United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2016
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The 2016 United States Senate election in New Hampshire will take place on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of New Hampshire, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primary election to select the candidates who will appear on the general election ballot will take place on September 13, 2016.[1]
Incumbent Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte is running for re-election to a second term in office.[2] If she is the Republican Vice Presidential nominee, which she has been speculated by some to be, she can appear on the ballot for both Vice President and Senate at the same time.[3]
Republican primary
Ayotte is predicted to face opposition in the primary from a Tea Party candidate. In October 2013, former New Hampshire Republican State Committee Chairman Jack Kimball said: "There is no question in my mind that she will garner a primary challenger".[3]
Candidates
Declared
- Kelly Ayotte, incumbent Senator[2]
- Jim Rubens, former State Senator, candidate for Governor in 1998 and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2014[4]
Potential
- Andrew Hemingway, businessman and candidate for Governor in 2014[5]
- Bill O'Brien, State Representative and former Speaker of the New Hampshire House of Representatives[6][7][5]
Declined
- Ovide Lamontagne, attorney, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and nominee for Governor in 1996 and 2012[8][5][9]
Endorsements
| Kelly Ayotte |
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Polling
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Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||
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Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
Potential
- Jackie Cilley, State Representative, former State Senator and candidate for Governor of New Hampshire in 2012[13]
- Dan Feltes, State Senator[13]
- Paul Hodes, former U.S. Representative and 2010 nominee[3][14]
- Chris Pappas, Executive Councilor[13]
- Stefany Shaheen, Portsmouth City Councilor and daughter of U.S. Senator Jeanne Shaheen[13]
- Donna Soucy, State Senator[13]
- Mike Vlacich, campaign manager for Senator Shaheen[13]
Declined
- Mark Connolly, former Deputy Secretary of State and Director of Securities Regulation (running for Governor)[13][15]
- John Lynch, former Governor of New Hampshire[16]
- Ann McLane Kuster, U.S. Representative (running for re-election)[17]
- Shawn O'Connor, businessman (running for NH-01)[13][18][19]
- Carol Shea-Porter, former U.S. Representative (running for NH-01)[3][20][21]
- Colin Van Ostern, Executive Councilor (running for Governor)[13][22]
Endorsements
| Maggie Hassan |
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General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[24] | Tossup | March 25, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[25] | Tossup | March 31, 2016 |
| Roll Call[26] | Tilt R | March 31, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[27] | Tossup | March 21, 2016 |
Polling
- With Ayotte
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kelly Ayotte (R) |
Maggie Hassan (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMUR/UNH | April 7–17, 2016 | 553 | ± 4.2% | 43% | 42% | — | 15% |
| WMUR/UNH | February 20–28, 2016 | 628 | ± 3.7% | 45% | 41% | 4% | 10% |
| Marist Poll | January 28, 2016 | 2,258 | ± 2.1% | 45% | 40% | — | 15% |
| Gravis Marketing | January 15–18, 2016 | 1,197 | ± 2.8% | 49% | 42% | — | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling | January 4–6, 2016 | 1,036 | ± 3% | 44% | 42% | – | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling | November 30–December 2, 2015 | 990 | ± 3.1% | 42% | 42% | – | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 16–18, 2015 | 880 | ± 3.3% | 43% | 44% | – | 13% |
| Gravis Marketing | October 5–6, 2015 | 1,035 | ± 3.1% | 52% | 42% | – | 6% |
| WMUR/UNH | September 21–October 2, 2015 | 519 | ± 4.3% | 45% | 43% | 1% | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling | August 21-24, 2015 | 841 | ± 3.4% | 44% | 43% | - | 13% |
| NBC News/Marist Poll | July, 2015 | 910 | ± 3.2% | 50% | 42% | - | 8% |
| WMUR/UNH | July 7–20, 2015 | 472 | ± 4.5% | 47% | 41% | 1% | 12% |
| The Tarrance Group | July 5-6, 2015 | 600 | ± 4% | 51% | 44% | — | 5% |
| Fabrizio, Lee and Associates | June 25-28, 2015 | 500 | ± ? | 52% | 41% | — | 7% |
| WMUR/UNH | May 6–22, 2015 | 524 | ± 4.3% | 45% | 43% | 2% | 9% |
| Gravis Marketing | April 21–22, 2015 | 1,117 | ± 3% | 51% | 43% | — | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling | April 9–13, 2015 | 747 | ± 3.6% | 45% | 46% | — | 9% |
| Gravis Marketing | March 18–19, 2015 | ? | ± ? | 47% | 45% | — | 8% |
| Public Opinion Strategies | February 17–18, 2015 | 424 | ± 4.7% | 46% | 45% | — | 9% |
| NBC News/Marist | February 3–10, 2015 | 887 | ± 3.3% | 44% | 48% | — | 7% |
| New England College | December 1, 2014 | 541 | ± 4.21% | 48.1% | 42.5% | 4.4% | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling | January 9–12, 2014 | 1,354 | ± 2.7% | 46% | 40% | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 13–16, 2013 | 1,038 | ± 3% | 45% | 44% | — | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling | April 19–21, 2013 | 933 | ± 3.2% | 44% | 46% | — | 10% |
- With Rubens
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jim Rubens (R) |
Maggie Hassan (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMUR/UNH | April 7–17, 2016 | 553 | ± 4.2% | 30% | 46% | — | 24% |
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See also
References
- ↑ "2016 Election Information". New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved April 6, 2016.
- 1 2 John DiStaso (November 7, 2014). "Ayotte, hoping Senate finally ‘gets things done,’ says she’ll seek reelection". NH Journal. Retrieved December 4, 2014.
- 1 2 3 4 Abby Livingston (October 30, 2013). "For N.H. Republicans, Pain Is Probably Temporary". Roll Call. Retrieved October 30, 2013.
- ↑ "Jim Rubens to challenge incumbent Sen. Ayotte in GOP primary". New Hampshire Union Leader. March 5, 2016. Retrieved March 7, 2016.
- 1 2 3 DiStaso, John (November 2, 2015). "Updated: O’Brien calls secret meeting to discuss primary challenge to Ayotte". WMUR. Retrieved November 2, 2015.
- ↑ Schinella, Tony (April 26, 2015). "Will O'Brien Primary Ayotte in 2016?". Concord Patch. Retrieved May 29, 2015.
- ↑ Cline, Drew (July 22, 2015). "Former Speaker Bill O'Brien says a decade in the NH House is enough". New Hampshire Union Leader. Retrieved July 23, 2015.
- ↑ Pindell, James (March 13, 2015). "In N.H., a critical US Senate race is already taking shape". The Boston Globe. Retrieved April 9, 2015.
- ↑ DiStaso, John (November 2, 2015). "Lamontagne: Ayotte ‘most conservative US Senate candidate who can win’". WMUR. Retrieved November 2, 2015.
- ↑ Arkin, James (January 8, 2016). "Bolton Endorses 16 for Re-Election to Congress". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved January 10, 2016.
- ↑ Lips, Evan (March 17, 2016). "Ayotte picks up key endorsement from former GOP foe". New Boston Post. Retrieved April 7, 2016.
- ↑ Cahn, Emily (October 5, 2015). "Maggie Hassan Will Run for Senate in New Hampshire (Video)". Roll Call. Retrieved October 5, 2015.
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 John DiStaso (November 14, 2014). "Analysis: NH Democrats already have deep bench for top races in 2016". New Hampshire Journal. Retrieved November 14, 2014.
- ↑ Kyle Trygstad (December 17, 2014). "N.H. Democrats Prep Kelly Ayotte Challenge". Roll Call. Retrieved December 18, 2014.
- ↑ Morris, Allie (October 31, 2015). "Mark Connolly, New Castle resident, announces intent to run for governor". Concord Monitor. Retrieved November 2, 2015.
- ↑ "Ayotte-Lynch race? No dice". The Telegraph. December 20, 2012. Retrieved December 4, 2014.
- ↑ Landrigan, Kevin; Steinhauser, Paul (July 15, 2015). "Kuster going for third term in US House, not a US Senate bid". NH1 News. Retrieved November 2, 2015.
- ↑ James Pindell (November 25, 2014). "Bedford Democrat quietly preparing to run for U.S. Senate against Ayotte". WMUR. Retrieved December 1, 2014.
- ↑ DiStaso, John (February 10, 2015). "Democratic political newcomer O’Connor files candidacy for 1st District U.S. House seat". NH Journal. Retrieved April 9, 2015.
- ↑ Paul Steinhauser (December 11, 2014). "Paul Steinhauser: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter talks 2016, achievements in Congress". NH1. Retrieved December 12, 2014.
- ↑ DiStaso, John. "Shea-Porter announces she’s running for US House again in 2016". WMUR.com. Manchester Hearst Properties Inc. Retrieved 20 September 2015.
- ↑ McElveen, Josh (October 8, 2015). "Democrat Colin Van Ostern running for governor". WMUR. Retrieved October 8, 2015.
- ↑ Kirsten Gillibrand (December 31, 2015). "Proud to support @TammyforIL @DonnaFEdwards @KamalaHarris @Maggie_Hassan @Ann_Kirkpatrick @CatherineForNV & @KatieMcGintyPA for Senate.". Twitter. Retrieved January 13, 2016.
- ↑ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for March 25, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 31, 2016.
- ↑ "Election Outlook: 2016 Race Ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 31, 2016.
- ↑ "2016 Race Ratings". Roll Call. Retrieved March 31, 2016.
- ↑ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 31, 2016.
External Links
- Official campaign websites
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