Serbian parliamentary election, 2016

Serbian parliamentary election, 2016

24 April 2016

All 250 seats in the National Assembly 126 seats needed for a majority Turnout 56.07%   First party Second party Third party   Leader Aleksandar Vučić Ivica Dačić Vojislav Šešelj Party SNS SPS - JS SRS Leader since 2012 2003 1991 Seats before 170 33 0 Seats won 131 / 250 29 / 250 22 / 250 Seat change 39 4 22 Popular vote 1,823,147 413,770 306,052 Percentage 48.25% 10.95% 8.60%   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Saša Radulović Bojan Pajtić Sanda Rašković Ivić Party DJB DS Dveri - DSS Leader since 2014 2014 2014 Seats before 0 21 0 Seats won 16 / 250 16 / 250 13 / 250 Seat change 16 5 13 Popular vote 227,626 227,589 190,530 Percentage 6.02% 6.02% 5.03%   Seventh party   Leader Boris Tadić Party SDS - LDP - LSV Leader since 2014 Seats before 15 Seats won 13 / 250 Seat change 2 Popular vote 189,564 Percentage 5.02%

Prime Minister before election Aleksandar Vučić SNS Elected Prime Minister Aleksandar Vučić SNS

Parliamentary elections were held in Serbia on 24 April 2016.^[1] They were originally due to be held by March 2018, but on 17 January 2016 Prime Minister Aleksandar Vučić called for a snap election claiming Serbia "needs four more years of stability so that it is ready to join the European Union". The parliamentary elections were held simultaneously with provincial election in Vojvodina and state-wide local elections.

The total turnout was 56%. Vučić's Serbian Progressive Party-led coalition retained its majority, winning 131 of the 250 seats. In contrast to the 2014 elections, a record-breaking seven non-minority lists passed the 5% threshold. Several parties returned to the National Assembly, including the Serbian Radical Party, the Liberal Democratic Party and the Democratic Party of Serbia, while three parties entered for the first time; the liberal Enough is Enough, the conservative Dveri (in coalition with the Democratic Party of Serbia) and the Green Party (as a Slovak ethnic minority list).

Vučić announced formation of the new government by early June.^[2] He stated that the Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians were the only certain partners in the cabinet, and remained ambiguous about the future cooperation with the Socialist Party of Serbia, the coalition partners in the previous government.^[3]

Electoral system

The 250 members of the National Assembly are elected by proportional representation in a single nationwide constituency with a 5% electoral threshold (with the percentages calculated including the invalid and blank votes cast), although the threshold is disregarded for coalitions representing ethnic minorities. Seats are allocated using the d'Hondt method.^[4]

Campaign

In November 2014 Dveri and the Democratic Party of Serbia declared that they would contest the elections as the "Patriotic Bloc" alliance.^[5] In January 2015 PULS and SLS also joined the bloc.^[6]

On 19 February 2016, the Party of United Pensioners of Serbia (PUPS) decided to leave the coalition with SPS, and sign an agreement with SNS,^[7] as did the SDPS.^[8]

DS, SDS and the LDP agreed to form a coalition called "Democratic Serbia - DS-LDP-SDS", with Dragoljub Mićunović as the leader.^[9] However, on 28 February DS leader Bojan Pajtić said that his party would not join the SDS and the LDP in a pre-election coalition.^[10]

Electoral lists

The Republic Electoral Commission (RIK) published an official list of competing parties and coalitions.^[11]

Ballot number	Ballot name	Ballot carrier	Note
1	Aleksandar Vučić – Serbia Is Winning Serbian Progressive Party, Social Democratic Party of Serbia, Party of United Pensioners of Serbia, New Serbia, Serbian Renewal Movement, Movement of Socialists, Strength of Serbia Movement, Independent Democratic Party of Serbia, Serbian People's Party[12]	Aleksandar Vučić
2	For A Just Serbia – Democratic Party Democratic Party, New Party, Reformist Party, Movement "I live for The Frontier", Democratic Alliance of Croats in Vojvodina, Together for Serbia, Together for Šumadija[13]	Bojan Pajtić
3	Ivica Dačić – SPS – JS – Dragan Marković Palma Socialist Party of Serbia, United Serbia, Greens of Serbia, Communist Party[14]	Ivica Dačić
4	Dr Vojislav Šešelj — Serbian Radical Party Serbian Radical Party[15]	Vojislav Šešelj
5	Dveri – DSS – Sanda Rašković Ivić – Boško Obradović Dveri, Democratic Party of Serbia, Serbian Liberal Council, New Serbian Political Thought [16]	Sanda Rašković Ivić
6	Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians — István Pásztor Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians, Democratic Party of Vojvodina Hungarians, Party of Hungarian Unity[17]	István Pásztor	^M
7	Boris Tadić, Čedomir Jovanović – Alliance for a Better Serbia – LDP, LSV, SDS Liberal Democratic Party of Serbia, League of Social Democrats of Vojvodina, Social Democratic Party[18]	Nenad Čanak
8	Muamer Zukorlić – Bosniak Democratic Union of Sandžak Bosniak Democratic Union[19]	Muamer Zukorlić	^M
9	Party of Democratic Action of Sandžak – Dr. Sulejman Ugljanin Party of Democratic Action of Sandžak[20]	Sulejman Ugljanin	^M
10	For a Free Serbia – Oathkeepers – Milica Đurđević Srpski Sabor Zavetnici[21]	Božidar Zečević
11	Citizen's group – For Serb revival – Prof. Dr. Slobodan Komazec	Jovan Deretić
12	Russian Party – Slobodan Nikolić Russian Party[22]	Slobodan Nikolić
13	Republican Party – Nikola Sandulović Republican Party[23]	Nikola Sandulović
14	Serbo-Russian Movement – Slobodan Dimitrijević East Alternative, Serbian League, Serbian Fatherland Front, Veterans Movement, Hungarian League[24]	Dragan Todorović
15	Borko Stefanović – Serbia for all of us Serbian Left, Movement for Reversal, Social Democratic Union, New Pensioners Association[25]	Borko Stefanović
16	Dialogue – Youth with a stance – Stanko Debeljaković[26]	Stanko Debeljaković
17	It's enough – Restart - Saša Radulović[27]	Saša Radulović
18	Party for Democratic Action – Ardita Sinani Party for Democratic Action[28]	Ardita Sinani	^M
19	Green Party Green Party[29]	Goran Čabradi	^M
20	Out of Spite – United for Serbia – National Alliance Third Serbia, National Network[30]	Vladan Glišić

^M — National minority list

Opinion polls

Most opinion polls predicted that the SNS was going to fare around 50%, while their partners in the ruling coalition SPS were stable at above 10%. Serbian Radical Party, strengthened by the return of their leader Vojislav Šešelj from the Hague Tribunal, seemed the only party certain to make it to the Parliament with the support of 6–8% polled, while all other major lists undulated around the 5% threshold.

Date	Polling Firm	SNS et al.	SPS JS	DS	SRS	Dveri	DSS	SDS	LDP	DJB	Others	Lead
2016
21 Apr	CeSid	54.0	11.0	5.0	7.0	5.0		6.0 (+LSV)		6.0	–	43.0
20 Apr	Faktor Plus	50.9	12.3	5.5	7.9	5.2		5.1 (+LSV)		4.6	–	38.6
20 Apr	Ninamedia	47.2	13.3	5.1	9.3	6.3		5.6 (+LSV)		4.9	–	33.9
20 Apr	NSPM	44.8	12.7	7.5	9.8	6.3		6.9 (+LSV)		4.2	–	32.1
19 Apr	ProPozitiv	50.6	11.4	4.9	8.2	5.6		6.9 (+LSV)		5.3	–	39.2
mid–Apr	FPN ^[a]	27.2	11.6	5.6	17.5	8.1		12.0 (+LSV)		8.8	–	9.7
11 Apr	Faktor Plus	50.9	12.3	5.7	7.8	5.1		5.0 (+LSV)		4.5	–	38.3
31 Mar	ProPozitiv	52.4	12.3	4.6	6.5	7.4		7.3 (+LSV)		5.7	–	40.1
28–31 Mar	CeSID	53.0	13.0	5.0	7.0	8.0		6.0 (+LSV)		5.0	–	40
27 Mar	Faktor Plus	52.6	11.9	6.1	6.1	5.5		5.0 (+LSV)		3.3	–	40.7
3 Mar	Faktor Plus	49.4	12.7	6.4	6.0	5.7		5.0 (+LSV)		3	–	36.7
28 Jan–7 Feb	NSPM	44.9	11.8	10.8	7.0	6.8		8.5 (+LSV)		3.4	–	33.1
3 Feb	Faktor Plus	49.5	12.0	6.8	6.0	5.6		5.2 (+LSV)		2.3	–	37.5
2015
20–27 Dec	Ninamedia Research	47.7	11.1	6.0	5.9	4.0	2.4	4.8		–	–	36.6
15–25 Dec	Faktor Plus	51.4	9.5	6.5	6.0	5.2		4.1		2.2	–	41.9
c. 24 Dec	Ipsos Strategic Marketing	52.0	11.0	5.9	6.2	5.0	–	6.9		–	–	41.0
mid–Dec	Ipsos Strategic Marketing	52^[b]	10^[b]	5^[b]	3^[b]	5^[b]	2^[b]	4^[b]	2^[b]	2^[b]	–	42
25 Nov–3 Dec	NSPM	42.1	10.7	11.1	5.3	4.9	3.5	3.0	2.8	2.8	–	31.0
24–30 Nov	Faktor Plus	51.6	8.7	6.5	6.2	3.1	2.8	2.9	1.3	2.0	–	42.9
24–27 Nov	Ipsos Strategic Marketing	52	10	5	5	4	3	7		–	–	42
26–30 Oct	Faktor Plus	51.5	8.7	6.0	6.6	3.3	2.9	2.8	1.2	2.0	–	42.8
10–18 Oct	NSPM	45.8	10.4	9.4	5.8	4.5	3.9	3.2	2.5	1.6	–	35.4
c. 12 Oct	Ipsos Strategic Marketing	50	10	5–6	5–6	–	–	–	–	–	–	40
1–7 Oct	Ninamedia Research	48.1	14.3 (+PUPS)	5.8	6.2	3.2^[c]	3.0^[c]	3.3	2.6	2.2	–	33.8
25 Sep–4 Oct	Ipsos Strategic Marketing	54^[d]	9^[d]	5^[d]	6^[d]	3^[d]	4^[d]	2^[d]	3^[d]	2^[d]	–	45
25–30 Sep	Faktor Plus	51.5	8.8	7.0	6.0	3.1	3.0	3.0	1.2	1.5	–	42.7
5–14 Sep	NSPM	39.1	11.6	11.1	5.9	4.6	4.3	2.8	3.3	2.3	–	27.5
late Aug–early Sep	Ipsos Strategic Marketing ^[e]	48	10	6	4	3	3	4	5	3	–	38
26–30 Aug	Faktor Plus	51.0	9.0^[f]	7.0	5.8	2.9	2.8	3.1	1.2	1.0	–	42.0
24–30 Jul	Faktor Plus	50.7	9.2^[g]	7.1	5.8	2.8^[g]	2.5^[g]	3.0	1.2	1.0	–	41.5
18–26 Jun	NSPM	45.0	10.7	10.9	3.5	4.5	4.0	3.4	–	0.8	–	34.1
18–25 Jun	Faktor Plus	50.5	9.3	7.0	6.4	2.9	2.2	3.2	1.2	1.0	–	41.2
21–27 May	Faktor Plus	50.6	9.5	7.0	6.1	3.0	2.0	3.1	1.3	1.2	–	41.1
late May	Ipsos Strategic Marketing	50.0	12.0 (+PUPS)	6.1	6.8	6.6		4.9[31]	2.5	1.4	–	38.0
25–29 Apr	Faktor Plus ^[h]	52.1	9.5	8.3	6.4	–	–	4.1	–	–	–	42.6
17–24 Apr	Faktor Plus	50.8	10.1	7.2	6.0	3.5	1.9	3.3	1.3	1.4	–	40.7
10–22 Apr	NSPM	42.4	10.7	12.5	6.1	4.2	4.8	2.4	2.4	0.8	–	29.9
30 Mar–3 Apr	Faktor Plus	50.6	10.8	7.1	4.8	3.7	2.0	3.4	1.5	1.6	–	39.8
early Mar	Faktor Plus	50.1	10.2	7.1	4.6	3.9	1.8	3.2	1.7	1.6	–	39.9
24–30 Jan	TNS Medium Gallup ^[i]	48.7	6.4^[i]	3.2	3.4	2.2	0.8	3.6	1.6	–	–	42.3
2014–2015
27 Dec–5 Jan	NSPM	47.9	12.0	10.8	3.3	3.4	4.4	3.9	2.7	0.7	–	35.9
2014
16–19 Dec	Faktor Plus	51.1	10.8	6.6	4.6	3.9	1.1	4.5	1.0	–	–	40.3
late Nov	Faktor Plus	51.0	10.5	6.5	4.6	3.8	–	4.5	–	–	–	40.5
late Nov	Ipsos Strategic Marketing	50	10	6	3	5	3	3	3	3	–	40
10–15 Oct	NSPM	46.7	13.3	6.5	3.7	3.1	3.4	5.9	3.7	–	–	33.4
8–10 Oct	Faktor Plus	50.5	10.8	6.1	3.0	2.6	–	4.8	–	–	–	39.7
24 Sep–1 Oct	Ninamedia Research	49.6	10.9	5.9	3.4	5.1	4.1	4.5	3.1	2.2	–	38.7
mid–Sep	Faktor Plus	50.5	11.0	5.9	3.1	2.0	–	4.8	–	–	–	39.5
9–13 Aug	Faktor Plus	50.6	11.0	5.2	3.9	–	–	4.8	–	–	–	39.6
26 Jun–2 Jul	Faktor Plus	50.5	10.5	6.1	4.3	–	–	5.6	–	–	–	40.0
27–29 May	Faktor Plus	50.1	12.8	6.2	–	–	–	5.8	–	–	–	37.3
22–29 May	Danas	55	13 (+PUPS)	5	3	4	4	5	5	2	–	42
mid–Apr	Faktor Plus	51.1	12.5	6.3	–	–	3.9	5.9	–	–	–	38.6
16 Mar 2014	Election result	48.4	13.5 (+PUPS)	6.0	2.0	3.6	4.2	5.7	3.4	2.1	8.0	34.9

Results

  SNS–SDPS–PUPS–NS–SPO–PS–SNP  (131)

  SPS–JS–ZS–KP  (29)

  SRS  (22)

  DJB   (16)

  DS–Nova–ZZS–ZZŠ   (16)

  Dveri−DSS  (13)

  SDS–LDP–LSV  (13)

  National minorities  (10)

Party	Votes	%	Seats	+/–
Serbia is Winning (SNS–SDPS–PUPS–NS–SPO–PS–PSS–NDSS–SNP)	1,823,147	48.25	131	–39
SPS–JS–ZS–KP	413,770	10.95	29	–4
Serbian Radical Party	306,052	8.10	22	+22
Enough is Enough	227,626	6.02	16	+16
For a Just Serbia (DS–NS–RS–DSHV–ZZS–ZZŠ)	227,589	6.02	16	–5
Dveri–DSS	190,530	5.03	13	+13
Alliance for a Better Serbia (LDP–LSV–SDS)	189,564	5.02	13	–2
VMSZ–VMDP	56,620	1.50	4	–2
Serbia for All of Us (PLS–PZP–NUPS–SDU)	35,710	0.94	0	New
Bosniak Democratic Union	32,526	0.86	2	+2
Party of Democratic Action of Sandžak	30,092	0.80	2	–1
For A Free Serbia – Oathkeepers	27,690	0.73	0	New
Green Party	23,890	0.63	1	New
Out of spite – United for Serbia – National Alliance	17,528	0.46	0	New
Party for Democratic Action	16,262	0.43	1	–1
Russian Party	13,777	0.36	0	0
Citizen's Group – For Serb Revival	13,260	0.35	0	New
Serbo-Russian Movement	10,016	0.27	0	New
Dialogue – Youth with a Stance	7,744	0.20	0	New
Republican Party	4,522	0.12	0	New
Invalid/blank votes	111,008	2.86	–	–
Total	3,778,923	100	250	0
Registered voters/turnout	6,739,441	56.07	–	–
Source: B92

Aftermath

After the polls closed, it soon became clear that the Serbian Progressive Party would maintain its absolute majority in the Assembly, albeit with a smaller number of MPs, and that their partners, the Socialist Party of Serbia, would maintain their standing. However, the Republic Election Commission (RIK) and organizations monitoring the election (such as CeSID) were cautious about the results of most other lists, as they hovered around the 5% threshold. For a while, it looked as if all seven main contestants would pass the threshold, but as RIK published the final results on Thursday 28 April, the DSS-Dveri coalition ended up a single vote short. Tensions ran high, as the participants started to accuse each other and the RIK of fraud.^[32][33] Still, there were additional 18,000 votes to share, as voting had to be repeated at 15 polling stations due to irregularities.^[34] In the re-run held on 4 May, DSS–Dveri comfortably won the required number of votes and ended up with 5.29% of the vote.^[32] The Electoral Commission pronounced the final results of the election on Thursday 5 May.

Vučić announced formation of the new government by early June.^[35] He stated that the Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians were the only certain partners in the cabinet, and remained ambiguous about the future cooperation with the Socialist Party of Serbia, the coalition partners in the previous government, hinting that he will "certainly not form a government with someone who can't wait to stab him in the back."^[3]

Notes

1. ^ Based on 890 respondents aged 18 years (first-time voters).
2. ^ If the parties were to run in coalition: (mid–Dec 2015)
• SNS–PUPS–SDPS–PS 51
• SPS–JS 12
• SDS–LDP 8
• Dveri–DSS 6
• LSV–LS–DJB 6
• DS–NOVA 5
• SRS 4
3. ^ Dveri–DSS coalition 7.8.^[36] (1–7 Oct 2015)
4. ^ If the parties were to run in coalition: (24 Sep–4 Oct 2015)
• SNS–PUPS–SDPS–NS–SPO–SNP–PS 51
• SPS–JS 14
• Dveri–DSS 8
• DS–NOVA–DJB 7
• SDS–LDP 7
• SRS 7
5. ^ Ipsos Strategic Marketing poll for International Republican Institute (IRI).^[37]
6. ^ Between 13–15 if in coalition with JS and PUPS.^[38] (26–30 Aug 2015)
7. ^ If in coalition:^[39] (24–30 Jul 2015)
• SPS–JS–PUPS about 13.
• Dveri–DSS slightly more than 5.
8. ^ Based on 800 respondents aged 18–25 years.
9. ^ Percentages would be higher if undecided voters were excluded.
• SPS–JS–PUPS coalition 8.5. (24–30 Jan 2015)

References

1. "Nikolić raspisao izbore: Želim da pobedi SNS". B92. 4 March 2016.
2. "Vučić najavio formiranje vlade u junu". 25 April 2016.
3. "Vucic says he won't form government with "backstabbers"". B92. 29 April 2016.
4. Electoral system IPU
5. DSS i Dveri formirali patriotski blok RTS, 18 November 2014
6. Uz DSS i Dveri sada i PULS i SLS Blic, 30 January 2015
7. Pensioner party leaves coalition with Socialists B92, 19 February 2016
8. SNS IDE NA IZBORE SA SDPS Blic, 25 January 2016
9. Dogovor opozicije - na izbore na jednoj listi B92, 27 Feb 2016
10. Opposition parties won't form single list for elections B92, 29 Feb 2016
11. "Изборне листе" (in Serbian). RIK. 5 March 2016. Retrieved 5 March 2016.
12. Proglašena prva lista Mondo/Tanjug, 06.03.2016
13. Proglašena lista "Za pravednu Srbiju" - Demokratska stranka Blic, 06.03.2016
14. Koalicija oko SPS predala RIK-u izbornu listu B92, 08.03.2016
15. Četvrti na glasačkom listiću Kurir, 10.03.2016
16. RIK proglasila izbornu listu DSS-a i Dveri N1, 11.03.2016
17. RIK proglasio izbornu listu SVM - I. Pastor RTV, 12.03.2016
18. Proglašena lista koalicije LDP-LSV-SDS Blic, 14.03.2016
19. Proglašene još tri liste, prošao i Ugljanin Mondo, 18.03.2016
20. Proglašene još tri liste, prošao i Ugljanin Mondo, 18.03.2016
21. Proglašena izborna lista Za Slobodnu Srbiju - Zavetnici Večernje Novosti, 28.03.2016
22. RIK proglasio Izbornu listu Ruska stranka B92, 05.04.2016
23. RIK proglasio izbornu listu Republikanska stranka B92, 06.04.2016
24. Proglašena lista Srpsko ruski pokret B92, 07.04.2016
25. Borislav Stefanović i Janko Veselinović na zajedničkoj listi RTS, 16.03.2016
26. Proglašena i lista "Dijalog" Mondo, 09.04.2016
27. RIK: Proglašeno 18 izbornih lista B92, 09.04.2016
28. PDD, jedina manjinska partija Albanaca na izborima B92, 12.04.2016
29. RIK proglasio 21. listu, odbačena "Tolerancija" B92, 12.04.2016
30. RIK proglasio 21. listu, odbačena "Tolerancija" B92, 12.04.2016
31. "DESNICA JAČA IZ DANA U DAN Radikali, Dveri i DSS prešišali DS". Informer. 26 May 2015.
32. Saša Dragojlo (5 May 2016). "Serbian Right-Wingers Win Seats in Poll Re-Run". Balkan Insight.
33. "IGRA ŽIVACA: DSS-Dveri ispod cenzusa za JEDAN GLAS" [Game of nerves: DSS-Dveri below the threshold for one vote]. Blic. 29 April 2016.
34. "18.000 BIRAČA PONOVO NA GLASANJE Poništeni izbori na ukupno 15 biračkih mesta, neizvesna sudbina dve liste". Blic. 27 April 2016.
35. "Vučić najavio formiranje vlade u junu". 25 April 2016.
36. "Za SNS 48,1 za DVERI - 7,8 odsto". Svedok. 3 November 2015.
37. "I LDP prelazi cenzus?". Danas. 6 September 2015.
38. "Faktor plus: Građani podržavaju Vučića i pomoć izbeglicama". N1. 31 August 2015.
39. "Faktor plus: SNS iznad 50 odsto". Novosti. 1 August 2015.