Russian legislative election, 2011

Russian legislative election, 2011
Russia
4 December 2011
All 450 seats to the State Duma
226 seats needed for a majority
Turnout 60.1%
  First party Second party
 
Candidate Dmitry Medvedev Gennady Zyuganov
Leader Vladimir Putin Gennady Zyuganov
Party United Russia Communist Party
Leader since 1 January 2008 14 February 1993
Last election 315 seats, 64.30% 57 seats, 11.57%
Seats won 238 92
Seat change Decrease77 Increase35
Popular vote 32,379,135 12,599,507
Percentage 49.32% 19.19%
Swing Decrease14.98pp Increase7.62pp
  Third party Fourth party
 
Candidate Sergey Mironov Vladimir Zhirinovsky
Leader Nikolai Levichev Vladimir Zhirinovsky
Party A Just Russia LDPR
Leader since 24 September 2011 12 April 1991
Last election 38 seats, 7.74% 40 seats, 8.14%
Seats won 64 56
Seat change Increase26 Increase16
Popular vote 8,695,522 7,664,570
Percentage 13.24% 11.67%
Swing Increase5.50pp Increase3.53pp
Chairman before election

Boris Gryzlov
United Russia

 Chairman-designate

Sergey Naryshkin
United Russia

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Legislative elections were held in Russia on 4 December 2011.[1] At stake were the 450 seats in the 6th State Duma, the lower house of the Federal Assembly of Russia (the legislature). United Russia won the elections with 49.32% of the vote, taking 238 seats or 52.88% of the Duma seats.

This result was down from 64.30% of the vote and 70% of the seats in the 2007 elections. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation received 19.19% of the vote and 92 seats, while A Just Russia received 13.24% and 64 seats, with the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia getting 56 seats with 11.67% of the vote. Yabloko, Patriots of Russia and Right Cause did not cross the 7% election threshold. The list of parties represented in the parliament did not change.

United Russia lost the two-thirds constitutional majority it had held prior to the election, but it still won a majority of seats in the Duma, even though it had slightly less than 50% of the popular vote. The Communist Party, Liberal Democratic Party and A Just Russia all gained new seats compared to the previous 2007 elections.

The election received various assessments from abroad: positive from the Commonwealth of Independent States observers, mixed from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe and critical from some European Union representatives and the United States. Reports of election fraud and voter discontent with the current government have led to major protests particularly in Moscow and Saint Petersburg. The government and United Russia were in their turn supported by rallies of the youth organizations Nashi and Young Guard. Later, the actions of anti-government protesters sparked the fear of a colour revolution in Russian society, and a number of the "anti-Orange" protests were set up[2] (the name alludes to the Orange Revolution in Ukraine, the most widely known color revolution to Russians) including one on the Poklonnaya Hill in Moscow, the largest protest action of all the protests so far according to the police.[3][4][5]

The Central Electoral Commission issued a report on 3 February 2012, in which it said that it received a total of 1686 reports on irregularities, of which only 195 (11.5%) were confirmed true after investigation, a third (584) actually contained questions about the unclear points of electoral law, and only 60 complaints claimed falsifications of the elections results.[6] On 4 February 2012 the Investigation Committee of the Office of the Prosecutor General of the Russian Federation announced that the majority of videos allegedly showing falsifications at polling stations were in fact falsified themselves.[7]

Statistical analysis of poll data have shown massive abnormalities that most researchers explain by mass-scale electoral fraud.

Electoral system

The threshold for eligibility to win seats is 7.0 percent. In addition, a party which receives between 5.0 and 6.0 percent will get 1 seat in the Duma and those which receive between 6.0 and 7.0 percent will get 2 seats.[8]

Ballot to the 2011 State Duma election with list of Political parties.

Political parties

All seven registered political parties were approved to participate in the elections. Parties which were present in the State Duma (United Russia, Communist Party, Liberal Democratic Party and A Just Russia) were automatically eligible to participate in the elections. Other parties needed to present at least 150,000 signatures (with a maximum of 5000 signatures per region) to the Central Electoral Commission before 19 October.[9][10]

Ballot
number 		Party Party leader № 1 in party list Conventions date[11] Ideology
1 A Just Russia Nikolai Levichev Sergey Mironov 24 September 2011 Social democracy
2 Liberal Democratic Party of Russia Vladimir Zhirinovsky Vladimir Zhirinovsky 13 September 2011 Right-wing nationalism
3 Patriots of Russia Gennady Semigin Gennady Semigin 10 September 2011 Left-wing nationalism
4 Communist Party of the Russian Federation Gennady Zyuganov Gennady Zyuganov 24 September 2011 Communism / Left-wing nationalism
5 Yabloko Sergey Mitrokhin Grigory Yavlinsky 10–11 September 2011 Social liberalism
6 United Russia Vladimir Putin Dmitry Medvedev 23–24 September 2011 Statism / Centrism
7 Right Cause Andrey Dunaev Andrey Dunaev 20 September 2011 Neoliberalism

Campaign

There was relatively little sign of campaign activity on the ground: few posters, few street agitators, and few people gathering at non-United Russia campaign rallies. Candidates debates were often brief and aired at odd times of day (such as 7 a.m. on First Channel) and typically featured strange pairings of parties and not always the top figures on their party lists.

Opinion polls

Opinion polls United Russia Communist Party Liberal Democratic
Party		 A Just Russia Yabloko Patriots of
Russia		 Right Cause
VCIOM[12]
November 2010		 62.9% 11.9% 6.9% 8.9% 3.9% 2.8% 2.6%
Levada[13]
January 2011 		57% 20% 9% 6% <1% <1% <1%
Levada[14]
February 2011 		60% 16% 11% 4% 1% <1% <1%
Levada[15]
March 2011 		57% 18% 10% 7% 1% <1% <1%
Levada[16]
April 2011 		55% 18% 12% 6% 2% <1% <1%
VCIOM[17]
April 2011		 58.7% 13.6% 9.1% 9.8% 2.7% 1.8% 2.9%
Levada[18]
May 2011 		57% 17% 14% 4% 1% <1% <1%
Levada[19]
June 2011 		53% 17% 13% 5% 1% 1% 2%
VCIOM[20]
June 2011		 58.3% 14.7% 9.8% 7.3% 2.8% 1.9% 4.1%
Levada[21]
July 2011 		54% 18% 12% 7% 2% <1% 2%
Levada[22]
August 2011		 54% 18% 13% 6% 1% 1% 3%
VCIOM[23]
August 2011		 55.0% 16.4% 10.8% 7.1% 2.5% 2.1% 4.9%
Levada[24]
September 2011 		57% 16% 12% 6% 3% 1% 2%
Levada[24]
30 September–
2 October 2011 		59% 18% 9% 7% 1% 1% 2%
VCIOM[25]
October 2011		 53.8% 17.1% 11.3% 7.9% 3.3% 2.0% 2.1%
Levada[26]
21–24 October 2011 		60% 17% 11% 5% 2% <1% 1%
Levada[26]
28 October–
1 November 2011 		51% 20% 14% 7% 4% <1% 1%
VCIOM[27]
7 November 2011		 53.3% 17.4% 12% 8.3% 3.3% 1.8% 2.2%
Levada[28]
11 November 2011 		53% 20% 12% 9% 1% <1% 1%
VCIOM[29]
19–20 November 2011		 53.7% 16.7% 11.6% 10% 2.9% 1.6% 1.7%

Conduct

Alleged foreign involvement

Election ballots in Pereslavl

In the pre-election campaign period the GOLOS Association watchdog was the largest organization independent from participating parties that reported on campaign violations. The online service it set up to collect reports recorded 5,300 complaints regarding violations of electoral law.[30][31][32] Most of the violations were linked to United Russia and about a third of the complaints were from state employees and students who said they were pressured by their employers/professors to vote for United Russia.[33][34][35]

On 1 December 2011 prosecutors in Moscow served GOLOS with papers alleging that the organisation had portrayed an unnamed political party in a bad light. The unnamed party has been identified as being United Russia. On 2 November a Moscow court fined GOLOS 30 000 roubles (about 1000 USD) for violations of the electoral law of Russia.[36]

On 8 December the Life News portal claimed it had received access to 60 Mb of correspondence between GOLOS administration and USAID (a federal government agency of the United States), and correspondence between GOLOS administration and its activists. The correspondence showed reports to USAID on how USAID funds received by GOLOS were spent. Also, the correspondence showed that activists received money for working on every report about a violation.[37] Earlier, on 2 December, NTV showed an investigative documentary film, "Голос ниоткуда" (Golos niotkuda, translated as "Voice from nowhere" or "Vote from nowhere"), accusing GOLOS of making propaganda paid for by foreign money, in particular from the United States.[36]

Irregularities

One of many United Russia posters in St. Petersburg on election day, 4 December 2011

During and after the election international media and local independent websites reported serious irregularities during the election, including ballot stuffing, misuse of state resources, media bias and lack of impartiality by the election commission.[38][39][40] The Russian state-owned news agency RIA Novosti reported more than 1,100 official complaints filed of election irregularities across the country, including vote fraud, obstruction of observers and illegal campaigning.[41]

Reports by participating parties

Members of the A Just Russia, Yabloko and Communist parties reported that certain voters were shuttled between polling stations, casting several ballots. The Yabloko and Liberal Democratic parties reported that some of their observers had been banned from witnessing the sealing of the ballot boxes and from gathering video footage, and others groundlessly expelled from polling stations.[41][42] The ruling United Russia party alleged that opposition parties broke campaign law by distributing leaflets and newspapers at polling stations, and that at some polling stations the voters were ordered to vote for the Communist party with threats of violence.[41]

Reports by independent groups and observers

At a number of polling stations throughout the country, observers reported that final results published by the Central Election Commission differed drastically from results recorded by observers, with the "official" numbers sometimes showing the United Russia vote inflated by a factor of two or three.[43][44][45] Carousel voting was also observed in many areas.

In Moscow, the opposition activist group Citizen Observer estimated that United Russia had stolen 17% of the popular vote from other parties.[46][47]

In Saint Petersburg, independent activist group Right to Elect ("Право выбора") attempted to register all differences between observers' protocols and the data of the Central Election Commission. They found that comparable shares of differences in votes were in favour not only of the United Russia, but of CPRF and LDPR parties as well (2.68%, 1.49% and 2.67% respectively as of the data on 13 December).[48][49]

Reports by international observers

International observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) documented numerous violations of electoral law.[50][51] They found that whilst the preparations for the elections were technically well administered, they were marked by a "convergence of the State and the governing party".[52] They said they witnessed "undue interference of state authorities", "partiality of most media" and "lack of independence of the election administration".[52] Denying registration to some political parties narrowed political competition, according to the OSCE.[52] The OCSE concluded that "This...did not provide the necessary conditions for fair electoral competition."[52] However, international observers from the Commonwealth of Independent States reported that the elections "were held legally and without serious violations."[53] Yet given government's control over the Central Electoral Commission and the exclusion of many independent observers from participation in monitoring voting and vote tabulation, it is exceedingly difficult to assess the degree of falsification in the election.[54]

Official reaction to the reports on irregularities

According to Vladimir Putin's Press Secretary, Dmitry Peskov, the known accumulated volume of all reports on falsifications affects no more than 0.5% of total votes, and so this could not be a basis to reconsider the results of the elections.[55]

Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev called for an investigation of all reports on irregularities, but voiced his disagreement with slogans and calls by the protesters on the post-election meetings.[55]

Yury Chaika, the Prosecutor General of Russia, said that the data on falsifications will be analyzed, but said also that violations were local and didn't affect the overall result, and that therefore there is no reason to cancel the results of the elections.[55]

Other irregularities

Various Russian liberal news websites reported experiencing denial of service attacks on the day of the election.[56] United Russia was able to score 99.48% in the Chechen Republic and got to a lesser degree similar results in the neighbouring republics, a curiosity which was picked up by many international newspapers.[57][58]

The group's leader Lilya Shibanova was detained for twelve hours at Moscow's Sheremetyevo airport on 2 December, and released only after giving her laptop to security personnel there.[34]

Investigation of the reports on irregularities

Official reports to the Central Electoral Commission

The Central Electoral Commission issued a report on 3 February 2012, in which it said that it received the total of 1686 reports on irregularities, of which only 195 (11.5%) were confirmed true after investigation. About a third of reports (584) actually contained questions about the unclear points of electoral law rather than reports of irregularities, and there were only 60 complaints claiming falsifications of the elections results.[6]

Type of reports Number[6]
Claims of illegal campaigning 265
Claims of illegal actions on elections day 235
Questions about the unclear points of electoral law 584
Claims of usage of the 'administrative resource' 110
Claims of falsification of the results 60
Total reports 1686
Confirmed reports 195

Investigation of videos

On 4 February 2012 the Investigation Committee of the Office of the Prosecutor General of the Russian Federation announced that the majority of videos allegedly showing falsifications at polling stations were in fact falsified and originally distributed from a single server in California.[7] However, others (such as GOLOS) pointed out firstly, that 'falsification' was deemed to be 'editing' ('монтаж') - something unavoidable in fitting potentially hours of footage into a short internet clip, and secondly that "the server in California" might actually just be YouTube.[59]

Results

United Russia won the elections with a 49.32% share of votes (238 seats; 52.88% of Duma seats), down from 64.30% (70% of seats) in the 2007 elections. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation received 19.19% (92 seats), while the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia got 11.67% (56 seats) and A Just Russia 13.24% (64 seats). Other parties did not cross the 7% election threshold, and the list of parties in the parliament did not change.

United Russia lost two-thirds constitutional majority, but still won an absolute majority. The Communist Party, Liberal Democratic Party and A Just Russia all got a higher level of representation in the parliament compared to the previous 2007 elections.

 Summary of the 4 December 2011 State Duma election results
Parties and alliances Seat composition Popular vote % ± pp
swing
Seats ± %
United Russia 238 Decrease77 52.88% 32,379,135 49.32% Decrease14.98
Communist Party 92 Increase35 20.46% 12,599,507 19.19% Increase7.62
A Just Russia 64 Increase26 14.21% 8,695,522 13.24% Increase5.50
Liberal Democratic Party 56 Increase16 12.45% 7,664,570 11.67% Increase3.53
Yabloko 0 Steady0 0% 2,252,403 3.43% Increase1.84
Patriots of Russia 0 Steady0 0% 639,119 0.97% Increase0.08
Right Cause 0 Steady0 0% 392,806 0.60% new party
Total 450 0 100% 64,623,062 100%
Valid ballot papers 64,623,062 98.43%
Invalid ballot papers 1,033,464 1.57%
Eligible voters 109,237,780 Turnout: 60.10%
Source: Summary table of election results - Central Election Commission

Results per region

Turnout by region
Results for United Russia by region
Results for CPRF by region
Results for A Just Russia by region
Results for LDPR by region
Results for Yabloko by region
Results for Patriots of Russia by region
Results for Right Cause by region
Invalid ballots by region
Region Turnout United Russia CP Just Russia LDPR Yabloko Patriots Right Cause Invalid ballots
 Primorsky Krai 48,8 % 33,3 % 23,2 % 18,1 % 18,7 % 3,0 % 0,9 % 0,5 % 2,4 %
 Khabarovsk Krai 53,0 % 38,1 % 20,5 % 14,1 % 19,8 % 3,7 % 1,4 % 0,7 % 1,7 %
 Amur Oblast 53,7 % 43,5 % 19,2 % 10,3 % 21,0 % 1,9 % 1,7 % 0,7 % 1,7 %
 Sakha Republic 59,3 % 49,2 % 16,4 % 21,8 % 8,5 % 1,7 % 0,8 % 0,5 % 1,2 %
 Sakhalin Oblast 48,7 % 41,9 % 23,4 % 11,8 % 16,0 % 3,4 % 1,2 % 0,7 % 1,6 %
 Kamchatka Krai 53,1 % 45,3 % 17,1 % 10,1 % 18,6 % 4,1 % 2,2 % 0,6 % 2,1 %
 Magadan Oblast 50,6 % 41,0 % 22,8 % 11,6 % 17,4 % 3,5 % 1,9 % 0,8 % 1,3 %
 Jewish Autonomous Oblast 52,0 % 48,1 % 19,8 % 10,5 % 15,7 % 1,9 % 0,9 % 0,5 % 2,5 %
 Chukotka Autonomous Okrug 74,2 % 70,3 % 6,7 % 5,4 % 11,2 % 1,7 % 0,9 % 0,7 % 3,1 %
 Krasnoyarsk Krai 49,4 % 36,7 % 23,6 % 15,9 % 17,0 % 3,2 % 1,0 % 0,9 % 1,8 %
 Irkutsk Oblast 47,2 % 34,9 % 27,8 % 13,4 % 17,3 % 3,4 % 1,2 % 0,6 % 1,4 %
 Zabaykalsky Krai 53,6 % 43,3 % 18,6 % 14,1 % 19,2 % 1,7 % 1,1 % 0,5 % 1,5 %
 Buryatia 56,7 % 49,0 % 24,3 % 12,6 % 9,5 % 1,9 % 0,8 % 0,4 % 1,5 %
 Khakassia 56,2 % 40,1 % 23,6 % 13,7 % 16,0 % 2,7 % 1,6 % 0,6 % 1,6 %
 Tuva 83,7 % 85,3 % 3,9 % 6,7 % 2,1 % 0,5 % 0,3 % 0,2 % 1,0 %
 Novosibirsk Oblast 56,8 % 33,8 % 30,3 % 12,7 % 15,7 % 4,3 % 1,1 % 0,7 % 1,4 %
 Kemerovo Oblast 69,7 % 64,6 % 10,5 % 7,9 % 12,1 % 2,2 % 0,8 % 0,4 % 1,5 %
 Altai Krai 51,4 % 37,2 % 24,7 % 16,1 % 16,6 % 2,4 % 0,7 % 0,4 % 1,9 %
 Omsk Oblast 55,7 % 39,6 % 25,6 % 13,4 % 14,2 % 3,5 % 1,0 % 0,7 % 1,9 %
 Khanty–Mansi Autonomous Okrug 53,1 % 41,0 % 16,1 % 13,8 % 22,5 % 2,8 % 1,3 % 0,6 % 1,8 %
 Tyumen Oblast 53,1 % 65,1 % 11,2 % 6,8 % 12,9 % 1,7 % 0,8 % 0,5 % 1,0 %
 Tomsk Oblast 50,5 % 37,5 % 22,4 % 13,4 % 17,8 % 4,7 % 1,3 % 1,0 % 1,9 %
 Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug 75,6 % 71,7 % 6,6 % 4,7 % 13,6 % 1,2 % 0,7 % 0,4 % 1,1 %
 Altai Republic 62,8 % 53,3 % 21,5 % 10,3 % 10,6 % 1,5 % 0,8 % 0,5 % 1,3 %
 Sverdlovsk Oblast 51,0 % 32,7 % 16,8 % 24,7 % 16,0 % 4,3 % 0,9 % 2,1 % 2,5 %
 Bashkortostan 79,3 % 70,5 % 15,6 % 5,5 % 5,2 % 1,2 % 0,5 % 0,4 % 1,0 %
 Chelyabinsk Oblast 59,5 % 49,4 % 14,9 % 16,9 % 12,1 % 3,5 % 1,0 % 0,6 % 1,7 %
 Perm Krai 48,0 % 36,3 % 21,0 % 16,4 % 17,9 % 4,3 % 1,1 % 0,8 % 2,2 %
 Orenburg Oblast 51,2 % 34,9 % 26,2 % 16,8 % 16,9 % 2,4 % 1,0 % 0,4 % 1,4 %
 Udmurtia 56,6 % 45,1 % 19,5 % 11,2 % 16,6 % 2,8 % 2,5 % 0,7 % 1,5 %
 Kurgan Oblast 56,5 % 44,4 % 19,6 % 14,5 % 16,9 % 2,0 % 0,8 % 0,5 % 1,3 %
 Tatarstan 79,5 % 77,8 % 10,6 % 5,3 % 3,5 % 1,1 % 0,4 % 0,4 % 0,9 %
 Samara Oblast 52,9 % 39,1 % 23,3 % 14,5 % 15,8 % 3,8 % 1,2 % 0,5 % 2,0 %
 Saratov Oblast 67,2 % 64,9 % 13,8 % 10,1 % 7,2 % 1,7 % 0,6 % 0,3 % 1,4 %
 Volgograd Oblast 51,8 % 36,2 % 22,9 % 21,3 % 13,3 % 3,3 % 1,1 % 0,6 % 1,4 %
 Penza Oblast 64,9 % 56,3 % 19,8 % 8,7 % 10,1 % 2,1 % 0,7 % 0,4 % 1,9 %
 Ulyanovsk Oblast 60,4 % 43,6 % 23,1 % 15,6 % 12,6 % 2,3 % 1,0 % 0,5 % 1,4 %
 Astrakhan Oblast 55,6 % 58,1 % 14,3 % 15,2 % 8,5 % 1,0 % 0,7 % 0,3 % 1,7 %
 Kalmykia 63,2 % 66,1 % 18,4 % 7,2 % 4,0 % 1,4 % 0,6 % 0,7 % 1,6 %
 Nizhny Novgorod Oblast 59,2 % 45,0 % 28,5 % 10,5 % 10,6 % 2,8 % 0,8 % 0,5 % 1,3 %
 Kirov Oblast 54,1 % 34,9 % 22,7 % 19,8 % 16,7 % 2,7 % 1,2 % 0,6 % 1,5 %
 Chuvashia 61,6 % 43,4 % 20,9 % 18,8 % 10,7 % 1,6 % 1,3 % 0,4 % 2,9 %
 Mordovia 94,2 % 91,6 % 4,5 % 1,3 % 1,5 % 0,3 % 0,1 % 0,1 % 0,5 %
 Mari El 71,3 % 52,2 % 20,7 % 10,6 % 11,7 % 2,0 % 0,9 % 0,6 % 1,3 %
 Krasnodar Krai 72,8 % 56,3 % 17,5 % 10,8 % 10,4 % 2,0 % 0,9 % 0,5 % 1,6 %
 Rostov Oblast 59,4 % 50,2 % 20,8 % 13,3 % 10,2 % 2,9 % 0,8 % 0,5 % 1,3 %
 Dagestan 81,1 % 82,8 % 11,3 % 2,7 % 1,9 % 0,4 % 0,3 % 0,1 % 0,4 %
 Stavropol Krai 50,8 % 49,2 % 18,4 % 11,8 % 15,3 % 2,1 % 0,9 % 0,4 % 1,9 %
 Chechnya 98,6 % 99,48 % 0,09 % 0,18 % 0,02 % 0,05 % 0,07 % 0,04 % 0,07 %
 North Ossetia–Alania 85,6 % 67,9 % 21,7 % 6,0 % 2,2 % 0,3 % 0,4 % 0,3 % 1,2 %
 Kabardino-Balkaria 98,2 % 81,3 % 18,2 % 0,2 % 0,08 % 0,07 % 0,03 % 0,04 % 0,04 %
 Adygea 65,9 % 61,0 % 18,2 % 8,5 % 7,8 % 1,8 % 0,9 % 0,5 % 1,4 %
 Karachay-Cherkessia 93,2 % 89,8 % 8,8 % 0,5 % 0,3 % 0,1 % 0,1 % 0,1 % 0,2 %
 Ingushetia 86,2 % 91,0 % 2,9 % 2,3 % 0,4 % 0,8 % 0,3 % 1,5 % 0,8 %
 Moscow 61,7 % 46,6 % 19,3 % 12,1 % 9,4 % 8,5 % 1,3 % 0,8 % 1,7 %
 Moscow Oblast 50,7 % 32,5 % 25,9 % 16,0 % 14,4 % 6,1 % 1,3 % 1,0 % 2,8 %
 Vladimir Oblast 48,9 % 38,3 % 20,5 % 21,5 % 12,9 % 3,5 % 1,1 % 0,6 % 1,5 %
 Tula Oblast 72,8 % 61,3 % 15,1 % 8,5 % 9,2 % 3,5 % 0,8 % 0,4 % 1,2 %
 Tver Oblast 53,4 % 38,4 % 23,2 % 19,8 % 11,7 % 3,8 % 1,2 % 0,5 % 1,3 %
 Yaroslavl Oblast 55,9 % 29,0 % 24,0 % 22,6 % 15,5 % 4,8 % 1,8 % 0,7 % 1,6 %
 Bryansk Oblast 59,9 % 50,1 % 23,3 % 11,2 % 10,6 % 2,0 % 0,9 % 0,4 % 1,4 %
 Ryazan Oblast 52,7 % 39,8 % 23,6 % 15,1 % 15,1 % 3,1 % 1,2 % 0,7 % 1,6 %
 Ivanovo Oblast 52,9 % 40,1 % 22,5 % 15,6 % 14,8 % 3,5 % 1,2 % 0,8 % 1,5 %
 Smolensk Oblast 49,6 % 36,2 % 24,2 % 18,6 % 14,8 % 2,9 % 1,1 % 0,5 % 1,6 %
 Kaluga Oblast 57,5 % 40,5 % 21,9 % 15,6 % 14,4 % 4,1 % 1,4 % 0,6 % 1,6 %
 Oryol Oblast 64,7 % 38,9 % 32,0 % 11,2 % 12,2 % 2,1 % 0,9 % 0,8 % 1,8 %
 Kostroma Oblast 58,6 % 34,2 % 28,0 % 18,0 % 15,4 % 1,8 % 0,9 % 0,4 % 1,3 %
 Voronezh Oblast 64,3 % 49,5 % 21,8 % 14,4 % 8,8 % 2,2 % 0,8 % 0,4 % 1,9 %
 Belgorod Oblast 75,5 % 51,2 % 22,4 % 11,6 % 9,6 % 2,1 % 1,0 % 0,4 % 1,6 %
 Kursk Oblast 54,7 % 45,7 % 20,7 % 14,4 % 13,5 % 2,3 % 1,4 % 0,5 % 1,5 %
 Lipetsk Oblast 57,1 % 40,3 % 22,8 % 16,6 % 14,3 % 2,5 % 0,9 % 0,5 % 1,9 %
 Tambov Oblast 68,3 % 66,7 % 16,5 % 6,0 % 7,1 % 1,4 % 0,5 % 0,3 % 1,5 %
 Arkhangelsk Oblast 49,8 % 31,9 % 20,2 % 22,1 % 18,2 % 4,5 % 1,2 % 0,8 % 1,2 %
 Vologda Oblast 56,3 % 33,4 % 16,8 % 27,1 % 15,4 % 3,5 % 1,3 % 0,7 % 1,8 %
 Komi Republic 70,5 % 58,8 % 13,5 % 11,5 % 11,9 % 1,5 % 0,9 % 0,6 % 1,3 %
 Murmansk Oblast 51,8 % 32,0 % 21,8 % 19,7 % 18,1 % 4,7 % 1,2 % 0,6 % 1,9 %
 Karelia 50,2 % 32,3 % 19,3 % 20,6 % 17,9 % 6,2 % 0,9 % 0,9 % 1,9 %
 Nenets Autonomous Okrug 48,0 % 36,0 % 24,8 % 15,0 % 17,5 % 2,8 % 1,3 % 1,1 % 1,5 %
 Saint Petersburg 54,5 % 35,4 % 15,3 % 23,7 % 10,3 % 11,6 % 1,2 % 0,9 % 1,6 %
 Leningrad Oblast 51,8 % 33,7 % 17,3 % 25,1 % 14,7 % 4,9 % 1,2 % 0,6 % 2,5 %
 Kaliningrad Oblast 54,6 % 37,1 % 25,5 % 13,3 % 14,1 % 5,5 % 2,2 % 0,7 % 1,6 %
 Pskov Oblast 52,9 % 36,7 % 25,1 % 16,4 % 13,9 % 5,1 % 0,9 % 0,5 % 1,4 %
 Novgorod Oblast 56,7 % 35,3 % 19,0 % 28,2 % 11,6 % 2,7 % 0,9 % 0,5 % 1,8 %
 Baikonur 45,9 % 48,4 % 16,3 % 11,9 % 15,6 % 2,9 % 1,3 % 0,6 % 2,8 %
Total 92,5 % 63,9 % 11,7 % 7,1 % 7,3 % 7,0 % 0,8 % 0,6 % 1,6 %

Reactions

Aftermath

On 4 November 2011, a month before elections, during the annual "Russian March" event representatives of the nationalist The Russians movement declared a protest action to begin on the election day after polling closes.[68] As there was no official rally permit, the action was unapproved. It took place on 4 December at 21.00 in Moscow. Spokesman Alexander Belov declared the beginning of the «Putin, go away!» campaign.[69] Several hundred people participated in the protest, which resulted in running battles with riot police. The Russians leaders Alexander Belov, Dmitry Dyomushkin, George Borovikov and dozens of other nationalists were arrested. The head of the banned DPNI organization Vladimir Yermolaev was detained at a voting station where he was an observer. Also, mass detentions from other public organizations have occurred in Moscow. According to police some 258 persons have been detained.[70][71][72]

On 5 December, up to 8,000 opponents of the government began protesting in Moscow, denouncing Vladimir Putin and his government and what they believed were flawed elections. Protesters argued that the elections had been a sham and demanded that Putin step down, whilst some demanded revolution.[73][74]

On 6 December, 15,000 pro-United Russia activists marched near Red Square with 2,000 gathering in a different downtown location, while 5,000 people marched in protest at the same time.[75][76] Truckloads of soldiers and police, as well as a water cannon, were deployed ahead of expected anti-government protests. 300 protesters had been arrested in Moscow the night before, along with 120 in St. Petersburg.[77] During the night of 6 December, at least 600 protesters were reported to be in Triumphalnaya Square chanting slogans against Putin,[78] Meanwhile, anti-government protesters at Revolution Square near the Kremlin clashed with riot police and interior ministry troops,[79] with the police chasing around 100 away and arresting others.[80] Protest numbers later reached over 1,000 at Triumphalnaya Square and dozens were arrested, including Boris Nemtsov, an opposition leader and former deputy prime minister,[81] and Alexey Navalny, a top blogger and activist.[82]

The government and United Russia were supported by massive meetings of the youth organizations, such as a 15,000-strong rally of Nashi[75] and an 8,000 rally of the Young Guard on 6 December.[83] On 12 December, the 18th anniversary of the Constitution of Russia, a meeting of pro-Kremlin groups supported Putin and United Russia and celebrated the Constitution.[84]

Analysis

Comparison with exit polls and forecasts

It is not possible to compare exit polls to the numbers reported by the election commission because no nationwide exit polls were conducted outside of the government. The only nationwide exit polls were conducted by the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion (VTsIOM) - the government-run polling organization controlled by the Labor Ministry. Therefore, there were no independent nationwide exit polls that took place during the elections.

However, United Russia's final result, 49.32%, not only coincided with the Central Election Commission's exit poll figure of 48.5%, but actually fell somewhat below the results of pre-election surveys by the Levada Center, the foremost non-governmental, independent polling and sociological research organization in Russia. Levada Center polls in September–November, listed above, found levels of support for United Russia between 51%[85] and 60%.[85]

The Election Commission reported that United Russia was also the leader in Moscow, with 46.5% of the vote. However, one early exit poll indicated that the share of United Russia was only 27%.[86] The difference was attributed by some journalists to election fraud.[87][88] The organization that provided the 27% figure subsequently withdrew its estimate, citing its low accuracy.[89][90]

A large number of violations captured on observers' mobile phones suggest that the numbers provided by the election commission were fraudulent. In one report from Moscow, a Yabloko observer captured the pre-filled final tabulation in the regional election commission showing 515 (75.8%) votes for United Russia for his election station #6, while the records of the station #6 showed mere 128 (18.9%) votes for United Russia.[91] This casts more doubts on the legitimacy of the figures of the exit polls and overall votes reported by the government.

Statistics

Critics call attention to the discrepancy of normally distributed votes cast for other parties and the sawtooth-shaped distribution of votes cast for United Russia (shown in red)

Analysis by the physicist Sergey Shpilkin published by Gazeta.ru,[92] Lenta.Ru,[93] Troitsky Variant[94] and with others in Esquire Russia[95] reported on several characteristics of the election results which they view as evidence of fraud. Unlike elections in some other countries with a similar voting system, voter turnout does not display a normal distribution, and has distinct peaks appearing at multiples of 5%. Voter turnout exhibits a nearly linear relationship with the portion voting for United Russia, thus implying ballot stuffing in favor of UR. The distribution of percent voting for each party is not close to normal for United Russia either, unlike other parties. Similarly, percentages cast for United Russia have characteristic spikes at the round values of 50%, 60%, 70%, etc. Critics say, such a distribution might be a result of mass-scale fraud when local election commissions struggle to meet a certain objective, e.g. "60% for United Russia". Similar spikes also occurred in the 2007 Russian elections, and the political scientists Mikhail Myagkov, Peter Ordeshook and researcher Dmitri Shakin wrote that they are "consistent with the hypothesis that turnout numbers were manufactured artificially, with simple rounded numbers entered into official protocols."[96] A team from Imperial College in London analysed the results and announced in May 2012 that they too suspected extensive fraud.[97]

The Wall Street Journal, working with political scientists from the University of Michigan and the University of Chicago, published their own analysis of the election results, and pointed out a number of features which they believe indicate fraud. They estimate that as many as 14 million of the 65.7 million votes may be fraudulent.[98]

An article published in Polit Online[99] looked at criticisms of the analysis. The supposition of Gaussian distribution was criticized by sociologist Aleksey Grazhdankin, a Deputy Director of Levada Center (top independent non-governmental polling and sociological research organization in Russia).[99] Grazhdankin cites regional differences and the existence of the so-called "electoral enclaves" in Russia, which vote very differently from the surrounding areas, often because the recent rise of the quality of life in such enclaves is associated with the actions of the authorities.[99] Grazhdankin says he does not believe the graphs with non-Gaussian distributions indicate vote fraud.[99] Still, in his comment[100] to Vedomosti, Grazhdankin claimed that the most likely explanation to abnormal results observed in Moscow is fraud. Statistician Mikhail Simkin has also argued that the vote distribution should not be necessarily normal.[101]

Further reading

References

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  2. ↑ Антиоранжевый митинг проходит на Поклонной горе RIAN (Russian)
  3. ↑ Митинг на Поклонной горе Interfax (Russian)
  4. ↑ Померились цифрами vz.ru (Russian)
  5. ↑ Как митинг на Поклонной собрал около 140 000 человек politonline.ru (Russian)
  6. 1 2 3 ЦИК признал несостоятельными 90 процентов жалоб на думские выборы Lenta.ru
  7. 1 2 СКР объявил ролики с нарушениями на выборах смонтированными Lenta.ru (Russian)
  8. ↑ (Russian) FEDERAL LAW ON THE ELECTION OF DEPUTIES OF THE STATE DUMA FEDERAL ASSEMBLY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION – Article 82.1. Point 2 and 3
  9. ↑ "Яблоко" сдало на проверку в Центризбирком 150 тысяч подписей (in Russian). RIA Novosti. 17 October 2011. Retrieved 4 December 2011.
  10. ↑ «ЯБЛОКО» сдало в ЦИК подписи для регистрации на выборах – NSNews
  11. ↑ "Предварительная информация о проведении съездов политических партий по вопросу выдвижения федеральных списков кандидатов на выборы в Государственную Думу Федерального Собрания Российской Федерации шестого созыва". Electoral Commission. 8 September 2011. Retrieved 21 October 2011.
  12. ↑ ВЦИОМ: Всероссийский Центр Изучения Общественного Мнения: Информационные материалы. Wciom.ru. 12.11.2010. Retrieved on 7 December 2011.
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  14. ↑ Рейтинги партий (февраль 2011). Levada.ru (2011-02-18). Retrieved on 7 December 2011.
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  36. 1 2 Суд оштрафовал ассоциацию "Голос" Lenta.ru (Russian)
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  39. ↑ "Election fraud in Russia caught on video: ballot-stuffing, erasable ink and more". France 24. 6 December 2011.
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  43. ↑ Наблюдатели заметили расхождение данных протоколов и сайта Мосгоризбиркома: это уже наглость (in Russian).
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  45. ↑ Ioffe, Julia, "Russian Elections: Faking It", The New Yorker blogpost, 5 December 2011. Attempting to monitor balloting at polling station #2390, an old school in Yasenevo, Russian-borne American journalist Ioffe encountered clear indications of ballot-box stuffing. She saw "neat stacks of ballots, perfectly and evenly folded, that slipped out from between the sea of ballots spilling out of each box as it was cracked open". Another person Ioffe observed first-hand managed to grab a stack of ballots: she "carefully unfolded the ballots, and said, 'They’re all for United Russia! Of course! Who else stuffs the ballot boxes?'" Ioffe also noted particularly "the level of anger in the [pro-United Russia] Yasenevo election commission -- the sneering, the barking; the scoffing, yelling, and smirking. I left the precinct with shaking hands." Retrieved 2011-12-06.
  46. ↑ По предварительным подсчетам данных проекта "Гражданин-наблюдатель", в Москве "Едина Россия" приписала себе около 17 процентов голосов (in Russian).
  47. ↑ "Пресс-конференция 7 декабря - первые итоги выборов".
  48. ↑ Право выбора (Russian)
  49. ↑ Данные о нарушениях на избирательных участках Петербурга будут собираться на сайте «Держи вора» Ekho Moskvy in Saint Petersburg (Russian)
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  75. 1 2 Митинг "Наших" оказался многочисленнее мероприятия оппозиции (Russian)
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  77. ↑ "Troops on Moscow streets as tensions flare". Financial Times. 6 December 2011.
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  79. ↑ Protests over Russian Elections Spread to More Cities | News | English. Voanews.com. 6 December 2011. Retrieved on 7 December 2011.
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  81. ↑ Clover, Charles. (2011-11-28) Protesters defy troops on Moscow streets. FT.com. Retrieved on 7 December 2011.
  82. ↑ Ioffe, Julia, "Putin’s Big Mistake?", The New Yorker blogpost, 6 December 2011. Retrieved 6 December 2011.
  83. ↑ Итогам парламентских выборов были сегодня посвящены многотысячные митинги в центре Москвы Channel One (Russian)
  84. ↑ На Манежной прошел митинг прокремлевских движений (Russian)
  85. 1 2 http://www.levada.ru/08-11-2011/reitingi-odobreniya-pervykh-lits-polozheniya-del-v-strane-elektoralnye-predpochteniya
  86. ↑ "Результаты ЕР по Москве почти вдвое превышают результаты exit poll" (in Russian).
  87. ↑ Сурков – среднему классу: Хватит вопить! (in Russian).
  88. ↑ Наш дурдом голосует "за" (in Russian).
  89. ↑ "ФОМ объяснил, почему убрал с сайта exit poll по округам и Москве".
  90. ↑ Barry, Ellen, and David M. Herszenhorn, "Billionaire and Ex-Minister to Oppose Putin in Russian Presidential Election" (limited no-charge access), The New York Times, 12 December 2011. The "elections ... were condemned as fraudulent by international and local monitors, and protested by a vehement swath of middle-class Russians". Retrieved 2011-12-12.
  91. ↑ Как все было на самом деле. Избирательный участок №6 г. Москва. Хроника одного дня. (in Russian).
  92. ↑ Статистика исследовала выборы (in Russian).
  93. ↑ Истина в цифрах: Как математики ищут следы фальсификаций на выборах (in Russian).
  94. ↑ "S. Shpilkin "Математика выборов — 2011" (Mathematics of Elections), Troitsky Variant № 94, 20 Dec 2011, pages 2-4". Trv-science.ru. 2011-12-20. Retrieved 2012-04-01.
  95. ↑ Выбирать не приходится (in Russian).
  96. ↑ Myagkov, Mikhail G.; Peter C. Ordeshook; Dimitri Shakin (2009-05-31). The forensics of election fraud: Russia and Ukraine. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-76470-4.
  97. ↑ "Study shows Putin's election victory doesn't add up". Telegraph. Retrieved 19 May 2012.
  98. ↑ White, Gregory L.; Rob Barry (2011-12-28). "Russia's Dubious Vote". wsj.com. Retrieved 2011-12-28.
  99. 1 2 3 4 В Леваде не верят в график 'Гаусса против Чурова', а математики его опровергают (in Russian).
  100. ↑ ""Единая Россия" набрала в Москве не более 32% на думских выборах / United Russia (actually) got 32% in Moscow".
  101. ↑ Mikhail Simkin (2012-01-19). "US elections are as 'non-normal' as Russian elections - Web Exclusive Article". Significance Magazine. Retrieved 2013-10-24.

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