United States presidential election in New Mexico, 2004

United States presidential election in New Mexico, 2004
New Mexico
November 2, 2004
 
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 5 0
Popular vote 376,930 370,942
Percentage 49.84% 49.05%

County Results
  Kerry—70-80%
  Kerry—60-70%
  Kerry—50-60%
  Bush—50-60%
  Bush—60-70%
  Bush—70-80%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in New Mexico took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 5 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

New Mexico was won by incumbent Republican President George W. Bush by a 0.79% margin of victory. Bush took 49.84% of the vote, narrowly defeating Democratic Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, who took 49.05%. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered it as a swing state. The Land of Enchantment is a very diverse state, with 42% of the state Hispanic and another 42% of the electorate non-Hispanic white. Exit polling showed that incumbent George W. Bush performed better among Hispanic Americans in 2004 than in 2000. This may be one of the reasons why Bush won and swung the state from 2000, when Al Gore had narrowly won the state. New Mexico was one of the only three states which swung between 2000 and 2004 (Iowa also flipped from Gore to Bush, while New Hampshire flipped from Bush to Kerry), although Bush only won with a margin of less than 1% of the vote.

This was the last election during which New Mexico was seriously contested as a swing state. The Republican Party's collapsing support among Hispanics led to the state's being classified as a blue state, as it voted Democratic by double-digit margins in 2008 and 2012.

Caucuses

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Slight Democratic
  2. Associated Press: Toss Up
  3. CNN: Bush
  4. Cook Political Report: Toss Up
  5. Newsweek: Toss Up
  6. New York Times: Toss Up
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Toss Up
  8. Research 2000: Lean Kerry
  9. Washington Post: Battleground
  10. Washington Times: Battleground
  11. Zogby International: Kerry
  12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

Polls showed Kerry in the lead for most of the general election. However, Bush caught up in the last month. The last 3 polling average showed Bush leading with 48% to 46%, which meant that the undecided voters would decide the election.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $869,407.[3] Kerry raised $1,289,134.[4]

Advertising and visits

Because of the closeness of the prior election, New Mexico was largely considered as a swing state. Over the general election, Bush visited the state 5 times and Kerry visited 8 times.[5] Nearly $2 million were spent by both campaigns combined in television advertisements each week.[6]

Analysis

Although Bill Richardson, the Democratic governor, is very popular, the state, who voted for Al Gore by 300 votes in 2000, chose George W. Bush in 2004, by 6,000 votes. The only county Bush won in 2004 that he didn't win in 2000 was Colfax County. Half of the population in this state is hispanic, thus Bush was able to appeal to over 40% of the hispanic vote because of his liberal position on illegal immigration.

Results

United States presidential election in NM, 2004
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican George W. Bush Richard Cheney 376,930 49.84% 5
Democratic John Kerry John Edwards 370,942 49.05% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Peter Camejo 4,053 0.54% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik Richard Campagna 2,382 0.31% 0
Green David Cobb Pat LaMarche 1,226 0.16% 0
Constitution Michael Peroutka Chuck Baldwin 771 0.10% 0
Totals 756,304 100% 5
Voter Turnout (Voting age/Registered) 55%/68%

Results breakdown

By county

County Kerry% Kerry# Bush% Bush# Others% Others#
Lea 20.1% 3,646 79.4% 14,430 0.6% 105
Union 21.9% 411 77.3% 1,454 0.9% 16
Curry 24.8% 3,541 74.5% 10,649 0.7% 96
Catron 27.6% 551 71.6% 1,427 0.8% 15
De Baca 28.3% 281 71.1% 706 0.6% 6
Roosevelt 29.1% 2,082 69.9% 4,997 0.9% 65
Chaves 31.0% 6,726 68.1% 14,773 0.9% 206
Otero 31.0% 6,433 67.7% 14,066 1.3% 265
Lincoln 31.3% 2,822 67.3% 6,070 1.4% 122
San Juan 33.0% 14,843 65.6% 29,525 1.4% 638
Eddy 33.9% 6,880 65.5% 13,268 0.6% 122
Quay 34.5% 1,422 64.6% 2,661 0.8% 34
Torrance 36.7% 2,386 61.9% 4,026 1.5% 95
Sierra 37.3% 1,926 61.3% 3,162 1.3% 69
Harding 40.2% 259 59.0% 380 0.8% 5
Valencia 43.3% 11,270 55.6% 14,474 1.0% 268
Hidalgo 43.8% 861 55.0% 1,081 1.1% 22
Luna 44.0% 3,340 54.8% 4,164 1.2% 89
Los Alamos 46.5% 5,206 51.9% 5,810 1.6% 181
Colfax 47.3% 2,824 51.6% 3,082 1.0% 62
Sandoval 48.1% 21,421 50.8% 22,628 1.1% 492
Doña Ana 51.3% 31,762 47.7% 29,548 1.0% 650
Bernalillo 51.5% 132,252 47.3% 121,454 1.2% 3,105
Socorro 51.3% 4,025 47.1% 3,696 1.7% 130
Cibola 52.3% 3,913 46.4% 3,477 1.3% 97
Grant 53.0% 7,095 45.8% 6,135 1.2% 162
Guadalupe 59.1% 1,340 40.3% 914 0.6% 13
McKinley 63.3% 13,051 35.6% 7,351 1.1% 221
Rio Arriba 65.0% 9,753 34.3% 5,149 0.6% 97
Mora 66.4% 1,876 32.8% 928 0.8% 22
Santa Fe 71.1% 47,074 27.9% 18,466 1.0% 660
San Miguel 71.7% 8,683 27.3% 3,313 1.0% 120
Taos 74.1% 10,987 24.7% 3,666 1.2% 182

By congressional district

Kerry won 2 of 3 congressional districts.[7]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 48% 51% Heather Wilson
2nd 58% 41% Steve Pearce
3rd 45% 54% Tom Udall

Electors

NM voters cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Iowa has 5 electors because it has 3 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 5 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 5 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia meet in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All were pledged to and voted for Bush/Cheney.[8]

  1. Rod Adair
  2. Ruth Kelly
  3. Rick Lopez
  4. Lou Melvin
  5. Rodney Montoya

References

  1. ↑ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW
  2. ↑ http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=35
  3. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04
  4. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04
  5. ↑ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/showdown/NM/
  6. ↑ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/
  7. ↑ http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/
  8. ↑ http://www.sos.state.nm.us/Election/04Primary/Presidential04.htm

See also

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