United States Senate election in Alabama, 2016

United States Senate election in Alabama, 2016
Alabama
November 8, 2016
 
Nominee Richard Shelby Ron Crumpton
Party Republican Democratic

Incumbent U.S. Senator

Richard Shelby
Republican
Elections in Alabama

The 2016 United States Senate election in Alabama will take place on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alabama, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican Senator Richard Shelby is running for re-election to a sixth term in office. The primaries were held on March 1.[1]

Background

Shelby was first elected to the Senate in 1986 as a Democrat and was easily re-elected in 1992 as such. He switched his party affiliation to Republican on November 9, 1994, one day after the Republicans won control of both houses in the midterm elections. He won his first full term as a Republican in 1998 by a large margin and faced no significant opposition in 2004 or 2010.

Republican primary

Following the divisive Republican primary in Mississippi ahead of the 2014 election in which Senator Thad Cochran was almost defeated, it has been speculated that Shelby could also face a Tea Party primary challenger, due to his lengthy tenure and support for federal largesse. However, that didn't happen, in part due to his large campaign war chest, which stood at $19.4 million as of September, 2015.[1] If Shelby had decided to retire, numerous high-profile Alabama Republicans were speculated to run, including U.S. Representatives Robert Aderholt, Mo Brooks, Bradley Byrne, Gary Palmer, Martha Roby, and Mike Rogers, State Treasurer Young Boozer, State Speaker Mike Hubbard, Lieutenant Governor Kay Ivey, State Senate President Pro Tempore Del Marsh, Secretary of State John Merrill, U.S. Appeals Court Judge William H. Pryor, Jr., former Governor Bob Riley, and Attorney General Luther Strange.[2][3][4] Shelby announced in January 2015 that he would run for re-election.[5]

Candidates

Filed

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Richard
Shelby		 Someone
Else		 Undecided
Thomas Partners Strategies^ January 29-30, 2016 1,299 ±2.7% 55% 29% 16%
Thomas Partners Strategies^ December 2015 ? ±?% 64% 15% 21%
Thomas Partners Strategies^ October 2015 ? ±?% 53% 22% 26%
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Marcus
Bowman		 John
Martin		 Shadrack
McGill		 Jonathan
McConnell		 Richard
Shelby		 Undecided
Thomas Partners Strategies^ January 29-30, 2016 1,299 ±2.7% 1% 1% 2% 25% 55% 16%
McLaughlin & Associates* January 25-26, 2016 600 ±4.0% 1% 1% 1% 9% 75% 13%
Thomas Partners Strategies^ December 2015 ? ±?% 1% 2% 3% 15% 64% 21%
McLaughlin & Associates* November 2015 ? ±?% 1% 2% 1% 5% 71% 20%

Primary results

Republican primary results[12]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Richard Shelby 503,437 64.91
Republican Jonathan McConnell 213,932 27.58
Republican John Martin 23,447 3.02
Republican Marcus Bowman 19,608 2.53
Republican Shadrack McGill 15,151 1.95
Total votes 775,575 100

Democratic primary

Candidates

Filed

Failed to Qualify

Declined

Primary results

Democratic primary results[12]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ron Crumpton 148,305 56.54
Democratic Charles Nana 113,988 43.46
Total votes 262,293 100

General election

Candidates

Endorsements

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[20] Safe R March 25, 2016
Daily Kos[21] Safe R April 4, 2016
Roll Call[22] Safe R April 4, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[23] Safe R March 21, 2016

References

  1. 1 2 Dean, Charles (June 30, 2014). "Could the Tea Party challenge Sen. Richard Shelby? Sure, but there are $17 million reasons not to". AL.com. Retrieved July 1, 2014.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Livingston, Abby (February 6, 2013). "Farm Team: Long Line Forming for GOP Hopefuls Looking to Move Up in Alabama". Roll Call. Retrieved June 19, 2014.
  3. ↑ Cheney, Kyle (December 29, 2014). "16 in '16: The new battle for the Senate". Politico. Retrieved December 29, 2014.
  4. ↑ Jim Stinson (September 18, 2014). "Who is next? Five people who could be governor after the 2018 election". AL.com. Retrieved September 19, 2014.
  5. 1 2 Gore, Leada (January 29, 2015). "Sen. Richard Shelby is in for 2016 and that changes Alabama's political landscape". AL.com. Retrieved November 6, 2015.
  6. 1 2 3 4 Sims, Cliff (November 6, 2015). "Here’s what you need to know about the four Republicans challenging Richard Shelby". Yellowhammer News. Retrieved November 8, 2015.
  7. ↑ Pathé, Simone (November 6, 2015). "Alabama’s Richard Shelby Gets a Primary Challenge". Roll Call. Retrieved November 6, 2015.
  8. 1 2 3 Troyan, Mary (November 7, 2015). "Sen. Richard Shelby will face Republican challengers". Montgomery Advertiser. Retrieved November 6, 2015.
  9. ↑ Koplowitz, Howard (November 6, 2015). "Shadrack McGill among GOP challengers to Shelby". AL.com. Retrieved November 8, 2015.
  10. ↑ Moseley, Brandon (December 9, 2015). "John Rice Endorses McConnell". Alabama Political Reporter. Retrieved January 22, 2016.
  11. ↑ Koplowitz, Howard (January 7, 2016). "Citizens United PAC endorses Jonathan McConnell for Senate". AL.com. Retrieved January 22, 2016.
  12. 1 2 "2016 Primary Election Unofficial Results, March 1, 2016". Alabama Secretary of State. Retrieved March 2, 2016.
  13. ↑ Moseley, Brandon (April 15, 2015). "Crumpton Announces Bid to Unseat Shelby". Alabama Political Reporter. Retrieved April 15, 2015.
  14. ↑ Moseley, Brandon (November 6, 2015). "Shelby Faces Three Challengers". Alabama Political Reporter. Retrieved November 6, 2015.
  15. ↑ "Huntsville man kicks off campaign for U.S. Senate". WAFF. November 3, 2015. Retrieved November 6, 2015.
  16. ↑ Charles J. Dean (June 9, 2014). "Who are some Democrats who might run for governor in 2018". AL.com. Retrieved November 13, 2014.
  17. ↑ Moseley, Brandon (March 21, 2016). "Nana Says the Almighty Instructed Him to Run for Senate as a Write In Candidate". Alabama Political Reporter. Retrieved March 21, 2016.
  18. 1 2 3 4 5 "Richard Shelby Endorsements". Retrieved December 28, 2015.
  19. ↑ Moseley, Brandon (January 8, 2016). "BCA, Veterans Group Endorse Senator Richard Shelby for Re-Election". Alabama Political Reporter. Retrieved January 22, 2016.
  20. ↑ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for March 25, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 4, 2016.
  21. ↑ "Election Outlook: 2016 Race Ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved April 4, 2016.
  22. ↑ "2016 Race Ratings". Roll Call. Retrieved April 4, 2016.
  23. ↑ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved April 4, 2016.

External Links

Official campaign websites
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