United States presidential election in New York, 2004

United States presidential election in New York, 2004

November 2, 2004

Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush Party Democratic Republican Home state Massachusetts Texas Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney Electoral vote 31 0 Popular vote 4,314,280 2,962,567 Percentage 58.37% 40.08%

County Results   Kerry—80-90%   Kerry—70-80%   Kerry—60-70%   Kerry—50-60%   Kerry—<50%   Bush—<50%   Bush—50-60%   Bush—60-70%

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President George W. Bush Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in New York took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 33 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

New York was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry with an 18.3% margin of victory. Kerry took 58.37% of the vote to Bush's 40.08%. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Kerry would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. A Republican presidential nominee last carried the state of New York in the 1984 election.

Primaries

• New York Democratic primary, 2004
• New York Republican primary, 2004

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.^[1]

1. D.C. Political Report: Solid Democrat
2. Associated Press: Solid Kerry
3. CNN: Kerry
4. Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat
5. Newsweek: Solid Kerry
6. New York Times: Solid Kerry
7. Rasmussen Reports: Kerry
8. Research 2000: Solid Kerry
9. Washington Post: Kerry
10. Washington Times: Solid Kerry
11. Zogby International: Kerry
12. Washington Dispatch: Kerry

Polling

Kerry won every single pre-election poll, and all but one with a double digit margin and with at least 49%. The final 3 poll average showed Kerry leading 55% to 38%.^[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $11,994,227.^[3] Kerry raised $27,733,309.^[4]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited the state during the fall campaign.^[5][6]

Geographic Analysis

The voters of the five boroughs of New York City were the main force responsible for Kerry's decisive victory in the state. Kerry won New York City by an overwhelming margin, taking 1,828,015 votes to Bush's 587,534, a 74.99% to 24.10% victory. Excluding New York City's votes, John Kerry still would have carried New York State, but by a reduced margin, taking 2,486,265 votes to Bush's 2,375,033 votes, a 51.14% - 48.86% victory.

The New York suburbs consist of Long Island, Westchester and Rockland counties. Traditionally Republican, this area went clearly Democratic through the past few decades, with the arrival of people from New York City. However, in this area where many voters commute to Manhattan, Bush did better than expected. Although he clearly lost these counties to Gore in 2000 with 39.55% to 56.42%, or 655,665 votes to 935,456, he only lost them by a close 46.13% to 52.30% to Kerry. While Bush won 167,397 more votes than in 2000, Kerry lost 2,437. This can be mainly explained by the concerns of suburban moderate voters about terrorism, an issue about which they trusted Bush more than Kerry.

Upstate New York region, including all of the counties that are not part of New York City or its suburbs, is the least liberal region of the three. Its politics are very similar to those of Ohio or Pennsylvania, both key swing states and sharing conservative rural areas. Despite this characteristic, Senator Kerry still managed a slim victory in Upstate New York, with 1,553,246 votes to 1,551,971 for Bush. This was largely due to a Democratic tidal wave in the region's four largest cities--Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse and Albany. Kerry also ran strongly in college dominated Tompkins County and two counties with an influx of former New York City residents moving to vacation homes, Ulster County and Columbia County.

Results

United States presidential election in New York, 2004[7]
Party		Candidate	Popular votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Democratic	John Kerry	4,180,755	56.57%
	Working Families	John Kerry	133,525	1.81%
	Total	John Kerry	4,314,280	58.37%	31
	Republican	George W. Bush	2,806,993	37.98%
	Conservative	George W. Bush	144,797	1.96%
	Total	George W. Bush	2,962,567	40.08%	0
	Independence	Ralph Nader	84,247	1.14%
	Peace and Justice	Ralph Nader	15,626	0.21%
	Total	Ralph Nader	99,873	1.35%	0
	Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	11,607	0.16%	0
	Socialist Workers	Roger Calero	2,405	0.03%	0
	Constitution (Write-In)	Michael Peroutka	363	>0.01%	0
	Green (Write-In)	David Cobb	138	>0.01%	0
	Independent (Write-In)	John J. Kennedy	8	>0.01%	0
	Independent (Write-In)	Michael Halpin	4	>0.01%	0
	Socialist Equality	Bill Van Auken	4	>0.01%	0
Totals			7,391,036	100%	31
Voter turnout:					50.4%

Results breakdown

By county

County	Kerry	Votes	Bush	Votes	Others	Votes
Bronx	82.8%	283,994	16.5%	56,701	0.7%	2,284
New York	82.1%	526,765	16.7%	107,405	1.2%	7,781
Brooklyn	74.9%	514,973	24.3%	167,149	0.8%	5,762
Queens	71.7%	433,835	27.4%	165,954	0.9%	5,603
Tompkins	64.2%	27,229	33.0%	13,994	2.8%	1,179
Albany	60.7%	89,323	37.3%	54,872	2.0%	3,004
Westchester	58.1%	229,849	40.3%	159,628	1.6%	6,293
Erie	56.4%	251,090	41.4%	184,423	2.2%	9,625
Saint Lawrence	54.7%	22,857	43.2%	18,029	2.1%	869
Ulster	54.3%	47,602	43.1%	37,821	2.6%	2,289
Onondaga	54.2%	116,381	43.8%	94,006	2.0%	4,202
Nassau	52.2%	323,070	46.6%	288,355	1.1%	6,918
Clinton	52.2%	17, 624	45.4%	15,330	2.3%	782
Franklin	52.1%	9,543	45.8%	8,383	2.1%	390
Schenectady	51.8%	35,971	46.2%	32,066	2.1%	1,432
Columbia	51.2%	15,929	46.5%	14,457	2.3%	717
Monroe	50.6%	173,497	47.7%	163,545	1.7%	5,939
Broome	50.4%	46,281	47.4%	43,568	2.2%	2,041
Rensselaer	49.7%	36,075	47.9%	34,734	2.4%	1,705
Suffolk	49.5%	315,909	48.5%	309,949	2.0%	12,854
Niagara	49.3%	47,602	48.8%	47,111	1.9%	1,867
Rockland	48.9%	64,191	49.6%	65,130	1.5%	1,910
Cayuga	48.6%	17,534	49.2%	17,743	2.1%	775
Sullivan	48.6%	15,034	49.5%	15,319	2.0%	613
Otsego	47.7%	12,723	50.1%	13,342	2.2%	587
Dutchess	47.0%	58,232	51.2%	63,372	1.8%	2,277
Cortland	46.9%	10,670	51.0%	11,613	2.1%	477
Oswego	46.8%	24,133	51.0%	26,325	2.2%	1,149
Essex	45.9%	8,768	51.7%	9,869	2.3%	445
Saratoga	45.6%	48,730	52.5%	56,158	1.9%	1,985
Seneca	45.5%	6,979	52.1%	7,981	2.4%	365
Chautauqua	44.7%	27,257	53.2%	32,434	2.1%	1,251
Montgomery	44.5%	9,449	53.4%	11,338	2.0%	434
Orange	43.8%	63,394	54.7%	79,089	1.5%	2,190
Chemung	43.7%	17,080	54.6%	21,321	1.7%	674
Chenango	43.5%	9,277	54.3%	11,582	2.3%	482
Jefferson	43.5%	16,860	54.7%	21,231	1.8%	709
Madison	43.3%	13,121	54.6%	16,537	2.1%	629
Warren	43.2%'	13,405	54.6%	16,969	2.2%	685
Oneida	42.8%	40,792	54.9%	52,392	2.3%	2,185
Richmond (Staten Island)	42.7%	68,448	56.4%	90,325	0.9%	1,370
Washington	42.3%	10,624	55.1%	13,827	2.6%	652
Ontario	42.2%	21,166	55.9%	27,999	1.9%	937
Putnam	42.0%	19,575	56.6%	26,356	1.4%	632
Fulton	41.4%	9,202	56.6%	12,570	2.0%	443
Delaware	41.2%	8,724	56.5%	11,958	2.3%	484
Herkimer	41.2%	11,675	56.6%	16,024	2.2%	611
Tioga	40.6%	9,694	57.6%	13,762	1.9%	446
Schuyler	40.1%	3,445	57.7%	4,960	2.2%	185
Greene	39.9%	8,933	58.0%	12,996	2.1%	469
Lewis	39.9%	4,546	58.1%	6,624	2.0%	227
Cattaraugus	39.4%	13,514	58.5%	20,051	2.0%	697
Yates	39.3%	4,205	58.9%	6,309	1.8%	197
Schoharie	38.7%	5,630	59.0%	8,591	2.3%	336
Livingston	38.4%	11,504	59.2%	17,729	2.4%	715
Wayne	38.1%	15,709	60.0%	24,709	1.9%	782
Genesee	37.5%	10,331	60.6%	16,725	1.9%	524
Orleans	36.0%	5,959	62.3%	10,317	1.8%	297
Steuben	34.3%	14,523	63.8%	26,980	1.8%	781
Allegany	34.1%	6,566	63.9%	12,310	2.0%	394
Wyoming	33.8%	6,134	64.7%	11,745	1.6%	285
Hamilton	31.0%	1,145	67.0%	2,475	2.0%	72

By congressional district

Kerry won 20 of 29 congressional districts.^[8]

District	Bush	Kerry	Representative
1st	49%	49%	Tim Bishop
2nd	45%	53%	Steve Israel
3rd	52%	47%	Peter T. King
4th	44%	55%	Carolyn McCarthy
5th	36%	63%	Gary Ackerman
6th	15%	84%	Gregory W. Meeks
7th	25%	74%	Joseph Crowley
8th	27%	72%	Jerrold Nadler
9th	44%	56%	Anthony D. Weiner
10th	13%	86%	Edolphus Towns
11th	13%	86%	Major Owens
12th	19%	80%	Nydia Velasquez
13th	55%	45%	Vito Fossella
14th	25%	75%	Carolyn B. Maloney
15th	9%	90%	Charlie Rangel
16th	10%	89%	Jose Serrano
17th	33%	67%	Eliot L. Engel
18th	42%	58%	Nita Lowey
19th	54%	45%	Sue W. Kelly
20th	54%	46%	John E. Sweeney
21st	43%	55%	Michael R. McNulty
22nd	45%	54%	Maurice Hinchey
23rd	51%	47%	John M. McHugh
24th	53%	47%	Sherwood Boehlert
25th	48%	50%	James T. Walsh
26th	55%	43%	Thomas M. Reynolds
27th	45%	53%	Jack Quinn
Brian Higgins
28th	36%	63%	Louise Slaughter
29th	56%	42%	Amo Houghton
Randy Kuhl

Electors

NY voters cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. New York has 31 electors because it has 29 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 31 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 31 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia meet in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from New York. All were pledged to and voted for Kerry/Edwards.

1. Joseph Ashton
2. Bill De Blasio
3. Molly Clifford
4. Lorraine Cortes-Vazquez
5. Inez Dickens
6. Danny Donahue
7. Herman D. Farrell
8. C. Virginia Fields
9. Emily Giske
10. Bea Gonzalez
11. Alan Hevesi
12. Frank Hoare
13. Virginia Kee
14. Peggy Kerry
15. Denise King
16. Len Lenihan
17. Bertha Lewis
18. Alan Lubin
19. Thomas Manton
20. Dennis Mehiel
21. June O'Neill
22. David Paterson
23. Jose Rivera
24. Rich Schaffer
25. Chung Seto
26. Sheldon Silver
27. Eliot Spitzer
28. Antoine Thompson
29. Paul Tokasz
30. Bill Wood
31. Robert Zimmerman

References

2. "Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved 8 October 2014.
3. "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved 8 October 2014.
4. "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved 8 October 2014.
5. "CNN.com Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved 8 October 2014.
6. "CNN.com Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved 8 October 2014.
7. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections 2004 - New York". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved 2013-01-07.
8. "Swing State Project". Swingstateproject.com. Retrieved 8 October 2014.