United States Senate election in Utah, 2016

United States Senate election in Utah, 2016
Utah
November 8, 2016
 
Nominee Mike Lee TBD
Party Republican Democratic

Incumbent U.S. Senator

Mike Lee
Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in Utah will take place on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Utah, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican Senator Mike Lee is running for re-election to a second term in office.[1]

Republican primary

Lee, a Tea Party Republican, may face a primary challenge from a member of the more establishment wing of the Party following his role in the unpopular 2013 federal government shutdown, which caused his approval ratings to drop precipitously.[2][3][3][4][5] However, since that time, his approval ratings have risen significantly.[6]

Changes to Utah's primary system could adversely affect Lee's chances at renomination.[7] Presently, Utah political parties hold conventions, where delegates attend and vote for candidates. Only if a candidate fails to gain at least 60% of the vote do the top two finishers proceed to a statewide primary election.[7] In 2010, incumbent Senator Bob Bennett finished third at the convention behind Lee and businessman Tim Bridgewater and was eliminated, with Lee defeating Bridgewater in the subsequent primary election. Lee's approval rating is much higher among the smaller group of more conservative convention delegates and a recent change in the law, backed by the group Count My Vote, allows candidates to bypass the convention by collecting signatures to advance to the primary.[7] Thus, a less conservative challenger could challenge Lee in the primary, appealing to more moderate Republican and unaffiliated voters, who could participate in the primary.[7] The constitutionality of the changes have been challenged in court by the Utah Republican Party.[7]

One possible challenger to Lee is former Governor of Utah and former United States Secretary of Health and Human Services Mike Leavitt, one of the founders of Count My Vote,[8] though he has denied interest in running.[7][9] Businessman and philanthropist Jon Huntsman, Sr., who has called Lee "an extremist" and "an embarrassment to the state of Utah" because of his "extremely radical" positions, may help bankroll an establishment, business-minded challenger, such as Zions Bank President A. Scott Anderson, Salt Lake Chamber of Commerce President Lane Beattie, University of Utah political scientist Kirk Jowers, Mitt Romney's son Josh Romney or former State Party Chairman Thomas Wright.[5] An effort to draft Huntsman, Sr.'s son, Jon Huntsman, Jr., the former Governor of Utah, former United States Ambassador to China under Barack Obama and a candidate for President in 2012,[10] was unsuccessful, with Huntsman ruling out a run against Lee.[11]

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Democratic primary

Candidates

Jonathan Swinton was the first Democrat to announce his candidacy for U.S. Senate.[24] The other candidates filing for the nomination were Craig Oliver, Misty K. Snow, and Jade Tuan Quoc Vo.[25] Oliver withdrew before the state convention.[25] while Vo was eliminated in the first round of balloting.[26]

Swinton faced criticism at the state convention from delegates who said he was pro-life,[26] a criticism based primarily on Swinton's op-ed in the Salt Lake Tribune in which he describes himself as a "conservative Democrat" and "pro-life" while also calling for "a full investigation of Planned Parenthood."[27] Swinton tried unsuccessfully to avoid discussing his views on abortion at the state convention.[26]

After two rounds of balloting, neither Snow nor Swinton received the 60% of the vote they needed to secure the Democratic nomination.[26] As a result the two will face off in a June 28 primary.[28]

Declared

Eliminated at Convention

Withdrawn

Declined

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[34] Safe R March 25, 2016
Daily Kos[35] Safe R April 4, 2016
Roll Call[36] Safe R April 4, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[37] Safe R March 21, 2016

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Mike
Lee (R)		 Jonathan
Swinton (D)		 Other Undecided
Dan Jones & Assoc. September 8–17, 2015 604 ± 4.0% 55% 25% 4% 17%

References

  1. 1 2 3 Bob Bernick (April 26, 2014). "GOP Delegates Give Rousing Reception to Sen. Mike Lee". Utah Policy. Retrieved December 12, 2014.
  2. 1 2 3 Robert Gehrke (October 10, 2013). "Most Utahns disapprove of Sen. Mike Lee, want him to compromise". Salt Lake Tribune. Archived from the original on October 10, 2013. Retrieved November 8, 2014.
  3. 1 2 3 4 Philip Rucker (October 22, 2013). "In Utah, tea party favorite Sen. Lee faces GOP backlash over government shutdown". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 8, 2014.
  4. ↑ Quin Monson (October 9, 2013). "Senator Lee and the Shutdown". Utah Data Points. Retrieved November 8, 2014.
  5. 1 2 3 4 Manu Raju (December 22, 2014). "Tea partier braces for primary challenge from the establishment". Politico. Retrieved December 22, 2014.
  6. ↑ MATT CANHAM (September 29, 2014). "Poll shows rebound in Utah’s Sen. Mike Lee’s approval rating". The Salt Lake tribune. Retrieved April 14, 2015.
  7. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Robert Gehrke (December 11, 2014). "Mike Lee could be vulnerable if Count My Vote changes stick". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved December 12, 2014.
  8. 1 2 Bob Bernick (December 7, 2012). "Bob Bernick's Notebook - Could Republicans Challenge Lee From His Left?". Utah Policy. Retrieved December 12, 2014.
  9. 1 2 Bob Bernick (June 9, 2014). "A 2016 Leavitt Campaign Not Likely". Utah Policy. Retrieved December 12, 2014.
  10. 1 2 Lisa Riley Roche (February 16, 2015). "Huntsman could run against Lee in 2016 Senate race, Republicans say". KSL.com. Retrieved February 18, 2015.
  11. 1 2 Lisa Riley Roche (February 17, 2015). "Huntsman: I won't challenge Sen. Mike Lee". Deseret News. Retrieved February 17, 2015.
  12. 1 2 Canham, Matt (March 11, 2015). "Sen. Mike Lee’s re-election backed by Jon Huntsman Jr., Zions’ Scott Anderson". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved May 24, 2015.
  13. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Abby Livingston (April 2, 2014). "Next Utah Races to Watch Are for Senate". Roll Call. Retrieved April 3, 2014.
  14. ↑ Bernick, Bob (January 21, 2015). "Poll: Herbert's Approval Ratings Remain High; Lt. Gov. Cox Relatively Unknown". Utah Policy. Retrieved December 19, 2015.
  15. ↑ Roche, Lisa Riley (April 25, 2015). "Former Romney finance director courting challenger to Sen. Mike Lee". KSL-TV. Retrieved April 27, 2015.
  16. ↑ Roche, Lisa Riley (April 28, 2015). "Provo businessman declines push to run against Sen. Mike Lee". Deseret News. Retrieved April 29, 2015.
  17. ↑ Roche, Lisa Riley (April 16, 2015). "Kirk Jowers leaves U.'s Hinckley Institute for job in private sector". KSL-TV. Retrieved May 30, 2015.
  18. 1 2 Canham, Matt (April 12, 2015). "Mike Lee could be a lock for re-election to Senate". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved May 30, 2015.
  19. ↑ Jacobsen, Morgan (November 24, 2015). "Newly selected UCAT president declines position, accepts counteroffer". KSL. Retrieved December 19, 2015.
  20. ↑ "Sean Reyes takes oath of office as Utah's top lawman". Daily Herald. January 5, 2015. Retrieved May 30, 2015.
  21. ↑ Lisa Riley Roche (April 21, 2015). "Josh Romney: I won't run against Sen. Mike Lee, but another Republican should". Deseret News.
  22. ↑ David Sherfinski (November 12, 2014). "Club for Growth endorses six GOP senators for re-election in 2016". The Washington Times. Retrieved November 12, 2014.
  23. ↑ "U.S. Senate Endorsements". Senate Conservatives Fund. Retrieved May 24, 2015.
  24. ↑ Nelson, Bob. "1st in Run Against Senator Lee is a Washington Outsider and Democrat". kuer.org. Retrieved 2016-04-28.
  25. 1 2 3 "2016 Candidate Filings - Lieutenant Governor's Office: Elections". elections.utah.gov. Retrieved 2016-04-28.
  26. 1 2 3 4 5 Tribune, Matt Canham The Salt Lake. "Weinholtz wins Dem nomination in Utah governor's race, says wife under investigation for pot possession". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved 2016-04-28.
  27. ↑ Swinton, Jonathan. "Op-ed: Shutting down the government is no way to lead". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved 2016-04-28.
  28. ↑ Leonard, Wendy (2016-04-23). "Utah Dems nominate Weinholtz to run for governor". DeseretNews.com. Retrieved 2016-04-28.
  29. 1 2 Canham, Matt (August 17, 2015). "Sen. Mike Lee’s first challenger is marriage therapist Jonathan Swinton, an untested Democrat". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved August 19, 2015.
  30. ↑ "2016 Candidate Filings - Lieutenant Governor's Office: Elections". elections.utah.gov. Retrieved 2016-04-28.
  31. ↑ Cheney, Kyle (December 29, 2014). "16 in '16: The new battle for the Senate". Politico. Retrieved December 29, 2014.
  32. ↑ Riley Roche, Lisa (April 8, 2015). "Poll: Josh Romney would be a tough opponent for Sen. Mike Lee". Deseret News. Retrieved August 19, 2015.
  33. ↑ Roche, Lisa Riley (July 21, 2015). "Doug Owens announces another run for congress". KSL News. Retrieved July 21, 2015.
  34. ↑ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for March 25, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 4, 2016.
  35. ↑ "Election Outlook: 2016 Race Ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved April 4, 2016.
  36. ↑ "2016 Race Ratings". Roll Call. Retrieved April 4, 2016.
  37. ↑ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved April 4, 2016.

External links

Official campaign websites
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