Missouri gubernatorial election, 2012

November 6, 2012 (2012-11-06)



Nominee	Jay Nixon	Dave Spence
Party	Democratic	Republican
Popular vote	1,485,147	1,157,475
Percentage	54.7%	42.6%

County results

Governor before election

Jay Nixon
Democratic

Elected Governor

Jay Nixon
Democratic

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The 2012 Missouri gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2012, to elect the Governor of Missouri. Democratic incumbent Jay Nixon won re-election against businessman Dave Spence.

Democratic primary

Candidates

William Campbell^[1]
Jay Nixon, incumbent governor^[2]
Clay Thunderhawk^[1]

Results

100% reporting (3,420 of 3,420 precincts) ^[3]

Democratic primary results
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Jay Nixon (Incumbent)	269,865	86.0
	Democratic	William Campbell	25,721	8.2
	Democratic	Clay Thunderhawk	18,228	5.8
Total votes			313,814	100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Bill Randles, businessman and corporate defense lawyer^[4]
Fred Sauer, investment executive and pro-life activist^[1]
Dave Spence, businessman^[1]
John Weiler^[1]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bill Randles	Fred Sauer	Dave Spence	John Weiler	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	August 4–5, 2012	590	± 4.0%	15%	12%	42%	3%	29%
Mason-Dixon	July 23–25, 2012	400	± 5.0%	15%	1%	41%	3%	40%
Public Policy Polling	May 24–27, 2012	430	± 4.7%	11%	4%	32%	1%	43%
Public Policy Polling	January 27–29, 2012	574	± 4.1%	15%	—	11%	—	74%

Results

100% reporting (3,420 of 3,420 precincts) ^[3]

Republican primary results
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Dave Spence	333,578	59.9
	Republican	Bill Randles	90,651	16.3
	Republican	Fred Sauer	83,695	15.0
	Republican	John Weiler	49,006	8.8
Total votes			556,930	100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Jim Higgins, former officer of the Libertarian Party of Missouri^[1]

Declined

Leonard Steinman^[1]

Results

100% reporting (3,420 of 3,420 precincts) ^[3]

Libertarian primary results
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Libertarian	Jim Higgins	2,500	100.0
Total votes			2,500	100.0

General election

Debates

Complete video of debate, C-SPAN, September 21, 2012

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Nixon (D)	Dave Spence (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	November 2–3, 2012	835	± 3.4%	53%	45%	—	2%
SurveyUSA	October 28–November 3, 2012	589	± 4.1%	48%	39%	5%	8%
Mason-Dixon	October 23–25, 2012	625	± 4%	48%	42%	—	9%
Public Policy Polling	October 19–21, 2012	582	± 4.1%	51%	40%	—	8%
Public Policy Polling	October 1–3, 2012	700	± 3.7%	54%	35%	—	12%
Public Policy Polling	August 20, 2012	500	± 4.4%	46%	37%	—	16%
Survey USA	August 9–12, 2012	585	± 4.1%	51%	37%	5%	6%
Chilenski Strategies	August 8, 2012	663	± 3.8%	53%	39%	—	9%
Mason-Dixon	July 23–25, 2012	625	± 4.0%	48%	39%	—	13%
Public Policy Polling	May 24–27, 2012	602	± 4.0%	45%	34%	—	21%
Public Policy Polling	January 27–29, 2012	582	± 4.1%	47%	27%	—	26%

Hypothetical polling

Republican Primary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Peter Kinder	Bill Randles	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	September 9–12, 2011	400	± 4.9%	34%	14%	53%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Peter Kinder	Someone else	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	September 9–12, 2011	400	± 4.9%	22%	35%	43%

General Election

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Nixon (D)	Bill Randles (R)	Other	Undecided
Mason-Dixon	July 23–25, 2012	625	± 4.0%	50%	35%	—	15%
Public Policy Polling	May 24–27, 2012	602	± 4.0%	46%	32%	—	22%
Public Policy Polling	January 27–29, 2012	582	± 4.1%	47%	29%	—	24%
Public Policy Polling	September 9–12, 2011	632	± 3.9%	45%	24%	—	30%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Nixon (D)	Matt Blunt (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	September 9–12, 2011	632	± 3.9%	50%	37%	—	13%
Public Policy Polling	April 28-May 1, 2011	555	± 3.9%	48%	38%	—	13%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Nixon (D)	John Danforth (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	September 9–12, 2011	632	± 3.9%	39%	45%	—	17%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Nixon (D)	Kenny Hulshof (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	April 28-May 1, 2011	555	± 3.9%	51%	34%	—	15%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Nixon (D)	Peter Kinder (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	September 9–12, 2011	632	± 3.9%	50%	31%	—	18%
Public Policy Polling	April 28-May 1, 2011	555	± 3.9%	48%	34%	—	18%
Public Policy Polling	March 3–6, 2011	612	± 4.0%	45%	38%	—	17%
Public Policy Polling	Nov. 29-December 1, 2010	515	± 4.3%	47%	39%	—	14%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Nixon (D)	Sarah Steelman (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	Nov. 29-December 1, 2010	515	± 4.3%	46%	35%	—	19%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Nixon (D)	Jim Talent (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	September 9–12, 2011	632	± 3.9%	47%	38%	—	14%

Results

Nixon won with a comfortable margin, even though it was a little closer than his 2008 victory. Even with President Obama losing the state by a nine point margin, Nixon and Senator Claire McCaskill both won reelection easily. Nixon, like McCaskill was able to get a huge number of votes from rural areas. Both Nixon and McCaskill were declared the winners of their respective races, even before the known Democratic strongholds of St. Louis, and Kansas City came in.

Missouri gubernatorial election, 2012 ^[5]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Jay Nixon (Incumbent)	1,485,147	54.68%	-3.71%
	Republican	Dave Spence	1,157,475	42.62%	+3.12%
	Libertarian	Jim Higgins	73,196	2.70%	+1.59%
	Write-ins		51	<0.01%	n/a
Margin of victory			327,672	12.07%	-6.84%
Turnout			2,715,869	64.80%
	Democratic hold		Swing

Note: The ±% column reflects the change in total number of votes won by each party from the previous election. Turnout percentage is the portion of registered voters (4,190,936 as of 10/24/2012)^[6] who voted.

References

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Redden, Susan (April 2, 2012). "Susan Redden: Candidates for governor, lieutenant governor total 23". The Joplin Globe. Retrieved May 25, 2012.
↑ "Gov. Nixon confirms he will seek re-election". Associated Press. December 16, 2010. Retrieved December 16, 2010.
1 2 3 "Election Night Reporting". MO Secretary of State. August 8, 2012. Retrieved August 9, 2012.
↑ Governor candidate Randles: Voters reject ‘next guy in line’ philosophy
↑ http://enr.sos.mo.gov/ENR/Views/TabularData.aspx?TabView=StateRaces^Federal%20/%20Statewide%20Races^011656688155
↑ http://www.sos.mo.gov/elections/registeredvoters.asp?rvmID=0012

External links

Elections from the Missouri Secretary of State

Campaign sites

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Missouri gubernatorial election, 2012

Democratic primary

Candidates

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Polling

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declined

Results

General election

Debates

Polling

Results

See also

References

External links