United States Senate election in Illinois, 2016

United States Senate election in Illinois, 2016
Illinois
November 8, 2016
 
Nominee Mark Kirk Tammy Duckworth
Party Republican Democratic

Incumbent U.S. Senator

Mark Kirk
Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in Illinois will take place on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Illinois, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican Senator Mark Kirk is running for re-election to a second term in office.[1]

Background

Republican Mark Kirk was elected to the Senate in 2010, defeating Democratic nominee Alexi Giannoulias by 59,220 votes out of more than 3.7 million votes cast.

Kirk suffered a stroke in January 2012 that kept him away from the Senate until January 2013.[2] In June 2013 he confirmed that he was "planning" to run for re-election,[3][4] but there was speculation that he might retire,[5] particularly in the wake of the departure of several of his senior staff.[6][7] One scenario that had been mooted was Kirk resigning, which would have allowed Republican Governor Bruce Rauner to appoint a replacement.[8] Potential replacements if he retired or resigned included U.S. Representatives Robert Dold, Adam Kinzinger, Aaron Schock, and Peter Roskam, State Senators Jason Barickman and Christine Radogno, hedge fund manager and founder and CEO of Citadel LLC Kenneth C. Griffin, and businesswoman Beth Christie.[5][7] In November 2014, Kirk reiterated that he was going to run for re-election.[1]

Kirk has been identified by The Washington Post, The New York Times, Politico, The Huffington Post, Slate and Roll Call as one of the most vulnerable Republican Senators up for re-election in 2016.[9][10][11][12][13][14]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Removed from ballot

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Mark
Kirk		 James
Marter		 Other Undecided
Chicago Tribune March 2–6, 2016 600 ± 4.1% 65% 22% – 12%
SIU Simon Institute February 15–20, 2016 306 ± 5.6% 53% 14% – 33%

Results

Republican primary results[34]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mark Kirk 922,012 70.6
Republican James Marter 384,519 29.4
Total votes 1,306,531 100.00

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Tammy
Duckworth		 Andrea
Zopp		 Napoleon
Harris		 Other Undecided
SIU Simon Institute February 15–20, 2016 422 ± 4.7% 52% 6% 4% — 37%
Public Policy Polling July 20–21, 2015 409 ± 4.9% 59% 10% — — 31%

Results

Democratic primary results[34]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tammy Duckworth 1,196,576 64.4%
Democratic Andrea Zopp 447,073 24.0%
Democratic Napoleon Harris 215,608 11.6%
Total votes 1,859,257 100.0

Libertarian Primary

Declared

Declined

General election

Candidates

Endorsements

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[82] Tossup March 25, 2016
Daily Kos[83] Tossup March 31, 2016
Roll Call[84] Tilt D March 31, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[85] Lean D March 21, 2016

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Mark
Kirk (R)		 Tammy
Duckworth (D)		 Other Undecided
GS Strategy Group (R-Mark Kirk) March 30–31, 2016 600 ± 4% 40% 43% — 17%
End Citizens United September 10–14, 2015 948 ± 3.2% 41% 45% — 14%
Public Policy Polling July 20–21, 2015 931 ± 3.2% 36% 42% — 22%
Ogden & Fry June 23, 2015 598 ± 4.09% 27% 44% — 29%
We Ask America December 18, 2014 1,003 ± 3% 45% 46% — 9%

References

  1. 1 2 3 "Mark Kirk: ‘No Frickin’ Way Am I Retiring’". Roll Call. November 14, 2014. Retrieved November 15, 2014.
  2. ↑ Ed O'Keefe (January 3, 2013). "Mark Kirk makes dramatic return to the Senate". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 17, 2014.
  3. ↑ Matthew Cooper (June 28, 2013). "Mark Kirk Survived a Stroke--Now He's Picking Fights in Congress". National Journal. Retrieved July 17, 2014.
  4. 1 2 3 Meredith Shiner (January 26, 2014). "Kirk's Next Challenge? Re-Election in 2016". Roll Call. Retrieved July 17, 2014.
  5. 1 2 Emily Cahn (June 12, 2013). "Illinois Options Depend on Chicago Turnover Farm Team". Roll Call. Retrieved July 17, 2014.
  6. 1 2 3 Greg Hinz (November 11, 2014). "Mark Kirk loses chief of staff, but odds grow Duckworth won't run against him". Crain's Chicago Business. Retrieved November 12, 2014.
  7. 1 2 "Will the Rauner victory prompt Kirk to step aside before 2016?". Illinois Review. November 10, 2014. Retrieved November 13, 2014.
  8. ↑ "Speculation Grows Over Mark Kirk’s Political Future". ABC Chicago. November 12, 2014. Retrieved November 13, 2014.
  9. ↑ Cillizza, Chris (November 9, 2014). "Can Republicans hold on to Senate majority in 2016? There's reason for doubt". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 11, 2014.
  10. ↑ "Tough Tests Looming in 2016 Raise Stakes for G.O.P. in Midterm Elections". The New York Times. April 12, 2014. Retrieved November 13, 2014.
  11. 1 2 "The 10 states that could decide the next Senate". Politico. November 12, 2014. Retrieved November 13, 2014.
  12. ↑ "Here's The Democratic Route Back To Senate Control In 2016". The Huffington Post. November 6, 2014. Retrieved November 13, 2014.
  13. ↑ "The Seven Senate Races Democrats Should Be Optimistic About in 2016". Slate. July 3, 2014. Retrieved November 13, 2014.
  14. 1 2 "10 Races to Watch in 2016: Illinois Senate". Roll Call. December 23, 2014. Retrieved December 26, 2014.
  15. ↑ Hinz, Greg (October 5, 2015). "Kirk picks up primary challenger from the right". Crain's Chicago Business. Retrieved October 10, 2015.
  16. ↑ Pearson, Rick; Dardick, Hal (November 30, 2015). "U.S. Senate, state's attorney's races take shape on last day of filing". Chicago Tribune. Retrieved December 1, 2015.
  17. ↑ "1 of Sen. Kirk’s GOP primary opponents doesn’t make ballot". KTVI. January 8, 2016. Retrieved January 11, 2016.
  18. ↑ "Schilling: Planned Parenthood Vote Likely to Get Mark Kirk Primaried". Illinois Review. August 7, 2015. Retrieved September 11, 2015.
  19. ↑ Wallace, Ron (October 9, 2015). "I dropped out of the race, because of a medical problem, in my family". Facebook. Retrieved October 30, 2015.
  20. ↑ "William Kelly is Back — Bashing Sen. Mark Kirk". WTAX. July 31, 2015. Retrieved September 11, 2015.
  21. ↑ "William J. Kelly: "I’m exploring a race for U.S. Senate against Mark Kirk"". The Illinois Insider. August 3, 2015. Retrieved September 11, 2015.
  22. ↑ Drusch, Andrea (August 10, 2015). "Durbin Defends Kirk". National Journal. Retrieved September 11, 2015.
  23. ↑ Drusch, Andrea (August 10, 2015). "Schilling Calls for Kirk Challenge". National Journal. Retrieved September 11, 2015.
  24. ↑ Cahn, Emily (November 14, 2014). "Mark Kirk: ‘No Frickin’ Way Am I Retiring’". Roll Call. Retrieved November 14, 2014.
  25. 1 2 3 Cheney, Kyle (December 29, 2014). "16 in '16: The new battle for the Senate". Politico. Retrieved December 29, 2014.
  26. ↑ Riopell, Mike (February 16, 2015) - "Joe Walsh Eyes Challenge to U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk". Daily Herald. Retrieved February 17, 2015.
  27. ↑ Sweet, Lynn (February 17, 2015) - "Former Rep. Joe Walsh 'Looking At' Bid to Oust Sen. Mark Kirk". Chicago Sun-Times. Retrieved February 21, 2015.
  28. ↑ Riopell, Mike (November 30, 2015). "Who's in, who's out in congressional primaries". Daily Herald. Retrieved December 1, 2015.
  29. 1 2 Hobe, Marty (January 18, 2016). "Marter gains Tea Party support". The Register-Mail. Retrieved January 22, 2016.
  30. ↑ Riopell, Mike (December 15, 2015). "Lake sheriff backs Kirk opponent for U.S. Senate". Daily Herald. Retrieved January 22, 2016.
  31. ↑ "Returning from D.C. Trip, Marter Pushes Ahead to Challenge Kirk for U.S. Senate". Illinois Review. January 22, 2016. Retrieved January 22, 2016.
  32. ↑ "ALIPAC Endorses James Marter for US Senate Against Amnesty Supporter Mark Kirk (R-IL)". Marter for Senate. January 14, 2016. Retrieved January 22, 2016.
  33. ↑ "Chicago Ward GOP Org Censures Kirk; Endorses GOP Challenger James Marter". Illinois Review. December 16, 2015. Retrieved January 22, 2016.
  34. 1 2 "2016 Illinois Primary Election Results". WBEZ 91.5 Chicago. March 15, 2016. Retrieved March 18, 2016.
  35. 1 2 Meredith Shiner (January 27, 2014). "Kirk Vs. Duckworth for Senate in 2016?". Roll Call. Retrieved July 17, 2014.
  36. 1 2 Skiba, Katherine (February 12, 2015) - "4 U.S. House Democrats From Illinois Consider a Challenge to Sen. Mark Kirk". Chicago Tribune. Retrieved February 23, 2015.
  37. ↑ Lynn Sweet (March 27, 2015). "Rep. Tammy Duckworth to announce for Senate, likely on Monday". Chicago Sun Times. Retrieved March 28, 2015.
  38. 1 2 Skiba, Katherine (March 30, 2015). "Duckworth to Challenge Kirk for U.S. Senate". Chicago Tribune. Retrieved March 30, 2015.
  39. ↑ Miller, Rich (January 30, 2015). "Are a policy wonk and a former NFL player ready for 2016?". Crain's Chicago Business. Retrieved February 1, 2015.
  40. ↑ Hinz, Greg (October 27, 2015). "State Sen. Napoleon Harris to enter race against Mark Kirk". Crain's Chicago Business. Retrieved October 30, 2015.
  41. ↑ Ahern, Mary Ann (May 15, 2015). "Andrea Zopp Decides To Run For Kirk's Senate Seat". WMAQ-TV. Retrieved May 15, 2015.
  42. ↑ "5/28-Andrea L. Zopp Ends Dynamic Tenure at Chicago Urban League". Chicago Urban League. Chicago Urban League. Retrieved 30 July 2015.
  43. ↑ Erin Carlson (June 6, 2014). "Tio Hardiman, Ex-Candidate for Illinois Governor, Teases a U.S. Senate Run". NBC Chicago. Retrieved July 17, 2014.
  44. ↑ "Ex-CeaseFire director Tio Hardiman running for Congress". WGN-TV. August 4, 2015. Retrieved August 5, 2015.
  45. ↑ Parish, Norman (October 15, 2015). "Activist Tio Hardiman Plans to Seek Circuit Court Clerk’s Office instead of Congress". The Chicago Citizen. Retrieved December 22, 2015.
  46. ↑ "Meet Dr. Robert Marshall, U.S. Senate Candidate". WYMG. August 21, 2015. Retrieved September 11, 2015.
  47. ↑ Riopell, Mike (November 23, 2015). "Primary contests for Congress take shape. Who's running?". Daily Herald. Retrieved December 1, 2015.
  48. ↑ Paul Merrion (November 2014). "40 under 40". Crain's Chicago Business. Retrieved January 14, 2015.
  49. ↑ Pearson, Rick (16 July 2015). "Democratic Sen. Biss with $1.2 million to run for state comptroller". Chicago Tribune (Tribune Publishing). Retrieved 30 July 2015.
  50. ↑ Sneed, Michael (August 4, 2015). "Sneed exclusive: Commissioner Boykin eyes Senate run". Chicago Sun-Times. Retrieved August 5, 2015.
  51. ↑ Dardick, Hal; Pearson, Rick (September 9, 2015). "Cook County commissioner opts against Democratic U.S. Senate run". Chicago Tribune. Retrieved September 11, 2015.
  52. ↑ Sneed, Michael (May 21, 2015). "Sneed exclusive: Hillary's lunch date". Chicago Sun-Times. Retrieved June 3, 2015.
  53. 1 2 Blake, Aaron (April 10, 2015). "Rep. Bill Foster (D-Ill.), who had been "seriously considering" an #ILSEN bid, endorses Tammy Duckworth". Twitter. Retrieved April 10, 2015.
  54. ↑ Pearson, Rick (April 10, 2015). "Foster Won't Run for U.S. Senate, Backs Duckworth". Chicago Tribune. Retrieved April 10, 2015.
  55. ↑ Sweet, Lynn (June 12, 2015). "Rep. Robin Kelly will not run for Illinois Senate seat: Exclusive". Chicago Sun-Times. Retrieved June 12, 2015.
  56. ↑ Lynn Sweet (June 24, 2014). "Michelle Obama nixes politics: Illinois Senate not in her future". Chicago Sun-Times. Retrieved July 31, 2014.
  57. ↑ Lynn Sweet (January 24, 2015). "Duckworth, Foster, Bustos & Kelly all mull challenges to Sen. Mark Kirk". Chicago Sun-Times. Retrieved January 24, 2015.
  58. 1 2 Schlikerman, Becky (August 20, 2015). "Sen. Raoul: Zopp more qualified for Senate than Obama was". Chicago Sun-Times. Retrieved August 24, 2015.
  59. 1 2 Jacobs, Julia (August 4, 2015). "Evanston Democrats show support for Tammy Duckworth’s U.S. Senate bid in straw poll". The Daily Northwestern. Retrieved August 25, 2015.
  60. ↑ Eleanor Clift (March 30, 2013). "Could Michelle Obama Run for the US Senate". The Daily Beast. Retrieved July 17, 2014.
  61. ↑ Hancock, Amanda (September 8, 2015). "Sheila Simon announces bid for Illinois State Senate". The Southern Illinoisan. Retrieved September 11, 2015.
  62. 1 2 3 Schuba, Tom (February 11, 2016). "Ward Room's Race to Watch: Illinois Senate". WMAQ-TV. Retrieved February 12, 2016.
  63. ↑ Riopell, Mike (January 22, 2016). "Jesse Jackson to back Zopp for Senate over Duckworth, Harris". Daily Herald. Retrieved February 12, 2016.
  64. ↑ KaiElz. "The Chicago Defender Endorses Andrea Zopp for U.S. Senate". chicagodefender.com. Chicago Defender. Retrieved March 14, 2016.
  65. ↑ "Chicago Sun-Times Editorial Board 2016 primary election questionnaires". www.susntimescandidates.com. Chicago Sun-Times. Retrieved February 28, 2016.
  66. ↑ "Chris Michel is the Libertarian candidate for IL Sec. of State". Rebootillinois.com. 2014-10-24. Retrieved 2016-03-14.
  67. ↑ "Interview with Libertarian Senate Candidate Chris Michel". Illinoisherald.com. 2016-01-25. Retrieved 2016-03-14.
  68. ↑ "Libertarian Party of IL State Convention recap". Illinoisherald.com. 2015-08-16. Retrieved 2016-03-14.
  69. ↑ "WILLIAM J. KELLY: “I’m exploring a race for U.S. Senate against Mark Kirk” –". Theillinoisinsider.com. 2015-08-03. Retrieved 2016-03-14.
  70. ↑ Arkin, James (January 8, 2016). "Bolton Endorses 16 for Re-Election to Congress". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved January 10, 2016.
  71. 1 2 "Editorial board questionnaires". www.chicagotribune.com. Chicago Tribune. Retrieved February 27, 2016.
  72. ↑ "Chicago Tribune's U.S. Senate endorsement: Mark Kirk for the Republicans". Chicago Tribune. Retrieved 2016-03-14.
  73. ↑ http://www.slate.com/blogs/outward/2016/03/22/hrc_endorses_mark_kirk_over_tammy_duckworth.html<
  74. ↑ Sweet, Lynn (June 4, 2015). "Sen. Durbin endorses Rep. Duckworth's Senate bid". Chicago Sun-Times. Retrieved June 5, 2015.
  75. ↑ Kirsten Gillibrand (December 31, 2015). "Proud to support @TammyforIL @DonnaFEdwards @KamalaHarris @Maggie_Hassan @Ann_Kirkpatrick @CatherineForNV & @KatieMcGintyPA for Senate.". Twitter. Retrieved January 13, 2016.
  76. 1 2 3 4 Pearson, Rick (July 9, 2015). "Rep. Tammy Duckworth gets boost from national Senate Democratic endorsement". Chicago Tribune. Retrieved February 12, 2016.
  77. ↑ Pearson, Rick (September 30, 2015). "Major union group backs Duckworth over Zopp for U.S. Senate". Chicago Tribune. Retrieved October 11, 2015.
  78. ↑ "Morning Spin: Duckworth snags teachers union endorsement in U.S. Senate race". Chicago Tribune. February 1, 2016. Retrieved February 12, 2016.
  79. ↑ Sweet, Lynn (April 30, 2015). "EMILY's List endorses Duckworth; not waiting for Kelly, Zopp". Chicago Sun-Times. Retrieved April 30, 2015.
  80. ↑ Matishak, Martin (April 8, 2015). "VoteVets gets into the 2016 race early". The Hill. Retrieved April 17, 2015.
  81. ↑ "Chicago Tribune's U.S. Senate endorsement: Tammy Duckworth for the Democrats". Chicago Tribune. Retrieved 2016-03-14.
  82. ↑ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for March 25, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 31, 2016.
  83. ↑ "Election Outlook: 2016 Race Ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 31, 2016.
  84. ↑ "2016 Race Ratings". Roll Call. Retrieved March 31, 2016.
  85. ↑ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 31, 2016.

External links

Official campaign websites
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