United States Senate election in Arizona, 2016

United States Senate election in Arizona, 2016
Arizona
November 8, 2016
 
Party Republican Democratic

Incumbent U.S. Senator

John McCain
Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in Arizona will take place on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Arizona, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primary election will take place on August 30, 2016.[1]

Incumbent Republican Senator John McCain is running for re-election to a sixth term in office. After hinting in September 2013 that he could retire,[2] he subsequently said that the chances he would run again were "pretty good", but his campaign had emphasised that he had not made a decision yet.[3] On April 7, 2015, McCain announced that he would run for re-election.[4] McCain is expected to face strong primary opposition from the Tea Party. The primaries will be held on August 30.[5][6]

Republican primary

John McCain, the 2008 Republican presidential nominee, was re-elected to a fifth term with 59.3% of the vote in 2010. In 2016, he will be 80 years old and in September 2013, he hinted that he may retire, saying that "[President Obama's] in his last term, I'm probably in mine." When asked if that meant he wouldn't run for re-election, he said "I don't know. I was trying to make a point. I have to decide in about two years so I don't have to make a decision [now]. I don't want to be one of these old guys that should've shoved off."[2] He then said in October 2013 that he was "seriously thinking" about running for re-election.[7] By April 2014 he had held his first fundraiser[8] and acknowledged that "elements on the right" would like to primary him, which he said was "fine with me... you know me: a fight not joined is a fight not enjoyed... I know that I will be very well-prepared." Jennifer Duffy of The Cook Political Report noted that McCain did not fit the profile of a "complacent, long-serving incumbent", saying: "It's not an easy thing to take him on. He is going to be well-prepared, and he has a well-earned reputation for running really tough campaigns. He raises a lot of money and he puts together a good organization."[9]

In September 2014, McCain began having "serious conversations" with state Republicans, local officials and key supporters about running for re-election. Though he faced a primary challenge in 2010 from former Congressman J. D. Hayworth, Hayworth was a flawed opponent and ran a weak campaign; McCain massively outspent and easily defeated him. However, he could face a stronger challenge in 2016.[5] A survey by Public Policy Polling in March 2014 found that McCain was the most unpopular Senator in the country, with 30% of Arizonans approving of him to 54% who disapproved. His unpopularity was bipartisan, with his approvals at 35%–55% with Republicans, 29%–53% with Democrats and 25%–55% with independents.[10] An April 2014 survey by The Polling Company for Citizens United Political Victory Fund found that 64.2% of Republican primary voters favored "a new person" to 29.3% who thought that "Senator McCain deserves to be re-elected to another six-year term." It also found him trailing in match-ups with a generic primary opponent and against specific opponents (see below).[11]

Further compounding matters for McCain is his relationship with the Arizona Republican Party.[5] After his re-election in 2010, McCain adopted more orthodox conservative stances and attitudes and largely opposed actions of the Obama administration. By 2013, however, he had become a key figure in the Senate for negotiating deals on certain issues in an otherwise partisan environment. By early 2014, McCain's apostasies were enough that the Arizona Republican Party formally censured him for having what they saw as a liberal record that had been "disastrous and harmful". The action had no practical effect but showed that McCain's history of being criticized at the state level as insufficiently conservative was still ongoing.[12] Tea Party leaders have said that they are "sick to death" of McCain and will oppose him if he seeks re-election,[5] with one prominent critic of McCain saying that Arizona conservatives were preparing for a "civil war".[6] However, McCain still has a large warchest - $1.7 million as of June 2014 - and would be helped by Arizona state law, which allows independents to vote in the Republican primary.[5]

By early October 2014, McCain was telling reporters that the odds of him running for re-election were "pretty good", saying that whether or not Republicans retake control of the Senate in the 2014 elections would be a factor in his decision-making, "but it certainly wouldn't be the deciding factor."[6] In late October, it was revealed that McCain had scheduled a meeting with supporters two days after the 2014 midterm elections to "discuss my thoughts on my own re-election in 2016."[3] At that meeting, following the Republican takeover of the Senate, he said that he was "seriously considering" and "leaning towards" running for re-election and will make an announcement in early 2015.[13]

In December 2014, Politico reported that McCain and his allies were waging an "aggressive and systematic campaign" to purge the Arizona Republican Party's apparatus of Tea Party and far-right conservatives who hold "obscure, but influential, local party offices" and replace them with McCain loyalists.[14][15] The Super PAC "Arizona Grassroots Action" was created, which raised almost $300,000 and supported McCain-allied candidates with mailers and automated phone calls, bringing attention to what were previously low-profile and uncontested races.[14] Before August 26, when elections for party offices were held, almost all of the 3,925 precinct committeemen (who vote for local party chairmen, who in turn make decisions on how the party will spend state and local funds, which candidates receive endorsements or funding etc.) were opposed to McCain. After the elections, 1,531 (39%) were regarded as supportive of McCain.[14] Most notably, Timothy Schwartz, who authored the resolution which censured McCain, was ousted.[14][16] Schwartz attacked McCain for using his "prominence and money and influence" to "ramrod" his critics and former Maricopa County Republican Party Chairman A.J. LaFaro said that McCain was "vindictive" and engaging in the equivalent of "ethnic cleansing".[14]

Tea Party Congressmen Matt Salmon and David Schweikert are widely regarded as two of the most serious potential challengers to McCain. The pair, who are close friends, have agreed that if one of them decides to run against McCain, the other will not do so, to ensure that the anti-McCain vote isn't split between them.[17] Schweikert has acknowledged that he polled the race in 2014 but is considered the less likely of the two to run – he has much less cash-on-hand than Salmon and has admitted that his wife is "not thrilled" at the idea of him running for the Senate.[17] Salmon has since stated that he will not challenge McCain in the primary.[18]

In early February, McCain said that he was "most likely" running for re-election[19] and Club for Growth President David McIntosh said that the organization would "watch closely" the primary race, particularly if Salmon or Schweikert ran, and would "do research and polling and determine if there's a path to victory [against McCain]."[20] Towards the end of February, Salmon and Schweikert began to distance themselves from the race,[21][22] with State Senator Kelli Ward revealing that she was considering a run.[23]

McCain officially announced on April 7, 2015, that he was running for re-election.[4]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Potential

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 John
McCain		 Kelli
Ward		 Clair
Van
Steenwyk		 Alex
Meluskey		 David
Pizer		 Other Undecided
Behavior Research Center January 6–17, 2016 398 ± 4.1% 47% 11% 1% 1% 1% — 39%
Behavior Research Center November 7–10, 2015 300 ± 4.7% 41% 11% — — — — 45%
Gravis Marketing August 15–18, 2015 844 ± 3.4% 36% 45% — — — — 20%
Public Policy Polling May 1–3, 2015 300 ± 5.7% 44% 31% — — — — 25%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Potential

Endorsements

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[57] Likely R March 25, 2016
Daily Kos[58] Lean R April 2, 2016
Roll Call[59] Likely R April 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[60] Lean R March 21, 2016

Polling

With McCain
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 John
McCain (R)		 Richard
Carmona (D)		 Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 1–3, 2015 600 ± 4% 40% 34% — 25%
Public Policy Polling February 28–March 2, 2014 870 ± 3.3% 35% 41% — 24%
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 John
McCain (R)		 Fred
DuVal (D)		 Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 1–3, 2015 600 ± 4% 40% 36% — 24%
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 John
McCain (R)		 Gabrielle
Giffords (D)		 Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 28–March 2, 2014 870 ± 3.3% 35% 42% — 23%
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 John
McCain (R)		 Ann
Kirkpatrick (D)		 Other Undecided
Behavior Research Center April 4–11, 2016 564 ±4.2 42% 42% — 16%
The Merrill Poll March 7–11, 2016 701 ± 3.7% 41% 40% 3% 16%
Behavior Research Center January 6–17, 2016 590 ± 4.1% 38% 37% — 25%
Strategies 360 December 4–9, 2015 504 ± 4.4% 51% 36% — 13%
Behavior Research Center October 24–November 5, 2015 577 ± 3.8% 37% 31% — 32%
Gravis Marketing August 13–16, 2015 1,433 ± 2.6% 48% 35% — 17%
Public Policy Polling May 1–3, 2015 600 ± 4% 42% 36% — 23%
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 John
McCain (R)		 Janet
Napolitano (D)		 Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 28–March 2, 2014 870 ± 3.3% 44% 36% — 19%
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 John
McCain (R)		 Kyrsten
Sinema (D)		 Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 1–3, 2015 600 ± 4% 42% 36% — 22%
With Jones
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Christine
Jones (R)		 Richard
Carmona (D)		 Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 1–3, 2015 600 ± 4% 36% 42% — 22%
With Ward
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Kelli
Ward (R)		 Ann
Kirkpatrick (D)		 Other Undecided
Gravis Marketing August 13–16, 2015 1,433 ± 2.6% 43% 38% — 19%
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Kelli
Ward (R)		 Richard
Carmona (D)		 Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 1–3, 2015 600 ± 4% 36% 39% — 26%

References

  1. ↑ "Elections Calendar & Upcoming Events". AZSOS.gov. Retrieved March 18, 2015.
  2. 1 2 Trujillo, Mario (September 13, 2013). "McCain hints at retirement in 2016". The Hill. Retrieved September 14, 2013.
  3. 1 2 "McCain to huddle with supporters on 2016 re-election". AZCentral.com. October 20, 2014. Retrieved October 24, 2014.
  4. 1 2 3 "John McCain to run for sixth term in 2016". USA Today. April 7, 2015. Retrieved April 7, 2015.
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "McCain gets ready for race of his life". The Hill. September 25, 2014. Retrieved October 1, 2014.
  6. 1 2 3 "A state GOP 'civil war' over McCain's re-election bid?". AZCentral.com. October 13, 2014. Retrieved October 24, 2014.
  7. ↑ Blake, Aaron (October 22, 2013). "McCain considering seeking reelection in 2016". Washingtonpost.com. Retrieved October 22, 2013.
  8. ↑ Catalina Camia (October 20, 2014). "McCain set to meet with supporters on 2016 Senate race". USA Today. Retrieved October 24, 2014.
  9. ↑ Dan Nowicki (April 19, 2014). "McCain preparing for 2016 GOP primary battle". AZCentral.com. Retrieved October 24, 2014.
  10. ↑ "McCain has worst poll numbers in the country" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. March 5, 2014. Retrieved October 1, 2014.
  11. ↑ "CUPVF Statewide Survey Among 600 AZ GOP Likely Primary Voters for 2016 U.S. Senate - Polling Memo". Citizens United Political Victory Fund. April 14, 2014. Retrieved October 1, 2014.
  12. ↑ Sanchez, Yvonne Wingett. "Arizona GOP censures McCain for 'disastrous' record", The Arizona Republic (January 25, 2014). Retrieved January 26, 2014.
  13. ↑ "McCain is 'leaning towards' a 2016 re-election bid". AZ Central. November 6, 2014. Retrieved November 11, 2014.
  14. 1 2 3 4 5 "McCain's big purge". Politico. December 30, 2014. Retrieved December 31, 2014.
  15. ↑ "McCain’s team quietly purging Arizona GOP of tea-party foes before 2016 reelection bid". Hot Air. December 30, 2014. Retrieved December 31, 2014.
  16. ↑ "McCain censure resolution author ousted from GOP post". AZ Central. December 8, 2014. Retrieved December 31, 2014.
  17. 1 2 "Tea Party lawmakers may take on McCain". The Hill. January 28, 2015. Retrieved January 29, 2015.
  18. 1 2 Wong, Scott (September 29, 2015). "Salmon tells McCain: I won't primary you". The Hill. Retrieved September 30, 2015.
  19. ↑ Manu Raju (February 3, 2015). "McCain says he's "most likely" running for reelection next year". Twitter. Retrieved February 4, 2015.
  20. ↑ Alex Roarty (February 3, 2015). "New Club for Growth President Singles Out John McCain for Potential Primary Challenge". National Journal. Retrieved February 4, 2015.
  21. ↑ Dan Nowicki (February 14, 2015). "Salmon distances himself from 'deceitful' PAC". AZ Central. Retrieved May 17, 2015.
  22. ↑ Dan Nowicki (February 21, 2015). "Schweikert: My wife says no to Senate campaign". AZ Central. Retrieved May 17, 2015.
  23. ↑ Zachary Matson (February 10, 2015). "Lake Havasu City's Kelli Ward may challenge John McCain for Senate seat in primary". Hava Sun News. Retrieved May 17, 2015.
  24. ↑ Shaler, Patricia (February 18, 2015). "Alex Meluskey to Seek U.S. Senate Seat in Arizona". Tea Party Scottsdale. Retrieved August 6, 2015.
  25. ↑ Nowicki, Dan (September 19, 2015). "Alex Meluskey airs TV ad in GOP primary challenge to John McCain". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved October 6, 2015.
  26. ↑ Nowicki, Dan (June 6, 2015). "McCain's support of Graham draws fire from Ward". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved September 1, 2015.
  27. ↑ Nowicki, Dan (July 14, 2015). "Kelli Ward enters GOP Senate race against John McCain". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved July 17, 2015.
  28. ↑ Nowicki, Dan (November 7, 2015). "David Pizer joins Arizona Republican race for U.S. Senate". azcentral.
  29. ↑ "Termination Report" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. March 18, 2016. Retrieved March 28, 2016.
  30. ↑ "Arizona Governor Jan Brewer Will Not Run For Re-Election". Outside the Beltway. March 12, 2014. Retrieved March 27, 2014.
  31. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Nowicki, Dan (February 16, 2013). "Is this Sen. McCain’s last term?". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved September 21, 2013.
  32. ↑ Costa, Robert (July 17, 2015). "Trump courts Arizona treasurer to challenge McCain". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 17, 2015.
  33. ↑ Raju, Manu; Cheney, Kyle (April 15, 2015). "Is the tea party afraid of John McCain?". Politico. Retrieved April 15, 2015.
  34. 1 2 Sanders, Rebekah L. (March 21, 2015). "Gosar won't challenge McCain". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved March 24, 2015.
  35. ↑ "Schweikert, Jones possible McCain primary foes in 2016?". AZ Central. November 29, 2014. Retrieved December 3, 2014.
  36. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Cheney, Kyle (December 29, 2014). "16 in '16: The new battle for the Senate". Politico. Retrieved December 29, 2014.
  37. ↑ Nowicki, Dan (May 2, 2016). "Christine Jones to run for Matt Salmon's seat in Congress". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved May 5, 2016.
  38. ↑ "McSally shows strong early support" (Press release). April 11, 2015. Retrieved 2015-05-16.
  39. ↑ Nowicki, Dan (January 16, 2016). "Maricopa County GOP slams McCain again, but Schweikert won't run". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved February 2, 2016.
  40. ↑ Arkin, James (January 8, 2016). "Bolton Endorses 16 for Re-Election to Congress". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved January 10, 2016.
  41. ↑ Nintzel, Jim (April 1, 2016). "McCain Wins Endorsement of U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce". Tucson Weekly. Retrieved April 2, 2016.
  42. ↑ "Senate Announcement". Meluskey for U.S. Senate. February 25, 2015. Retrieved September 1, 2015.
  43. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Moons, Michelle (December 28, 2015). "Large Number of AZ Legislators Endorse Kelli Ward Over John McCain". Breitbart. Retrieved December 31, 2015.
  44. 1 2 "I am humbled by the early support of my stand to defend our borders and end illegal immigration". Facebook. August 30, 2015. Retrieved September 1, 2015.
  45. ↑ De Ford, Josh (September 5, 2015). "Kelli Ward Tops McCain In New Senate Poll". Outset Magazine. Retrieved December 31, 2015.
  46. ↑ Moons, Michelle (December 7, 2015). "Gun Owners of America Endorses Kelli Ward in Primary Challenge Against John McCain". Breitbart. Retrieved December 31, 2015.
  47. 1 2 Nowicki, Dan (October 7, 2015). "Ann Kirkpatrick endorsed by Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved October 15, 2015.
  48. ↑ Grado, Gary (October 9, 2015). "Cap Times Q&A: Leonard Clark: Living the life of a liberal gadfly". Arizona Capitol Times. Retrieved October 15, 2015.
  49. ↑ Cahn, Emily (May 26, 2015). "Ann Kirkpatrick to Challenge John McCain in Arizona Senate". The Hill. Retrieved May 26, 2015.
  50. ↑ Nowicki, Dan (May 27, 2015). "Kirkpatrick looks to unseat McCain in 2016 U.S. Senate race". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved June 12, 2015.
  51. ↑ Montini, EJ (May 4, 2015). "Democrat believes sixth time is charm against McCain". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved June 12, 2015.
  52. ↑ Nowicki, Dan (June 27, 2015). "Kirkpatrick racking up Democratic endorsements". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved July 27, 2015.
  53. 1 2 Levinson, Alexis (April 9, 2015). "Moving Parts Complicate Democratic Challenge to McCain (Updated)". Roll Call. Retrieved April 9, 2015.
  54. 1 2 3 4 Nowicki, Dan (June 27, 2015). "Kirkpatrick racking up Democratic endorsements". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved April 2, 2016.
  55. ↑ Kirsten Gillibrand (December 31, 2015). "Proud to support @TammyforIL @DonnaFEdwards @KamalaHarris @Maggie_Hassan @Ann_Kirkpatrick @CatherineForNV & @KatieMcGintyPA for Senate.". Twitter. Retrieved January 13, 2016.
  56. ↑ Yokley, Eli (September 22, 2015). "EMILY’s List Will Support Kirkpatrick in Race Against McCain". Roll Call. Retrieved September 23, 2015.
  57. ↑ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for March 25, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 2, 2016.
  58. ↑ "Election Outlook: 2016 Race Ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved April 2, 2016.
  59. ↑ "2016 Race Ratings". Roll Call. Retrieved April 2, 2016.
  60. ↑ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved April 2, 2016.

External links

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