chaves was able to govern alone again, after 10 years of minority government, having relied on the support of the Andalusian Party in the previous 8 years. Teófila Martínez, who had been PP candidate for President of Andalusia in the previous two elections (1996 and 2000), was replaced by Javier Arenas as head of the Andalusian People's Party (PP). Arenas had been PP candidate in the 1994 and 1996 elections, but left the PP regional leadership in order to become Spain's Minister of Labor and Social Affairs in the Aznar cabinet and, later, Secretary-General of the People's Party.

Concurrently in 2004, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero from PSOE was elected as Spain's new Prime Minister, after unexpectedly winning the 2004 general election. This meant that, for the first time since 1996, both the regional and national governments were ruled by the same party.

The province of Almeria, due to a growth in population over both the total of Andalusia and the previous elections in 2004, won a seat for a total of 12 to the loss of Cordoba, which also remained at 12.

Opinion polls

Vote

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. However, if such date is unknown, the date of publication will be given instead.

Date	Polling Firm/Source	PSOE	PP	IU	PA	Oth.	Lead
9 Mar 2008	Regional Election	48.4	38.5	7.1	2.8	3.2	9.9
9 Mar	TNS-Demoscopia	47.0	33.3	8.6	7.1	4.0	13.7
Exit polls
2 Mar	IMC	48.9	39.0	6.8	4.0	1.3	9.9
1 Mar	Metroscopia	48.6	37.2	8.4		5.8	11.4
21–26 Feb	Sigma-2	47.6	38.5	7.0	3.7	3.2	9.1
25 Feb	IMC	49.6	38.7	6.7	3.5	1.5	10.9
18–21 Feb	Sigma-2	46.8	38.4	6.5	4.6	3.7	8.4
18 Feb	IMC	49.4	38.9	6.5	3.0	2.2	10.5
11 Feb	IMC	49.7	38.6	6.1	3.2	2.4	11.1
31 Jan–7 Feb	Nexo	46.9	37.3	7.3	4.5	4.0	9.6
6 Feb	Opina	49.0	35.0	7.0	4.0	5.0	14.0
21 Jan–4 Feb	CIS	49.2	36.8	6.6	4.1	3.3	12.4
17–24 Jan	Nexo	45.2	37.3	7.3	4.2	6.0	7.9
15 Jan	IAC	45.6	39.3	7.2	4.5	3.4	6.3
10 Dec–12 Jan	CADPEA	48.8	34.2	6.8	4.8	5.4	14.6
8–10 Jan	TNS-Demoscopia	46.3	37.7	6.0	5.1	4.9	8.6
2008
10 Oct–9 Nov	IESA	49.1	36.7	7.3	4.9	2.0	12.4
5–7 Sep	PA	48.3	36.1	7.6	6.4	1.6	12.2
11 Jun–9 Jul	CADPEA	48.9	33.6	7.7	5.5	4.3	15.3
31 Jan–28 Feb	Nexo	45.9	34.1	7.2	6.9	5.9	11.8
21–22 Feb	Opina	48.0	33.0	7.5	5.5	6.0	15.0
19–22 Feb	Sigma-2	47.8	36.3	7.2	5.0	3.7	11.5
19–22 Feb	IAC	45.3	37.2			17.5	8.1
2007
17 Dec	ESTIO	45.1	34.5	7.3	5.8	7.3	10.6
15 Dec	IESA	50.6	32.8	7.9	5.3	3.4	17.8
10 Nov–12 Dec	CADPEA	49.4	31.3	8.1	4.7	6.5	18.1
20 Jun–16 Jul	CADPEA	49.5	34.7	7.8	4.8	3.2	14.8
18–25 May	ESTIO	47.5	34.5	7.5	4.2	6.3	13.0
8–11 May	Metroscopia	46.8	38.6	7.0	4.1	3.5	8.2
28 Feb	Sigma-2	46.0	39.2	6.6	4.5	3.7	6.8
26 Feb	Ipsos	48.8	32.6	6.8	7.2	4.6	16.2
26 Feb	ESTIO	48.5	34.6	6.9	5.9	4.1	13.9
13–15 Feb	Opina	47.0	33.5	7.5	6.5	5.5	13.5
6–8 Feb	Nexo	45.6	34.6	6.5	6.6	6.7	11.0
10–17 Jan	Metroscopia	52.1	32.4	7.2	5.6	2.7	19.7
2006
15 Nov–4 Dec	CADPEA	47.5	34.5	7.5	5.4	5.1	13.0
14 Nov–3 Dec	IESA	47.8	33.3	7.0	6.4	5.5	14.5
23–30 Nov	ESTIO	48.3	33.3	7.9	5.2	5.3	15.0
14–15 Nov	Sigma-2	47.8	37.3	6.3	5.1	3.5	10.5
22–29 Sep	Metroscopia[lower-alpha 1]	50.6	29.8	8.7	5.0	5.9	20.8
1–22 Jul	CADPEA	48.1	35.3	7.8	5.1	3.7	12.8
1–6 Jul	Metroscopia[lower-alpha 1]	49.5	32.8	5.0	6.8	5.9	16.7
27 Apr–4 May	Metroscopia[lower-alpha 1]	52.5	31.2	7.8	4.9	3.6	21.3
28 Feb	Ipsos	50.0	29.8	7.2	7.7	5.3	20.2
28 Feb	Opina	51.0	32.5	7.5	6.5	2.5	18.5
26 Feb	Insight	49.5	34.8	6.4	5.0	4.3	14.7
22 Feb	Nexo	51.6	30.8	7.6	6.2	3.8	20.8
15–18 Feb	Sigma-2	50.0	34.2	6.8	5.3	3.7	15.8
15 Jan	IESA	50.5	32.5	8.1	6.6	2.3	18.0
2005
24 Nov–20 Dec	CADPEA	50.9	31.4	7.8	5.5	4.4	19.5
15 Nov–3 Dec	IESA	49.2	33.9	8.4	6.3	2.2	15.3
20 Nov	Insight	49.6	33.7	7.2	5.4	4.1	15.9
13–18 Oct	Synovate	55.0	32.0	7.0	5.0	1.0	23.0
13 Jun 2004	EP Election	54.4	36.1	5.1	2.6	1.8	18.3
14 Mar 2004	Regional Election	50.4	31.8	7.5	6.2	4.1	18.6

Seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 55 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.

55 seats needed for majority

Date	Polling Firm/Source	PSOE	PP	IU	PA	Others
9 Mar 2008	Regional Election	56	47	6	0	0
9 Mar	TNS-Demoscopia	56−58	44−46	4−6	2−3	0
9 Mar	Demométrica	55−58	42−44	5−6	3−5	0
9 Mar	Ipsos-Eco	58−62	42−45	4−5	0	0
Exit polls
2 Mar	IMC	54−58	43−47	4−6	0−3	0
1 Mar	Metroscopia	57−59	41−42	8	1−2	0
21–26 Feb	Sigma-2	56−58	44−47	5−7	1	0
18–21 Feb	Sigma-2	55−57	45−47	6	1−2	0
31 Jan–7 Feb	Nexo	54−55	42−43	8	4	0
6 Feb	Opina	56−59	44−46	5−6	1	0
21 Jan–4 Feb	CIS	59	43	6	1	0
17–24 Jan	Nexo	53−54	43−44	8	4	0
15 Jan	IAC	53−54	47−48	5−6	2−3	0
10 Dec–12 Jan	CADPEA	57−59	41−43	5−7	2−4	0
8–10 Jan	TNS-Demoscopia	56−58	46−48	3	2	0
2008
5–7 Sep	PA	55−58	40−42	5−6	5−6	0
31 Jan–28 Feb	Nexo	54−58	36−38	6−8	6−8	0
21–22 Feb	Opina	58−61	39−40	6−7	3−4	0
19–22 Feb	Sigma-2	55−58	43−48	5−6	1−2	0
2007
8–11 May	Metroscopia	56−57	43−44	6	3	0
28 Feb	Ipsos	60−61	38−39	5−6	4−5	0
28 Feb	Sigma-2	54−59	45−50	4	1	0
13–15 Feb	Opina	56−57	40−41	6	6	0
6–8 Feb	Nexo	55−57	40−42	6	6	0
10–17 Jan	Metroscopia	62	37	6	4	0
2006
28 Feb	Ipsos	61	35−36	6	6−7	0
28 Feb	Opina	60	38	6	5	0
2005
14 Mar 2004	Regional Election	61	37	6	5	0

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 9 March 2008 Andalusian Parliament election results →

Party		Vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Won	+/−
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE-A)	2,178,296	48.41	1.95	56	5
	People's Party (PP)	1,730,154	38.45	6.67	47	10
	United Left The Greens-Assembly for Andalusia (IULV-CA)	317,562	7.06	0.45	6	±0
	Andalusian Coalition (CA)	124,243	2.76	3.40	0	5
	Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)	27,712	0.62	New	0	±0
	The Greens (LV)	25,886	0.58	New	0	±0
	Party of Almeria (PdeAL)	14,806	0.33	New	0	±0
	Andalusian Convergence (CAnda)	7,862	0.17	New	0	±0
	Citizens-Party of the Citizenry (C's)	6,024	0.13	New	0	±0
	Republican Left (IR)	4,815	0.11	0.04	0	±0

Parties with less than 0.1% of the vote		14,333	0.32	–	0	±0
	Humanist Party (PH)	3,951	0.09	0.04	0	±0
	Communist Party of the Andalusian People (PCPA-PCPE)	2,743	0.06	New	0	±0
	Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn)	2,729	0.06	New	0	±0
	Spanish Falange of the JONS (FE-JONS)	1,763	0.04	0.06	0	±0
	Andalusian Social Democratic Party (PSDA)	1,477	0.03	0.01	0	±0
	Family and Life Party (PFyV)	890	0.02	New	0	±0
	Christian Positivist Party (PPCr)	780	0.02	New	0	±0

	Blank ballots	47,920	1.06	0.33
Total		4,499,613	100.00		109	±0
Valid votes		4,499,613	99.37	0.02
Invalid votes		28,658	0.63	0.02
Votes cast / turnout		4,528,271	72.67	1.99
Abstentions		1,702,816	27.33	1.99
Registered voters		6,231,087
Source: Argos Information Portal

Vote share
PSOE-A			48.41%
PP			38.45%
IULV-CA			7.06%
CA			2.76%
Others			2.25%
Blank ballots			1.06%

Parliamentary seats
PSOE-A			51.38%
PP			43.12%
IULV-CA			5.50%

Results by province

Notes

1. This poll only includes data calculated over electorate figures and not over valid votes. Vote estimation has been manually calculated using a rule of three and the data made available by the pollster.

References

1. Electoral Calendar- world elections,US elections,presidential election,world parties
2. Spain's Zapatero launches campaign for second mandate - Forbes.com
3. Parties and Elections in Europe
4. Parties and Elections in Europe
5. "Law 1/1986, of 2 January, electoral of Andalusia".
6. "Statute of Autonomy of Andalusia (2007); Title IV. Chapter I. The Parliament of Andalusia". noticias.juridicas.com. Retrieved 2015-03-28.