Finnish parliamentary election, 2015

Finnish parliamentary election, 2015

19 April 2015

All 200 seats to the Parliament 101 seats needed for a majority Turnout 70.1%   First party Second party Third party   Leader Juha Sipilä Timo Soini Alexander Stubb Party Centre Finns National Coalition Leader since 2012 1997 2014 Last election 35 seats, 15.8% 39 seats, 19.1% 44 seats, 20.4% Seats won 49 38 37 Seat change 14 1 7 Popular vote 626,218 524,054 540,212 Percentage 21.1% 17.7% 18.2% Swing 5.3% 1.4% 2.2%   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Antti Rinne Ville Niinistö Paavo Arhinmäki Party Social Democratic Green League Left Alliance Leader since 2014 2011 2009 Last election 42 seats, 19.1% 10 seats, 7.3% 14 seats, 8.1% Seats won 34 15 12 Seat change 8 5 2 Popular vote 490,102 253,102 211,702 Percentage 16.5% 8.5% 7.1% Swing 2.6% 1.3% 1.0%   Seventh party Eighth party Ninth party   Leader Carl Haglund Päivi Räsänen Mats Löfström Party Swedish People's Christian Democrat Åland Coalition Leader since 2012 2004 Last election 9 seats, 4.3% 6 seats, 4.0% 1 seat, 0.3% Seats won 9 5 1 Seat change 0 1 0 Popular vote 144,802 105,134 10,910 Percentage 4.9% 3.5% 0.4% Swing 0.6% 0.5% 0.0%

Prime Minister before election Alexander Stubb National Coalition Elected Prime Minister Juha Sipilä Centre

The 2015 Finnish parliamentary election was held on 19 April 2015,^[1] with advance voting from 8 to 14 April.^[2] The 200 members of the Finnish Parliament were elected with the proportional D'Hondt method.

There were 4,463,333 people entitled to vote in Finland and abroad.^[3]

Background

Previous government parties

The incumbent government was formed by a four party coalition, composed of the National Coalition Party, Social Democratic Party, Swedish People's Party and the Christian Democrats as well as the MP for Åland. Left Alliance and the Green League were initially also part of the governing coalition, but both left in 2014.

On 22 June 2011, the parliament elected Jyrki Katainen as prime minister by a vote of 118–72; two Left Alliance MPs voted against Katainen, for which they were formally reprimanded by the Left Alliance parliamentary group. They were subsequently expelled from the group, reducing the government majority from 126 MPs to 124. In March 2014 the Left Alliance announced that it was leaving the cabinet, citing the party's opposition to budget cuts in social welfare programs, which had been agreed to by the other five parties.^[4] This reduced the government's majority to 112 MPs.

In April 2014 Jyrki Katainen announced that he would not seek another term as the chairman of the National Coalition Party. The NCP chose Alexander Stubb as its new chairman in June, and he subsequently became the new Prime Minister. In September 2014 the Green League announced that it was leaving the cabinet. The Greens were opposed to the other governing parties' decision to grant Fennovoima a licence for building a nuclear power plant in Pyhäjoki.^[5] The Greens' departure cut the government's majority to 102 MPs (including the Speaker of the Parliament, who does not vote).^[6]

Changes to the electoral districts

Electoral districts in the 2015 election

In 2013 the parliament decided to merge certain electoral districts to create larger districts: the electoral districts of Northern Savonia and North Karelia have been merged into a new district called Savonia-Karelia, while the electoral districts of Kymi and Southern Savonia have been merged into a new district called South-Eastern Finland.^[7]

Electoral district	Seats
01 Helsinki	22
02 Uusimaa	35
03 Finland Proper	17
04 Satakunta	8
05 Åland	1
06 Tavastia	14
07 Pirkanmaa	19
08 South-East Finland	17
09 Savonia-Karelia	16
10 Vaasa	16
11 Central Finland	10
12 Oulu	18
13 Lapland	7

Opinion polling

Taloustutkimus opinion polling since 2011 election.

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each poll is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The table uses the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. However, if that date is unknown, the date of publication will be given instead.

Date	Polling Firm	KOK	SDP	PS	KESK	VAS	VIHR	SFP	KD	Others	Lead
23 Mar–15 Apr	Taloustutkimus	16.9	15.1	16.7	24.0	8.3	8.8	4.6	3.5	2.0	7.1
8 Apr–12 Apr	TNS Gallup	17.0	17.0	16.2	23.0	8.5	8.1	4.6	3.7	1.9	6.0
27 Mar–1 Apr	Tietoykkönen	16.2	17.0	16.6	23.5	8.4	8.1	4.3	4.1	1.8	6.5
25 Feb–19 Mar	Taloustutkimus	16.1	16.2	14.6	24.9	8.5	8.9	4.5	3.9	2.4	8.7
16 Feb–12 Mar	TNS Gallup	16.8	16.9	15.2	24.7	8.4	8.6	4.2	3.3	1.9	7.8
5–11 Mar	Tietoykkönen	17.3	16.4	16.8	23.5	8.3	8.2	4.1	3.6	1.7	6.2
2–24 Feb	Taloustutkimus	16.2	16.8	15.4	24.9	8.8	8.8	4.0	3.3	1.8	8.1
19 Jan–12 Feb	TNS Gallup	16.9	17.1	14.1	26.2	8.5	8.3	4.2	3.2	1.5	9.3
28 Jan-3 Feb	Tietoykkönen	17.8	16.5	15.3	25.4	8.2	7.8	4.0	3.6	1.4	7.6
29 Dec–27 Jan	Taloustutkimus	16.3	17.2	14.8	26.0	8.2	8.3	4.2	3.5	1.5	8.8
15 Dec–15 Jan	TNS Gallup	17.2	16.5	14.5	25.9	8.8	8.4	4.1	3.3	1.3	8.7
2014
3–27 Dec	Taloustutkimus	17.1	15.3	13.3	26.8	8.9	9.4	3.7	3.9	1.7	9.7
17 Nov-12 Dec	TNS Gallup	16.7	16.9	14.2	26.1	8.1	8.9	4.2	3.5	1.4	9.2
3 Nov-2 Dec	Taloustutkimus	17.3	16.1	14.3	26.7	8.9	8.3	4.0	3.3	1.1	9.4
23 Nov-26 Nov	Tietoykkönen	17.7	15.8	15.7	26.6	8.4	8.1	3.1	2.9	1.7	8.9
21 Nov	TNS Gallup	17.4	16.4	16.2	24.5	8.0	8.3	4.3	3.6	1.3	7.1
30 Sep-28 Oct	Taloustutkimus	19.4	15.2	15.1	25.5	7.9	9.1	3.6	2.7	1.5	6.1
22 Sep-16 Oct	TNS Gallup	19.4	16.2	16.1	22.3	8.7	8.2	4.2	3.6	1.3	2.9
10 Oct-16 Oct	Tietoykkönen	18.5	15.1	16.5	23.4	8.0	8.9	4.2	3.8	1.6	4.9
2 Sep-25 Sep	Taloustutkimus	20.4	15.2	16.6	23.3	8.3	7.8	4.6	3.0	0.8	2.9
21 Aug-26 Aug	Tietoykkönen	20.8	14.7	16.0	21.3	9.9	8.4	4.1	3.1	1.7	0.5
5 Aug-28 Aug	Taloustutkimus	21.2	15.8	17.1	21.3	8.2	8.1	3.7	3.4	1.2	0.1
15 Jul–12 Aug	TNS Gallup	22.1	14.9	15.9	19.9	9.3	8.7	4.5	3.4	1.3	2.2
1 Jul-30 Jul	Taloustutkimus	21.8	13.8	16.4	20.9	9.3	8.8	3.9	3.4	1.7	0.9
2 Jun–25 Jun	Taloustutkimus	20.3	14.8	17.9	19.5	9.3	9.0	4.2	3.8	1.2	0.8
26 May–11 Jun	TNS Gallup	20.5	14.9	17.2	20.3	9.0	8.5	4.4	3.9	1.3	0.2
5–27 May	Taloustutkimus	20.1	15.0	18.9	19.5	8.5	9.3	4.4	3.2	1.1	0.6
2–29 Apr	Taloustutkimus	20.2	15.8	17.6	21.0	8.8	8.2	4.1	3.7	0.6	0.8
5 Mar–1 Apr	Taloustutkimus	20.3	15.5	17.8	20.9	7.7	8.7	4.3	3.5	1.3	0.6
25 Feb–22 Mar	TNS Gallup	19.5	16.3	17.2	21.5	7.5	8.9	4.3	3.5	1.3	2.0
3 Feb–4 Mar	Taloustutkimus	19.4	15.5	16.9	22.8	7.7	9.0	4.2	3.4	1.1	3.4
13 Jan–8 Feb	TNS Gallup	19.2	16.2	17.0	22.4	7.6	8.5	4.2	3.5	1.4	3.2
1–28 Jan	Taloustutkimus	18.7	15.5	17.8	23.6	7.5	8.1	3.8	3.7	1.3	4.9
2013
27 Nov–23 Dec	Taloustutkimus	19.1	15.9	17.4	23.9	7.0	8.2	3.8	3.1	1.6	4.8
19 Dec	TNS Gallup	18.0	16.7	17.5	23.0	7.9	7.9	4.4	3.3	1.3	5.0
30 Oct–26 Nov	Taloustutkimus	18.3	15.4	17.2	24.1	7.4	9.0	4.1	3.2	1.3	5.8
7–29 Oct	Taloustutkimus	18.1	16.9	17.4	23.2	7.6	8.4	3.9	3.5	1.0	5.1
23 Oct	TNS Gallup	18.2	16.2	18.9	21.8	7.7	8.3	4.4	3.4	1.1	2.9
9 Sep–2 Oct	Taloustutkimus	18.4	15.3	18.8	22.6	7.2	9.3	3.9	3.3	1.2	3.8
6 Aug–4 Sep	Taloustutkimus	18.3	15.0	19.3	23.8	7.7	8.4	3.8	2.8	0.9	4.5
15 Aug	TNS Gallup	18.7	16.3	18.7	21.9	7.3	8.2	4.2	3.5	1.2	3.2
2–31 Jul	Taloustutkimus	18.8	15.6	18.0	22.8	7.2	8.4	4.4	3.6	1.2	4.0
29 May–26 Jun	Taloustutkimus	18.4	16.1	18.6	21.5	7.5	9.3	4.0	3.5	1.1	2.9
29 Apr–28 May	Taloustutkimus	19.2	16.5	17.4	21.7	8.0	8.0	4.1	3.8	1.3	2.5
4–25 Apr	Taloustutkimus	19.2	16.2	18.6	19.4	9.0	9.1	4.2	3.2	1.1	0.2
11–27 Mar	Taloustutkimus	19.8	18.0	18.4	18.3	8.5	9.0	4.1	3.1	0.8	1.4
11 Feb–7 Mar	Taloustutkimus	20.8	18.2	18.1	17.2	8.2	8.7	4.3	3.2	1.3	2.6
7–29 Jan	Taloustutkimus	21.9	18.7	17.7	17.1	7.9	8.9	3.9	3.1	0.8	3.2
2012
3–27 Dec	Taloustutkimus	21.0	17.9	18.0	17.8	7.9	8.7	4.3	3.4	1.0	3.0
1–24 Oct	Taloustutkimus	20.9	18.5	15.3	17.3	8.5	9.1	3.9	4.0	2.5	2.4
3–19 Sep	Taloustutkimus	21.5	19.9	17.2	15.9	7.8	8.9	4.3	3.2	1.3	1.6
7–29 Aug	Taloustutkimus	22.7	18.7	15.8	16.6	8.2	9.4	4.3	3.2	1.1	4.0
3 Jul–1 Aug	Taloustutkimus	20.8	20.3	17.5	15.5	8.0	8.5	4.4	3.7	1.3	0.5
4–27 Jun	Taloustutkimus	21.6	20.8	15.6	16.5	7.5	8.2	3.9	3.7	2.2	0.8
7–31 May	Taloustutkimus	21.7	20.5	15.9	16.7	7.7	8.8	3.7	3.6	1.4	1.2
3–26 Apr	Taloustutkimus	22.6	19.1	14.1	16.4	8.9	10.4	3.7	3.2	1.6	3.5
5–29 Mar	Taloustutkimus	22.6	17.3	15.8	16.7	8.1	11.0	3.5	3.7	1.3	5.3
30 Jan–23 Feb	Taloustutkimus	22.1	16.0	16.1	17.7	7.9	11.4	4.1	3.5	1.3	4.4
2–26 Jan	Taloustutkimus	23.1	16.3	17.4	15.6	9.0	9.6	3.8	4.1	1.1	5.8
2011
7–28 Dec	Taloustutkimus	22.7	16.4	19.9	16.2	8.5	7.6	3.9	3.6	1.2	2.8
9–17 Nov	Taloustutkimus	24.3	17.6	19.9	13.9	7.0	7.9	4.1	3.9	1.4	4.4
10 Oct–3 Nov	Taloustutkimus	24.4	17.1	21.4	13.1	7.4	7.7	4.1	3.7	1.1	3.0
15 Aug–13 Sep	Taloustutkimus	23.7	18.6	21.1	12.6	8.0	7.4	3.8	3.6	1.3	2.6
5 Jul–10 Aug	Taloustutkimus	21.4	19.8	22.0	13.2	7.6	7.4	3.9	3.4	1.3	0.6
6–29 Jun	Taloustutkimus	21.1	18.1	23.0	13.8	8.0	7.2	4.1	3.1	1.6	1.9
9–31 May	Taloustutkimus	21.5	18.8	20.6	14.3	7.7	7.6	4.3	3.8	1.4	0.9
17 Apr 2011	Election Results	20.4	19.1	19.1	15.8	8.1	7.3	4.3	4.0	2.3	1.3

Seats

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 101 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Finnish Parliament.

101 seats needed for majority

Date	Polling Firm	KOK	SDP	PS	KESK	VAS	VIHR	SFP	KD	Others
19 Apr 2015	ScenariPolitici[note 1]	36	34	35	51	15	15	8	5	1
21 Mar 2015	Accuscore[note 2]	34	35	36	53	16	14	9	2	1
3 Nov 2014–19 Mar 2015	Taloustutkimus[note 3]	33	35	31	56	17	15	8	4	1
14 Mar 2015	Accuscore	34	34	36	55	16	14	8	2	1
26 Feb 2015	Accuscore	34	34	36	56	16	14	8	1	1
21 Feb 2015	Accuscore	35	34	35	57	15	14	8	1	1
23 Jan 2015	Accuscore	35	33	36	56	15	15	8	1	1
2 Jun–2 Dec 2014	Taloustutkimus	42	31	37	50	17	12	8	2	1

Results

Largest party by municipality:

  Centre Party

  Finns Party

  National Coalition Party

  Social Democratic Party

  Left Alliance

  Swedish People's Party/Åland Coalition

  Christian Democrats

Party	Votes	%	Seats	+/–
Centre Party	626,218	21.10	49	+14
Finns Party	524,054	17.65	38	–1
National Coalition Party	540,212	18.20	37	–7
Social Democratic Party	490,102	16.51	34	–8
Green League	253,102	8.53	15	+5
Left Alliance	211,702	7.13	12	–2
Swedish People's Party of Finland	144,802	4.88	9	0
Christian Democrats	105,134	3.54	5	–1
Åland Coalition	10,910	0.37	1	0
Pirate Party	25,086	0.85	0	0
Independence Party	13,638	0.46	0	0
Communist Party	7,529	0.25	0	0
Change 2011	7,442	0.25	0	0
Pirkanmaa Joint List	2,469	0.08	0	New
Liberals for Åland	1,277	0.04	0	0
Communist Workers' Party	1,100	0.04	0	0
Workers' Party	984	0.03	0	0
For the Poor	623	0.02	0	0
Independents	2,075	0.07	0	0
Total	2,968,459	100	200	0
Valid votes	2,968,459	99.48
Invalid/blank votes	15,397	0.52
Total votes cast	2,983,856	100
Registered voters in Finland/turnout in Finland	4,221,237	70.1
Registered voters overall/turnout overall	4,463,333	66.9
Source: Ministry of Justice, YLE

Popular vote
KESK			21.10%
KOK			18.20%
PS			17.65%
SDP			16.51%
VIHR			8.53%
VAS			7.13%
RKP			4.88%
KD			3.54%
Others			2.46%

Parliament seats
KESK			24.50%
PS			19.00%
KOK			18.50%
SDP			17.00%
VIHR			7.50%
VAS			6.00%
RKP			4.50%
KD			2.50%
Others			0.50%

Government formation

As the leader of the largest party, Juha Sipilä of Centre was tasked with forming the new government coalition. In early May Sipilä announced that he will seek to form a right-leaning majority coalition consisting of the three largest parties – the Centre Party, the Finns Party and the National Coalition Party.^[8] The coalition negotiations were successful and led to the formation of the Sipilä cabinet on 29 May.

Notes

1. Counted by ScenariPolitici, but based on various polls by different polling firms. Åland's MP is the other.
2. Counted by Accuscore, but based on various polls by different polling firms. Åland's MP is the other.
3. Not a single poll, but based on five separate Taloustutkimus polls. Åland's MP is the other.

References

1. "Finnish Parliamentary Elections 2015" (PDF). vaalit.fi. Retrieved 18 April 2015.
2. "Advance voting begins ahead of parliamentary elections". yle.fi. Yle News English. 8 April 2015. Retrieved 18 April 2015.
3. "People entitled to vote". vaalit.fi. Retrieved 18 April 2015.
4. Vasemmistoliitto lähtee hallituksesta YLE, 25 March 2014, accessed 18 September 2014.
5. Fennovoiman periaatepäätös hyväksyttiin, vihreät jättää hallituksen Helsingin Sanomat, 18 September 2014, accessed 18 September 2014.
6. Vihreät ulos hallituksesta – "Mieli on raskas ja pettynyt" YLE, 18 September 2014, accessed 18 September 2014.
7. Vaalipiiriuudistus lyötiin lukkoon eduskunnassa YLE, 6 March 2013, accessed 18 September 2014.
8. Sipilä opts for right-leaning government, YLE News 7 May 2015, accessed 7 May 2015.

External links

Media related to Parliamentary elections in Finland, 2015 at Wikimedia Commons