Illinois Democratic primary, 2016

Illinois Democratic primary, 2016

March 15, 2016

Candidate Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Home state New York Vermont Delegate count 79 77 Popular vote 1,039,555 999,494 Percentage 50.55% 48.61%

Election results by county.   Hillary Clinton   Bernie Sanders

The 2016 Illinois Democratic primary took place on March 15 in the U.S. state of Illinois as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

On the same day, the Democratic Party held primaries in Florida, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio, while the Republican Party held primaries in the same five states, including their own Illinois primary, plus the Northern Mariana Islands.

Background

Article Two of the United States Constitution provides that for a person to be elected and serve as President of the United States, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old, and a resident of the United States for a period of no less than 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various Political parties of the United States, in which case each party devises a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The general election in November is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors in turn directly elect the President and Vice President.

The incumbent, President Barack Obama, a Democrat and former U.S. Senator from Illinois, is ineligible to seek reelection to a third term due to restrictions of the Twenty-second Amendment; in accordance with Section 1 of the Twentieth Amendment, his term expires at noon on January 20, 2017. In the 2008 election, Obama was elected president, defeating the Republican nominee, Senator John McCain of Arizona, receiving 52.9% of the popular vote and 68% of the electoral vote.^[1][2] Obama succeeded two-term Republican President George W. Bush, the former Governor of Texas. Since the end of 2009, polling companies such as Gallup have found Obama's approval ratings to be between 40 and 50 percent.^[3][4] Analysts such as Larry Sabato have noted that Obama's approval ratings could impact the 2016 campaign, helping or hurting the Democratic candidate.^[5][6] If Obama and Vice President Joe Biden serve out the remainder of their respective terms, the voters will elect the 45th President and 48th Vice President of the United States, respectively.

In the 2010 midterm elections, the Democratic Party suffered significant losses in Congress; the Republicans gained 63 seats in the House of Representatives (thus taking control of the chamber), and six seats in the Senate, though short of achieving a majority. As a result of the Republicans' recapture of the House, John Boehner became the 53rd Speaker of the House of Representatives. This made Obama the first President in 16 years to lose the House of Representatives in the first half of his first term, in an election that was characterized by the economy's slow recovery, and the rise of the Tea Party movement.^[7] In the 2012 presidential election, incumbent President Barack Obama defeated former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, with 51.1% of the popular vote and 332 (or 61.7%) of 538 electoral votes.^[8] Meanwhile, Republicans retained their majority of seats in the House of Representatives despite minor losses, while Democrats increased their majority in the Senate.^[2] Speculation about the 2016 campaign began almost immediately following the 2012 campaign, with New York magazine declaring the race had begun in an article published on November 8, 2012, two days after the 2012 election.^[9] On the same day, Politico released an article predicting the 2016 general election may be between Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush, while a New York Times article named Chris Christie and Cory Booker as potential candidates.^[10][11] In the 2014 midterm elections, voter turnout was the lowest seen in 70 years, with only 34.4% of eligible voters voting.^[12] As a result of the election, the Republicans retained control of the House of Representatives, increasing their majority to its largest level since 1928. Republicans also gained a majority in the Senate.

Opinion polling

Poll source	Date	1st	2nd	Other
Primary results	March 15, 2016	Hillary Clinton 50.6%	Bernie Sanders 48.6%	Others 0.8%
McKeon & Associates[13] Margin of error: ± 4.1% Sample size: 428	March 12, 2016	Hillary Clinton 31%	Bernie Sanders 30%	Others / Undecided 39%
Public Policy Polling[14] Margin of error: ± 3.9% Sample size: 627	March 11–12, 2016	Hillary Clinton 48%	Bernie Sanders 45%	Others / Undecided 7%
CBS News/YouGov[15] Margin of error: ± 5.5% Sample size: 756	March 9–11, 2016	Bernie Sanders 48%	Hillary Clinton 46%	Others / Undecided 6%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist[16] Margin of error: ± 4.3% Sample size: 529	March 4–10, 2016	Hillary Clinton 51%	Bernie Sanders 45%	Others / Undecided 4%
We Ask America[17] Margin of error: ± 3.11% Sample size: 994	March 7–8, 2016	Hillary Clinton 62%	Bernie Sanders 25%	Others / Undecided 13%
Chicago Tribune[18] Margin of error: ±4.1% Sample size: 600	March 2–6, 2016	Hillary Clinton 67%	Bernie Sanders 25%	Others / Undecided 8%
We Ask America[19] Margin of error: ± 3.0 Sample size: 1,116	February 24, 2016	Hillary Clinton 57%	Bernie Sanders 28%	Others / Undecided 15%
The Simon Poll/SIU[20] Margin of error: ± 5.6 Sample size: 306	February 15–20, 2016	Hillary Clinton 51%	Bernie Sanders 32%	Others / Undecided 17%
The Illinois Observer[21] Margin of error: ± 4.23 Sample size: 560	February 11, 2016	Hillary Clinton 58%	Bernie Sanders 25%	Others / Undecided 18%
McKeon & Associates[22] Margin of error: ± 3.9 Sample size: 846	February 3–4, 2016	Hillary Clinton 36%	Bernie Sanders 25%	Others / Undecided 39%
Public Policy Polling[23] Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 409	July 20–21, 2015	Hillary Clinton 60%	Bernie Sanders 23%	Others / Undecided 17%

Results

Polls before the Illinois Democratic Primary indicated a toss up. Through the night the election remained close. Around 12:30 P.M. EST the Associated Press called Illinois for Clinton. While Sanders did well throughout the state, it was not enough to overcome the lead Clinton had in Cook County, home of Chicago.

Illinois Democratic primary, March 15, 2016
Candidate	Popular vote		Estimated delegates
	Count	Percentage	Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Hillary Clinton	1,039,555	50.55%	79 (50.64%)	21 (80.77%)	100 (54.40%)
Bernie Sanders	999,494	48.61%	77 (49.36%)		77 (42.86%)
Willie Wilson	6,565	0.32%
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn)	6,197	0.30%		1 (3.85%)	1 (0.55%)
Lawrence "Larry Joe" Cohen	2,407	0.12%
Rocky De La Fuente	1,802	0.09%
Others	27	0.00%
Total	2,056,047	100%	156	26	182
Source: The Green Papers and Illinois Board of Elections

Illinois Democratic primary, March 15, 2016
	District	Delegates	Votes Clinton	Votes Sanders	Votes Qualified	Clinton delegates	Sanders delegates
	1	9
	2	8
	3	5
	4	5
	5	6
	6	5
	7	9
	8	4
	9	7
	10	5
	11	5
	12	6
	13	5
	14	4
	15	4
	16	5
	17	6
	18	4
	Total	102
	PLEO	20
	At Large	34
	Gr. Total	156
	Total vote		%	%
Source: Illinois State board of Elections

References

1. "United States House of Representatives floor summary for Jan 8, 2009". Clerk.house.gov. Retrieved March 25, 2016.
2. "Federal elections 2008" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. Retrieved March 25, 2016.
3. "Presidential Approval Ratings -- Barack Obama". Gallup. Gallup. Retrieved March 25, 2016.
4. "Election Other – President Obama Job Approval". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved March 23, 2016.
5. Sabato, Larry J. (May 11, 2015). "Clinton’s Real Opponent: Barack Obama". Politico. Retrieved March 25, 2016.
6. Cohn, Nate (January 16, 2015). "What a Rise in Obama’s Approval Rating Means for 2016". The New York Times (The New York Times Company). Retrieved March 25, 2016.
7. "Mid-term Elections 2010: Democrats lose the House in Republican tsunami". Daily Mail. Daily Mail and General Trust. Retrieved March 25, 2016.
8. "President Map". The New York Times (The New York Times Company). November 29, 2012. Retrieved March 25, 2016.
9. Amira, Dan (November 8, 2012). "Let the 2016 Campaign Season Begin!". New York. Retrieved March 25, 2016.
10. Martin, Johnathon; Haberman, Maggie (November 8, 2012). "2016 election: Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush?". Politico. Retrieved March 25, 2016.
11. Barbaro, Micharl (November 8, 2012). "After Obama, Christie Wants a G.O.P. Hug". The New York Times (The New York Times Company). Retrieved March 23, 2016.
12. "2014 midterm election turnout lowest in 70 years | PBS NewsHour". PBS NewsHour. Retrieved March 25, 2016.
13. "ANALYSIS: 2016 Illinois Democratic Primary" (PDF).
14. "Midwestern States a Toss Up Tuesday" (PDF).
15. "Poll: Trump and Kasich neck-and-neck in Ohio; Trump leads in Florida".
16. "Polls: Trump Ahead in Florida, Illinois; Kasich Leads in Ohio".
17. "Illinois Democratic Presidential Primary March 8".
18. "Clinton holds commanding lead over Sanders in Illinois". Retrieved 2016-03-08.
19. "Illinois Democratic Presidential Primary".
20. "Simon Poll: Clinton, Trump Lead in Illinois" (PDF).
21. "Poll: Clinton Lead in Illinois Over Sanders Slips".
22. "Poll: Bernie Sanders Gaining On Hillary Clinton In Illinois".
23. "Kirk Unpopular, Trails Duckworth" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. Retrieved 2015-07-29.