United States presidential election in New Hampshire, 2004

United States presidential election in New Hampshire, 2004

November 2, 2004

Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush Party Democratic Republican Home state Massachusetts Texas Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney Electoral vote 4 0 Popular vote 340,511 331,237 Percentage 50.24% 48.87%

County Results   Kerry—50-60%   Bush—50-60%

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President George W. Bush Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in New Hampshire took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 4 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

New Hampshire was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 1.4% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered it as a swing state. Traditionally a more Republican leaning state of the heavily Democratic New England region, it was the only state in all of the Northeast to vote Republican in 2000. The state is considered to be more fiscally conservative than its neighbors in New England. However, like the rest of New England, it is considerably more liberal on social issues, which benefits Democratic candidates. New Hampshire was the only state that Bush won in the 2000 presidential election but lost in the 2004 presidential election. This has been the only time since 1976 that New Hampshire has not voted for the winning candidate.

Primaries

New Hampshire Democratic primary, 2004

January 27, 2004

Nominee John Kerry Howard Dean Wesley Clark Party Democratic Democratic Democratic Home state Massachusetts Vermont Illinois Popular vote 84,377 57,761 27,314 Percentage 38.35 26.25% 12.41%   Nominee John Edwards Joe Lieberman Dennis Kucinich Party Democratic Democratic Democratic Home state North Carolina Connecticut Ohio Popular vote 26,487 18,911 3,114 Percentage 12.04% 8.59% 1.42%

The 2004 New Hampshire Democratic Primary was held on January 27, 2004 across the state. Taking place 8 days after the Iowa Caucuses, it marked the second contest to take place during the Democratic party's 2004 primary season, as well as the first actual primary to take place.

Polling

Primary polling taken by American Research Group during the last few days of campaigning ( January 23 to January 27, 2004 ) showed that former New Hampshire poll leader as well as national leader Howard Dean was steadily gaining ground to catch up to now front runner John Kerry.

Candidate	January 23 to 25 poll tracking	January 24 to 26 poll tracking
John Kerry	38%	35%
Howard Dean	20%	25%
John Edwards	16%	15%
Wesley Clark	15%	13%
Joe Lieberman	5%	6%

Gathered from ARG's 2004 NH Democratic Tracking Poll ^[1]

Margin of Error +/- 4

Tracking polling showed that Dean had been catching up to Kerry in the days before the primary, cutting Kerry's 18 point lead to 10 points in a matter of days. With Dean dropping and Kerry rising, it became apparent that the battle for 1st place in New Hampshire would be close. Also, for third place, Wesley Clark, John Edwards and Joe Lieberman were the only ones fighting for third. With Clark and Edwards both taking hits going into the primary, a Lieberman on the rise, the fight for 1st place and third place, according to polls would be intense.

Results

As results began to come in during Primary night, it became apparent Kerry had won the primary and was promptly projected the winner by several media outlets. Dean finished in second place. Clark and Edwards were in a dead-lock for third place, with both candidates at 12% during the night.

As final results were being tallied, Kerry won the primary with 84,277 votes and 38%, Dean finished second with 57,761, and 26% and Clark narrowly defeated Edwards for third place with 27,314 votes and 12% ^[2]

Candidate	State Delegates	Percentage	Potential National delegates
John Kerry	84,377	38.35	12
Howard Dean	57,761	26.25	9
Wesley Clark	27,314	12.41	0
John Edwards	26,487	12.04	0
Joe Lieberman	18,911	8.59	0
Dennis Kucinich	3,114	01.42	0

Exit Polling

Category	All	Clark	Dean	Edwards	Kerry	Lieberman
Male	46%	13%	25%	14%	36%	10%
Female	54%	12%	26%	11%	41%	8%
18-64 Years	89%	12%	25%	13%	39%	8%
65+ Years	11%	10%	28%	10%	38%	13%
Democrat	48%	11%	29%	12%	41%	5%
Republican	4%	10%	8%	9%	29%	26%
Independent	48%	13%	23%	13%	37%	12%

Source: CNN.com 2004 Primaries ^[3]

Kerry won huge margins of support amongst almost all constituencies, with his only weak point amongst Republicans who made up 4% of the voting block and was Lieberman's strongest point. Dean repeatedly came distant seconds or third for almost all categories of voters. Edward defeated Clark amongst Male voters as well as voters under 65 but only by a very tiny margin. Lieberman finished in a distant third in almost all categories except for Republicans in which he nearly defeated John Kerry.

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.^[4]

1. D.C. Political Report: Slight Democrat
2. Associated Press: Toss Up
3. CNN: Kerry
4. Cook Political Report: Toss Up
5. Newsweek: Toss Up
6. New York Times: Toss Up
7. Rasmussen Reports: Toss Up
8. Research 2000: Toss Up
9. Washington Post: Battleground
10. Washington Times: Battleground
11. Zogby International: Kerry
12. Washington Dispatch: Kerry

Polling

Pre-election polling was back and forth, with no clear indication who would end up winning the state. The final 3 polls averaged Kerry leading 48% to 47%, with the undecided voters, making up just 3%, deciding the election.^[5]

Fundraising

Bush raised $598,474.^[6] Kerry raised $766,720.^[7]

Advertising and visits

Bush visited the state 6 times, while Kerry visited the state 4 times.^[8] Each campaign spent between $100,000 to $300,000 each week.^[9]

Analysis

New Hampshire, historically considered to be a more conservative state compared to the rest of New England, had by the early 2000s become a swing state in presidential elections, having voted for Democrat Bill Clinton twice in the 1990s but narrowly choosing Republican George W. Bush in 2000. However the state began heavily trending Democratic after 2000. Bush's approval ratings were consistently below 50% in 2004.^[10] Also, polling in the state consistently showed Kerry leading, and with between 47% to 50% of the vote.^[11]

On election day, Kerry won with just over 50% of the vote, with a small margin of victory, as expected from the polls. Major factors include Bush's lower approval ratings and just 1% who voted for third party candidates, unlike 2000 when over 4% of the people voted for an independent. Kerry won 6 of the 10 counties. Most of the counties were won and lost by small margins. Kerry's key to victory was winning Cheshire County with over 59%. Bush's best performance was in Belknap County, which he won with over 55% and carrying every single town. Bush won New Hampshire's 1st congressional district, and Kerry won New Hampshire's 2nd congressional district.

Results

United States presidential election in New Hampshire, 2004
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Democratic	John Kerry	340,511	50.24%	4
	Republican	George Bush (inc.)	331,237	48.87%	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader	4,479	0.66%	0
	Write Ins		978	0.14%	0
	Libertarian (Write-in)	Michael Badnarik (Write-in)	372	0.05%	0
	Constitution (Write-in)	Michael Peroutka (Write-in)	161	0.02%	0
Totals			-	100.00%	4
Voter turnout (Voting Age Population)					69.1%

By county

County	Kerry %	Kerry #	Bush %	Bush #	Others %	Others #
Cheshire	59.1%	24,438	39.8%	16,463	1.1%	446
Grafton	55.7%	26,180	43.2%	20,277	1.1%	514
Strafford	55.6%	32,942	43.6%	25,825	0.9%	514
Sullivan	52.4%	11,434	46.5%	10,142	1.0%	228
Merrimack	52.2%	39,975	47.0%	36,060	0.8%	612
Coos	50.7%	8,585	48.1%	8,143	1.2%	197
Hillsborough	48.2%	94,121	51.0%	99,724	0.8%	1,582
Rockingham	47.5%	75,437	51.7%	82,069	0.8%	1,310
Carroll	47.2%	13,319	51.8%	14,614	1.0%	289
Belknap	43.6%	14,080	55.5%	17,920	0.9%	298

By congressional district

Bush and Kerry each won one congressional district.^[12]

District	Bush	Kerry	Representative
1st	51%	48%	Jeb Bradley (R)
2nd	47%	52%	Charles Bass (R)

Electors

Technically the voters of NH cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. NH is allocated 4 electors because it has 2 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 4 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 4 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 4 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards:^[13]

1. Jeanne Shaheen
2. Peter Burling
3. Judy Reardon
4. James Ryan

References

1. "2004 NH Democratic Tracking".
2. "2004 Primaries". CNN.
3. "2004 Primaries". CNN.
4. http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW
5. http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=33
6. http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04
7. http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04
8. "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
9. "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
10. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2004/new_hampshire_kerry_49_bush_47
11. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/nh_polls.html
12. http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/
13. http://www.sos.nh.gov/electors.htm

See also