United States presidential election in Vermont, 2008

United States presidential election in Vermont, 2008
Vermont
November 4, 2008
 
Nominee Barack Obama John McCain
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Illinois Arizona
Running mate Joe Biden Sarah Palin
Electoral vote 3 0
Popular vote 219,262 98,974
Percentage 67.46% 30.45%

County results
  Obama—70-80%
  Obama—60-70%
  Obama—50-60%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

The 2008 United States presidential election in Vermont took place on November 4, 2008 concurrent with the federal election in all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 3 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Vermont was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama with 67.46%, to Republican John McCain's 30.45%, a Democratic victory margin of 37.01%.

Obama carried every county by more than 60 percent of the vote with the exception of Essex County, which he won with 56 percent. He also broke 70% in 3 counties.

A very liberal Northeastern state, Vermont was the second most Democratic state in the nation, weighing in as a whopping 30% more Democratic than the national average in the 2008 election.

Obama's landslide win in Vermont outperformed Lyndon Johnson's 1964 Democratic landslide in the state, making the results of 2008 the strongest Democratic victory in Vermont's history.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

Elections in Vermont

There were 17 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

  1. D.C. Political Report: Democrat[1]
  2. Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat[2]
  3. Takeaway: Solid Obama[3]
  4. Election Projection: Solid Obama[4]
  5. Electoral-vote.com: Strong Democrat[5]
  6. Washington Post: Solid Obama[6]
  7. Politico: Solid Obama[7]
  8. Real Clear Politics: Solid Obama[8]
  9. FiveThirtyEight.com: Solid Obama[9]
  10. CQ Politics: Safe Democrat[10]
  11. New York Times: Solid Democrat[11]
  12. CNN: Safe Democrat[12]
  13. NPR: Solid Obama[13]
  14. MSNBC: Solid Obama[14]
  15. Fox News: Democrat[15]
  16. Associated Press: Democrat[16]
  17. Rasmussen Reports: Safe Democrat[17]

Polling

Obama won every single pre-election poll, and each with a double digit margin of victory. The final 3 polls averaged Obama leading 59% to 35%.[18]

Fundraising

Obama raised a total of $2,071,271 in the state. McCain raised $206,395.[19]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign spent any money on advertising in Vermont.[20] Neither campaign visited the state.[21]

Analysis

Vermont was once the quintessential Yankee Republican state. It identified with the newly formed GOP in 1856 and remained in the Republican fold for over 130 years. From 1856 to 1988, it only voted for a Democrat once, in Lyndon Johnson's 44-state landslide of 1964. Vermont and Maine were the only states that Franklin D. Roosevelt didn't carry in any of his four elections.

However, the brand of Republicanism practiced in the Green Mountain State has historically been a moderate one. Coupled with an influx of more liberal newcomers from out of state, this made Vermont considerably friendlier to Democrats as the national GOP moved further to the right. After narrowly supporting George H. W. Bush in 1988, Vermont gave Bill Clinton a 16-point margin in 1992. Republicans have not seriously contested the state since then, and Vermont is now reckoned as part of the solid bloc of blue states in New England.

The 2008 race kept this tradition going. Obama won with 67 percent of the vote to McCain's 30 percent. The state was called for Obama almost as soon as the polls closed, and was the first state called for Obama. As a measure of how Democratic Vermont has become, George W. Bush is the only Republican president to win election without carrying Vermont; in both of his campaigns, he lost the state by a substantial margin.

Vermont was Obama's second-best state and his best in the contiguous 48 states; only topped by the staggering 71 percent he received in Hawaii. The Obama-Biden ticket won every county in the state, including several north eastern counties which had a history of voting Republican.[22] Obama also performed better than John Kerry in every county.[23]

Results

United States presidential election in Vermont, 2008
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 219,262 67.46% 3
Republican John McCain Sarah Palin 98,974 30.45% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 3,339 1.03% 0
Write-ins* Write-ins 1,464 0.45% 0
Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root 1,067 0.33% 0
Constitution Chuck Baldwin Darrell Castle 500 0.15% 0
Others* Others 440 0.14% 0
Totals 325,046 100.00% 3
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 66.7%

By county

County Obama Votes McCain Votes Others Votes Total
Addison County 68.62% 13,202 29.46% 5,667 1.92% 369 19,238
Bennington County 65.47% 12,524 32.06% 6,133 2.47% 472 19,129
Caledonia County 60.43% 8,900 37.15% 5,472 2.42% 356 14,728
Chittenden County 71.44% 59,611 26.65% 22,237 1.91% 1,592 83,440
Essex County 55.89% 1,733 41.41% 1,284 2.71% 84 3,101
Franklin County61.41% 13,179 36.59% 7,853 1.99% 428 21,460
Grand Isle County 63.11% 2,694 34.90% 1,490 1.99% 85 4,269
Lamoille County 70.37% 8,914 27.75% 3,515 1.88% 239 12,668
Orange County 64.56% 9,799 33.25% 5,047 2.19% 333 15,179
Orleans County 62.63% 7,998 35.10% 4,482 2.27% 291 12,771
Rutland County 61.22% 19,355 36.64% 11,584 2.14% 678 31,617
Washington County 69.33% 22,324 28.35% 9,129 2.32% 747 32,200
Windham County 73.02% 17,585 24.90% 5,997 2.08% 499 24,081
Windsor County 68.81% 21,444 29.15% 9,084 2.04% 637 31,165

Electors

Technically the voters of Vermont, as they do in every state, cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Vermont is allocated three electors because it has one congressional district and two senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 3 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 3 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[25] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were elected at large as members of the Electoral College from the state. All three were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:[26]

  1. Claire Ayer
  2. Euan Bear
  3. Kevin Christie

See also

References

  1. ↑ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/Predictions.html
  2. ↑ http://www.cookpolitical.com/presidential#belowMap
  3. ↑ Adnaan (2008-09-20). "Track the Electoral College vote predictions". The Takeaway. Retrieved 2009-11-14.
  4. ↑ http://www.electionprojection.com/2008elections/president08.shtml
  5. ↑ http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Dec31.html
  6. ↑ Based on Takeaway
  7. ↑ http://www.politico.com/convention/swingstate.html
  8. ↑ http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5
  9. ↑ Based on Takeaway
  10. ↑ https://web.archive.org/20090614004022/http://innovation.cq.com:80/prezMap08. Archived from [http%3A%2F%2Finnovation.cq.com%2FprezMap08%2F the original] Check |url= value (help) on June 14, 2009. Retrieved December 20, 2009. Missing or empty |title= (help)
  11. ↑ Nagourney, Adam; Zeleny, Jeff; Carter, Shan (2008-11-04). "The Electoral Map: Key States". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  12. ↑ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. October 31, 2008. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  13. ↑ Based on Takeaway
  14. ↑ Based on Takeaway
  15. ↑ "Winning The Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
  16. ↑ http://hosted.ap.org/specials/interactives/campaign_plus/roadto270/
  17. ↑ http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update
  18. ↑ http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=50
  19. ↑ http://www.fec.gov/DisclosureSearch/MapAppState.do?stateName=VT&cand_id=P00000001
  20. ↑ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  21. ↑ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  22. ↑ The New York Times http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html. Retrieved May 26, 2010. Missing or empty |title= (help)
  23. ↑ The New York Times http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html. Retrieved May 26, 2010. Missing or empty |title= (help)
  24. ↑ "Our Campaigns - VT US President Race - Nov 04, 2008". ourcampaigns.com. 2009. Retrieved 2015-08-25.
  25. ↑ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Retrieved 2008-11-01.
  26. ↑ http://vermont-elections.org/

External links

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