United States presidential election, 2016

United States presidential election, 2016
United States
November 8, 2016

538 members of the Electoral College
270 electoral votes needed to win
 
Nominee TBA Donald Trump
(presumptive)
Party Democratic Republican
Home state New York
Running mate TBA TBA

 
Nominee TBA TBA
Party Libertarian Green
Running mate TBA TBA

United States presidential election in Alabama, 2016 United States presidential election in Alaska, 2016 United States presidential election in Arizona, 2016 United States presidential election in Arkansas, 2016 United States presidential election in California, 2016 United States presidential election in Colorado, 2016 United States presidential election in Connecticut, 2016 United States presidential election in Delaware, 2016 United States presidential election in Florida, 2016 United States presidential election in Georgia, 2016 United States presidential election in Hawaii, 2016 United States presidential election in Idaho, 2016 United States presidential election in Illinois, 2016 United States presidential election in Indiana, 2016 United States presidential election in Iowa, 2016 United States presidential election in Kansas, 2016 United States presidential election in Kentucky, 2016 United States presidential election in Louisiana, 2016 United States presidential election in Maine, 2016 United States presidential election in Maryland, 2016 United States presidential election in Massachusetts, 2016 United States presidential election in Michigan, 2016 United States presidential election in Minnesota, 2016 United States presidential election in Mississippi, 2016 United States presidential election in Missouri, 2016 United States presidential election in Montana, 2016 United States presidential election in Nebraska, 2016 United States presidential election in Nevada, 2016 United States presidential election in New Hampshire, 2016 United States presidential election in New Jersey, 2016 United States presidential election in New Mexico, 2016 United States presidential election in New York, 2016 United States presidential election in North Carolina, 2016 United States presidential election in North Dakota, 2016 United States presidential election in Ohio, 2016 United States presidential election in Oklahoma, 2016 United States presidential election in Oregon, 2016 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania, 2016 United States presidential election in Rhode Island, 2016 United States presidential election in South Carolina, 2016 United States presidential election in South Dakota, 2016 United States presidential election in Tennessee, 2016 United States presidential election in Texas, 2016 United States presidential election in Utah, 2016 United States presidential election in Vermont, 2016 United States presidential election in Virginia, 2016 United States presidential election in Washington, 2016 United States presidential election in West Virginia, 2016 United States presidential election in Wisconsin, 2016 United States presidential election in Wyoming, 2016 United States presidential election in Delaware, 2016 United States presidential election in Maryland, 2016 United States presidential election in New Hampshire, 2016 United States presidential election in New Jersey, 2016 United States presidential election in Massachusetts, 2016 United States presidential election in Connecticut, 2016 United States presidential election in West Virginia, 2016 United States presidential election in Vermont, 2016 United States presidential election in Rhode Island, 2016Electoral College 2016.svg
The electoral map for the 2016 election, based on populations from the 2010 census

Incumbent President

Barack Obama
Democratic


The United States presidential election of 2016, scheduled for Tuesday, November 8, 2016, will be the 58th quadrennial U.S. presidential election. Voters will select presidential electors who in turn will elect a new president and vice president through the Electoral College. The term limit established in the Twenty-second Amendment to the United States Constitution prevents the incumbent President, Barack Obama, of the Democratic Party, from being elected to a third term.

The series of presidential primary elections and caucuses is taking place between February 1 and June 14, 2016, staggered among the 50 states, the District of Columbia and U.S. territories. This nominating process is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of delegates to a political party's nominating convention, who then in turn elect their party's presidential nominee. The 2016 Republican National Convention will take place from July 18 to July 21, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio. The 2016 Democratic National Convention will take place from July 25 to July 28, 2016 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

Businessman and reality television personality Donald Trump became the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party on May 3, 2016, after the suspensions of Ted Cruz and John Kasich's campaigns, respectively, and his win in the Indiana primary.[1] He is expected to face the as of yet undetermined nominee of the Democratic Party in the general election, presumably either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders.

Background

Article Two of the United States Constitution provides that for a person to be elected and serve as President of the United States, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old, and a resident of the United States for a period of no less than 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various Political parties of the United States, in which case each party devises a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The general election in November is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors in turn directly elect the President and Vice President.

The incumbent, President Barack Obama, a Democrat and former U.S. Senator from Illinois, is ineligible to seek reelection to a third term due to restrictions of the Twenty-second Amendment; in accordance with Section 1 of the Twentieth Amendment, his term expires at noon on January 20, 2017. In the 2008 election, Obama was elected president, defeating the Republican nominee, Senator John McCain of Arizona, receiving 52.9% of the popular vote and 68% of the electoral vote.[2][3] Obama succeeded two-term Republican President George W. Bush, the former Governor of Texas. Since the end of 2009, polling companies such as Gallup have found Obama's approval ratings to be between 40 and 50 percent.[4][5] Analysts such as Larry Sabato have noted that Obama's approval ratings could impact the 2016 campaign, helping or hurting the Democratic candidate.[6][7] If Obama and Vice President Joe Biden serve out the remainder of their respective terms, the voters will elect the 45th President and 48th Vice President of the United States, respectively.

2010 midterm elections

In the 2010 midterm elections, the Democratic Party suffered significant losses in Congress; the Republicans gained 63 seats in the House of Representatives (thus taking control of the chamber), and six seats in the Senate, though short of achieving a majority. As a result of the Republicans' recapture of the House, John Boehner became the 53rd Speaker of the House of Representatives. This made Obama the first President in 16 years to lose the House of Representatives in the first half of his first term, in an election that was characterized by the economy's slow recovery, and the rise of the Tea Party movement.[8]

2012 presidential election

In the 2012 presidential election, incumbent President Barack Obama defeated former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, with 51.1% of the popular vote and 332 (or 61.7%) of 538 electoral votes.[9] Meanwhile, Republicans retained their majority of seats in the House of Representatives despite minor losses, while Democrats increased their majority in the Senate.[3]

Speculation about the 2016 campaign began almost immediately following the 2012 campaign, with New York magazine declaring the race had begun in an article published on November 8, 2012, two days after the 2012 election.[10] On the same day, Politico released an article predicting the 2016 general election may be between Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush, while a New York Times article named Chris Christie and Cory Booker as potential candidates.[11][12]

2014 midterm elections

In the 2014 midterm elections, voter turnout was the lowest seen in 70 years, with only 34.4% of eligible voters voting.[13] As a result of the election, the Republicans retained control of the House of Representatives, increasing their majority to its largest level since 1928.[14] Republicans also gained a majority in the Senate.

Democratic Party

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who also served in the U.S. Senate and was the First Lady of the United States, became the first Democrat to announce a major candidacy for the presidency. Clinton made the announcement on April 12, 2015, via a video message.[15] While Nationwide opinion polls in 2015 indicated that Clinton is the front-runner for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination, she faces challenges from Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.[16] Sanders became the second candidate when he made a formal announcement on April 30 that he was running for the Democratic nomination.[17] September 2015 polling numbers indicated a narrowing gap between Clinton and Sanders.[16][18][19] Former Governor of Maryland Martin O'Malley was the third candidate to enter the race, which he did on May 30, 2015.[20] Lincoln Chafee, former Independent Governor and Republican Senator of Rhode Island, announced his candidacy on June 3, 2015.[21][22] Former Virginia Senator Jim Webb announced his candidacy on July 2, 2015.[23] Harvard law professor Lawrence Lessig announced his candidacy on September 6, 2015.[24]

On October 20, Jim Webb announced his withdrawal from the Democratic primaries, and explored a potential Independent run.[25] Former U.S. Senator from Delaware and incumbent Vice President Joe Biden opted not to run on October 21, ending months of speculation, stating "While I will not be a candidate, I will not be silent."[26][27] Lincoln Chafee withdrew on October 23, stating that he hoped for "an end to the endless wars and the beginning of a new era for the United States and humanity."[28] Lawrence Lessig withdrew on November 2, after failing to qualify for the second officially-sanctioned DNC debate after adoption of a rule change negated polls which before might have necessitated his inclusion in said debate.[29]

In an extremely close contest on February 1, 2016, Hillary Clinton won the Iowa caucuses by a margin of less than one percent. Winning no delegates in the contest, Martin O'Malley withdrew from the presidential race that day. On February 9, Bernie Sanders won the New Hampshire primary with 60% of the vote. In the remaining two February contests, Clinton won with 53% of the vote in the Nevada caucuses and scored a decisive victory with 73% of the vote in the South Carolina primary.[30][31]

On March 1, eleven states participated in the "Super Tuesday" primaries, with Clinton winning Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia for a total of 504 pledged delegates, while Sanders won Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma, and Vermont to garner a total of 340 delegates by the end of the night. On the weekend of March 5–6, Sanders racked up victories in Kansas, Nebraska, and Maine with 15 to 30 point margins, while Clinton won the Louisiana primary with 71% of the vote. On March 8, Sanders scored a stunning upset in the Michigan primary, winning by a small margin of 1.5% percent and outperforming polls by over 19 points, while Clinton won 83% of the vote in Mississippi.[32] On March 15, Clinton swept five primaries in Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio. Between March 22 and April 9, Sanders won 6 caucuses in Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, and Wyoming and the Wisconsin primary, while Clinton won the Arizona primary. By this stage, Clinton had won 1,305 pledged delegates to Sanders' 1,099.[33]

On April 19, Clinton won the New York primary with 58% of the vote. On April 26, in the "Acela primary", she won contests in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, and Pennsylvania while Sanders won in Rhode Island. On May 3, Sanders pulled off a surprise win in the Indiana primary with a 5-point margin of victory.[34]

Of the 77% of pledged delegates allocated in primaries and caucuses so far, Clinton has won 55% to Sanders' 45%.[35] Out of the 715 unpledged delegates or "superdelegates" who will vote in the convention in June, Clinton has received endorsements from 498 (70%), while Sanders has received 41 (5%).[35]

Active candidates

Candidates below have received delegates in various primaries and caucuses.
Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
67th United States Secretary of State
(2009–2013)
U.S. Senator from Vermont
(2007–present)
Campaign Campaign
[36][37][38] [39][40]

Withdrawn candidates

Republican Party

United States Senator Ted Cruz from Texas became the first major candidate to announce a campaign in the 2016 election, which he did on March 23, 2015.[44][45] Kentucky Senator Rand Paul became the next candidate to announce on April 7, 2015.[46] Marco Rubio, Senator of Florida, became the next candidate, announcing on April 13.[47][48] Both neurosurgeon Ben Carson and businesswoman Carly Fiorina announced their candidacies on May 4, 2015.[49] Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas and 2008 presidential candidate, announced his candidacy the next day.[50] 2012 presidential candidate and former Senator from Pennsylvania, Rick Santorum, announced his campaign on May 27.[51] George Pataki, a former New York Governor, was the next to announce, doing so on May 28, 2015.[52] Lindsey Graham, Senator from South Carolina, announced he was running on June 1.[53] Former Governor of Texas, Rick Perry, who also ran in 2012, announced he was running again on June 4.[54] Former Governor of Florida, Jeb Bush, joined the race on June 15.[55] Real estate developer and reality TV host, Donald Trump, announced he was running on June 16.[56] Bobby Jindal, outgoing Governor of Louisiana, announced his campaign on June 24.[57] Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey announced he was running on June 30.[58] Governor of Wisconsin Scott Walker announced his candidacy on July 13.[59] Ohio Governor John Kasich announced his run on July 21.[60] Former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore was the last Republican candidate to announce his candidacy, which he did on July 30, 2015.[61]

On September 11, 2015, Rick Perry withdrew from the race. Scott Walker withdrew on September 21. Bobby Jindal withdrew his candidacy on November 17. Lindsey Graham withdrew from the race on December 21. George Pataki withdrew from the race on December 29. Mike Huckabee withdrew on February 1. Rick Santorum and Rand Paul both dropped out on February 3.

Ted Cruz won the Iowa caucuses on February 1, with Donald Trump taking second place, and Marco Rubio finishing third. Trump went on to win the remainder of the February contests: primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina, and the Nevada caucuses. Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina both withdrew from the race on February 10, after failing to receive high numbers in the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire primary. Jim Gilmore withdrew from the race on February 12.[62] Jeb Bush withdrew from the race on February 20, after having received low voter turnout in the Iowa caucus and South Carolina primary.

On March 1, eleven states participated in the "Super Tuesday" primaries. While Senator Rubio attained his first primary season victory in the Minnesota caucus[63] and Senator Cruz won Alaska, Oklahoma, and his home state of Texas, Donald Trump managed first place in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Vermont, and Virginia for a total of 237 delegates by the end of the night, cementing his status as the frontrunner for the nomination.[64][65] Ben Carson suspended his campaign on March 4, after having poor showings on Super Tuesday.[66][67] On March 6, Cruz won Kansas and Maine, while Trump won Louisiana and Kentucky.[68] Rubio won the Puerto Rico primary on March 6.[63] On March 8, Trump won Michigan, Mississippi and Hawaii while Cruz won Idaho.[69] On March 16, Rubio won in Washington, D.C. while Cruz won in Wyoming. On March 15, Kasich won his first contest in his home state of Ohio, while Trump won in Florida, Illinois, Missouri, and North Carolina. Having lost his home state of Florida, Marco Rubio suspended his campaign, leaving a three-person race between Trump, Cruz, and Kasich.[70]

On March 22, Trump won in Arizona and Cruz won in Utah. Cruz added another key victory in the Wisconsin primary on April 5. Trump won the New York primary on April 19, receiving 89 delegates in one contest. His winning streak continued with a sweep of Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island in the "Acela primary" on April 26. After a loss in the Indiana primary on May 3, Ted Cruz suspended his campaign, and RNC Chairman Reince Priebus declared Trump the presumptive nominee.[71][72] The next day, John Kasich dropped out of the race, leaving Trump as the only major candidate still running for the Republican Party's nomination.[73]

Presumptive nominee

Donald Trump
Chairman of
The Trump Organization
(1971–present)
Campaign
[74][75][76]

Withdrawn candidates

Major third parties

Parties in this section have obtained ballot access in enough states to theoretically obtain the minimum number of electoral votes needed to win the election. Unless otherwise specified, individuals included in this section have taken one or more of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy for the presidential nomination of a third party; formally announced intention to run as an independent candidate and obtained enough ballot access to win the election; filed as a third party or non-affiliated candidate with the FEC (for other than exploratory purposes). Candidates are listed alphabetically by party and then likewise by surname.

Green Party

Ballot Access to 296 Electoral Votes: Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Washington D.C., Florida, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas, West Virginia, Wisconsin[118]

Candidates included in this section have received one or more delegates in various primaries and caucuses.
Darryl Cherney Sedinam Curry William Kreml Kent Mesplay Jill Stein
29th People's National Convention
organizer from California[119]
Distinguished Professor Emeritus,
University of South Carolina[119]
Inspector at the Air Pollution Control
District of San Diego County
(2001–2015)[119]
Town Meeting member
from Lexington, Massachusetts
(2005–2011)[119]
Campaign

Libertarian Party

Ballot Access to 332 electoral votes: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming[120]

Gary Johnson John McAfee Austin Petersen
29th
Governor of New Mexico
(1995–2003)
Businessman and computer scientist
from Tennessee
Founder and CEO of Stonegait, LLC
from Missouri
Campaign Campaign
[121][122]
[123][124]
[125][126]

Other third parties and independents

Parties and candidates in this section have attained ballot access in one or more states but have yet to obtain access to the minimum number of electoral votes needed to theoretically win the election. Unless otherwise specified, individuals included in this section have taken one or more of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy for the presidential nomination of a minor party; formally announced intention to run as an independent candidate; filed as a minor party or non-affiliated candidate with the FEC (for other than exploratory purposes). Candidates are listed by party and then alphabetically by surname.

America's Party

Further information: American Independent Party

Ballot Access to 84 electoral votes: California, Florida[127][128]

Constitution Party

Ballot Access to 136 electoral votes: Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah, Wisconsin, Wyoming[130]

Independent American Party

Further information: Independent American Party

Ballot Access to 18 Electoral Votes: New Mexico, Oregon, Utah[133]

Nutrition Party

Further information: Nutrition Party

Ballot Access to 9 electoral votes: Colorado[134]

Party for Socialism and Liberation

Ballot Access to 29 electoral votes: Florida[137]

Peace and Freedom Party

Further information: Peace and Freedom Party

Ballot Access to 84 electoral votes: California, Florida[139][140]

Prohibition Party

Further information: Prohibition Party

Ballot Access to 21 electoral votes: Arkansas, Colorado, Mississippi[134][141]

Socialist Party USA

Further information: Socialist Party USA

Ballot Access to 18 electoral votes: Ohio[144]


Veterans Party of America

Further information: Veterans Party of America

Ballot Access to 6 electoral votes: Mississippi[147]

Potential battleground states

Further information: Swing state

In every state except Maine and Nebraska, the winner of the popular vote in the state wins all of the electoral votes of the state (although state legislatures can, by law, change how electors are elected).[150] Maine and Nebraska use the "congressional district method", in which the winner of the state receives two electoral votes and candidates receive additional electoral votes for each congressional district that they win. Recent presidential campaigns have generally focused their resources on a relatively small number of competitive states.[151][152]

Potential battleground states include Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida.[153][154] Other potential Democratic targets include Nebraska's second congressional district, Missouri, Arizona, Georgia, and Texas.[153][154] Meanwhile, Republicans may also target Maine's second congressional district, Oregon, New Mexico, Minnesota, and New Jersey.[154][155] Other states may also become competitive if the close races of 2016 differ from the close races of the 2012 election, or if 2016 becomes a landslide election. Both major parties might decide to target the home states of their nominees or that of their running mates if they are from a swing state or have high favorability in the state or region.

Party conventions

Philadelphia
Cleveland
Salt Lake City
Orlando
Houston
Sites of the 2016 national party conventions.
Democratic Party
Republican Party
Green Party
Libertarian Party
Constitution Party

Debates

Primary election debates

Main articles:

General election debates

Wright State University
Dayton, OH
Longwood University
Farmville, VA
Washington University
St. Louis, MO
University of Nevada
Las Vegas
Sites of the 2016 general election debates

The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD), a non-profit bipartisan organization controlled by the Republican and Democratic parties, will again be hosting debates between the Democratic and Republican nominees. The three locations chosen to host the presidential debates, and the one location selected to host the vice presidential debate, were announced on September 23, 2015.[163][164][165]

Debates among candidates for the 2016 U.S. presidential election
No. Date Time Host City Moderator Participants
P1
   September 26, 2016   
TBA
Wright State University
Dayton, Ohio
TBA
TBD
VP
October 4, 2016
TBA
Longwood University
Farmville, Virginia
TBA
TBD
P2
October 9, 2016
TBA
   Washington University in St. Louis   
St. Louis, Missouri
TBA
TBD
P3
October 19, 2016
TBA
University of Nevada, Las Vegas
Las Vegas, Nevada
TBA
TBD
Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York, will serve as the backup debate location.[165]
       = Sponsored by the Commission on Presidential Debates

Free & Equal Elections Foundation plans to host a debate between the nominees of the minor parties that have enough ballot access to mathematically obtain the minimum electoral votes needed to win the election, but are not included in the CPD debates.[166] The planned location for this debate is the Belasco Theater in Los Angeles, California. As of May 2016, the following parties qualify for this debate:

Debate lawsuit

On June 22, 2015, the advocacy group Level the Playing Field, along with Peter Ackerman, the Green Party, and the Libertarian National Committee, filed a complaint for declaratory and injunctive relief against the Federal Election Commission in the United States District Court for the District of Columbia alleging that its failure to uphold debate fairness laws and address the corruption of the Commission on Presidential Debates after multiple unresolved requests to do so intentionally excluded third parties from the election process.[167][168] The FEC took up the original complaint in a July 16 meeting, with a motion to open rulemaking failing 2–4. Commissioners Ann Ravel (D) and Ellen Weintraub (D) voted aye, and Commissioners Lee Goodman (R), Caroline Hunter (R), Matthew Petersen (R), and Steven Walther (D) voted no.[169][170]

Because the original complaint became moot as a result of that meeting, the plaintiffs filed another complaint on August 27,[171] amending it on October 22.[172] The FEC responded to that complaint on November 9, denying the vast majority of the claims made without proving their lack of validity.[173]

A motion for the courts to grant leave to amend the complaint further was filed on December 30,[174] and the second amended complaint was submitted on January 5, 2016.[175] At this point, Mitt Romney filed a motion to dismiss the lawsuit on behalf of himself and Barack Obama.[176] The FEC, on January 19, again denied the vast majority of the claims without proving their lack of validity.[177]

Opinion polling

General election polling
Democratic primary polling
Republican primary polling
Libertarian primary polling

See also

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