United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2016

United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2016

November 8, 2016

Nominee Pat Toomey Katie McGinty Party Republican Democratic

Incumbent U.S. Senator Pat Toomey Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania will take place on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Pennsylvania, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in numerous other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican Senator Pat Toomey is running for re-election to a second term in office.

Background

Five-term Senator Arlen Specter, a moderate Republican, switched to the Democratic Party in April 2009, running for re-election in 2010 as such. He was defeated in the Democratic primary by U.S. Representative and former U.S. Navy three-star admiral Joe Sestak. After a close race, Sestak lost the general election to former U.S. Representative Pat Toomey by 51% to 49%, a margin of 80,229 votes out of almost 4 million cast.

After the Republicans took control of the Senate following the 2014 Senate elections, the election in Pennsylvania is seen by many as a top target for the Democrats, who hope to regain their majority.^[1][2][3]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Pat Toomey, incumbent Senator^[4]

Did Not File

• Everett Stern, security intelligence consultant, HSBC whistleblower and candidate for Pennsylvania's 13th congressional district in 2014^[5]

Endorsements

Pat Toomey
Individuals John R. Bolton, former United States Ambassador to the United Nations[6] Organizations Club for Growth[7]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• John Fetterman, Mayor of Braddock^[8]
• Kathleen McGinty, former Chief of Staff to Governor Tom Wolf, former Secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection and candidate for Governor in 2014^[9][10][11] - primary winner^[12]
• Joe Sestak, Retired Navy Admiral, former U.S. Representative and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010^[13][14][15]
• Joseph Vodvarka, small business owner and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and 2012^[8][16][17]

Did Not File

• Ed Pawlowski, Mayor of Allentown and candidate for Governor in 2014^[18][19]

Declined

• Bob Brady, U.S. Representative and Chairman of the Philadelphia Democratic City Committee (endorsed Katie McGinty)^[20]
• Chris Carney, former U.S. Representative^[21]
• Matt Cartwright, U.S. Representative (endorsed Joe Sestak)^[22]
• Kathy Dahlkemper, Erie County Executive and former U.S. Representative (endorsed Katie McGinty)^[23]
• Eugene DePasquale, Pennsylvania Auditor General (running for re-election)^[24][25]
• Rich Fitzgerald, Allegheny County Executive (endorsed Katie McGinty)^[23][26]
• David Hickton, United States Attorney for the Western District of Pennsylvania^[27]
• Vincent Hughes, State Senator (endorsed Katie McGinty)^[28][29][30]
• Kathleen Kane, Pennsylvania Attorney General^{[9][31][32][33]}
• Rob McCord, former Pennsylvania Treasurer and candidate for Governor in 2014^[34]
• Patrick Murphy, former U.S. Representative and candidate for Attorney General in 2012^[20][35]
• Michael Nutter, Mayor of Philadelphia (endorsed Katie McGinty)^[36][37]
• Ed Rendell, former Governor of Pennsylvania (endorsed Katie McGinty)^[38][39]
• Allyson Schwartz, former U.S. Representative and candidate for Governor in 2014^[22]
• Josh Shapiro, Chairman of the Montgomery County Board of Commissioners and former State Representative (running for PA Attorney General)^[40][41][42]
• Joe Torsella, United States Representative to the United Nations for Management and Reform and former Chairman of the Pennsylvania State Board of Education (running for state treasurer)^[43][44]
• R. Seth Williams, District Attorney of Philadelphia^[23]

Endorsements

John Fetterman
Individuals Barbara Hafer, former Treasurer of Pennsylvania[45] Martin O'Malley, former Governor of Maryland[46] Organizations Pittsburgh NORML[47] Newspapers The Patriot-News[48]

Katie McGinty

Presidents Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States[49] Vice Presidents Joe Biden, 47th Vice President of the United States[49] U.S. Senators Bob Casey, Jr., United States Senator from Pennsylvania[50] Dianne Feinstein, United States Senator from California[51] Al Franken, United States Senator from Minnesota [52] Kirsten Gillibrand, United States Senator from New York[53] Martin Heinrich, United States Senator from New Mexico[54] Mazie Hirono, United States Senator from Hawaii[55] Patrick Leahy, United States Senator from Vermont[56] Jeff Merkley, United States Senator from Oregon[57] Claire McCaskill, United States Senator from Missouri[58] Chris Murphy, United States Senator from Connecticut[59] Patty Murray, United States Senator from Washington[60] Gary Peters, United States Senator from Michigan[61] Harry Reid, United States Senator from Nevada and Democratic Leader of the United States Senate[62] Brian Schatz, United States Senator from Hawaii[63] Jeanne Shaheen, United States Senator from New Hampshire[64] Jon Tester, United States Senator from Montana[65] Mark Warner United States Senator from Virginia[66] Sheldon Whitehouse, United States Senator from Rhode Island[67] Governors Ed Rendell, 45th Governor of Pennsylvania[68] Tom Wolf, 47th and current Governor of Pennsylvania[69] U.S. Representatives Bob Brady, U.S. Representative and Chairman of the Philadelphia Democratic City Committee[20] Michael F. Doyle, U.S. Representative[70] State legislators Ryan Bizzarro, State Representative[71] Jim Brewster, State Senator[72] Dom Costa, State Representative[72] Jay Costa, State Senator and Democratic Leader of the Pennsylvania Senate[72] Paul Costa, State Representative[72] Dan Deasy, State Representative[72] Anthony M. DeLuca, State Representative[72] Frank Dermody, State Representative and Democratic Leader of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives[72] Florindo Fabrizio. State Representative[71] Wayne D. Fontana, State Senator[72] Dan Frankel, State Representative[72] Ed Gainey, State Representative[72] Mark Gergely, State Representative[72] Patrick Harkins, State Representative[71] Vincent Hughes, State Senator[73] Bill Kortz, State Representative[72] Joe Markosek, State Representative[72] Mayors and other municipal leaders Cindy Bass, Philadelphia City Councilwoman[74] Jannie Blackwell, Philadelphia City Councilwoman[74] Kim Bracey, Mayor of York[75] Alan Butkovitz, Philadelphia City Controller[37] Darrell Clarke, Philadelphia City Council President[37] Carolyn Comitta, Mayor of West Chester[75] William Courtright, Mayor of Scranton[75] Kathy Dahlkemper, Erie County Executive and former U.S. Representative[71] John DeFazio, Allegheny County Councilman[72] Bob Donchez, Mayor of Bethlehem[75] Mike Finnerty, Allegheny County Councilman[72] Rich Fitzgerald, Allegheny County Executive[72] Nick Futules, Allegheny County Councilman[72] Dan Gilman, Pittsburgh City Councilman[72] Elizabeth Goreham, Mayor of State College[75] Rick Gray, Mayor of Lancaster[75] Sandra Green, Mayor of Kutztown[75] William Greenlee, Philadelphia City Councilman At-Large[74] Bobby Henon, Philadelphia City Councilman[74] Frank Janakovic, Mayor of Johnstown[75] Curtis Jones, Jr., Philadelphia City Councilman[74] Theresa Kail-Smith, Pittsburgh City Councilwoman[72] Bruce Kraus, Pittsburgh City Council President[72] Daniel Lavelle, Pittsburgh City Councilman[72] Thomas Leighton, Mayor of Wilkes-Barre[75] Bob Macey, Allegheny County Councilman[72] Chuck Martoni, Allegheny County Councilman[72] Josh Maxwell, Mayor of Downingtown[75] James Muldowney, Mayor of Pottsville[75] Michael Nutter, Mayor of Philadelphia[37] Corey O'Connor, Pittsburgh City Councilman[72] John F. Palmiere, Allegheny County Councilman[72] Sal Panto Jr., Mayor of Easton[75] Bill Peduto, Mayor of Pittsburgh[70] Blondell Reynolds Brown, Philadelphia City Councilwoman At-Large[74] Natalia Rudiak, Pittsburgh City Councilwoman[72] Mark Squilla, Philadelphia City Councilman[74] Individuals Bill Cole, Erie County Democratic Committee Chairman[71] Austin Davis, Allegheny County Democratic Committee Vice Chairman[72] Johnny Dougherty, Philadelphia Labor Leader[76] Ellen Malcolm, Author and Founder of EMILY's List[77] Nancy Mills, Allegheny County Democratic Committee Chairwoman[72] Stephanie Schriock, President of EMILY's List[78] Labor unions AFL-CIO[79] AFSCME[80] Amalgamated Transit Union[81] Amalgamated Transit Union Local 85[82] American Federation of Teachers (AFT)[83] Boilermakers Trade Union[84] International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW)[85] International Alliance of Theatrical and Stage Employees Local 8[86] International Union of Operating Engineers Local 542[87] Laborers' District Council of Western PA[84] Pennsylvania Association of Staff Nurses and Allied Professionals[88] Pennsylvania State Building and Construction Trades Council[89] Pennsylvania State Education Association[90] Philadelphia Building and Construction Trades Council[76] Pittsburgh Firefighters IAFF Local 1[91] Service Employees International Union (SEIU)[92] Sheet Metal Workers Local 19[93] United Food and Commercial Workers Union Local 1776[94] United Steelworkers (USW)[95] Organizations Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC)[96] EMILY's List[97] Equality Pennsylvania[98] League of Conservation Voters Action Fund[99] Liberty City LGBT Democratic Club[100] Ocean Champions[101] Penn Democrats[48] Philadelphia Democratic City Committee[102] Steel City Stonewall Democrats[103] United Ward Leaders of Color[104] Newspapers Beaver County Times[105] New Pittsburgh Courier[106] Philadelphia Daily News[107] Philadelphia Gay News[108] Wilkes-Barre Times Leader[109]

Joe Sestak
Individuals Matt Cartwright, U.S. Representative[110] Manan Trivedi, nominee for PA-06 in 2010, 2012 and 2014[111] Organizations Delaware County Democrats[48] Council for a Livable World[112] VoteVets.org[113] Newspapers Philadelphia Inquirer[114] Philadelphia Tribune[48] Pittsburgh Post-Gazette[115]

Debates

A debate hosted by Carnegie Mellon University's Heinz College in association with the 14th Ward Independent Democratic Club featuring John Fetterman, Katie McGinty, and Joe Sestak occurred on January 31 at Rangos Hall in Jared L. Cohon University Center, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA.

• Complete video of debate, YouTube, January 31, 2016

A debate hosted by Keystone Progress featuring John Fetterman, Katie McGinty, and Joe Sestak occurred on February 19 at the Hilton Harrisburg, in the Harrisburg Ballroom, Harrisburg, PA.

• Complete video of debate, YouTube, February 19, 2016

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Joe Vodvarka	John Fetterman	Katie McGinty	Joe Sestak	Other	Undecided
Fox 29/Opinion Savvy	April 24–25, 2016	942	± 3.2%	–	14%	39%	34%	–	13%
Harper Polling	April 21–23, 2016	641	± 3.9%	3%	15%	39%	33%	–	11%
Monmouth University	April 17–19, 2016	302	± 5.6%	–	4%	39%	39%	–	18%
Franklin & Marshall College	April 11–18, 2016	510	± 5.3%	–	8%	27%	38%	2%	25%
Harper Polling	April 3–4, 2016	603	± 4.0%	–	9%	31%	41%	–	19%
Franklin & Marshall College	March 14–20, 2016	408	± 4.7%	–	7%	14%	31%	2%	46%
Harper Polling	March 1–2, 2016	662	± 3.6%	4%	15%	17%	33%	–	35%
Harper Polling	January 22–23, 2016	640	± 3.8%	–	11%	28%	33%	–	28%
Public Policy Polling	October 8–11, 2015	1,012	± 3.1%	–	14%	22%	29%	–	35%
Franklin & Marshall College	August 17–24, 2015	298	± ?	–	–	13%	16%	5%	66%

Results

2016 United States Senate Democratic primary in Pennsylvania results

  McGinty — 50–60%

  McGinty — 40–50%

  McGinty — <40%

  Sestak — <40%

  Sestak — 40–50%

  Sestak — 60–70%

  Fetterman — 40–50%

2016 United States Senate Democratic primary in Pennsylvania results[116]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Katie McGinty	647,265	43.09
	Democratic	Joe Sestak	496,760	33.07
	Democratic	John Fetterman	294,464	19.60
	Democratic	Joseph Vodvarka	63,589	4.23
Total votes			1,502,078	98.87

General election

Candidates

• Pat Toomey (R), incumbent
• Katie McGinty (D), former Chief of Staff to Governor Tom Wolf, former Secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection and candidate for Governor in 2014

Predictions

Source	Ranking
The Cook Political Report[117]	Tossup
Daily Kos[118]	Lean R
Roll Call[119]	Tilt R
Sabato's Crystal Ball[120]	Tossup

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Pat Toomey (R)	Katie McGinty (D)	Other	Undecided
Quinnipiac University	March 30–April 4, 2016	1,737	± 2.4%	47%	38%	1%	12%
Mercyhurst University	March 1–11, 2016	421	± 4.8%	47%	34%	2%	13%
Harper Polling	March 1–2, 2016	662	± 3.75%	47%	39%	—	13%
Public Policy Polling	October 8–11, 2015	1,012	± -3.1	43%	36%	—	21%
Quinnipiac University	September 25-October 5, 2015	1,049	± 3.0%	51%	31%	1%	15%
Harper Polling	September 9–10, 2015	700	± 3.7%	48%	34%	—	18%
Franklin & Marshall College	August 17–24, 2015	605	± 3.9%	35%	28%	—	38%
Quinnipiac University	August 7–18, 2015	1,085	± 3%	48%	32%	1%	17%
Public Policy Polling	May 30 – June 1, 2014	835	± 3.4%	42%	38%	—	20%

See also

• United States Senate elections, 2016

References

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111. Smith, Abby (April 16, 2015). "PA-Sen: Sestak Earns Support of Trivedi". PoliticsPA. Retrieved April 17, 2015.
112. "Council for a Livable World Announces Early Endorsement of Joe Sestak". Retrieved December 14, 2013.
113. "VoteVets PAC Endorses Sestak for Senate". VoteVets.org. March 4, 2015. Retrieved April 17, 2015.
114. Template:City web
115. Template:City web
116. 2016 Presidential Primary
117. "Senate: Race Ratings". Cookpolitical.com. 2016-03-25. Retrieved 2016-04-02.
118. Nir, David (2015-09-16). "Daily Kos Elections Senate race ratings: Initial ratings for 2015-16". Dailykos.com. Retrieved 2016-04-02.
119. "2016 Race Ratings". Roll Call. Roll Call. Retrieved April 27, 2015.
120. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2016 Senate". Centerforpolitics.org. 2016-04-07. Retrieved 2016-04-07.

External links

Official campaign websites

• John Fetterman for Senate
• Katie McGinty for Senate
• Joe Sestak for Senate
• Everett Stern for Senate
• Pat Toomey for Senate
• Joseph Vodvarka for Senate