United States presidential election in California, 2004

United States presidential election in California, 2004
California
November 2, 2004
 
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney
Electoral vote 55 0
Popular vote 6,745,485 5,509,826
Percentage 54.31% 44.36%

County Results
  Kerry—80-90%
  Kerry—70-80%
  Kerry—60-70%
  Kerry—50-60%
  Kerry—<50%
  Bush—50-60%
  Bush—60-70%
  Bush—70-80%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in California took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 55 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

California was won by Democrat nominee John Kerry by a 9.95% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Kerry would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. Republicans have not taken California's electoral votes since George H.W. Bush's victory in 1988 against Michael Dukakis.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Solid Democrat
  2. Associated Press: Solid Kerry
  3. CNN: Kerry
  4. Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat
  5. Newsweek: Solid Kerry
  6. New York Times: Solid Kerry
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Kerry
  8. Research 2000: Solid Kerry
  9. Washington Post: Kerry
  10. Washington Times: Solid Kerry
  11. Zogby International: Kerry
  12. Washington Dispatch: Kerry

Polling

Kerry won every single pre-election poll. The final 3 polls average Kerry leading at 52% to Bush at 43% to Nader at 2%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $20,296,645, the second most money raised state for him. It accounted for 10.7% of all the money he raised in 2004.[3] Kerry raised $36,378,063, which is by far the most money raised for Kerry by any state. The money raised in California accounted for almost 20% of all money he raised in 2004. [4]

Advertising and visits

Neither Kerry nor Bush advertised or campaigned in the state during the fall election.[5] [6]

Analysis

California was once a Republican stronghold, supporting Republican candidates in every election from 1952 through 1988, except in 1964. However, since the 1990s, California has become a reliably Democratic state with a highly diverse ethnic population (mostly Latino) and liberal bastions such as the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles County. The last time the state was won by a Republican candidate was in 1988 by George H. W. Bush. In 2004, the state did swing slightly Republican by a 1.9% margin from 2000.

Results

United States presidential election in California, 2004[7][8]
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic John Kerry 6,745,485 54.31% 55
Republican George W. Bush 5,509,826 44.36% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 50,165 0.40% 0
Green David Cobb 40,771 0.33% 0
Peace and Freedom Leonard Peltier 27,607 0.22% 0
American Independent Michael Peroutka 26,645 0.21% 0
Independent Ralph Nader (write-in) 20,714 0.17% 0
Independent John Joseph Kennedy (write-in) 82 0.00% 0
Independent John Parker (write-in) 49 0.00% 0
Independent James Alexander-Pace (write-in) 8 0.00% 0
Independent Anthony Jabin (write-in) 1 0.00% 0
Invalid or blank votes 169,510
Totals 12,421,353 100.00% 55
Voter turnout (Voting Age voters) 74.7%

Results breakdown

By county

County Kerry Votes Bush Votes Others Votes
San Francisco 83.02% 296,772 15.21% 54,355 1.77% 6,338
Alameda 75.18% 422,585 23.29% 130,911 1.53% 8,590
Marin 73.21% 99,070 25.40% 34,378 1.39% 1,877
Santa Cruz 72.98% 89,102 24.86% 30,354 2.15% 2,628
San Mateo 69.48% 197,922 29.25% 83,315 1.27% 3,620
Sonoma 67.18% 148,261 30.90% 68,204 1.91% 4,225
Santa Clara 63.94% 386,100 34.63% 209,094 1.43% 8,622
Mendocino 63.45% 24,385 33.71% 12,955 2.83% 1,089
Los Angeles 63.10% 1,907,736 35.60% 1,076,225 1.30% 39,319
Contra Costa 62.28% 257,254 36.46% 150,608 1.25% 5,166
Monterey 60.36% 75,241 38.38% 47,838 1.26% 1,574
Napa 59.48% 33,666 38.97% 22,059 1.54% 874
Yolo 59.34% 42,885 38.75% 28,005 1.91% 1,379
Humboldt 57.66% 37,988 39.03% 25,714 3.31% 2,184
Solano 57.17% 85,096 41.86% 62,301 0.97% 1,440
Alpine 53.21% 373 44.37% 311 2.43% 17
Santa Barbara 53.17% 90,314 45.22% 76,806 1.61% 2,741
Lake 53.16% 13,141 44.88% 11,093 1.96% 485
San Benito 52.61% 9,851 46.45% 8,698 0.94% 176
Imperial 52.41% 17,964 46.36% 15,890 1.23% 420
Sacramento 49.52% 236,657 49.29% 235,539 1.19% 5,670
Mono 49.23% 2,628 49.10% 2,621 1.67% 89
Ventura 47.53% 148,859 51.19% 160,314 1.28% 4,020
San Diego 46.39% 526,437 52.52% 596,033 1.09% 12,378
San Joaquin 45.83% 87,012 53.18% 100,978 0.99% 1,874
San Luis Obispo 45.52% 58,742 52.69% 67,995 1.79% 2,313
Nevada 44.92% 24,220 53.39% 28,790 1.69% 910
Butte 44.14% 42,448 53.73% 51,662 2.13% 2,047
San Bernardino 43.57% 227,789 55.34% 289,306 1.09% 5,682
Trinity 42.71% 2,782 54.66% 3,560 2.63% 171
Merced 42.26% 24,491 56.54% 32,773 1.20% 696
Fresno 41.68% 103,154 57.38% 141,988 0.94% 2,321
Del Norte 41.31% 3,892 56.85% 5,356 1.84% 173
Riverside 41.04% 228,806 57.83% 322,473 1.13% 6,300
Stanislaus 40.40% 58,829 58.65% 85,407 0.95% 1,388
Orange 38.98% 419,239 59.68% 641,832 1.33% 14,328
Inyo 38.88% 3,350 59.09% 5,091 2.03% 175
Tuolumne 38.51% 10,104 60.02% 15,745 1.47% 386
Siskiyou 37.71% 7,880 60.64% 12,673 1.66% 346
Mariposa 37.55% 3,251 60.23% 5,215 2.22% 192
El Dorado 37.33% 32,242 61.23% 52,878 1.44% 1,244
Calaveras 37.09% 8,286 60.87% 13,601 2.04% 456
Plumas 36.90% 4,129 61.71% 6,905 1.39% 156
Amador 36.56% 6,541 62.08% 11,107 1.36% 243
Placer 36.26% 55,573 62.61% 95,969 1.13% 1,736
Madera 34.70% 13,481 64.02% 24,871 1.28% 498
Kings 33.74% 10,833 65.41% 21,003 0.85% 274
Sierra 33.16% 646 64.12% 1,249 2.72% 53
Tulare 32.87% 32,494 66.15% 65,399 0.98% 967
Kern 32.49% 68,603 66.49% 140,417 1.02% 2,154
Tehama 32.01% 7,504 66.42% 15,572 1.57% 368
Sutter 31.85% 9,602 67.19% 20,254 0.96% 289
Glenn 31.68% 2,995 66.72% 6,308 1.60% 151
Yuba 31.55% 5,687 67.00% 12,076 1.45% 261
Colusa 31.58% 1,947 67.17% 4,142 1.25% 77
Shasta 31.31% 24,339 67.22% 52,249 1.47% 1,143
Lassen 27.58% 3,158 70.97% 8,126 1.45% 166
Modoc 25.72% 1,149 72.42% 3,235 1.86% 83

By congressional district

Kerry won 31 congressional districts. Bush won 22 congressional districts.[9]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 38% 60% Mike Thompson
2nd 62% 37% Wally Herger
3rd 58% 41% Doug Ose
Dan Lungren
4th 61% 37% John Doolittle
5th 38% 61% Bob Matsui
Doris Matsui
6th 28% 70% Lynn Woolsey
7th 32% 67% George Miller
8th 14% 85% Nancy Pelosi
9th 13% 86% Barbara Lee
10th 40% 59% Ellen Tauscher
11th 54% 45% Richard Pombo
12th 27% 72% Tom Lantos
13th 28% 71% Pete Stark
14th 30% 68% Anna Eshoo
15th 36% 63% Mike Honda
16th 36% 63% Zoe Lofgren
17th 33% 66% Sam Farr
18th 50% 49% Dennis Cardoza
19th 61% 38% George Radanovich
20th 48% 51% Cal Dooley
Jim Costa
21st 65% 34% Devin Nunes
22nd 68% 31% Kevin McCarthy
23rd 40% 58% Lois Capps
24th 56% 43% Elton Gallegly
25th 59% 40% Howard McKeon
26th 55% 44% David Dreier
27th 39% 59% Brad Sherman
28th 28% 71% Howard Berman
29th 37% 61% Adam Schiff
30th 33% 66% Henry Waxman
31st 22% 77% Xavier Becerra
32nd 37% 62% Hilda Solis
33rd 16% 83% Diane Watson
34th 30% 69% Lucille Roybal-Allard
35th 20% 79% Maxine Waters
36th 40% 59% Jane Harman
37th 25% 74% Juanita Millender-McDonald
38th 34% 65% Grace Napolitano
39th 40% 59% Linda Sánchez
40th 60% 39% Ed Royce
41st 62% 37% Jerry Lewis
42nd 62% 37% Gary Miller
43rd 41% 58% Joe Baca
44th 59% 40% Ken Calvert
45th 56% 43% Mary Bono Mack
46th 57% 42% Dana Rohrabacher
47th 50% 49% Loretta Sanchez
48th 58% 40% Christopher Cox
John Campbell
49th 63% 36% Darrell Issa
50th 55% 44% Brian Bilbray
51st 46% 53% Bob Filner
52nd 61% 38% Duncan Hunter
53rd 38% 61% Susan Davis

Electors

Technically the voters of California cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. California is allocated 55 electors because it has 53 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 53 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 53 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from California. All were pledged to and voted for John Kerry and John Edwards.[10]

  1. Robert H. Manley
  2. Barbara Schraeger
  3. Paul Johnson
  4. Gary Simmons
  5. Paul Batterson
  6. Diana Madoshi
  7. Kyriakos Tsakopoulos
  8. Donald Linker
  9. Paula Sandusky
  10. Adam Woo
  11. Chloe Drew
  12. Karl Sliferv
  13. Gary Prost
  14. Joseph Cotchett
  15. John Smith
  16. George Marcus
  17. Mark Hsu
  18. Adele Bihn
  19. Darrell Darling
  20. Amarjit Dhaliwal
  21. Rocco Davis
  22. Kenneth Costa
  23. Barbara Pyle
  24. David Johnson
  25. Andrew M. Siegel
  26. Michael Carpenter
  27. Lynda Von Husen
  28. Randy Monroe
  29. Lane M. Sherman
  30. Moreen Blum
  31. Yolanda Dyer
  32. Paul I. Goldenberg
  33. Lenore Wax
  34. Mitch O'Farrell
  35. Franklin A. Acevedo
  36. Gwen Moore
  37. Pedro Carillo
  38. Karen Walters
  39. Ted Lieu
  40. Valerie McDonald
  41. Marvin
  42. Douglas E. Hitchcock
  43. Barbara Kerr
  44. Salvador Sanchez
  45. Joe Baca, Jr.
  46. Grant Gruber
  47. James T. Ewing
  48. Louise Giacoppe
  49. James G. Bohm
  50. Mark Lam
  51. Chuck Lower
  52. Susan Koehler
  53. Mary Salas
  54. Andrew Benjamin
  55. Margaret Lawrence

References

  1. ↑ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW
  2. ↑ Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
  3. ↑ George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President
  4. ↑ John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President
  5. ↑ "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  6. ↑ "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  7. ↑ "President" (PDF). California Secretary of State. 2005-02-22. Retrieved 2008-07-09.
  8. ↑ "Report of Registration as of October 18, 2004" (PDF). California Secretary of State. 2005-01-07. Retrieved 2013-01-16.
  9. ↑ Swing State Project: Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008
  10. ↑ U. S. Electoral College 2004 Election - Main Page

See also

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