United States presidential election in Illinois, 2008

United States presidential election in Illinois, 2008
Illinois
November 4, 2008
 
Nominee Barack Obama John McCain
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Illinois Arizona
Running mate Joe Biden Sarah Palin
Electoral vote 21 0
Popular vote 3,419,348 2,031,179
Percentage 61.85% 36.74%

County Results
  Obama—70-80%
  Obama—60-70%
  Obama—50-60%
  Obama—<50%
  McCain—<50%
  McCain—50-60%
  McCain—60-70%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

The 2008 United States presidential election in Illinois took place on November 4, 2008 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 21 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Illinois, the home state of Barack Obama, who won state with a 25.1% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state Obama would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. One of the most reliably blue states in the nation, Illinois has not voted for a Republican presidential nominee since 1988, when George H.W. Bush narrowly carried the state. In 2008, continuing that trend, it appeared that a generic Democratic presidential nominee could have easily won Illinois. Thus, it surprised no one that Barack Obama, who represented Illinois in the U.S. Senate, won Illinois in 2008 over Republican John McCain in a landslide victory, clinching near 62% of the total vote.

Democratic primary

Illinois Democratic Primary, 2008
Illinois
February 5, 2008 (2008-02-05)
 
Nominee Barack Obama Hillary Rodham Clinton
Party Democratic Democratic
Home state Illinois New York
Popular vote 1,318,234 667,930
Percentage 64.66% 32.76%

The Illinois Democratic Presidential Primary took place on Super Tuesday, February 5, 2008, with 153 delegates at stake. The winner in each of Illinois's 19 congressional districts was awarded all of that district's delegates, totaling 100. Another 53 delegates were awarded to the statewide winner, Barack Obama. The 153 delegates represented Illinois at the Democratic National Convention in Denver, Colorado. Thirty-two other unpledged delegates, known as superdelegates, also attended the convention and cast their votes as well.

Polls

Polls indicated that then-U.S. Senator Barack Obama was leading then-U.S. Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton by double digits in the days before the contest in his home state of Illinois.[1]

Results

Illinois Democratic Presidential Primary Results – 2008
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Delegates
Democratic Barack Obama 1,318,234 64.66% 104
Democratic Hillary Rodham Clinton 667,930 32.76% 49
Democratic John Edwards 39,719 1.95% 0
Democratic Dennis Kucinich 4,234 0.21% 0
Democratic Joe Biden 3,788 0.19% 0
Democratic Bill Richardson 3,538 0.17% 0
Democratic Christopher Dodd 1,171 0.06% 0
Totals 2,038,614 100.00% 153
Voter turnout % —

Chicago Public Radio reported on March 13, 2008, that the delegate counts were recalculated and Obama won 106 delegates to 47 for Clinton.[2]

During the state by state roll-call at the Democratic National Convention, the Illinois delegation declined to cast their votes.[3]

Analysis

It was no surprise that Barack Obama cruised to a landslide victory in Illinois, the state he had represented in the U.S. Senate since 2004. He enjoyed massive support in his state among all demographics. According to exit polls, 57 percent of voters in the Illinois Democratic Primary were Caucasian and they opted for Obama 57-41; 24 percent of voters were African American and they, too, backed Obama 93-5; and 17 percent of voters in the primary were Hispanic/Latino and they narrowly backed Obama 50-49. Obama won all age groups but tied Clinton among senior citizens aged 65 and over. He won all voters in the state of all educational attainment levels as well as income/socioeconomic classes. He won all ideological groups and voters from both parties as well as self-identified Independents. Regarding religion, Obama won every major denomination except Roman Catholics, who narrowly backed Clinton 50-48 percent. Obama won Protestants by a margin of 58-38, other Christians 79-19, other religions 82-17, and atheists/agnostics 78-21.

Results of the Illinois Democratic Primary by County. Dark blue counties were won by Obama; gray counties were won by Clinton.

Obama performed extremely well statewide and wracked up massive victories in his home city of Chicago as well as its suburbs and the metropolitan area. He also won Northern Illinois as well as the collar counties by substantial victories. Clinton’s best performance was in Southern Illinois among the more rural and conservative counties that are majority white, although Obama still won the region as a whole.

Republican primary

Illinois Republican primary, 2008
Illinois
February 5, 2008 (2008-02-05)
 
Candidate John McCain Mitt Romney Mike Huckabee
Party Republican Republican Republican
Home state Arizona Massachusetts Arkansas
Delegate count 54 3 0
Popular vote 426,777 257,265 148,053
Percentage 47.45% 28.60% 16.46%

2008 Illinois Republican primary county map.
  John McCain
  Mitt Romney
  Mike Huckabee

The Illinois Republican primary, 2008 was held on February 5, 2008. Illinois was one of 24 States holding a primary or caucus on Super Tuesday. Delegates from each of Illinois' 19 congressional districts are selected by direct election. In addition, the primary ballot also contains a preference poll that lists the presidential candidates.

Official Results[4] [5]
Candidate Votes Percentage Delegates
John McCain 426,777 47.45% 54
Mitt Romney 257,265 28.60% 3
Mike Huckabee 148,053 16.46% 0
Ron Paul 45,055 5.01% 0
Rudy Giuliani* 11,837 1.32% 0
Fred Thompson* 7,259 0.81% 0
Alan Keyes 2,318 0.26% 0
Jim Mitchell, Jr. 483 0.05% 0
Tom Tancredo* 375 0.04% 0
Total 899,422 100% 57

*Candidate withdrew prior to the primary

General election campaign

Predictions

There were 17 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

  1. D.C. Political Report: Democrat[6]
  2. Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat[7]
  3. Takeaway: Solid Obama[8]
  4. Election Projection: Solid Obama[9]
  5. Electoral-vote.com: Strong Democrat[10]
  6. Washington Post: Solid Obama[11]
  7. Politico: Solid Obama[12]
  8. Real Clear Politics: Solid Obama[13]
  9. FiveThirtyEight.com: Solid Obama[11]
  10. CQ Politics: Safe Democrat[14]
  11. New York Times: Solid Democrat[15]
  12. CNN: Safe Democrat[16]
  13. NPR: Solid Obama[11]
  14. MSNBC: Solid Obama[11]
  15. Fox News: Democrat[17]
  16. Associated Press: Democrat[18]
  17. Rasmussen Reports: Safe Democrat[19]

Polling

Obama won every single pre-election poll, and each by a double digit margin and with at least 52% (with the exception of an ARG poll). The final 3 polls averaged Obama leading 60% to 35%.[20]

Fundraising

Obama raised $35,307,625. McCain raised $7,207,428.[21]

Advertising and visits

Obama spent $23,319. McCain and interest groups spent $52,865.[22] The Democratic ticket visited the state 13 times. McCain's ticket visited the state twice.[23]

Analysis

For most of the second half of the 20th century, Illinois was reckoned as a Republican-leaning swing state. It voted Republican in every election from 1952 to 1988, save for 1960 and 1964. However, George H. W. Bush just barely won the state in 1988, and it swung heavily to Bill Clinton and the Democrats in 1992. Since then, Democrats have won the state by fairly comfortable margins, and it is now reckoned as the most solidly Democratic state in the Midwest.

The blue trend in the Land of Lincoln in presidential elections can be largely attributed to Cook County, home to Chicago, which makes up about 41.2% of the state's total population.[24] While Chicago has been a Democratic stronghold for decades, the suburban areas of Cook County have historically tilted Republican. The brand of Republicanism in the suburbs, however, has historically been a moderate one, and these areas swung Democratic as the national party moved more to the right. Democrats also do very well in the Illinois portions of the Quad Cities and St. Louis areas. Additionally, the historically Republican collar counties near Chicago--DuPage, Lake, McHenry, Kane, and Will--have become friendlier to Democrats at the national level.

Barack Obama, the junior U.S. Senator from Illinois at the time of the election, carried the state handily, defeating John McCain of Arizona by a margin of 1.38 million votes. Obama carried his home county, Cook County, with roughly 76 percent of the vote. He also swept the collar counties, with DuPage, Kendall, Lake and Will giving him double-digit margins. Notably, DuPage and McHenry hadn't supported a Democrat for president since 1948.[25] Obama also did very well in several rural counties that historically voted Republican. McCain did, however, win several of the more rural counties in Southern Illinois. It was not nearly enough, however, to put a serious dent in Obama's 25-point margin in the state.[26]

During the same election, senior U.S. Senator and Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin, a Democrat, was reelected to the U.S. Senate with 67.84% of the vote over Republican Dr. Steve Sauerberg who received 28.53%. At the state level, Democrats picked up three seats in the Illinois House of Representatives.

Results

United States presidential election in Illinois, 2008
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 3,419,348 61.85% 21
Republican John McCain Sarah Palin 2,031,179 36.74% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 31,152 0.56% 0
Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root 19,642 0.36% 0
Green Cynthia McKinney Rosa Clemente 11,838 0.21% 0
Constitution Chuck Baldwin Darrell Castle 8,256 0.15% 0
Write-Ins Write-ins 7,084 0.13% 0
Totals 5,528,499 100.00% 21
Voter turnout 58.1%

By county

County Obama% Obama# McCain% McCain#
Adams 38% 11,700 61% 18,592
Alexander 56% 2,189 43% 1,692
Bond 48% 3,832 50% 3,938
Boone 51% 11,324 47% 10,396
Brown 38% 985 60% 1,541
Bureau 52% 8,872 46% 7,902
Calhoun 53% 1,421 45% 1,221
Carroll 52% 3,956 47% 3,589
Cass 50% 2,690 48% 2,617
Champaign 58% 48,351 40% 33,748
Christian 46% 6,912 52% 7,869
Clark 45% 3,737 53% 4,406
Clay 38% 2,423 61% 3,924
Clinton 44% 7,653 54% 9,348
Coles 51% 11,704 48% 10,962
Cook 76% 1,608,870 23% 482,395
Crawford 43% 3,877 56% 5,067
Cumberland 39% 2,052 59% 3,155
DeKalb 58% 25,765 41% 18,260
DeWitt 42% 3,299 56% 4,345
Douglas 39% 3,226 60% 5,001
DuPage 55% 227,416 44% 182,860
Edgar 45% 3,737 53% 4,393
Edwards 34% 1,140 64% 2,136
Effingham 31% 5,256 67% 11,313
Fayette 41% 3,963 57% 5,493
Ford 35% 2,226 64% 4,075
Franklin 48% 8,873 50% 9,390
Fulton 60% 9,722 38% 6,244
Gallatin 56% 1,587 42% 1,211
Greene 45% 2,617 53% 3,048
Grundy 49% 9,134 49% 9,144
Hamilton 42% 1,794 55% 2,353
Hancock 43% 3,753 55% 4,778
Hardin 40% 892 59% 1,330
Henderson 58% 2,213 40% 1,540
Henry 53% 13,177 45% 11,247
Iroquois 34% 4,640 64% 8,686
Jackson 60% 15,199 38% 9,665
Jasper 40% 2,063 58% 2,963
Jefferson 44% 7,460 54% 9,293
Jersey 48% 5,036 50% 5,320
JoDaviess 54% 6,392 44% 5,163
Johnson 31% 1,477 67% 3,138
Kane 55% 105,592 44% 84,223
Kankakee 52% 24,719 47% 22,508
Kendall 53% 23,529 46% 20,675
Knox 59% 14,165 39% 9,396
Lake 56% 111,051 43% 85,284
LaSalle 55% 27,415 44% 21,855
Lawrence 46% 3,013 52% 3,401
Lee 48% 7,757 51% 8,243
Livingston 40% 6,184 59% 9,180
Logan 41% 5,245 58% 7,424
Macon 50% 25,419 49% 24,901
Macoupin 54% 12,071 44% 9,879
Madison 54% 68,836 45% 57,059
Marion 48% 8,334 50% 8,687
Marshall 49% 3,078 50% 3,142
Mason 52% 3,540 46% 3,139
Massac 37% 2,693 61% 4,371
McDonough 52% 6,780 46% 6,047
McHenry 52% 71,976 47% 64,595
McLean 50% 37,551 49% 36,657
Menard 42% 2,704 57% 3,672
Mercer 55% 4,885 43% 3,830
Monroe 44% 7,943 55% 9,870
Montgomery 50% 6,486 48% 6,141
Morgan 49% 7,458 49% 7,585
Moultrie 43% 2,663 55% 3,466
Ogle 45% 11,247 53% 13,131
Peoria 56% 44,396 42% 33,018
Perry 47% 4,697 51% 5,077
Piatt 43% 3,856 55% 4,988
Pike 40% 3,021 59% 4,451
Pope 38% 842 60% 1,339
Pulaski 50% 1,636 49% 1,592
Putnam 57% 1,900 41% 1,376
Randolph 49% 7,387 50% 7,536
Richland 42% 3,177 57% 4,320
Rock Island 62% 42,175 37% 25,338
Saline 44% 5,082 53% 6,096
Sangamon 51% 51,176 47% 46,857
Schuyler 50% 1,896 48% 1,830
Scott 42% 1,090 56% 1,453
Shelby 39% 4,236 59% 6,390
St. Clair 62% 77,896 37% 47,005
Stark 47% 1,357 52% 1,513
Stephenson 52% 11,010 46% 9,686
Tazewell 46% 29,335 52% 33,203
Union 43% 3,916 55% 4,999
Vermilion 49% 16,228 49% 16,046
Wabash 43% 2,462 56% 3,252
Warren 53% 4,286 45% 3,637
Washington 42% 3,338 56% 4,468
Wayne 32% 2,545 67% 5,381
White 44% 3,315 53% 3,985
Whiteside 58% 15,587 40% 10,867
Will 56% 154,691 43% 119,049
Williamson 42% 12,893 56% 17,351
Winnebago 55% 69,903 43% 53,806
Woodford 36% 6,969 63% 12,137

By congressional district

Favorite son Barack Obama won 16 of the state’s 19 congressional districts, including all districts held by Democrats and four districts held by Republicans.

District McCain Obama Representative
1st 12.93% 86.53% Bobby Rush
2nd 9.86% 89.68% Jesse Jackson Jr.
3rd 35.08% 63.60% Dan Lipinski
4th 13.22% 85.44% Luis Gutierrez
5th 26.22% 72.82% Rahm Emanuel (110th Congress)
Mike Quigley (111th Congress)
6th 42.76% 55.91% Peter Roskam
7th 11.57% 87.77% Danny K. Davis
8th 42.86% 55.74% Melissa Bean
9th 26.43% 72.34% Jan Schakowsky
10th 38.13% 60.92% Mark Kirk
11th 45.14% 53.32% Jerry Weller (110th Congress)
Debbie Halvorson (111th Congress)
12th 42.89% 55.49% Jerry Costello
13th 44.60% 54.21% Judy Biggert
14th 43.77% 54.83% Dennis Hastert (110th Congress)
Bill Foster (111th Congress)
15th 50.43% 47.82% Timothy V. Johnson
16th 45.52% 52.78% Donald Manzullo
17th 42.15% 56.39% Philip Hare
18th 50.03% 48.32% Ray LaHood (110th Congress)
Aaron Schock (111th Congress)
19th 54.25% 43.98% John Shimkus

Electors

Technically the voters of Illinois cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Illinois is allocated 21 electors because it has 19 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 21 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 21 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[27] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 21 were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:[28]

  1. Constance A. Howard
  2. Carrie Austin
  3. Shirley R. Madigan
  4. Ricardo Munoz
  5. James DeLeo
  6. Marge Friedman
  7. Vera Davis
  8. Nancy Shepardson
  9. William Marovitz
  10. Lauren Beth Gash
  11. Debbie Halvorson
  12. Molly McKenzie
  13. Julia Kennedy Beckma
  14. Mark Guethle
  15. Lynn Foster
  16. John M. Nelson
  17. Mary Boland
  18. Shirley McCombs
  19. Don Johnston
  20. Barbara Flynn Currie
  21. John P. Daley

See also

References

  1. ↑ "Illinois Democratic Primary". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved 2008-02-04.
  2. ↑ "Clinton Loses Two Illinois Delegates". Chicago Public Radio (WBEZ). Retrieved 2008-04-02.
  3. ↑ "Roll Call Vote - 27 August 2008".
  4. ↑ "General Primary - 2/5/2008". 2008-02-05. Retrieved 2008-05-24.
  5. ↑ "Illinois Republican Delegation 2008". Retrieved 2009-07-05.
  6. ↑ D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries
  7. ↑ Presidential | The Cook Political Report
  8. ↑ Adnaan (2008-09-20). "Track the Electoral College vote predictions". The Takeaway. Retrieved 2009-11-14.
  9. ↑ Election Projection: 2008 Elections - Polls, Projections, Results
  10. ↑ Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily
  11. 1 2 3 4 Based on Takeaway
  12. ↑ POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com
  13. ↑ RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map
  14. ↑ CQ Politics | CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008
  15. ↑ "Electoral College Map". The New York Times. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
  16. ↑ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
  17. ↑ "Winning the Electoral College". Fox News. 2010-04-27.
  18. ↑ roadto270
  19. ↑ Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports™
  20. ↑ Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
  21. ↑ Presidential Campaign Finance
  22. ↑ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
  23. ↑ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
  24. ↑ "Cook County QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau". Retrieved 2008-12-13.
  25. ↑ Todd, Chuck and Gawiser, Sheldon. How Barack Obama Won. New York City: Vintage, 2009.
  26. ↑ "Illinois State Board of Elections - 2008 General Election - Comma delimited text". Retrieved 2008-12-01.
  27. ↑ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Retrieved 2008-11-01.
  28. ↑ U. S. Electoral College 2008 Election - Certificates
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