United States presidential election in New York, 2008

United States presidential election in New York, 2008

November 4, 2008

Nominee Barack Obama John McCain Party Democratic Republican Home state Illinois Arizona Running mate Joe Biden Sarah Palin Electoral vote 31 0 Popular vote 4,804,945 2,752,771 Percentage 62.88% 36.03%

County Results   Obama—80-90%   Obama—70-80%   Obama—60-70%   Obama—50-60%   Obama—<50%   McCain—<50%   McCain—50-60%   McCain—60-70%

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President Barack Obama Democratic

The 2008 United States presidential election in New York took place on November 4, 2008 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 31 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

New York was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama with a 26.9% margin of victory. Obama took 62.88% of the vote to McCain's 36.03%. At the time this was the highest Democratic vote share in New York State since 1964, although Obama would outperform his 2008 showing in New York just four years later in 2012. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state Obama would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. Located in the Northeast, a region of the country that is trending heavily towards the Democrats, elections in the Empire State are dominated by the presence of the heavily populated, heavily diverse, liberal bastion of New York City where Democrats are always favored to win. Despite the fact that Hillary Rodham Clinton, the former junior U.S. Senator from New York, did not receive the Democratic presidential nomination, there appeared to be no hard feelings in the state among her constituents as the state swung even more into the Democratic column in 2008 as New York's 31 electoral college votes went to Barack Obama.

Primaries

• New York Democratic primary, 2008
• New York Republican primary, 2008

Campaign

Predictions

There were 17 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

1. D.C. Political Report: Democrat^[1]
2. Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat^[2]
3. Takeaway: Solid Obama^[3]
4. Election Projection: Solid Obama^[4]
5. Electoral-vote.com: Strong Democrat^[5]
6. Washington Post: Solid Obama^[6]
7. Politico: Solid Obama^[7]
8. Real Clear Politics: Solid Obama^[8]
9. FiveThirtyEight.com: Solid Obama^[6]
10. CQ Politics: Safe Democrat^[9]
11. New York Times: Solid Democrat^[10]
12. CNN: Safe Democrat^[11]
13. NPR: Solid Obama^[6]
14. MSNBC: Solid Obama^[6]
15. Fox News: Democrat^[12]
16. Associated Press: Democrat^[13]
17. Rasmussen Reports: Safe Democrat^[14]

Polling

Obama won all but one pre-election poll. Since September 15, Obama won each poll with a double digit margin of victory and each with at least 55% of the vote. He won the final Marist poll with a 36-point spread. The final 3 polls averaged Obama leading 63% to 31%.^[15]

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $12,582,856 in the state. Barack Obama raised $58,161,743.^[16]

Advertising and visits

Obama and his interest groups spent $1,148,016. McCain and his interest groups spent just $7,310.^[17] The Republican visited the state 11 times and the Democratic ticket visited the state 4 times.^[18]

Analysis

New York was once reckoned as a powerful swing state with a slight Democratic lean. However, the last time the state went Republican was for Ronald Reagan in 1984. Michael Dukakis narrowly won it in 1988, but the state has not been seriously contested since then. It is now considered an uncontested blue state, and was heavily favored to vote for Obama by a significant margin.

Elections in the Empire State are dominated by the presence of New York City, a Democratic stronghold for more than a century and a half. It is made up mostly of white liberals as well as ethnic and religious minorities—all voting blocs that strongly vote Democratic. Obama won Manhattan, Brooklyn, and the Bronx by margins of 5-to-1 or more and carried Queens by a 3-to-1 margin. The only borough McCain carried was Staten Island, traditionally the most conservative area of the city. Obama's combined million-vote margin in the Five Boroughs would have been enough by itself to carry the state.

However, Obama also dominated heavily Democratic Western New York, including Buffalo and Rochester, and the Capital District (Albany, Schenectady and Troy), as well as the increasingly Democratic Long Island and Syracuse areas. Even when New York was considered a swing state, a Republican had to carry Long Island and do reasonably well in either Western New York, the Capital District or Syracuse to make up for the massive Democratic margins in New York City. Obama also won a number of traditionally Republican-leaning counties in Upstate New York and became the first Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson to win an outright majority of votes in the Upstate (although Democratic candidates had been consistently winning pluralities of the vote since 1992).

At the same time, Democrats in New York picked up three seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in 2008. In the 13th district, which consists of Staten Island and part of Brooklyn, Democrats picked up an open seat that was vacated by former Republican Vito Fossella who resigned after he was arrested for getting a DUI. Democrat Michael McMahon solidly defeated Republican Robert Staniere by a two-to-one margin, 60.79-33.26%. His victory made the city's delegation entirely Democratic for the first time in over 70 years. In the 25th district, centered around Syracuse, Democrat Dan Maffei handily defeated Republican Dale Sweetland 55% to 42% for the open seat vacated by Republican Jim Walsh. In New York's 29th congressional district, which includes Canandaigua, Democrat Eric Massa narrowly defeated incumbent Republican Randy Kuhl by 1.7 points. This reduced the Republicans to only three of the state's 29 seats in the House—the fewest the GOP has ever won in an election. At the state level, Democrats picked up a seat in the New York State Assembly and two seats in the New York State Senate which gave Democrats control of the Senate and ultimately both chambers of the New York Legislature for the first time since 1965. This gave the Democrats complete control of New York's state government for the first time since 1936.

Results

United States presidential election in New York, 2008
Party		Candidate	Running mate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Barack Obama		4,645,332	60.80%
	Working Families	Barack Obama		159,613	2.09%
	Total	Barack Obama	Joe Biden	4,804,945	62.88%	31
	Republican	John McCain		2,418,323	31.65%
	Conservative	John McCain		170,475	2.23%
	Independence	John McCain		163,973	2.15%
	Total	John McCain	Sarah Palin	2,752,771	36.03%	0
	Populist	Ralph Nader	Matt Gonzalez	41,249	0.54%	0
	Libertarian	Bob Barr	Wayne Allyn Root	19,596	0.26%	0
	Green	Cynthia McKinney	Rosa Clemente	12,801	0.17%	0
	Socialist Workers	James Harris	Alyson Kennedy	3,615	0.05%	0
	Write-ins	Write-ins		3,272	0.04%	0
	Socialism and Liberation	Gloria La Riva	Eugene Puryear	1,639	0.02%	0
	Constitution (Write-in)	Chuck Baldwin	Darrell Castle	646	0.01%	0
	Independent (Write-in)	Ron Paul		341	>0.01%	0
	America's Independent (Write-in)	Alan Keyes	Brian Rohrbough	35	>0.01%	0
	Socialist Equality (Write-in)	Jerry White	Bill Van Auken	18	>0.01%	0
	Socialist (Write-in)	Brian Moore	Stewart Alexander	10	>0.01%	0
	Independent (Write-In)	Lanakila Washington		3	>0.01%	0
	Heartquake '08 (Write-In)	Jonathan E. Allen		1	>0.01%	0
	Independent (Write-In)	Michael Skok		1	>0.01%	0
Totals				7,640,948	100.00%	31
Voter turnout (Voting age population)						52.1%

Results breakdown

Geographic Breakdown

Barack Obama dominated in fiercely Democratic New York City, taking 2,074,159 votes to John McCain's 524,787, giving Obama a 79.29% - 20.06% landslide victory citywide.

Excluding the votes of New York City, Obama still would have carried New York State, but by a smaller margin. Obama would have received 2,730,786 votes to McCain's 2,227,984, giving Obama a 55.06% - 44.93% victory.

By county

County	Obama%	Obama#	McCain%	McCain#	Others%	Others#
Bronx	88.7%	338,261	10.9%	41,683	0.4%	1,378
New York (Manhattan)	85.7%	572,126	13.5%	89,906	0.8%	5,562
Kings (Brooklyn)	79.4%	603,525	20.0%	151,872	0.6%	4,451
Queens	75.1%	480,692	24.3%	155,221	0.6%	4,076
Tompkins	70.1%	29,826	28.0%	11,927	1.9%	799
Albany	63.8%	93,937	34.4%	50,586	1.9%	2,743
Westchester	63.4%	261,810	35.8%	147,824	0.8%	3,410
Ulster	60.7%	52,539	37.6%	32,527	1.7%	1,476
Clinton	60.6%	20,216	37.7%	12,579	1.6%	542
Franklin	60.3%	10,571	38.1%	6,676	1.6%	273
Onondaga	59.3%	129,317	38.9%	84,972	1.8%	3,950
Monroe	58.2%	207,225	40.5%	144,153	1.3%	4,781
Erie	58.0%	256,299	40.5%	178,815	1.6%	6,871
St. Lawrence	57.4%	23,706	41.0%	16,956	1.6%	664
Essex	55.9%	10,390	42.6%	7,913	1.6%	292
Columbia	55.9%	17,556	42.4%	13,337	1.7%	540
Schenectady	55.3%	38,611	42.6%	29,758	2.1%	1,473
Cortland	54.1%	11,861	44.2%	9,678	1.7%	381
Sullivan	54.0%	16,850	44.6%	13,900	1.4%	433
Nassau	53.8%	342,067	45.4%	288,758	0.7%	4,657
Rensselaer	53.7%	39,753	44.4%	32,840	1.9%	1,393
Dutchess	53.7%	71,060	45.1%	59,628	1.2%	1,614
Cayuga	53.3%	18,128	44.8%	15,243	1.9%	651
Broome	53.1%	47,204	45.1%	40,077	1.8%	1,556
Rockland	52.6%	69,543	46.7%	61,752	0.7%	898
Suffolk	52.5%	346,379	46.5%	306,815	0.9%	6,209
Otsego	52.0%	13,570	46.0%	12,026	2.0%	525
Orange	51.5%	78,326	47.4%	72,042	1.1%	1,614
Saratoga	50.9%	56,645	47.5%	52,855	1.7%	1,887
Warren	50.5%	16,281	47.8%	15,429	1.7%	535
Seneca	50.3%	7,422	47.7%	7,038	1.9%	281
Oswego	50.2%	24,777	47.8%	23,571	2.0%	1,001
Niagara	49.7%	47,303	48.6%	46,348	1.7%	1,621
Chautauqua	49.5%	29,129	48.6%	28,579	1.9%	1,074
Washington	49.5%	12,741	48.7%	12,533	1.8%	456
Madison	49.3%	14,692	48.4%	14,434	2.3%	676
Ontario	49.2%	25,103	49.3%	25,171	1.5%	746
Chemung	48.8%	18,888	50.0%	19,364	1.1%	443
Chenango	48.4%	10,100	49.6%	10,337	2.0%	410
Richmond (Staten Island)	47.6%	79,311	51.7%	86,062	0.7%	1,205
Yates	47.6%	4,890	51.3%	5,269	1.2%	121
Jefferson	46.7%	18,166	52.0%	20,219	1.3%	500
Delaware	46.4%	9,462	51.6%	10,524	2.0%	403
Oneida	46.1%	43,506	52.2%	49,256	1.7%	1,603
Putnam	45.7%	21,613	53.2%	25,145	1.0%	486
Schuyler	45.7%	3,933	52.8%	4,542	1.5%	125
Livingston	45.3%	13,655	53.2%	16,030	1.5%	464
Montgomery	45.0%	9,080	53.1%	10,711	1.9%	384
Lewis	44.8%	4,986	53.6%	5,969	1.6%	183
Herkimer	44.5%	12,094	53.8%	14,619	1.7%	471
Fulton	44.4%	9,695	53.7%	11,709	1.9%	420
Wayne	44.3%	18,184	54.2%	22,239	1.5%	622
Greene	44.1%	9,850	54.0%	12,059	1.9%	426
Tioga	44.0%	10,172	54.2%	12,536	1.8%	423
Cattaraugus	43.9%	14,307	54.5%	17,770	1.7%	540
Schoharie	41.7%	6,009	56.0%	8,071	2.2%	322
Steuben	40.9%	17,148	57.7%	24,203	1.3%	560
Genesee	40.0%	10,762	58.4%	15,705	1.5%	406
Orleans	39.9%	6,614	58.5%	9,708	1.6%	262
Allegany	38.1%	7,016	59.8%	11,013	2.0%	377
Wyoming	36.1%	6,379	62.3%	10,998	1.6%	290
Hamilton	35.9%	1,225	62.8%	2,141	1.3%	45

By congressional district

Barack Obama swept 25 of the state’s 29 congressional districts in New York, including one district held by a Republican. John McCain carried four districts, including two districts that simultaneously elected a Democrat to the U.S. House.

District	McCain	Obama	Representative
1st	47.62%	51.44%	Tim Bishop
2nd	43.09%	56.13%	Steve Israel
3rd	51.90%	47.27%	Peter T. King
4th	41.35%	57.99%	Carolyn McCarthy
5th	36.06%	63.24%	Gary Ackerman
6th	10.68%	89.03%	Gregory W. Meeks
7th	20.37%	79.12%	Joseph Crowley
8th	25.45%	73.70%	Jerrold Nadler
9th	43.92%	55.32%	Anthony D. Weiner
10th	8.70%	91.03%	Edolphus Towns
11th	9.07%	90.49%	Yvette D. Clark
12th	13.12%	86.17%	Nydia Velasquez
13th	50.56%	48.74%	Vito Fossella (110th Congress)
Michael McMahon (111th Congress)
14th	20.92%	78.19%	Carolyn B. Maloney
15th	6.17%	93.21%	Charlie Rangel
16th	5.04%	94.76%	Jose Serrano
17th	27.53%	71.92%	Eliot L. Engel
18th	37.57%	61.66%	Nita Lowey
19th	48.37%	50.65%	John Hall
20th	47.70%	50.70%	Kirsten Gillibrand (110th Congress)
Scott Murphy (111th Congress)
21st	40.00%	58.14%	Paul Tonko
22nd	39.31%	59.23%	Maurice Hinchey
23rd	46.59%	51.81%	John M. McHugh
24th	47.97%	50.33%	Mike Arcuri
25th	42.62%	55.74%	James T. Walsh (110th Congress)
Dan Maffei (111th Congress)
26th	52.15%	46.43%	Thomas M. Reynolds (110th Congress)
Christopher Lee (111th Congress)
27th	44.03%	54.19%	Brian Higgins
28th	30.29%	68.47%	Louise Slaughter
29th	50.46%	48.24%	Randy Kuhl (110th Congress)
Eric Massa (111th Congress)

Electors

Technically the voters of NY cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. NY is allocated 31 electors because it has 29 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 31 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 31 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.^[19] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 31 electors were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:^[20]

1. Velda Jeffrey
2. June O'Neill
3. Dennis Mehiel
4. David Paterson
5. Andrew Cuomo
6. Thomas DiNapoli
7. Sheldon Silver
8. Malcolm Smith
9. Maria Luna
10. Robert Master
11. Pamela Green-Perkins
12. Helen D. Foster
13. Jon Cooper
14. Hakeem Jeffries
15. Richard Fife
16. Deborah Slott
17. Terrence Yang
18. George Arthur
19. George Gresham
20. Alan Van Capelle
21. Inez Dickens
22. Suzy Ballantyne
23. Alan Lubin
24. Bethaida Gonzalez
25. Christine Quinn
26. William Thompson
27. Stuart Applebaum
28. Maritza Davila
29. Ivan Young
30. Barbara J. Fiala
31. Frank A. Bolz

References

1. D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries
2. Presidential | The Cook Political Report
3. Adnaan (2008-09-20). "Track the Electoral College vote predictions". The Takeaway. Retrieved 2009-11-14.
4. Election Projection: 2008 Elections - Polls, Projections, Results
5. Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily
6. Based on Takeaway
7. POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com
8. RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map
9. CQ Politics | CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008
10. "Electoral College Map". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
11. "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
12. "Winning the Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
13. roadto270
14. Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports™
15. Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
16. Presidential Campaign Finance
17. "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
18. "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
19. "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Retrieved 2008-11-01.
20. U. S. Electoral College 2008 Election - Certificates