Nationwide opinion polling for the Republican Party 2016 presidential primaries

This is a list of nationwide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the Republican primaries for the 2016 United States presidential election. The persons named in the polls were either declared candidates, former candidates, or received media speculation about their possible candidacy. On May 4, 2016, Donald Trump became the sole contender and presumptive nominee.

Aggregate polling

Poll source Date(s) included or updated Ted Cruz John Kasich Donald Trump Others
FiveThirtyEight Average[1] Updated May 1, 2016 28.8% 18.2% 43.9%
HuffPost Pollster Model[2] Updated May 1, 2016 25.1% 14.7% 51.7% Undecided 5.4% Other 3.8%
RealClear Politics Average[3] April 8–28, 2016 29.8% 20.0% 44.0%
270 to Win Average[4] April 8–29, 2016 29.8% 20.0% 44.0%

Individual polls

Polls conducted in 2016

Summary of the opinion polls taken since January 2016 for the Republican Party presidential primaries

Polls conducted after March 15 primaries

Poll source Sample size Margin of error Date(s) administered Ted Cruz John Kasich Donald Trump Others
Ipsos/Reuters[5] 423 ± 5.3% April 30 – May 4, 2016 27% 17% 55% Won't Vote 2%
Morning Consult[6] 723 ± 2.0% April 29 – May 2, 2016 20% 13% 56% Other 4%
Undecided 7%
CNN/ORC[7] 406 ± 5.0% April 28 – May 1, 2016 25% 19% 49% Other 3%
Don't Know 1%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[8] 3479 ± 2.2% April 25 – May 1, 2016 22% 14% 56% Undecided 7%
Morning Consult[9] 757 ± 2.0% April 26–29, 2016 27% 12% 48% Other 8%
Don't Know 5%
IBD/TIPP[10] 354 ± 5.0% April 22–29, 2016 29% 16% 48% Other 8%
Don't Know 1%
Ipsos/Reuters[11] 762 ± 4% April 23–27, 2016 28% 17% 49% Won't Vote 5%
YouGov/Economist[12] 499 ± 2.8% April 22–26, 2016 28% 19% 49% No Preference 4%
Suffolk University/USA Today[13] 292 ± 5.7% April 20–24, 2016 29% 17% 45% Undecided 8%
Other 1%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[14] 2633 ± 2.6% April 18–24, 2016 26% 17% 50% Undecided 7%
Ipsos/Reuters[15] 546 ± 4.8% April 16–20, 2016 31% 16% 49% Won't Vote 4%
Pew Research[16] 740 ± % April 12–19, 2016 25% 20% 44% Other 1%
Undecided 2%
Morning Consult[17] 780 ± 2.0% April 15–17, 2016 26% 13% 46% Other 7%
Undecided 8%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[18] 3333 ± 2.3% April 11–17, 2016 28% 19% 46% Undecided 7%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal[19] 310 ± 5.57% April 10–14, 2016 35% 24% 40% None 1%
Fox News[20] 419 ± 4.5% April 11–13, 2016 27% 25% 45% Other 1%
Undecided 1%
Ipsos/Reuters[21] 622 ± 4.5% April 9–13, 2016 32% 21% 44% Won't Vote 4%
CBS News[22] 399 ± 6% April 8–12, 2016 29% 18% 42% No Preference 6%
None 4%
YouGov/Economist[23] 502 ± 2.8% April 8–11, 2016 25% 18% 53% No Preference 4%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[24] 3225 ± 2.3% April 4–10, 2016 30% 16% 46% Don't Know 8%
Ipsos/Reuters[25] 584 ± 4.6% April 2–6, 2016 38% 19% 39% Won't Vote 3%
Morning Consult[26] 770 ± 2.0% April 1–3, 2016 27% 14% 45% Other 6%
Don't Know 8%
Public Religion Research Institute/The Atlantic[27] 785 ± 2.5% March 30 – April 3, 2016 32% 21% 36% Other 2%
Don't Know 8%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[28] 3353 ± 2.2% March 28 – April 3, 2016 28% 18% 45% Not sure 9%
IBD/TIPP[29] 388 ± 5.1% March 28 – April 2, 2016 31% 19% 38% Other 7%
Not sure 4%
McClatchy/Marist [30] 444 ± 4.7% March 29–31, 2016 35% 20% 40% Other 1%
Not sure 3%
Ipsos/Reuters[31] 665 ± 4.3% March 27–31, 2016 33% 19% 44% Won't Vote 5%
YouGov/Economist[32] 525 ± 2.8% March 26–29, 2016 29% 18% 48% No Preference 5%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[33] 1611 ± 3.4% March 21–27, 2016 27% 18% 48% Undecided 7%
Pew Research Center[34] 834 ± 2.4% March 17–27, 2016 32% 20% 41% Don't Know 1%
Public Policy Polling[35] 505 ± 4.4% March 24–26, 2016 32% 22% 42% Undecided 4%
Morning Consult[36] 803 ± 2.0% March 24–26, 2016 28% 10% 49% Other 5%
Don't Know 8%
Ipsos/Reuters[37] 583 ± 4.6% March 19–23, 2016 28% 20% 45% Won't Vote 7%
Mclaughin[38] 436 ± 3.1% March 17–23, 2016 28% 16% 45% Undecided 10%
Fox News[39] 388 ± 5.0% March 20–22, 2016 38% 17% 41% Other 1%
None of the above 2%
Don't know 1%
Bloomberg/Selzer[40] 366 ± 5.1% March 19–22, 2016 31% 25% 40% Not Sure 5%
Morning Consult[41] 754 ± 2.0% March 18–21, 2016 26% 13% 45% Other 6%
Don't Know 10%
Quinnipiac[42] 652 ± 3.8% March 16–21, 2016 29% 16% 43% Other 3%
Undecided 9%
Monmouth University[43] 353 ± 5.2% March 17–20, 2016 29% 18% 41% Other 2%
Undecided 4%
CNN/ORC[44] 397 ± 5.0% March 17–20, 2016 31% 17% 47% Other 3%
None 1%
CBS News/New York Times[45] 362 ± 6.0% March 17–20, 2016 26% 20% 46% None 4%
Morning Consult[46] 758 ± 2.0% March 16–18, 2016 27% 14% 43% Other 7%
Don't Know 10%
Rasmussen[47] 719 ± 4.0% March 16–17, 2016 28% 21% 43% 5% Other
3% Undecided

Polls conducted after Super Tuesday

Poll source Sample
size
Margin of
error
Date(s)
administered
Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Others
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[48] 3489 ± 2.5% March 14–20, 2016 24% 16% 6% 45% Don't Know 8%
Ipsos/Reuters[49] 605 ± 4.4% March 12–16, 2016 24% 9% 13% 46% Won't Vote 7%
Morning Consult[50] 1516 ± 2.0% March 11–13, 2016 23% 9% 12% 42% Don't Know 9%
Other 5%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[51] 2280 ± 3.1% March 7–13, 2016 24% 12% 11% 44% Don't Know 7%
No Answer 1%
YouGov/Economist[52] 400 ± 2.9% March 10–12, 2016 22% 11% 10% 53% No Preference 4%
Ipsos/Reuters[53] 639 ± 4.3% March 5–9, 2016 24% 13% 13% 41% Won't Vote 5%
Morning Consult[54] 781 ± 2.0% March 4–6, 2016 23% 10% 14% 40% Don't Know 8%
Other 5%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal[55] 397 ± 4.9% March 3–6, 2016 27% 22% 20% 30% Other 1%
ABC News/Washington Post[56] 400 ± 5.5% March 3–6, 2016 25% 13% 18% 34% None 5%
Other 4%

Polls conducted after the South Carolina primary

Poll source Sample
size
Margin of
error
Date(s)
administered
Ben Carson Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Others
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[57] 6,481 ± 2.1% February 29 – March 6, 2016 8% 20% 9% 18% 39% Don't Know 6%
Ipsos/Reuters[58] 542 ± 4.6% February 27 – March 2, 2016 10% 16% 10% 20% 41% Won't Vote 4%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[59] 8,759 ± 1.8% February 22–28, 2016 8% 18% 7% 21% 40% Don't Know 6%
Morning Consult[60] 777 ± 2% February 26–27, 2016 9% 15% 5% 14% 44% Other 4%
Don't Know 8%
CNN/ORC[61] 427 ± 5% February 24–27, 2016 10% 15% 6% 16% 49% Other 3%
Don't Know 1%
YouGov/Economist[62] 456 ± ?% February 24–27, 2016 7% 21% 8% 17% 44% No Preference 3%
SurveyMonkey[63] 1,946 ± 3.5% February 24–25, 2016 8% 19% 8% 21% 39% Don't Know 6%
Morning Consult[64] 1430 ± 2.6% February 24–25, 2016 9% 14% 5% 19% 42% Other 2%
Don't Know 9%
IBD/TIPP Poll[65] 400 ± 5% February 19–24, 2016 8% 20% 7% 18% 31%
Rasmussen Reports/
Pulse Opinion Research[66]
697 ± 4% February 21–22, 2016 8% 17% 12% 21% 36% Undecided 4%
Other 3%

Polls conducted after the New Hampshire primary

Poll source Sample
size
Margin of
error
Date(s)
administered
Jeb Bush Ben Carson Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump Others
Ipsos/Reuters[67] 553 ± 4.8% February 20–24, 2016 3% 8% 22% 8% 13% 42% Won't Vote 4%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[68] 3368 ± 2.4% February 15–21, 2016 4% 8% 19% 8% 16% 36% No Answer 1%
Don't Know 7%
Fox News[69] 404 ± 4.5% February 15–17, 2016 9% 9% 19% 8% 15% 36% Other 1%
Don't Know 3%
Ipsos/Reuters[70] 517 ± 4.9% February 13–17, 2016 9% 10% 17% 9% 11% 40% Jim Gilmore 1%
Won't Vote 4%
Morning Consult[71] 662 ± ?% February 15–16, 2016 7% 11% 12% 3% 14% 41% Someone Else 3%
Don't Know 9%
NBC News/
Wall Street Journal[72]
400 ± 4.9% February 14–16, 2016 4% 10% 28% 11% 17% 26% None 1%
Not Sure 3%
CBS News/
New York Times[73]
581 ± 5.0% February 12–16, 2016 4% 6% 18% 11% 12% 35% Someone Else 1%
None of them 5%
Robert Morris[74] 259 ± 3.0% February 11–16, 2016 5.8% 12.4% 18.5% 3.9% 14.3% 37.8% Other 7.3%
YouGov/Economist[75] 472 ± ?% February 11–15, 2016 6% 7% 19% 11% 16% 39% Other 1%
No Preference 1%
USA Today/
Suffolk University[76]
358 ± 5.2% February 11–15, 2016 6% 4% 20% 7% 17% 35% Undecided 12%
Quinnipiac[77] 602 ± 4% February 10–15, 2016 4% 4% 18% 6% 19% 39% Won't Vote 1%
Don't Care 9%
Morning Consult[78] 710 ± 3.7% February 10–11, 2016 8% 10% 17% 4% 10% 44% Don't know/no opinion 6%

Polls conducted after the Iowa caucuses

Poll source Sample
size
Margin of
error
Date(s)
administered
Jeb
Bush
Ben
Carson
Chris
Christie
Ted
Cruz
Carly
Fiorina
Jim
Gilmore
John
Kasich
Marco
Rubio
Donald
Trump
Others
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[79] 3411 ± 1.1% February
8–14,
2016
4% 8% 2% 18% 1% 7% 14% 38% Don't Know 6%
No Answer 1%
Ipsos/Reuters[80] 513 ± 4.7% February
6–10,
2016
7% 11% 3% 23% 3% 2% 14% 35% Wouldn't vote 3%
Morning Consult[81] 4287 ± 1% February
3–7,
2016
6% 9% 3% 17% 2% 2% 15% 38% Undecided 8%
Someone else 1%
Rasmussen[82] 725 ± 4% February
3–4,
2016
4% 5% 3% 20% 3% 6% 21% 31% Undecided 3%
Someone else 3%
Quinnipiac University[83] 507 ± 4.4% February
2–4,
2016
3% 6% 3% 22% 2% 3% 19% 31% Undecided 9%
Someone else 1%
Won't vote 1%

Polls conducted before the Iowa caucuses

Poll source Sample
size
Margin of
error
Date(s)
administered
Jeb
Bush
Ben
Carson
Chris
Christie
Ted
Cruz
Carly
Fiorina
Jim
Gilmore
John
Kasich
Rand
Paul
Marco
Rubio
Rick
Santorum
Donald
Trump
Others
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[84] 2887 ± 2.7% February
1–7,
2016
3% 7% 3% 20% 2% 3% 2% 17% 35% Undecided 5%
No Answer 1%
Public Policy Polling[85] 531 ± 4.3% February
2–3,
2016
5% 11% 3% 21% 3% 1% 5% 5% 21% 0% 25% Undecided 1%
Morning Consult[86] 641 ± 3.9% February
2–3,
2016
5% 9% 3% 14% 3% 2% 12% 1% 38% Someone Else 5%
Don't Know/
No Opinion 8%
Poll source Sample
size
Margin of
error
Date(s)
administered
Jeb
Bush
Ben
Carson
Chris
Christie
Ted
Cruz
Carly
Fiorina
Jim
Gilmore
Mike
Huckabee
John
Kasich
Rand
Paul
Marco
Rubio
Rick
Santorum
Donald
Trump
Others
Ipsos/Reuters[87] 631 ± 4.4% January 30 –
February 3,
2016
7% 8% 5% 16% 2% 0% 2% 3% 2% 14% 0% 36% Wouldn't vote 4%
Morning Consult[88] 1491 ± 2.5% January 29 –
February 1,
2016
7% 9% 3% 12% 1% 1% 3% 2% 3% 8% 1% 41% Someone else 1%
Don't know 8%
NBC News/
SurveyMonkey[89]
3057 ± 2.6% January
25–31,
2016
3% 7% 3% 20% 2% 0% 2% 3% 3% 12% 1% 39% Don't know 4%
No answer 2%
YouGov/Economist[90] 481 ± 2.0% January
27–30,
2016
4% 4% 2% 18% 2% 1% 2% 5% 4% 14% 1% 43%
IBD/TIPP[91] 395 ± 5.0% January
22–27,
2016
5% 9% 1% 21% 2% 0% 1% 2% 4% 10% 1% 31% Other 2%
Undecided 12%
Refused 1%
Bloomberg/
Purple Strategies[92]
1020 ± 3.1% January
22–26,
2016
7% 9% 2% 12% 2% 0% 3% 4% 3% 14% 1% 34% Someone else 0%
None of the above 1%
Not sure 9%
Morning Consult[93] 1552 ± 2.0% January
21–24,
2016
7% 10% 3% 11% 1% 3% 2% 2% 9% 1% 40% Other 2%
Don't know 5%
CNN/ORC[94] 405 ± 3.0% January
21–24,
2016
5% 6% 4% 19% 2% 3% 1% 3% 8% 41%
ABC News/
Washington Post[95]
356 ± 3.5% January
21–24,
2016
5% 7% 4% 21% 3% 2% 2% 1% 11% 0% 37% Other 1%
None 1%
Not voting 5%
Public Religion
Research Institute[96]
381 ± 3.6% January
20–24,
2016
5% 14% 2% 14% 2% 1% 3% 3% 9% 31% Other 1%
Undecided 15%
NBC News/
SurveyMonkey[97]
2327 ± 1.3% January
18–24,
2016
4% 8% 3% 17% 2% 0% 1% 3% 3% 10% 0% 39% Undecided 9%
No Answer 1%
Fox News[98] 405 ± 3.0% January
18–21,
2016
4% 8% 3% 20% 1% 1% 2% 4% 2% 11% <1% 34% Don’t know 8%
Zogby[99] 294 ± 5.8% January
19–20,
2016
6% 4% 2% 13% 3% 0% 2% 3% 2% 8% 2% 45% Undecided 10%
Ipsos/Reuters[100] 588 ± 2.8% January
16–20,
2016
10% 11% 4% 12% 3% 1% 2% 2% 4% 8% 0% 36% Wouldn't vote 6%
YouGov/Economist[101] 476 ± 2.9% January
15–19,
2016
3% 7% 3% 19% 2% 0% 2% 2% 4% 14% 1% 38% Other 1%
Undecided 3%
Monmouth University[102] 385 ± 5.0% January
15–18,
2016
5% 8% 3% 17% 1% 0% 3% 3% 2% 11% 1% 36% No One 2%
Undecided 8%
Morning Consult[103] 1635 ± 2.0% January
14–17,
2016
7% 8% 3% 13% 2% 3% 2% 3% 9% 1% 39% Someone Else 2%
Don't Know 9%
NBC/SurveyMonkey[104] 3342 ± 2.3% January
11–17,
2016
4% 8% 3% 21% 3% 0% 2% 2% 3% 11% 0% 38% Don't know 5%
No Answer 1%
Gravis/
One America News[105]
1,693 ± 2.4% January 14,
2016
5% 6% 5% 21% 3% 1% 3% 2% 15% 1% 38%
NBC News/
Wall Street Journal[106]
400 ± 4.9% January
9–13,
2016
5% 12% 5% 20% 3% 1% 3% 3% 13% 33% None 1%
Undecided 1%
Ipsos/Reuters[107] 575 ± 2.8% January
9–13,
2016
10% 11% 4% 14% 3% 0% 3% 2% 3% 6% 1% 38% Wouldn't vote 5%
YouGov/Economist[108] 552 ± 4.6% January
9–11,
2016
5% 6% 4% 20% 3% 0% 3% 3% 3% 11% 2% 36% Other 2%
Undecided 3%
Gravis Marketing/
One America News[109]
832 ± 2% January
10,
2016
6% 5% 3% 20% 4% 2% 4% 2% 11% 0% 41% Don't know 5%
Morning Consult[110] 878 ± 2.0% January
8–10,
2016
5% 12% 4% 10% 1% 2% 2% 3% 9% 0% 42% Other 2%
Undecided 8%
CBS News/
New York Times[111]
442 N/A January
7–10,
2016
6% 6% 3% 19% 3% 4% 2% 1% 12% 0% 36% Undecided 7%
NBC/SurveyMonkey[112] 2825 ± 1.2% January
4–10,
2016
3% 9% 3% 20% 2% 0% 2% 2% 3% 11% 0% 38% Don't know 5%
IBD/TIPP[113] 389 ± 4% January
4–8,
2016
4% 8% 4% 18% 2% 1% 2% 3% 9% 34% Don't know 11%
Fox News[114] 423 ± 4.5% January
4–7,
2016
4% 10% 2% 20% 3% 0% 1% 2% 2% 13% 0% 35% Don’t know 6%
Others 2%
Ipsos/Reuters[115] 634 ± 4.4% January
2–6,
2016
8% 11% 3% 14% 1% 0% 2% 1% 3% 8% 0% 42% Wouldn't vote 7%
YouGov/Economist[116] 469 ± 4% December 31,
2015 – January
6, 2016
4% 6% 4% 19% 3% 0% 2% 4% 5% 13% 1% 36% Don't know 2%
NBC/SurveyMonkey[117] 949 ± 1.9% December 26,
2015 – January
3, 2016
6% 9% 4% 18% 3% 0% 2% 2% 2% 13% 1% 35% Don't know 6%
No Answer 1%

Polls conducted in 2015

Polls conducted in 2014

Polls conducted in 2013 and 2012

See also

General election polling
Democratic primary polling
Republican primary polling

References

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  355. "Christie Is Candidate GOP Voters Want Least As Their 2016 Nominee".
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